What-If Scenario Planning for Large Programs (See the Forest, Not the Trees)

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What-if Scenario Planning for Large Programs

Prepared by:

Randy Musick

Sr. Project Controls Specialist

Pro2Serve

“See the forest, not the trees”

Session ID#: 200760

Agenda

■ Introduction

■ Client Profile

■ Background and challenges of decision making for the

program

■ Program management issues and lessons learned

■ Improvements implemented and results

■ Q&A

Introduction and Client Profile

Pro2Serve At A Glance

■ Pro2Serve provides technical and engineering services that support critical infrastructure of government and private industry – and help ensure our Nation’s Security

▪ 18 years of experience focused on security systems, facilities

and infrastructure, nuclear and nuclear nonproliferation, program

management and environmental services for DoD, DOE and

Utilities

▪ More than 350 employees, most with advanced degrees and

licensures

▪ Over 180 DOE Q and DoD TS clearances, DoD and DOE

approved classified possessing facility

Client Profile

■ Oak Ridge Office of the Department of Energy Environmental Management

▪ Address environmental liabilities across Oak Ridge reservation

▪ Manage asset utilization, facility upgrade and disposition at 2

sites

33,500-acre Oak Ridge Reservation

Primary cleanup areas: East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Y-12 National Security Complex.

Background and Challenges

Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management

■ High level mission is clearly defined

■ Program goals are aligned with organizational strategic

objectives

■ Program success factors:

▪ Achieve environmental risk reduction

▪ Meet regulatory milestones

▪ Release areas back to sites for on-going modernization

▪ Optimize the work within multiple funding sources and resource

constraints

Complex and Inter-related Projects

■ Facility decontamination and demolition (D&D)

■ Environmental remediation

■ Design and construction of a new facilities

■ Utility re-configurations

■ On-going surveillance and maintenance

Integrated Master Plan

■ $15B, 34-year program

■ Project plans developed and integrated using Oracle

Primavera P6 across a consistent WBS structure

▪ 15,000 Activities with ~16,000 relationships (3 Sites)

▪ 439 D&D facilities

▪ 230 environmental remediation projects

▪ Design and construction projects

▪ Utility reconfigurations and all associated LOE requirements

such as waste operations and surveillance and maintenance

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

439 D&D Facilities

An aerial view of East Tennessee Technology Park prior to demolition.

439 D&D Facilities

An aerial view of Y-12 National Security Complex prior to demolition.

439 D&D Facilities

An aerial view of Oak Ridge National Lab prior to demolition.

Program Challenges

■ Complex interdependencies and layered prioritization

■ Maintain logical project sequencing within budget constraints

▪ expected annual budget appropriations

▪ from multiple individual funding sources associated with specific

types of projects

■ Competing project prioritization between program

stakeholders

■ Frequency of funding scenario development

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Issues and Lessons Learned

Requirements and Challenges

1. Timely project information at the right level of detail for

Program decision making

2. Pedigree of combined and integrated information on

Projects, including inter-project relationships, that will

impact Program level decisions

3. Clear and concise communications mechanism to develop

and present alternative scenarios for effective decision

making

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Initial Planning Model

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Initial Planning Model (Continued)

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Issues and Impacts

■ Change scenarios with inter-project dependencies are

needed for decision making but took weeks to prepare

■ Scenarios needed to be made in days

■ Decisions masked by level of detail

■ Inability to develop timely scenario information resulted in

decisions with unintended consequences

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Improvements and Results

Tool and Process Improvements

■ Implemented new InVizion® Analyzer (―What-If-Tool‖) to

▪ Optimize program decision making process

▪ Improve communication between stakeholders (Contractors,

Public, DOE, and State and Federal Regulators)

▪ Able to focus on data required for decision-making

— Projects, Funding, Schedules, Milestones

▪ Able to analyze multiple project aspects simultaneously

— Cost Plans, Schedules, Milestones, Capacities, Personnel,

Quantities, etc.

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Tool and Process Improvements (cont.)

■ Implemented new processes

▪ Access real time project information in Oracle Primavera P6 at

sufficient level-of-detail

▪ Develop multiple scenarios in InVizion that obey inter-project

dependencies

▪ Compare, contrast and communicate scenarios to respond to

constraints and funding changes

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model – Base Plan

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model – Revised Plan

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model – Milestones

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model – Site Funding Plan

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model - Funding Source Plan

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model - Funding by Project

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Planning Model - Funding Comparison

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

New Results

■ Measurable schedule and cost savings

▪ Reduced time to respond to funding changes and new

constraints

▪ Realized significant cost avoidance

▪ Reduced lifecycle costs

▪ Improved communications with internal and external program

stakeholders

© 2015 Professional Project Services, Inc.

Questions?

Randy Musick

Pro2Serve

(865) 220-4460

[email protected]

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