What is Social Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe? Stephen Whitefield [email protected] and Matthew Loveless [email protected].

What is Social Inequality in Central and Eastern What is Social Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe?Europe?

Stephen WhitefieldStephen [email protected]

and and Matthew LovelessMatthew Loveless

[email protected]

EUREQUAL: EUREQUAL: http://eurequal.politics.ox.ac.uk/

Paper presented at CEELBAS Conference Paper presented at CEELBAS Conference Session, ‘Emerging dimensions of social Session, ‘Emerging dimensions of social

inequality in Russia and Eastern Europe’, St inequality in Russia and Eastern Europe’, St Antony’s College, Oxford, December 13, 2008Antony’s College, Oxford, December 13, 2008

Work in Progress – Please DO NOT CITEWork in Progress – Please DO NOT CITE

What is ‘social inequality’?What is ‘social inequality’?

A vague concept compared with work on A vague concept compared with work on ……• Income inequality (Milanovic, 1998; Atkinson, 1999)Income inequality (Milanovic, 1998; Atkinson, 1999)• Inequality of wealth (Cagetti and De Nardi, 2008)Inequality of wealth (Cagetti and De Nardi, 2008)• Labour market segmentation, e.g. by gender, ethnicity Labour market segmentation, e.g. by gender, ethnicity

(Schrover et al, 2007)(Schrover et al, 2007)• Welfare status (Layte and Whelan, 2003)Welfare status (Layte and Whelan, 2003)• Skills and training (Brown et al, 2008)Skills and training (Brown et al, 2008)• Health inequality (Marmot and Wilkinson, 1999)Health inequality (Marmot and Wilkinson, 1999)• Housing inequality (Morris and Winn, 1990)Housing inequality (Morris and Winn, 1990)

Social inequality as a package of Social inequality as a package of inequalitiesinequalities

The ‘CEELBAS’ working definitionThe ‘CEELBAS’ working definition

““Social inequality refers to the ways in which Social inequality refers to the ways in which socially-defined categories of persons (according socially-defined categories of persons (according to characteristics such as gender, age, ‘class’ to characteristics such as gender, age, ‘class’ and ethnicity) are differentially positioned with and ethnicity) are differentially positioned with regard to access to a variety of social ‘goods’, regard to access to a variety of social ‘goods’, such as the labour market and other sources of such as the labour market and other sources of income, the education and healthcare systems, income, the education and healthcare systems, and forms of political representation and and forms of political representation and participation. These and other forms of social participation. These and other forms of social inequality are shaped by a range of structural inequality are shaped by a range of structural factors, such as geographical location or factors, such as geographical location or citizenship status, and are often underpinned by citizenship status, and are often underpinned by cultural discourses and identities defining, for cultural discourses and identities defining, for example, whether the poor are ‘deserving’ or example, whether the poor are ‘deserving’ or ‘undeserving’.”‘undeserving’.”

http://www.ceelbas.ac.uk/research/socialinequality

A Eurequal working definition of social A Eurequal working definition of social inequality…inequality…

… … the structure of advantage and the structure of advantage and disadvantage in the life chances and life disadvantage in the life chances and life outcomes of individuals and families outcomes of individuals and families (health, happiness, income, wealth, social (health, happiness, income, wealth, social and cultural opportunities, etc) that are and cultural opportunities, etc) that are significantly shaped by citizens’ social and significantly shaped by citizens’ social and economic locations and identities (labour economic locations and identities (labour market situation, social class, education, market situation, social class, education, gender, ethnicity, age, citizenship, etc), by gender, ethnicity, age, citizenship, etc), by other important distributional mechanisms other important distributional mechanisms (social networks -corruption, blat’; (social networks -corruption, blat’; government institutions and policies), and government institutions and policies), and by national characteristics (economic and by national characteristics (economic and political development).political development).

The problem of packages in Central and The problem of packages in Central and Eastern EuropeEastern Europe

Some research points to the fragmenting impact of Some research points to the fragmenting impact of Communist power and command economies on the Communist power and command economies on the packaging of advantages and disadvantagespackaging of advantages and disadvantages• Housing (Szelenyi, 1987)Housing (Szelenyi, 1987)• Class fragmentation (Kende and Strmiska, 1987)Class fragmentation (Kende and Strmiska, 1987)• Communist-era political economy (Bunce, 1985; Communist-era political economy (Bunce, 1985;

Sabel and Stark, 1982)Sabel and Stark, 1982) The transitional character of markets and democracy The transitional character of markets and democracy

may also limit the emergence of ‘packages’ that one may also limit the emergence of ‘packages’ that one might expect in established market democracies might expect in established market democracies (Kitschelt, 1992)(Kitschelt, 1992)

The differential character of market and democratic The differential character of market and democratic development in the region might lead us to expect development in the region might lead us to expect differences in the form and extent of packagingdifferences in the form and extent of packaging

Issues arisingIssues arising

Is there a social inequality package? How do Is there a social inequality package? How do packages vary across countries?packages vary across countries?

