What we will discuss today l Some requirements for marketing research l Primary vs. secondary research l Market forecasting considerations.

What we will discuss today

Some requirements for marketing Some requirements for marketing researchresearch

Primary vs. secondary researchPrimary vs. secondary research

Market forecasting considerationsMarket forecasting considerations

Requirements for Conducting Marketing Research

SystematicSystematic

Decision OrientedDecision Oriented

ObjectiveObjective

SpecificSpecific

Research Plan

Types and MethodsTypes and Methods

Sample SelectionSample Selection

DataData

Research Methods

Observational ResearchObservational Research

Focus-Group ResearchFocus-Group Research

Survey ResearchSurvey Research

Scanner DataScanner Data

Research Instruments 1Questionnaires

Validity: Validity: are we measuring what we want to are we measuring what we want to measure?measure?

– Divergent ValidityDivergent Validity

– Convergent ValidityConvergent Validity

Reliability:Reliability: are the measures consistent over time and are the measures consistent over time and across situations?across situations?– Repeated MeasuresRepeated Measures– TestsTests

MultipleMultipleMeasuresMeasures

and now,and now,

a test!a test!

Foreign nationals should be allowed to hold jobs in Foreign nationals should be allowed to hold jobs in the United States.the United States.

StronglyStrongly StronglyStronglyAgreeAgree 1 2 3 4 5 6 71 2 3 4 5 6 7 DisagreeDisagree

Foreign governments should allow American citizensForeign governments should allow American citizensto hold jobs in their countries.to hold jobs in their countries.

StronglyStrongly StronglyStronglyAgreeAgree 1 2 3 4 5 6 71 2 3 4 5 6 7 DisagreeDisagree

Research Instruments 2

Multiple RegressionMultiple Regression: the relationship of one set of : the relationship of one set of variables on another set of variablesvariables on another set of variables

Discriminant AnalysisDiscriminant Analysis: what factors distinguish : what factors distinguish two populationstwo populations

Cluster AnalysisCluster Analysis: determine groups or clusters with : determine groups or clusters with similar characteristics in a populationsimilar characteristics in a population

Sampling 1

Sampling Unit Sampling Unit - the target population (who)- the target population (who)

Sample Size Sample Size - can be quite small (how many), depends - can be quite small (how many), depends on sampling procedureon sampling procedure

Sampling 2: Sampling Procedure

Probability Sample: Probability Sample: allows calculation of confidence allows calculation of confidence limits due to sampling errorlimits due to sampling error

– Simple Random SampleSimple Random Sample

– Stratified Random Sample: Stratified Random Sample: mutually exclusive mutually exclusive groupsgroups

– Cluster Sample: Cluster Sample: mutually exclusive areasmutually exclusive areas

Sampling 3:Sampling Procedure

Nonprobability SampleNonprobability Sample

– Convenience Sample: Convenience Sample: the most accessible samplethe most accessible sample

– Judgement Sample: Judgement Sample: use judgement as to which use judgement as to which population might make the best subjectspopulation might make the best subjects

– Quota Sample: Quota Sample: find and test certain # of subjects in find and test certain # of subjects in each of several categorieseach of several categories

A Sampling Problem

You know that most penYou know that most penmanufacturers have a high ratemanufacturers have a high rateof defective pens. of defective pens.

You receive a shipment ofYou receive a shipment of10,000 pens in a box. How 10,000 pens in a box. How can you determine the quality ofcan you determine the quality ofthis shipment?this shipment?

Primary Vs. Secondary Data

SpeedSpeed

ExpenseExpense

ExpertiseExpertise

Info AccessibilityInfo Accessibility

Data

CostlyCostly

Time ConsumingTime Consuming

Fit With NeedsFit With Needs

Sources of Market Information Books and PeriodicalsBooks and Periodicals Consultants and Research FirmsConsultants and Research Firms CustomersCustomers Internal RecordsInternal Records GrapevineGrapevine EmployeesEmployees Public records from competitorsPublic records from competitors SuppliersSuppliers

Death by data asphyxiation

Kipling on Secondary Data?

I keep six honest serving men,I keep six honest serving men,

(they taught me all I know),(they taught me all I know),

their names are their names are WhatWhat, and , and WhyWhy, and , and WhenWhen,,

and and HowHow and and WhereWhere and and WhoWho..

– ““The Elephant’s Child” by Rudyard KiplingThe Elephant’s Child” by Rudyard Kipling

Secondary Data: Some Questions to Consider

WhenWhen was it collected? was it collected? HowHow was it collected? was it collected? WhatWhat is the expected level of accuracy? is the expected level of accuracy? WhoWho collected the data? collected the data? WhereWhere was it collected; for what was it collected; for what

purpose?purpose?

Top ten developments expected to occur between 1969 to 1979

10. Sustained nuclear fusion to produce power10. Sustained nuclear fusion to produce power

9. Fast breeder reacters for power generation9. Fast breeder reacters for power generation

8. Nuclear-powered aircraft8. Nuclear-powered aircraft

7. Adhesive-bonded aircraft7. Adhesive-bonded aircraft

6. Superhigh-speed submersibles6. Superhigh-speed submersibles

5. Ultrahigh-speed ground transportation5. Ultrahigh-speed ground transportation

4. Superconducting coils for levitating speed vehicles4. Superconducting coils for levitating speed vehicles

3. Room temperature superconducting materials3. Room temperature superconducting materials

2. Manned exploration of Mars and Venus2. Manned exploration of Mars and Venus

1. Plastics as primary structures in buildings1. Plastics as primary structures in buildings

Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts

Ask fundamental questions about marketsAsk fundamental questions about markets– e.g., Who are the customers?e.g., Who are the customers?

– How large is the market?How large is the market?

– Is there a real benefit?Is there a real benefit?

– Does the innovation go against customs, culture, Does the innovation go against customs, culture, or established business practice?or established business practice?

– Are social trends moving toward or away from Are social trends moving toward or away from this market?this market?

Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts

Avoid technological wonderAvoid technological wonder

Stress cost-benefit analysisStress cost-benefit analysis

Consider multiple methods and multiple Consider multiple methods and multiple scenariosscenarios

What we discussed today

Some requirements for marketing researchSome requirements for marketing research

Primary vs. secondary researchPrimary vs. secondary research

Market forecasting considerationsMarket forecasting considerations