What’s Next L.A.? Economic Conference, Residential Real Estate Section
Jul 16, 2015
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BEACONECONOMICS
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ind
ex (
Q1-
2000
= 1
00, S
A)
Q1-88 Q3-91 Q1-95 Q3-98 Q1-02 Q3-05 Q1-09
Los Angeles (MD) California United States
Source: 1010Data
Single-Family Home Prices, Q1-88 to Q4-09
Case-Shiller Index
50
100
150
200
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q4-09
New Home Sales
!7.6 0.8 0.5 0.0!42.1 !24.2 !19.0 !26.4!52.6 !37.1 !24.7 !36.5
8.2 5.5 1.3 4.6
50
100
150
200
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q4-09
New Home Median Home Prices
1 298, 000 1, 075 63 621 329, 975 1, 500 25 211 1, 500, 000 2, 249 23 182 1, 143, 114 1, 814 35 292 532, 214 1, 280 133 861 11, 000, 000 6, 100 35 52 431, 711 1, 737 28 261 263, 990 1, 281 95 941 335, 000 1, 770 10 51 798, 333 1, 647 18 52 906, 245 1, 754 119 651 415, 657 1, 661 70 706 1, 150, 741 1, 474 335 1851 530, 000 1, 673 114 11424 779, 784 1, 411 2, 387 1, 7862 1, 337, 130 1, 766 569 5071 267, 500 1, 380 30 301 239, 000 830 30 302 428, 329 1, 452 85 815 613, 201 1, 555 191 1271 835, 833 2, 206 45 301 269, 900 1, 598 166 1662 343, 611 969 239 1671 538, 857 1, 117 41 411 510, 000 1, 775 14 61 260, 000 1, 350 23 234 426, 320 1, 124 493 2801 399, 167 1, 941 8 21 381, 400 1, 610 18 33 464, 849 1, 462 119 711 435, 000 1, 588 20 173 532, 305 1, 444 117 555 334, 976 1, 805 292 2611 444, 900 1, 785 40 293 326, 543 1, 137 140 1251 359, 000 1, 520 12 62 332, 815 1, 566 148 1051 897, 667 1, 537 35 232 576, 300 1, 373 40 171 410, 000 2, 545 34 245 892, 433 1, 381 84 293 599, 897 1, 456 122 861 414, 490 1, 752 114 1051 281, 000 876 991 988
1 418, 500 2, 609 12 121 665, 000 2, 200 12 111 779, 933 3, 734 28 175 209, 516 1, 977 108 701 299, 000 1, 860 44 252 925, 060 3, 147 308 3065 277, 000 2, 836 770 7491 1, 495, 000 3, 429 6 51 995, 000 2, 358 16 151 425, 900 1, 149 138 1371 448, 750 3, 684 61 574 492, 088 2, 967 283 2651 499, 167 1, 963 18 41 1, 735, 000 5, 531 6 23 537, 129 2, 699 235 2273 1, 139, 584 4, 159 108 991 648, 888 2, 232 46 35
40
60
80
100
120
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q3-09
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
50
100
150
200
250
300
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q3-09
Existing Single-Family Home Median Prices
40
60
80
100
120
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q4-09
Existing Condominium Sales
50
100
150
200
250
300
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
)
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-90 to Q3-09
Existing Condominium Median Prices
2
4
6
8
10
12
Perc
enta
ge
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA)
Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA)
*These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed
Source: Property & Portfolio Research
Q1-90 to Q4-09
Apartment Vacancy Rate
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Gro
ss D
olla
rs p
er U
nit p
er M
onth
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA)
Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA)
*These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed
Source: Property & Portfolio Research
Q1-90 to Q4-09
Apartment Cost of Rent
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
Thou
sand
s of
Uni
ts
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA)
Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA)
*These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed
Source: Property & Portfolio Research
Q1-90 to Q4-09
Apartment Net Absorption
5
6
7
8
9
Perc
enta
ge
Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09
Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA)
Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA)
*These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed
Source: Property & Portfolio Research
Q1-90 to Q4-09
Apartment Cap Rates
65, 848 56, 432 14.3 !125103, 975 96, 385 7.3 10594, 050 85, 868 8.7 1
188, 311 173, 623 7.8 369175, 406 164, 005 6.5 17782, 581 78, 617 4.8 458
368, 967 343, 508 6.9 372
1, 079, 138 998, 203 7.5 1, 356
0
200
400
600
800
Inde
x (Q
1-20
00 =
100
, SA
and
sm
ooth
ed)
Q1-94 Q4-95 Q3-97 Q2-99 Q1-01 Q4-02 Q3-04 Q2-06 Q1-08 Q4-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-1994 to Q4-2009
Foreclosures
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Inde
x (Q
1-20
02 =
100
, SA
and
sm
ooth
ed)
Q1-02 Q4-02 Q3-03 Q2-04 Q1-05 Q4-05 Q3-06 Q2-07 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09
Los Angeles County California
Source: DataQuick
Q1-2002 to Q4-2009
Defaults
Actual Forecast
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Thou
sand
s of
Uni
ts
Q1-04 Q3-05 Q1-07 Q3-08 Q1-10 Q3-11 Q1-13Forecast by Beacon Economics
Los Angeles County, Q1-04 to Q4-13
Single-Family Building Permit Forecast
Actual Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
Thou
sand
s of
Uni
ts
Q1-04 Q3-05 Q1-07 Q3-08 Q1-10 Q3-11 Q1-13Forecast by Beacon Economics
Los Angeles County, Q1-04 to Q4-13
Multi-Family Building Permit Forecast
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