IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Where are we with renewable energy? International Energy Agency, Energy Data Centre Roberta Quadrelli UNECE Workshop on Present and Future of Sustainable Renewable Energy; 10th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development (IFESD), Bangkok, October 2019
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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Where are we with renewable energy?
International Energy Agency, Energy Data Centre
Roberta Quadrelli
UNECE Workshop on Present and Future of Sustainable Renewable Energy; 10th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development (IFESD), Bangkok, October 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
2019: fastest growth of renewable power additions in four years
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Solar PV expansion in electricity larger than all renewables combined
Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology
Distributed generation capacity growth makes the difference in solar PV’s leadership
Cumulative PV capacity could reach 1.1 TW and wind over 0.9 TW by 2023 under the accelerated case
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006-2011 2012-2017 2018-2023
GW
Wind Utility-scale PV Distributed PV HydropowerBioenergy Other renewables Accelerated case
IEA,
Renewables 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
Ocean
CSP
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Hydropower
Historical Forecast SDS
Renewable electricity generation by technology
PV prospects are optimistic for continuous growth; Bioenergy improved status due to policy
developments in China and India; Other technologies require more policy support.
Despite PV growth, renewable power is not “on track”
⚫ Solar PV
⚫ Onshore wind
⚫ Offshore wind
⚫ Hydropower
⚫ Bioenergy
⚫ Geothermal
⚫ CSP
⚫ Ocean
IEA, Tracking Clean
Energy Progress, 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
All sources of
flexibility
needed
6
5
2
1
Mobilise existing power system flexibility
4
3
Targeted
investment in
flexibility needed
Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017
Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment
in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response
Integration
phase
Wind and solar PV share of generation
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
India
China
United States
India
China
United States
European UnionEuropean Union
Germany
Germany
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Power grows fast, but modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant
Modern bioenergy is the only renewable source that can provide electricity, direct heat and transport
fuels. Two thirds of modern bioenergy heat is used in industry
100 200 300 400 500Mtoe
Total final energy consumption
from renewables, 2017
50%
9%
4%6% Modern
bioenergy
Hydropower
Wind
Solar PV
Other renewables
Total final energy consumption
from renewables by sector, 2017
Electricity fromrenewables
Electricity
Heat
Transport
31%
IEA,
Renewables 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Modern bioenergy set to lead renewables growth
Total renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by almost 30% over 2018-2023,
covering 40% of global energy demand growth
Total energy consumption growth of renewables over 2012-23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Modernbioenergy
Solar PV Wind Hydropower
Mtoe
2012-17 2018-23
IEA,
Renewables 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
RENEWABLES ARE NOT ON TRACK FOR 2030. EFFORTS NEED TO ACCELERATE IN TRANSPORT AND HEAT END-USES.
Renewable energy share of total final energy
consumption by end use and by scenario
2016
2030 - New Policies
Scenario
2030 – Sustainable
Development
Scenario
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Electricity
Heat
Transport
Share of total final energy consumption
Source: IEA, 2018
SDG7 Energy
Progress, 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Uneven policy efforts across sectors – electricity leading
REN21, GSR2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
IEA, World Energy
Investment, 2019
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Policy is key to provide framework to manage investment risks
“Financing our energy future requires policy makers to better
understand the risks faced by investors and to design and implement
policies that allow for the efficient allocation and management of
these risks…
Where governments … provide such frameworks, the private sector
responds.”
“Current market and policy signals are not incentivising the
major reallocation of capital to low-carbon power and
efficiency that would align with a sustainable energy future...”
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The key role of renewable energy policy – regional focus
IEA EU4Energy, 20
Renewable Energy
Recommendations
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
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