What is Sustainability when on the “Climate Roller Coaster”! Dr John Russell La Trobe University, Bendigo. 22 th February 2007 Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability.

What is Sustainability when What is Sustainability when on the “Climate Roller on the “Climate Roller

Coaster”!Coaster”!Dr John RussellDr John Russell

La Trobe University, Bendigo.La Trobe University, Bendigo.2222thth February 2007 February 2007

Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability Conference Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability Conference Co author Kevin LongCo author Kevin Long

OUTLINEOUTLINE

How Bad is it?How Bad is it?

The “Climate Roller Coaster”!The “Climate Roller Coaster”!

What the papers say and positive What the papers say and positive responsesresponses

How Bad is it?How Bad is it?

LocalLocal

RegionalRegional

Australian and New ZealandAustralian and New Zealand

Global Drivers/Symptoms – El NinoGlobal Drivers/Symptoms – El Nino

Typical Dam in FarmlandTypical Dam in Farmland

Research Findings – Lake Eppalock Research Findings – Lake Eppalock Catchment – Location & WeatherCatchment – Location & Weather

Figure 1 The Goulburn-Murray Water Region in North Central Victoria showing the Headworks and Extent of Irrigation.

Map published by G-M Water

Research FindingsResearch Findings

Weather Systems and Weathering Weather Systems and Weathering CyclesCycles

Wet and Dry Sequences in the Wet and Dry Sequences in the Bendigo RegionBendigo Region

Wet and Dry Sequences in the Wet and Dry Sequences in the Bendigo RegionBendigo Region

Campaspe River Inflow to Lake Campaspe River Inflow to Lake EppalockEppalock

Decreasing annual inflow

Dry Sequence

1878 to1952

Wet Sequence

1952 to 1996

Dry

Campaspe River 12.02.2007Campaspe River 12.02.2007

Campaspe River DownstreamCampaspe River Downstream

Comparison of Wet & Dry Comparison of Wet & Dry SequencesSequences

Table 1 - A Summary of the Relationship between the Average Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe and Inflow into Lake Eppalock. Note: 1mm of effective runoff equates to approximately 1% of reservoir fill. (Goulburn-Murray Water, 2005)

Period Average Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe

Average Effective Rainfall (runoff) Across Catchment

Average Inflow to Lake Eppalock ML/Year

Average % of Inflow to Lake Eppalock/year

Wet Sequence 1952 to 1996

680 mm 66 mm 206,000 66%

Dry Sequence 1997 to 2006

560 mm 21 mm 65,000 21%

Dry Sequence 2001 to 2006

526 mm 7mm 25,000 7%

Eppalock Inflows Actual v ExpectedEppalock Inflows Actual v Expected

Figure 4 Eppalock Inflow Actual May 2000 to October 2005 and Average Inflow Envelope for Wet Sequence 1954 – 1996 (Zero inflow for 2006 as at 8th October 2006)

Figure 5. Shows the Combined Seasonal Inflow and Drawdown on Lake Eppalock from July 1996 to July 2006: In Hindsight a Gambol that did not Payoff.

Australian Rainfall AnomaliesAustralian Rainfall Anomalies

Figure 6 Australian Rainfall Anomalies – 36 months. Departures from the 36 month mean (1961 – 1990 base period)

Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at BendigoBendigo

Table 1 Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Bendigo

Sample Span (Years)Loss of Rainfall (mm/year)

1950 - 2003 110

1970 - 2005 140

2003 - 2006 160

First Prime Minister’s BriefingFirst Prime Minister’s Briefing

Figure 7 Showing the Total Average inflows into the MDB - Comparing Drought Periods. Current inflow for 2006 shown in red.

First Prime Minister’s Briefing First Prime Minister’s Briefing 77thth November 2006 November 2006

Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.

First Prime Minister’s Briefing First Prime Minister’s Briefing 77thth November 2006 November 2006

Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.

