WHAT WOULD BE THE WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS CONTROL AND CONTROL AND SEQUESTRATION? SEQUESTRATION? Martin parry Martin parry Co-Chair, Working Group Co-Chair, Working Group II, II, IPCC IPCC
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WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS CONTROL AND SEQUESTRATION? Martin parry Co-Chair, Working Group II,
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WHAT WOULD BE THE WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS CONTROL AND CONTROL AND SEQUESTRATION?SEQUESTRATION?
Martin parryMartin parry
Co-Chair, Working Group II,Co-Chair, Working Group II,
IPCCIPCC
Global mean temperature predictionsGlobal mean temperature predictions
Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.
Global mean precipitation predictionsGlobal mean precipitation predictions
Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the green curves.cooling is shown in the green curves.
Change in annual temperatures for the 2050sChange in annual temperatures for the 2050s
The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COequivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions. of four model runs with different starting conditions.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Observed change in annual precipitation for the 2050sObserved change in annual precipitation for the 2050s
The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COa 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions.of four model runs with different starting conditions.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
IMPACTS UNDER NO IMPACTS UNDER NO MITIGATIONMITIGATION
Annual runoffAnnual runoff
Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.
University of Southampton
Population under extreme water stressPopulation under extreme water stress
Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in countries with extreme water stress.countries with extreme water stress.
0
40
80
120
2020s 2050s 2080s
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
University of Southampton
Crop yield change 2020s, )
2050s,2080s
2020s 2050s 2080s
% c
hang
e in
pric
es fr
om 1
990
base
line
10
8
6
4
2
0
–22020s 2080s 2020s 2080s
40004200
38003600340032003000280026002400
2050s 2050s
Cer
eal p
rodu
ctio
n (m
mt)
Referencescenario
Climate changescenario
2020s 2050s 2080sAdd
ition
al m
illio
ns o
f peo
ple
atris
k of
hun
ger
50454035302520151050
Additional people at risk of hunger under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).
Projected global cereal production for reference case and the climate change scenario.
Percentage change in global cereal prices under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).
People at risk from sea-level risePeople at risk from sea-level rise
Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise
scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise
scenario and evolving protection (right bar).scenario and evolving protection (right bar).
2050s2020s 2080s
700
400
500
600
100
300
200
0
% in
crea
se
Middlesex University / Delft Hydraulics
IMPACTS UNDER IMPACTS UNDER SOME/MUCH SOME/MUCH MITIGATIONMITIGATION
Emissions and concentrations of COEmissions and concentrations of CO22 from from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosunmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios
Global average temperature rise from unmitigated Global average temperature rise from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosand stabilising emission scenarios
The Cost of Stabilising COThe Cost of Stabilising CO22 Concentrations Concentrations
The effect of different global The effect of different global economic pathwayseconomic pathways
Regional enterprise: high Regional enterprise: high pop, mod. growth, (A2)pop, mod. growth, (A2)
Local stewardship: ‘semi’-Local stewardship: ‘semi’-sustainable dev, low pop sustainable dev, low pop
(B2)(B2)
A2 in 2050s B2A2 in 2050s B2
• Pop 11.3 billionPop 11.3 billion
• GDP 82 tr $GDP 82 tr $
• primary energy primary energy 970 GJ/yr970 GJ/yr
• carbon 16 GtC/yrcarbon 16 GtC/yr
• Pop 9.3 billionPop 9.3 billion
• GDP 110 tr $GDP 110 tr $
• primary energy primary energy 870 GJ/yr870 GJ/yr
• carbon 11 GtC/yrcarbon 11 GtC/yr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2020 2050 2080
Ad
dit
ion
al M
illio
ns
of
Peo
ple
A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship
Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios
Costs of 550 Stabilisation Costs of 550 Stabilisation assuming different development assuming different development pathwayspathways
($trillion)
Global Non-ann 1 Annex 1
A2 3 - 6 2 - 4 1 - 2
B2 2 - 4 2 - 3 c. 1
Conclusions : Conclusions :
• Stabn at 750 does not avoid most Stabn at 750 does not avoid most effects. effects.
• Stabn at 550 does, but at Stabn at 550 does, but at considerable cost (= c.20 times considerable cost (= c.20 times Kyoto reductions).Kyoto reductions).
• Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 pathway) needs also to be part of the pathway) needs also to be part of the ‘solution’‘solution’
-200
-180
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
2020 2050 2080
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
nn
es (
mm
t)
A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship
The Shortfall in Global Cereal Production for Reference Case and the SRES Scenarios
Millions at Risk in the 2050sMillions at Risk in the 2050s
• Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience to climate change: technology (eg GM), to climate change: technology (eg GM), engineering (eg water use efficiency), engineering (eg water use efficiency), institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg drought-proofing).drought-proofing).
• Invest especially in key vulnerable regions Invest especially in key vulnerable regions and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small islands; water, food, coastal settlement.islands; water, food, coastal settlement.
• Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:
Change in vegetation biomassChange in vegetation biomassfrom present day to the 2230sfrom present day to the 2230s
Changes in vegetation biomassChanges in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080sbetween the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
0 0.1 1 3 5 10 15kgC/m2
ITE Edinburgh
Unmitigated EmissionPresent Day
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
Changes in river runoffChanges in river runofffrom the present day to the 2230sfrom the present day to the 2230s
–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)
University of Southampton
c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm
c
Changes in water stressChanges in water stressfrom the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
Stressed country with decrease in stress
Country moves to stressed class
Stressed country with increase in stress
University of Southampton
Conclusions : 3Conclusions : 3
• Foster adaptation to avoid increased Foster adaptation to avoid increased inequality (autonomous adaptn=more inequality (autonomous adaptn=more unequal effects of climate change).unequal effects of climate change).
• Foster increased resilience (especially in Foster increased resilience (especially in the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg drought resistant/non-max yield crop drought resistant/non-max yield crop varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) large actions; c) promote stability (vs large actions; c) promote stability (vs growth?).growth?).