What is Happening to the Family in South Africa

Resilience and changein the context of social transformation

What is happening to the family in South Africa?

Dan OD Chimere-Dan

Africa Strategic Research Corporation474 Phoenix Parkway Street, Kyalami 1684, Tel: 011 468 1010.

Email: General: [email protected]: Website www.africastrategic.comDirect: 071 646 3541: Email: [email protected]

Notes

1. In this work, I direct attention to the family (not necessarily individuals or all types of households) as a unit of quantitative analysis with data that answer selected questions about recent changes in its types and size in South Africa.

2. With due recognition of intellectual contestation surrounding its definition and meaning, I worked operationally with the concept of the family as a quantifiable social and demographic unit comprising two or more people who are related by marriage, birth or legal adoption. This is not a value position but a practical necessity in view of the nature and quality of currently available statistics.

3. My analysis is based on national censuses (10% samples from 1996, 2001, 2011), 2007 Community Survey, 2014 Household Survey and national database of registered marriages (2006-2013) and births (1998-2014). I also explored other sets of data from the General Household Surveys (2008-2013) and from the 2008-2013 waves of the National Income Dynamic Survey in the process of validating some results presented here.

4. Unless otherwise stated, all statistics are my original calculations and estimates. Variations in the quality of data used in this analysis may result in minor differences with comparable official and other estimates.

5. I welcome comments and suggestions based on these preliminary results.

Households in SA

Recent official statistics estimated 15.6 million households in South Africa in 2014, a big increase of 44% from the number in 2002.(Statistics South Africa. PO318, May 2015)

These numbers suggest that while the average household size in South Africa is declining

(see Figure 9), the number of households is increasing.

Change in family type

The family remains the dominant living arrangement in South Africa.

7 out of 10 households in 2014 were families.

Family households 70%

Other types of household

30%

Figure 1. Types of households in South Africa2014

Table 1. Recent trends in household types in South Africa

1996-2014

Household type

% of all household

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

Couple family households 30.8 33.3 33.4 27.6 27.3

Single family households 47.9 38.3 39.8 35.6 42.4

All family households 78.7 71.7 73.2 63.2 69.7

Persons living alone 16.1 21.7 20.1 29.4 22.4

All other living arrangements 5.2 6.7 6.7 7.3 8

All other types of household 21.3 28.4 26.8 36.7 30.4

All types of household 100 100 100 100 100

• The share of families as a percent of all types of household declined by 11.4% from 1996 to 2014

79

21

70

30

Family households All other types of household

Figure 2. Change (%) in household types, 1996 and 2014

1996 2014

A big source of recent change in the family is the difference in trends between couple

families and single families.

Single families as a share of all families increased by 37% from 1996 to 2014.

On the other hand, couple families as a share of all families decreased by 31% from 1996 to 2014.

54.7

44.5 43.441.2 37.8

45.3

55.5 56.658.8 62.2

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

Figure 3. Recent trends (%) in couple and single families1996-2014

Couple family Single family

38.7

16.0 16.928.424.9

12.9 15.4

46.8

-35.7

-19.4-8.9

64.8

Coupe with/withoutchildren (nuclear)

Couple with relations(extended)

Single family withchildren

Single family withrelations (extended)

Figure 4. Change (%) in different family types 1996-2014

1996 2014 % change

• Multi-generation families as a percent of all families recorded a small increase from 26% in 2001 to 30.7% in 2011.

• This increase resulted from a significant growth by inter-generation families from 13% in 2001 to 23.7% in 2011.

• Skip generation families as a percent of all families declined slightly from 12.2% in 2001 to 8% in 2011.

• The estimated percentages of adoptive and blended families in 2001 and 2011 are small and indicated no big differences in the 10 years between the censuses.

