What is the future of rabies control in Europe? How models can help GC Smith, HH Thulke, AR Fooks, M Artois, DW Macdonald, D Eisinger, T Selhorst
Mar 27, 2015
What is the future of rabies control in Europe?How models can help
GC Smith, HH Thulke, AR Fooks, M Artois,
DW Macdonald, D Eisinger, T Selhorst
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Reduced cost vaccine strategy ?
• Baits are expensive
• EU fund greater proportion or
will less baits work?
• Current bait density = 70% immunity
• Recent work suggests 60%= 1/3 reduction in baits
• This needs to be tested in the field.
Raccoon dog rabies ?
• Raccoon dogs spreading west
• Raccoon dog density increasing
• Raccoon dogs make rabies epizootic more intense
(equivalent to increasing fox density)
• If no hibernation (climate change):rabies harder to control
• Is a new vaccine strategy required?
• Examine cost effectiveness.
Vaccinate to protect border ?
• Push vaccination across all of Asia (wildlife rabies)
• Stop at some border
• Not consider politics
• Do need to examine economics !
Optimum vaccine strategy ?
Rabies free Rabies endemic
Optimum vaccine strategy ?
Rabies free Rabies endemic
Optimum vaccine strategy ?
Rabies free Rabies endemic
Best emergency vaccine strategy ?
• EU recommendation
• 25-50km radius of vaccination
• Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density
• Emergency strategy effectively untried
• Theoretical density limit where vaccine works.
Effect of single baiting campaign
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0.6
0.8
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0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
Fox Density (familes km )
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b.
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era
dic
ati
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Best emergency vaccine strategy ?
• EU recommendation
• 25-50km radius of vaccination
• Increased fox density & Increased raccoon dog density
• Emergency strategy effectively untried
• Theoretical density limit where vaccine works
• What is the limit?Do we exceed it anywhere?
Conclusion
• Is a new vaccine strategy required?
• Examine economics of rabies control
• Test any new strategy in the field
• Is current emergency strategy OK?
• What is the density limit for vaccination ?
• Current models can answer these questions