What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles? Schwarz...Waymo driverless 2018 Delphi & Mobileye self-driving system 2019 ... driverless cars all over ... 2032 IEEE 75% autonomous 2040

Chris SchwarzNational Advanced Driving Simulator

April 21, 2017

What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles?

What Do We Do? Research/assess new vehicle

technology with local human subject population

Provide data to regulatory agencies and industry

Research partnerships with researchers at UI and around the world NADS-1 Dome in Bay

NADS MiniSimNADS-2 with Freightliner Heavy Truck Cab

NADS MiniSim™ Partners(Green=Vehicles, Blue=Heavy Trucks, Red=Both)

NADS, UI College of Medicine, and Library Science

University of Wisconsin Madison

• Univ of Washington• Battelle

U. of Texas-Austin (visuals)

Iowa State Univ.Hartford

Hospital Institute for Living (2)

Michigan Tech.United Tribes Technical College

CSU San Bernardino (6)

Florida State University Cognitive

Research Corporation (9)

Georgia Tech. (2)

Highland Ethanol (BP)

• General Motors (2)• Univ of Michigan• Hyundai• Honda

Driving MBA

University of South Florida

University of Chicago

NHTSA,US DOT

Clemson University

University of Kentucky

Honda Research Institute

University of Toronto

Transport Canada

University of Idaho

Garmin International

Univ of Windsor

Overseas Systems:• DGIST, S. Korea• GM, Israel

NHTSA statistics show the problem we face• In 2014, 32,675 people were killed in vehicle

crashes on US roads• NHTSA (2015), 2014 Crash Data Key Findings (Traffic

Safety Facts. DOT HS 812 219). Washington, DC

• Crash data suggests that up to 93% of crashes are caused by human error• NHTSA (2008), National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation

Survey (Report to Congress No. DOT HS 811 059). Washington, DC

The safety benefits arithmetic for automated vehicles is simple – and complicated

• # crashes reduced = # crashes prevented by AVs - # crashes caused by AVs

• Automated vehicles should be able to eliminate many crashes caused by human error (93% of all crashes)• Distraction, drowsiness, intoxicated, etc.

• What are the kinds of crashes that will be caused by automated vehicles?• Automation failures

• Transfer of control

• Mode confusion

• Misuse and abuse

A Brief History of Automated Vehicles

An early experiment on automatic highways was conducted by RCA and the state of Nebraska on a 400 foot strip of public highway just outside Lincoln (“Electronic Highway of the Future - Science Digest (Apr, 1958)” 2013)

The National Automated Highway System was researched and demonstrated in the 1990s

A demonstration of the automated highway system in San Diego (1997). University of California PATH Program

1994-1997

The DARPA Grand Challenge proved the concept of unmanned autonomous vehicles

Grand Challenge:2004 – no winner2005 – Stanley (Stanford)

Urban Grand Challenge2007 – Boss (CMU)

The Google self-driving car disrupted the industry in 2010 with their announcement of an automated vehicle

Daimler announced the world’s first self-driving semi in 2015

News from April 2017!

AV State of the Art

Are automated vehicles an evolution or a revolution?

Evolution

• “Something Everywhere”

Revolution

• “Everything Somewhere”

SAE J3016 Levels of Automation Taxonomy

Operational design domains today and into the future

There are other dimensions to consider

Different challenges of automation will peak at different levels

• Level 2 doesn’t allow disengagement, but it invites it

• Level 3 allows it, but still requires timely take overs

Transfers of control can become safety critical events for automated vehicles

Expected Unexpected

Lower to Higher Button press Collision avoidance

Higher to Lower Grab wheel Automation failure

NADS AV Study: Work Zone Event

NADS AV Study: Results

• Drivers are vulnerable after taking control from high automation levels

The Future of Automated Vehicles

There is a bold vision for the future of mobility

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Connected & Automated Intersections

Connected & Automated Intersections: Driver’s View

company capability yearAudi fully autonomous 2017NVIDIA level 4 2018Waymo driverless 2018Delphi & Mobileye self-driving system 2019VW self driving 2019Audi level 5 2020NuTonomy self-driving taxis in 10 cities 2020GM self driving 2020Ford level 4 2020Toyota auto-highway 2020Ford level 5 2021Nissan fully autonomous 2020BMW electric self-driving 2021

Baiduself-driving mass production 2021

Intel driverless 2022Tesla level 5 2023Jaguar & Lane-Rover fully autonomous 2024Daimler fully autonomous 2025

USDOTdriverless cars all over world 2025

Continental fully autonomous 2025Uber driverless fleet 2030Insurance Information Institute fully autonomous

2028-2032

IEEE 75% autonomous 2040 Source: driverless-future.com

Autonomous Car Forecasts

Future Challenges Remain

• Infrastructure

• Weather

• Cities

• Aftermarket

• Insurance

• Financial Services

• Testing & Certification

• Job loss

• Mobility for elderly, disabled, young

• Ethical dilemmas

• Energy

We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.- Bill Gates

Advanced Vehicle Technology in Iowa

From the National Safety Council and the University of Iowa…

HERE High Definition Map

NADS Research Vehicles

Tesla Model S 75D Volvo XC-90

Thank you!Questions?