26.0

12.2 13.8

2.0 1.1

70.9

30.7

8.0

22.7

1.0 1.2

67.1

Multi-generation Skip generation Inter-generation Adoptive Blended All other family

Figure 5. Change in other family types in South Africa 2001 and 2011

2001 2011

53.8

31.2 29.9

12.5

43.1

19.6

63.3

32.6

56.5

33.8

% withchildren0-17 yrs

% withchildren0-5 yrs

% withchildren0-17 yrs

% withchilren0-5 yrs

% withchildren0-17 yrs

% withchilren0-5 yrs

% withchildren0-17 yrs

% withchilren0-5 yrs

% withchildren0-17 yrs

% withchilren0-5 yrs

South Africa White Indian Coloured African

Figure 6. Percent of families with children 0-5 years and 0-17 years, 2014

Table 2. Two broad groups of family types, 1996-2014

Family typeYear

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

1 Couple family 54.7 44.5 43.4 41.2 37.8

2 Single family 45.3 55.5 56.6 58.8 62.2

All 100 100 100 100 100

Table 3. Four family types in South Africa, 1996-2014

Family type

% in Year

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

1 Couple family with or without children 38.7 29.2 29.0 27.3 24.9

2 Couple family extended 16.0 15.4 14.4 13.9 12.9

3 Single family with children 16.9 14.4 14.2 15.3 15.4

4 Single family extended 28.3 41.0 42.4 43.5 46.8

All family types 100 100 100 100 100

54

26

65 60

39 36

50 49

3039 36

31

43

64

51

70

58

7065 63

38

-18

97

4740

53 48

67

44 44

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Figure 7. Percent change in single families1996-2014

-23-31

-43 -40 -40-32 -28

-42-38

-25

-44-36

-22-16

-7

-94

-65

-42-35 -35 -31

13

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-52

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-22

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Figure 8. Percent change in couple families1996-2014

Change in family size

• National average household size in 2014 was 3.5

• Average household size declined by 24% from 1996 to 2014

• Average family size declined by 18%• Average non-family households declined by 31%

4.6

4.0 3.93.6 3.5

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

Figure 9. Average household size, South Africa 1996-2014

3.64.1

3.3 3.2

4.0

3.0 3.03.5 3.7

3.2

3.93.5

4.2

3.12.6

2.22.6

3.03.5

3.84.1

3.2

3.94.3

4.0

3.43.0 3.1

3.4

4.1

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Figure 10. Differences in average household size2014

5.1

6.1

1.0

5.0 5.3

1.0

4.7 5.0

1.0

4.85.5

1.0

4.2 4.2

1.0

Family households Non-family households Persons living alone

Figure 11. Average family size of by household type1996-2015

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

5.2 5.25.1 4.84.7 4.64.8 4.64.0 4.3

Couple family Single family

Figure 12. Recent trend in family size1996-2014

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

% Change in the average size of four family types

• Simple couple family declined by 14% from 1996-2014• Extended couple family declined by 36% from 1996-2014

• Simple single family declined by 10% from 1996 to 2014• Extended single family declined by 22% from 1996 to 2014

4.2

7.6

4.2

5.8

3.9

7.3

3.4

5.3

3.7

6.8

3.3

5

3.6

5.7

3.1

5.1

3.6

4.9

3.84.5

Simple couple family Extended couple family Simple single family Extended single family

Figure 13. Recent trend in family size1996-2014

1996 2001 2007 2011 2014

Table 4. Change in average family size in South Africa 1996-2014

1996 2014 % changeProvince Western Cape 4.2 4.2 0.0

Eastern Cape 5.2 4.8 7.7Northern Cape 4.9 4.1 16.3Free State 4.7 3.8 19.1KwaZulu-Natal 5.9 4.8 18.6North West 5.1 3.7 27.5Gauteng 4.3 3.6 16.3Mpumalanga 5.2 4.3 17.3Limpopo 5.8 4.3 25.9

Place of residence

Urban 4.7 3.8 19.1Rural 5.6 4.7 16.1

Population group

African 5.5 4.4 20.0Coloured 4.9 4.6 6.1Indian 4.6 3.4 26.1White 3.0 3.0 0.0

Table 5. Differences in change in average family size1996-2014

Characteristics of head 1996 2014 % declineAge group < 20 5.9 3.9 34.6

20-29 5.7 4.0 30.230-39 4.2 4.0 5.440-49 4.6 4.2 9.050-59 4.8 4.3 11.560 + 4.7 4.2 9.0