Does our measure of social inequality packages Does our measure of social inequality packages correlate in appropriate ways with some other correlate in appropriate ways with some other predicted outcomes of social advantage and predicted outcomes of social advantage and disadvantage? disadvantage?

What kinds of people do well or badly in terms of What kinds of people do well or badly in terms of the package of social inequality? How do the the package of social inequality? How do the determinants of social advantage vary across determinants of social advantage vary across countries?countries?

What kinds of countries are more or less socially What kinds of countries are more or less socially advantaged?advantaged?

How unequal are countries in terms of the How unequal are countries in terms of the distribution of advantages and disadvantages? distribution of advantages and disadvantages? And what kinds of countries are more unequal And what kinds of countries are more unequal than others?than others?

The Eurequal surveysThe Eurequal surveys

Conducted in 13 countries in Spring, 2007Conducted in 13 countries in Spring, 2007• Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia,

Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, UkraineRomania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine

National probability samples of between National probability samples of between 1000 and 2000 respondents1000 and 2000 respondents

The packaging of social advantage and The packaging of social advantage and disadvantagedisadvantage

To what extent do the following ‘arenas’ in which To what extent do the following ‘arenas’ in which goods may be differentially distributed correlate goods may be differentially distributed correlate with one another? As one package, none, or with one another? As one package, none, or many?many?• IncomeIncome• PossessionsPossessions• SavingsSavings• Employment benefitsEmployment benefits• Housing situationHousing situation• HealthHealth• Health accessHealth access• Educational accessEducational access• Cultural accessCultural access

Table 1. Table 1. FactorFactorLoadingsLoadings

Income3Income3 SavingsSavings Access:Access:HealthHealth

Access:Access:EducationEducation

Access:Access:CultureCulture

HealthHealth House Situ.House Situ. BenefitsBenefits StuffStuff Eigenvalue Eigenvalue (difference)(difference)

NN

AggregateAggregate 0.37560.3756 0.38210.3821 0.80920.8092 0.82940.8294 0.81240.8124 0.45000.4500 0.39570.3957 0.13510.1351 0.60700.60703.043.04

(2.68)(2.68) 84198419

BelarusBelarus 0.48830.4883 0.26190.2619 0.79340.7934 0.81750.8175 0.82460.8246 0.22420.2242 0.15080.1508 0.20170.2017 0.51540.51542.662.66

(2.26)(2.26) 669669

BulgariaBulgaria 0.56000.5600 0.34990.3499 0.77860.7786 0.78030.7803 0.76000.7600 0.30300.3030 0.29580.2958 0.04990.0499 0.60920.60922.782.78

(2.45)(2.45) 433433

Czech RepCzech Rep 0.55570.5557 0.35410.3541 0.59610.5961 0.73890.7389 0.71740.7174 0.15520.1552 0.39260.3926 0.32910.3291 0.69470.69472.622.62

(2.30)(2.30) 587587

EstoniaEstonia 0.36340.3634 0.38680.3868 0.77740.7774 0.80610.8061 0.80710.8071 0.07350.0735 0.39030.3903 0.12490.1249 0.55140.55142.66 2.66

(2.19)(2.19) 604604

HungaryHungary 0.41480.4148 0.32130.3213 0.73570.7357 0.78750.7875 0.77860.7786 0.16580.1658 0.40750.4075 0.16640.1664 0.45270.45272.472.47

(1.95)(1.95) 479479

LatviaLatvia 0.51380.5138 0.38490.3849 0.83430.8343 0.80400.8040 0.83780.8378 0.40010.4001 0.40770.4077 0.27960.2796 0.57680.57683.193.19

(2.74)(2.74) 660660

LithuaniaLithuania 0.52500.5250 0.39050.3905 0.88260.8826 0.90450.9045 0.86860.8686 0.25510.2551 0.43950.4395 0.24300.2430 0.61190.61193.473.47

(3.09)(3.09) 561561

MoldovaMoldova 0.39540.3954 0.33250.3325 0.74670.7467 0.74030.7403 0.71970.7197 0.41730.4173 0.51570.5157 0.02070.0207 0.55660.55662.642.64

