What needs to happen to cope with increased flood risk British Council: Rumania Turkey VC Merylyn Hedger Climate Change Policy Manager.

What needs to happen to cope with increased flood riskBritish Council: Rumania Turkey VCMerylyn HedgerClimate Change Policy Manager

Outline� Why increased flood risk?

� Solutions and Responses

� Barriers to overcome

Rhine at Mainz, Rhine at Mainz, GermanyGermany......two extremes in two extremes in one year !one year !

August 14th, 2003Gauge: 1.63 mMinimum 1949: 1.10 m

January 6th, 2003Gauge: 6.30 mMaximum 1882: 7.70 m

Elbe Flood 2002Elbe Flood 2002

Road betweenRoad betweenBitterfeld andBitterfeld andEilenburg, SaxonyEilenburg, Saxony

River flooding events 1998-2002 • About 100 (river) floods: 700 fatalities, displacement of half a million people and

25 billion EUR in insured economic losses

100

105

110

115

120

125

1980 1985 1990 1995

built-up area

1980 = 100

population density

Data-source: EEA, 2004

Temperature change: IPCC SRES scenarios

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

o C r

elat

ive

to 1

990

A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2

Precipitation change: HadCM3 A2aGlobal mean temperature change

Enter: Global climate change...

Source: Arnell (2004)

Projected precipitation changes in 2080Projected precipitation changes in 2080• Precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe but decrease in

southern Europe • More frequent droughts and intense precipitation events are likely

Data-source: Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2 scenario

Responses� flood warning schemes� different land management� build defences

� reduce greenhouse gases

National/Regional press advertising

Stencil and Phonebox (Bi-lingual)

Room for rivers – floodplain reactivation

Investigation extended to 30 possible retention areas

Driving forces of developing new approach

� Growing demands in the floodplains for an increased flood safety

� Changing land use preferences� upon integration with the EU

extensive farming will be preferred instead of intensive on some 1 million hectares of land

� growing awareness of nature conservation (i. e. renaturalisation of river corridors)

� Different flood safety to meet different flood risks

Paull Holme Strays - the first tide enters the site

Paull Holme Strays: the breach

200 years of Rising Sea Levels at Canvey Island

The same building in 2002: the defences, raised following the 1953 flood and raised further in the 1980s are now level with the roof eaves

The Lobster Smack in 1902: the defences were described at the time as being “practically invulnerable”

??? 2100 defences

The future view for London?

Addressing the causes:reducing fossil fuel emissions

Problems to address

� Political will- need to get public support- How??

� People need more information- what sorts?

� Where should priorities for action be??