Gender Male 5.2 4.0 21.7Female 5.0 4.3 13.2

Education No schooling 5.4 4.8 10.9Primary 5.4 4.7 12.9Some secondary 5.1 4.2 17.9Secondary + 4.3 3.7 14.6

Work status Working 4.2 3.9 7.3Not working 5.7 4.2 25.9

Not economically active 5.3 4.5 15.4

Pressure on the family from two demographic factors

(at the point of family formation)

• Marriage patterns• Childbearing patterns

Marriage and family formation patterns

• The prevalence rate of marriage is very low in South Africa, and exceptionally low by global standard among women in childbearing ages.

• Only 27% of all women in childbearing ages were currently married in 2014; Very low for African and Coloured sub-groups (African-23%, Coloured-34%, Indian-55%, White-53%).

• Following this declining trend which has been in progress for more than two decades, marriage has lost its status as the most common type of relationship for starting a new family in South Africa.

27.2

1.9 2.2

11.2

57.5

Currently married Widow Divorced/Seperated Cohabiting Never married

Figure 14. Marital status (%) of South African women aged 15-49 years, 2014

34

34.8

35.3

42.6

48.2

53.5

54

54.8

54.8

55.8

56.3

57.2

58.2

60.1

60.5

61.8

63.3

64.7

65.9

67.9

68.2

71.7

NamibiaSouth Africa

Southern AfricaPolynesia

MicronesiaNorthern Europe

Australia & New ZealandSouthern Europe

South AmericaNorthern Africa

CaribbeanEastern Europe

Central AmericaWestern Asia

Western EuropeEastern AfricaMiddle Africa

South-Eastern AsiaMelanesia

Western AfricaEastern Asia

South Central Asia

Figure 15. Prevalence of marriage (%) among women in reproductive ages in world region, (2008-10)

Table 6. Differences in marital status (%) of women in reproductive ages (15-49), 2014

Marital statusCurrently married Widow

Divorced/Separated Cohabiting

Never married

Province Western cape 35.6 1.4 3.6 10.3 49.2Eastern cape 28.2 2.8 1.9 5.8 61.4Northern cape 26.3 1.5 1.8 12.5 57.8Free state 27.9 3.3 2.8 13.2 52.7Kwazulu-Natal 21.2 1.6 1.3 8.5 67.4North west 24.6 1.6 1.7 13.4 58.7Gauteng 30.6 1.5 2.7 15.3 49.9Mpumalanga 22.8 1.8 1.5 12.8 61.0Limpopo 25.2 2.2 1.8 10.1 60.7

Type of place Urban 30.1 1.6 2.7 11.9 53.7Rural 21.8 2.2 1.3 10.0 64.7

Population group African 23.0 2.0 1.6 11.7 61.8Coloured 34.2 1.5 3.8 10.8 49.6Indian 55.0 2.3 3.7 3.5 35.5White 53.1 1.1 5.9 9.4 30.5

Table 7. Differences in marital status (%) of women in reproductive ages (15-49), 2014

Marital statusCurrently married Widow

Divorced/Separated Cohabiting

Never married

Age group 15-19 3.0 0.1 0.4 2.8 93.820-24 10.6 0.1 0.5 10.9 77.825-29 23.9 0.4 0.9 16.1 58.630-34 35.4 1.1 1.9 15.8 45.835-39 43.6 2.5 3.5 13.5 36.940-44 48.9 4.8 5.1 10.8 30.445-49 50.6 7.8 6.3 9.1 26.3

Education None 30.6 4.7 1.9 17.7 45.1Primary 23.0 2.1 1.8 12.4 60.7Some secondary 28.0 1.2 2.2 9.7 58.8Secondary + 44.8 1.6 3.8 7.6 42.2

Work status Working 37.7 2.4 3.9 11.9 44.2Not working 23.6 1.7 1.5 14.1 59.2Not economically active 20.4 1.5 1.2 8.1 68.9

Childbearing and family formation patterns

• The total fertility rate is declining for all subgroups and in all provinces.

