What’s Up with the...Mar 1975 - Jan 1980 Jul 1980 - Jul 1981 Nov 1982 - Jul 1990 Mar 1991 - Mar 2001 Jun 2009 to Current Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. U.S. Expansionary

What’s Up with the Washington

County Economy?

Lecia Parks Langston, Senior EconomistUtah Department of Workforce Services

How boring is it?

Alternative indicators?

Job growth hovering around

the 5-percent mark

Job growth hovering around

the 5-percent mark

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Washington County

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Three and one-half

years!

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

United States


Peaked in early 2015, but remains

relatively stable.


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%


Utah’s job growth second

only to our neighbor Idaho

in November 2015.

Utah


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Washington

Utah

United States


Hanging out in the

“zone.”


-10%-4%

-3%0%

0%1%

2%2%2%

3%3%3%3%

3%3%3%4%4%4%4%

5%5%5%

6%7%7%7%7%

8%

DuchesneUintah

PiuteEmery

CarbonMillardTooele

JuabMorgan

United StatesSevier

San JuanKane

GarfieldGrandCacheDavis

Salt LakeIron

State of UtahWeber

SanpeteWashington

SummitWayne

Box ElderUtah

BeaverRich

WasatchDaggett

Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry September 2014 to September 2015

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.

Moderate is better.

Most industries showing strong to moderate

growth.

Most industries showing strong to moderate

growth.

6

324

283

52

180

159

-2

54

172

351

858

159

123

93

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation/Warehousing

Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health/Social Services (Private)

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Total jobs up 2,800

Slower in retail trade and

leisure/hospitality while healthcare

speeds up

Washington County Change in Nonfarm Jobs; September 2014 to September 2015*

5%

4%

7%

10%

3%

8%

8%

8%

9%

2%

8%

1%

4%

-19%

7%

2%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

5%

2%

2%

Total

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Information




Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Washington County

Utah


Still seeing broad-based

expansion

Percent Change in Nonfarm JobsSeptember 2014 to September 2015*

5%

4%

7%

10%

3%

8%

8%

8%

9%

2%

8%

1%

2%

-12%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

1%

0%

Total

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Information




Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Washington County

United States

*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Percent Change in Nonfarm JobsSeptember 2014 to September 2015*

Average wage increased 3

percent in 2014.

Third Quarter 2015 up 3.3

percent.

Washington County Annual Change in Average Monthly Wage

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Full-employment before wages

increase

Washington County Year-Over Change in Average Monthly Wage

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Raw Smoothed


Quarterly data show

gains.

Unemployment about 4 percent.

Jobless rate expected to measure about 4 percent.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

State of Utah United States Washington County

Too low.

Rates bottomed

out in 2015

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Four-Week Moving Average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Week5

Week10

Week15

Week20

Week25

Week30

Week35

Week40

Week45

Week50

2013 2014 2015


No sign of major layoffs

U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing under 2 percent.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing just over 2 percent.

U.S Quarterly Change in Real GDP

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Quarter-to-Quarter Change Year-Over Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Same old, same old

Change in Real Gross Domestic Product


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

United States(Metropolitan Portion)

St. George, UT

Better than average

Change in Real GDP 2013-2014


2.3%

3.0%

3.9%

2.2%

3.6%

4.0%

United States (Metropolitan Portion)

Logan, UT-ID

Ogden-Clearfield, UT

Salt Lake City, UT

Provo-Orem, UT

St. George, UTBest of the Utah MSAs

In 2014, population growth

measured 2.9 percent.

In 2015, population

growth measured ?

10%

7%

8%

10%

8%

7%

5%

3%

4%

3%

4%4%

5%

6%

8%

7%

4%

3%

1%

2%

2% 2% 2%

3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%1

99

1

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Washington County

Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Is 3 percent the new normal?

Population Growth Estimates

152,000 in 2014

Permits issued for 1,400-plus homes.

Permits for roughly 1,500 homes.

Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits

980

1,266

2,114

2,697

2,0191,929

1,5141,687

1,519

1,267

1,740

1,995

2,678

3,7943,860

2,256

1,888

682605

870 846

1,257

1,667

1,440 1,500

Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

No sign of the excesses of the

bubble.

$16.1

$44.3

$32.0

$75.2

$51.7

$84.8

$30.7$37.4

$68.9

$39.6

$109.6

$43.6

$107.5

$118.2

$176.9

$143.4

$119.2

$46.8

$35.7

$69.4

$113.2

$42.4$44.1

$66.5

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Washington County

New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation

Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Millions of $Improvement in nonresidential

following residential’s lead.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Employment rising but not over-heated

Washington County Construction Employment

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unhurried

appreciation

in home

prices

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

Washington County Housing Price Index

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Washington County

Salt Lake City MSA

Las Vegas MSA

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

Rates of

appreciation

plateauing?

Year-over Change in Housing Price Index (HPI)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S.

Washington County

Percent of homes which are affordable to families with the median income.

Affordability

holding

steady.

Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.

Housing Opportunity Index

Washington County Homes Sold

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: Utah Association of Realtors.

Home sales

trending

upward.

Sales growing between 5-10 percent.

Sales growing between 5-10 percent.

-14%-13%

-11%

0%

4%

-1%

8%

4%

1%

8%7% 6%

9%

11%

8%

16%

9% 9%10%

4%

9%

7% 7%6%

9%10%

-14%

-12%

-9%

-2%

4%

2%

4%

6%

4%

7%

9%8% 9% 8%

6% 5%

3% 4% 4%2%

4%

6% 6%5%

4% 5%

1st Qtr2009

1st Qtr2010

1st Qtr2011

1st Qtr2012

1st Qtr2013

1st Qtr2014

1st Qtr2015

Washington County

Utah

Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

Five years of expansion.

Year-to-Year Change in Gross Taxable Sales

New Car and Light Truck Sales

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Washington County


Best quarter

ever.

Year-Over Change in New Car/Truck Sales

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Washington County

12 percent gain in third

quarter


Projected same level economic expansion with

stronger wage growth.

No significant sign of a slowdown

39

24

106

36

58

12

92

120

79

May 1954 - Aug 1957

Apr 1958 - Apr 1960

Feb 1961 - Dec 1969

Nov 1970 - Nov 1973

Mar 1975 - Jan 1980

Jul 1980 - Jul 1981

Nov 1982 - Jul 1990

Mar 1991 - Mar 2001

Jun 2009 to Current

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

U.S. Expansionary Periods in Months

Cumulative recession probability based on historical data*

Risks?

Spread of China’s economic slowdown

Stock Market Bubble

Last two recessions the result of asset bubbles

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Lon

g-Te

rm In

tere

st R

ate

s

Pri

ce-E

arn

ings

Rat

io (

CA

PE,

P/E

10

)

Price-EarningsRatio

Long-TermInterest Rates

20001981

1929

1901

1921

25.931966

Suggests market is

over-valued.

Stimulus Went on Too Long

In 2016, keep and eye on the indicators

Year-to-year nonfarm job growth rate.

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Don’t sweat the monthly data. Watch the trends.

jobs.utah.gov/wi

Economic Snapshot(Monthly)

Labor Market & Economy Blog

Current

jobs.utah.gov/wi (click on “County Snapshots”)

• Lecia Parks Langston

• Senior Economist, Utah Department of Workforce Services

• 435-688-3115

• [email protected]

What’s Up with the...Mar 1975 - Jan 1980 Jul 1980 - Jul 1981 Nov 1982 - Jul 1990 Mar 1991 - Mar 2001 Jun 2009 to Current Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. U.S. Expansionary

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