What’s on your horizon? ncvo third sector foresight [email protected].

what’s on your horizon?

ncvo third sector foresight [email protected]

our immediate future (next 90 mins)

what foresight is & isn’t

what’s on your horizon

how the 2010s will look in the rear view mirror

[who’s in the room?]

foresight is…understanding your changing world

(and so making better decisions)

spotting the storm before it hits (so buying you time to plan)

preparedness not prediction

foresight avoids problems later

foresight helps you choose a hill (so you can plan the right moves to get there)

you have to make time(or you’ll always be fire-fighting)

we should have seen it coming

but so should they (& others…)

‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent,

it’s the most adaptable’

‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent,

it’s the most adaptable’

so, how do we do foresight ?

it’s a three-part process (we can’t do it all today) :

what drivers may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries (for good or ill) ?

so what are the implications ?

now what to do about it ?

‘the future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’ william gibson

we make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) on 3s4.org.uk

a good old tool : PEST

4 mins, in twos

trends affecting you

/ your beneficiaries

by 2020

politics

(& legal)

economics

(& environment)

society technology

top drivers spotted by the sector

last 3 years

training in 9 regions (search VSNW onwww.3s4.org.uk)

6-month-long foresight coaching for 8 umbrella bodies (search them too!)

looking back from 2020

(permanent beta, please don’t sue)

the ‘teens’ began with desire for change [coalition, electoral reform]

‘there’s no more money’

the coalition response was part of a global

shift in how the state delivers: the 90s now

seem as long ago as the 70s did in 2010. why?

underlying ‘crunch4’ of economy, climate, resources

& stubborn, rising need

a rubik’s cube of new old words

big good

govt local

citizens society

the social falloutsplits cut many ways:

soaring expectations (eg EU & UK equal rights law)vdwindling receipts

white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus vyoung, diverse, poor, ‘undeserving’ migrants

in 2010, 36p of each £1 of charity income was from govt

cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures)ie: pre-ChangeUp investment

Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO

perpetual innovation

eg: social impact bonds

2010 pilot

peterborough prison

raised £5m

if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings

but many questions needed resolving. eg: what counts? who counts it?

social media impacted everything

not just comms & campaigns

the network effect caused explosive

growth. in 2010 twitter had 180m

users (after just 4 years)

(almost) the death of print media

in 2020 your mobile is the main way

you use the web

but the ‘IT poor’ are a real problem

like it or not, massive shift happens (click twice)

50+ global web philanthropy

exchanges in 2010 eg kiva

you are the philanthropist

direct relationship with

projects

by 2020, giving happens without the middle-man

‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we still called ‘community’)

small government (& small society?)

web-enabled micro-volunteering of

what Clay Shirky called your

‘cognitive surplus’

single equalities act

► ‘diversity mosaic’? not blending

is there still a role for generalist

organisations when people can source

everything direct?

looking back from 2020

what does all this mean for our near future?

a drive to local solutions,individual & community responsibility

grassroots swell in community organising – inspired by Obama (etc), facilitated by technology, driven by need

politicians of all hues try to conceptualise and harness this (NESTA ‘mass localism’)

but no consensus on:big / smallsociety / government

polls say we don’t think experts/govt know best, & support others taking responsibility and being more involved. but fewer of us want to be more involved!

Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Source: Citizenship Survey

there are so many ifs. for instance….

how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%)

Ipsos-MORI for OTS

we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity…

ncvo third sector foresight www.3s4.org.uk