• A distinctive feature of childbearing that affects family formation patterns in South Africa is the predominance of non-marital fertility.

• 7 out of 10 children born in South Africa in 2014 were by women who were never married (African-75%, Coloured-63%, Indian-15%, White-18%).

• Although the teenage specific fertility rate is declining, this group of women contributed 14% of all births in the country in 2014, as was the case in the four preceding years.

South Africa African Coloured Indian White1996 3.2 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.02001 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.92007 2.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.72011 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.7

Figure 16. Recent fertility (TFR) trend in South Africa1996-2011

WesternCape Eastern Cape Northern

Cape Free state Kwazulu-Natal North west Gauteng Mpumalanga Limpopo

1996 2.6 3.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.4 4.02001 2.4 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.32007 2.3 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.8 3.22011 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.8 3.3

Figure 17. Fertility trends (TFR) in the provinces1996-2011

3.5

2.5 2.6

Ever married Never married All

Figure 18. Total fertility rate by marital status, 2011

Table 8. Differences in total fertility rate by marital status, South Africa, 2011TFR

Ever married Never married AllProvince Western cape 3.3 1.9 2.3

Eastern cape 4.0 2.5 2.8Northern cape 2.9 2.4 2.5Free state 3.4 2.4 2.6Kwazulu-Natal 3.4 2.7 2.8North west 3.4 2.7 2.8Gauteng 3.2 2.1 2.3Mpumalanga 3.9 2.7 2.8Limpopo 4.5 3.1 3.3

Type of place Urban 3.3 2.1 2.4Rural 4.2 3.1 3.2Farm 3.7 2.8 2.9

Population group African 3.7 2.6 2.8Coloured 3.3 2.1 2.4Indian 3.2 0.6 1.7White 2.8 0.7 1.7

Education No education 3.8 2.9 3.1Primary 3.6 2.9 3.0Part secondary 3.5 2.7 2.8Secondary + 3.5 2.2 2.4

Work status Working 3.0 1.8 2.0Not working 4.0 3.1 3.2

Not economically active 4.0 2.7 3.0

904 935 933 927 916 923

10111058 1086 1072 1090

1025 1014 10221093

991

886

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 19. Reported number of births (000) in South Africa1998-2014

75

63

15 18

70

African Coloured Indian White South Africa

Figure 20. Birth by never married women as a percent of all births in South Africa, 2014

.076

.066.062 .060

1996 2001 2007 2011

Figure 21. Recent trend in teenage childbearing (asfr) 1996-2011

1313

12 13

13

14 1415 14 14

14

15 14 14 14 14 14

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 22. Births by women aged 15-19 as a % of all births in South Africa, 1998-2014

Summary

1. Gradual reductions in the proportion of family households and in averagefamily size identified in this analysis are common correlates of contemporarypatterns of demographic change in many countries.

2. It would appear that counterbalancing patterns of demographic,socioeconomic and ideational changes have a net effect of promotingresilience and adaptation, alongside some quantitative reduction in thenumber of simple couple families in South Africa.

3. From a social demographic perspective, I highlighted an exceptionally lowprevalence of marriage and a high rate of non-marital fertility as two factorsthat impact powerfully on the family, especially at the point of formation.

4. Clearly, childbearing has overtaken marriage as the most common entrypoint for family formation, with profound implications for other phases ofthe family in South Africa.

5. In this study, I aimed no further than to contribute new empirical data for scholarly analysis and policy assessments. Explanatory studies of the interactions of these demographic and other forces will certainly improve our understanding and inform areas of policy interest.

THANK YOU

Africa Strategic Research Corporation474 Phoenix Parkway Street, Kyalami 1684, TEL: 011 468 1010. Email: [email protected]: URL: www.africastrategic.com