Research Findings- Global Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainities Major Weather Uncertainities Major

FactorsFactorsThe level of net radiation flux reaching The level of net radiation flux reaching the earth from the sun the earth from the sun global dimming due to air-travelglobal dimming due to air-travelglobal pollution of particulates smaller global pollution of particulates smaller than 2.5 micronthan 2.5 micronglobal warming gases due to human global warming gases due to human activity andactivity andThe rapid changing of carbon sinks. I.e. The rapid changing of carbon sinks. I.e. loss of forests, reduction of soil carbon loss of forests, reduction of soil carbon etc.etc.

Research Findings- Global Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainties Weather Uncertainties Major Major

SymptomsSymptomsA weakening of trade windsA weakening of trade windsmelting of glaciers, permafrost, melting of glaciers, permafrost, Arctic and Antarctic iceArctic and Antarctic iceslowing of the Gulf-streamslowing of the Gulf-streamextremes in droughts, fires, floodsextremes in droughts, fires, floodsacidification of the oceans andacidification of the oceans andThe maintenance of abnormally The maintenance of abnormally warm South China and Philippines warm South China and Philippines Seas.Seas.

Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino Event La Nina EventEl Nino Event La Nina Event

Classic La Nina eventClassic El Nino event

Figure 9 Comparison of Classical El Nino and La Nina Events

Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino La NinaEl Nino La Nina

Figure 10 Classic paths of Cyclones resultant from either El Nino or La Nina Events

Top 10 El Nino EventsTop 10 El Nino Events

Figure 11 Top 10 El Nino Events of the Twentieth Century incorporating Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomalies

Trends of Annual Rainfall Trends of Annual Rainfall 1970 - 20051970 - 2005

Figure 13 Trend of Annual Rainfall1970 - 2005 (mm/10years)

““The Climate Roller Coaster”!The Climate Roller Coaster”!

““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 500,000 Years500,000 Years

Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past 420000 years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial-interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.

The Earth as a System

Note the high degree of self-regulation in the metabolism of the Earth System. From Steffen et al. 2004

Petit et al. 1999

The Vostok Ice Core: Glacial-Interglacial Cycling

““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 100,000 years100,000 years

Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past 420000 years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial-interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.

““Climate Roller Coaster” Climate Roller Coaster” 1000 years1000 years

Figure 19 1000 years of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures in a Degrees Centigrade.

Outline of Positive Responses and Outline of Positive Responses and what the papers say!what the papers say!

What follows,What follows,Our Time FramesOur Time Frames

What the ‘papers’ say,What the ‘papers’ say,

Advantages of Biological Farming in Advantages of Biological Farming in times of soil moisture stresstimes of soil moisture stress

Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for our regional industriesPotential for our regional industries

Bio-Diesel power our region!Bio-Diesel power our region!

Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industriesour region industries

What the ‘papers’ sayWhat the ‘papers’ say

Advantages of biological farming in Advantages of biological farming in times of soil-moisture stresstimes of soil-moisture stress

Carbon Credits – Soil Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for Sequestration Potential for

our regional industriesour regional industries

Bio-Diesel power to our region!Bio-Diesel power to our region!

Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industriesfor our region industries

1.1. 1 tonne fodder factory/day equivalent to 1 tonne fodder factory/day equivalent to 40 acres of irrigated permanent pasture.40 acres of irrigated permanent pasture.

2.2. 5 kg fodder per cow … 25% daily intake.5 kg fodder per cow … 25% daily intake.3.3. Water efficiency ratio 100 : 1Water efficiency ratio 100 : 14.4. 100 kg barley produces 1000 kg fodder 100 kg barley produces 1000 kg fodder

grass.grass.5.5. Indoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 Indoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2

tonnes/day - $85000 upwardstonnes/day - $85000 upwards6.6. Outdoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 Outdoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2

tonnes/day - $20000tonnes/day - $20000

And the best of luck - goodbyeAnd the best of luck - goodbye