(2.14)(2.14) 566566

PolandPoland 0.60760.6076 0.47820.4782 0.51710.5171 n/an/a 0.55870.5587 0.11090.1109 0.59630.5963 0.15930.1593 0.60440.60441.941.94

(1.72)(1.72) 978978

RomaniaRomania 0.53940.5394 0.30480.3048 0.80810.8081 0.86080.8608 0.84410.8441 0.26180.2618 0.38260.3826 0.24750.2475 0.66570.66573.213.21

(2.77)(2.77) 969969

RussiaRussia 0.44980.4498 0.29810.2981 0.83810.8381 0.83590.8359 0.78750.7875 0.26670.2667 0.26860.2686 0.08230.0823 0.49240.49242.712.71

(2.41)(2.41) 11901190

SlovakiaSlovakia 0.40700.4070 0.30790.3079 0.63510.6351 0.73680.7368 0.69180.6918 -0.039-0.039 0.30840.3084 0.26400.2640 0.58560.5856 2.192.19(1.74)(1.74)

649649

UkraineUkraine 0.31520.3152 0.27620.2762 0.84670.8467 0.86160.8616 0.85330.8533 0.3480.348 0.27730.2773 0.00250.0025 0.53790.53792.852.85

(2.67)(2.67) 10521052

Figure 1. Percentage contribution of each Figure 1. Percentage contribution of each factor loading to factor as a whole (pooled factor loading to factor as a whole (pooled

and by country)and by country)

What does the package of advantage and What does the package of advantage and disadvantage predict in terms of other disadvantage predict in terms of other

aspects household economic aspects household economic circumstances?circumstances?

External validation exercise for our factorExternal validation exercise for our factor If our factor picks up differences in the If our factor picks up differences in the

distribution of advantage and distribution of advantage and disadvantages, then it should clearly be disadvantages, then it should clearly be associated with a range of other associated with a range of other important household economic important household economic circumstancescircumstances• Material deprivationMaterial deprivation• Perceptions of changes in living standardsPerceptions of changes in living standards• Ability to buy medicine or pay utility billsAbility to buy medicine or pay utility bills

Table 2. Regression of assessments of social inequality factor on to aspects of household economic circumstances

b (se) Material deprivation

OLS

Comparison of Living Standards

OLS

Enough money to

buy medicine

Logit

Enough money to pay utility

billsLogit

Social inequality factor

0.63***(0.01)

1.01***(0.01)

1.52***(0.04)

1.29***(0.04)

Constant 2.86***(0.01)

3.33***(0.01)

1.60***(0.03)

2.07(0.04)

R2 .41 .60 .24 .18

N 8351 8398 8395 8395

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

What kinds of countries are advantaged or What kinds of countries are advantaged or disadvantages?disadvantages?

Differences across the regionDifferences across the region• Russia and Ukraine are most disadvantaged on Russia and Ukraine are most disadvantaged on

average, while Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary and average, while Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary and Slovakia are most advantagedSlovakia are most advantaged

Differences in economic and political Differences in economic and political developmentdevelopment• Growing countries have on average more advantagesGrowing countries have on average more advantages• Politically freer countries are also more advantagedPolitically freer countries are also more advantaged

Differences by levels of inequalityDifferences by levels of inequality• More unequal countries (by comparison of gini’s) are More unequal countries (by comparison of gini’s) are

also disadvantagedalso disadvantaged

ConclusionsConclusions

There is a package – one package of social advantage and There is a package – one package of social advantage and disadvantagedisadvantage

The package is strongly predictive of important household The package is strongly predictive of important household economic outcomes and perceptions economic outcomes and perceptions

The ‘usual suspects’ do well and badly and differences The ‘usual suspects’ do well and badly and differences across countries appear relatively weak in terms of the across countries appear relatively weak in terms of the social determinants of advantage and disadvantagesocial determinants of advantage and disadvantage

Countries that are more democratic, grow economically Countries that are more democratic, grow economically and are more egalitarian have populations that are on and are more egalitarian have populations that are on average more advantaged than countries that are not average more advantaged than countries that are not

In other words … Central and Eastern Europe does not In other words … Central and Eastern Europe does not appear to present differently than states elsewhere …appear to present differently than states elsewhere …

… … although until we can do the same analysis elsewhere although until we can do the same analysis elsewhere we can’t be sure.we can’t be sure.

Still, the analysis of social inequality has a promising Still, the analysis of social inequality has a promising future.future.