1 What Happened to the Florida Orange Industry? By Allen Morris _______________________________________ Case Study Presented at the Private and Public, Scientific, Academic and Consumer Food Policy Group Meetings, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, November 23-24, 2014.
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1
What Happened to the Florida Orange Industry?
By Allen Morris
_______________________________________
Case Study Presented at the Private and Public, Scientific, Academic and Consumer Food Policy
Group Meetings, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, November 23-24, 2014.
2
The Private and Public, Scientific, Academic and Consumer Food Policy Group (PAPSAC)
Founded in 1993, PAPSAC is sponsored by the John F. Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard University, and funded from grants provided by the Kellogg Foundation. Its mission is
“to reach constructive decisions in developing and utilizing technology in the U.S. food system
in a socially, environmentally, and economically desirable manner.” PAPSAC brings together
non-profit organizations and for-profit enterprises, academics, and agribusiness corporate
leaders, consumer advocates and nutritionists, public policy analysts and high level
representatives of FDA and other government agencies. The purpose is for leaders from all
points in the food system to speak freely about critical issues facing each entity, the country, and
our global economy and ecosystem. Consequently, media is not allowed entry into the venue
because that could prevent the free flow of ideas and information. Attendance is by invitation
only and limited to 75.
Some of the organizations represented at PAPSAC meetings include Smithfield Foods,
Syngenta, Perdue Farms, Cargill, Eli Lilly and Co., King Ranch, Wegmans Food Markets, The
Dannon Company (Dannon Yogurt), Monsanto, and Dow Chemical from the private sector; the
Harvard Business School, Harvard Medical School, Harvard Law School, the Environmental
Protection Agency, the Food and Drug Administration, the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World
Bank, Johns Hopkins University, the National Academy of Sciences, the Wharton School of
Business, the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, the Mormon Church, and the Royal
Agricultural College of England from the public sector. The main focus of the meetings is
improving health and nutrition world-wide, sustainable agriculture, food safety, water
availability and quality, and genetically engineered crops.
The following is a case study. As such, it must be written in past tense because it might be used
as a teaching tool at Harvard, and years from now the events described in the case will be in the
past. Harvard cases must also have a central character that the case is built around, and be written
as a factual story.
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What Happened to the Florida Orange Industry?
Allen Morris
Introduction
Allen Morris, vice-president of sales and marketing for Blue Lake Citrus Products, stared in
disbelief as Todd Dicks, a Central Florida grower, showed him through one of his orange groves
near Winter Haven. There was almost as much fruit on the ground as on the trees. And it was
only December, about two months before this Hamlin grove was scheduled to be harvested. Of
greater concern was the fact that this high rate of fruit drop was present throughout Florida’s
citrus industry, for all varieties of citrus. Harvesting of Valencia orange groves, which would not
begin until March, would not be completed until June, so fruit losses could become much worse.
Other than after a damaging freeze or hurricane, this was one of the highest rates of fruit drop
Allen had ever seen. And Allen had seen a lot of citrus groves in his 35 year career in the citrus
industry. A career that in addition to his current position, had included management positions at
Duda, one of Florida’s largest growers, Tropicana, one of the largest orange juice brands,
Cutrale, one of the largest bulk citrus processors, exporters and growers, Prudential Agricultural
Investments, the largest lender to citrus growers, and as a member of the University of Florida
Citrus Research and Education Center faculty, the world’s largest citrus research facility. In
addition to Florida, Allen had visited citrus groves in California, Brazil, China, Mexico, and
Spain, areas that collectively represented over 90 percent of the world’s orange production.
There was no doubt in most growers’ minds that the high fruit drop was because of citrus
greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), a devastating citrus disease that had been found in south
Florida nine years earlier. Rather, there was shock and concern that the enhanced foliar nutrient
programs that most Florida growers had chosen as a way to control HLB instead of removing
infected trees, may no longer be effective as a greening management tool. That concern grew as
the 2012-13 Season progressed, and the original Florida orange crop estimate of 154 million
boxes by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service Florida Field Office (NASS) in
October of 2012 was subsequently reduced seven times in monthly forecasts until it reached
133.6 million boxes at the end of the season. Reflecting the potential for increased fruit drop
again, the initial Florida orange crop estimate by NASS for the 2013/14 season was only 125
million boxes. However, that estimate was reduced five times in monthly forecasts until it
reached 104.6 million boxes by the end of the season, as fruit once again dropped off trees at
rates seldom seen before the prior season. This was the smallest Florida orange crop in a non-
freeze year since the 1967/68 crop. The 2014/15 season orange crop forecast by NASS on
October 10 was 108 million boxes. With better growing conditions than in several seasons, the
forecast of a larger crop than that of the previous season was not surprising. But if NASS
subsequently reduced this forecast by as much as they did last season’s, the orange crop would
be 90 million boxes, only one million more than a well-respected private forecast in August. It
appeared as if the concerns of many scientists that enhanced foliar nutrient programs may not be
effective on a sustainable basis were correct.
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The concern and fear of most of the Florida citrus industry was that if fruit volumes continued to
decline in subsequent seasons, there would not be enough fruit to support an economically viable
infrastructure of citrus processing, fresh packing, fruit harvesting and hauling, and other sectors
that were important to the functioning of the industry. More importantly, that this would result
in the loss of a major part of the $8.9 billion Florida citrus industry and the 76,000 jobs it
supported.
HLB and Funding Research for a Cure
HLB had originated in China about 100 years ago. It was thought to be caused by the bacterium,
Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus. HLB had seriously affected citrus production in a number of
countries in Asia, Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Arabian Peninsula. Wherever the
disease appeared, citrus production had been compromised with the loss of millions of trees. It
was first discovered in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2004 and Florida in 2005, two regions
that accounted for almost 90 percent of world orange juice production. It was spread by a tiny
insect called the Asian citrus psyllid when it fed on the leaves of infected trees. Symptoms were
leaves with a yellow/green blotchy mottled color and fruit that was lopsided, had aborted seeds,
failed to color properly, and was bitter and small. It first reduced fruit yields, then killed the tree.
A tree could be infected for up to two years and not show symptoms, yet still spread the disease.
By February of 2008, less than three years after the first positive HLB test on a Florida citrus
tree, near Homestead, the disease had spread to all 32 of Florida’s commercial citrus producing
counties.
Botchy Mottled Leaves Psyllid
Lopsided Small Bitter Fruit with Aborted Seeds
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The Florida Citrus Production Research Advisory Council (FCPRAC) operated under the Florida
Citrus Production Research Funding Order. This research support program was established under
the Florida Marketing Act, which initially enabled Florida citrus growers to tax themselves up to
one cent per box of citrus for the purpose of providing funding to support needed research.
Growers approved this marketing order by referendum in 1991. It ended every six years, when
growers could elect to renew it and set a new funding ceiling or discontinue it. FCPRAC's
board, which consisted of 14 grower representatives serving four-year terms, had the
responsibility for assessing citrus production research needs, working with investigators to
develop projects to meet those needs, selecting among competing research proposals and
awarding grants to selected proposals. The FCPRAC board also determined the tax rate annually
within the ceiling. The tax was collected by the Florida Department of Agriculture and
Consumer Services (FDACS) and historically raised around $1.5 million annually for research
projects. Faced with the urgency of HLB and related research, the Florida Legislature and the
Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) contributed an additional $12 million to FCPRAC for
distribution during the 2008–2009 citrus production season. In 2011, after it was approved under
the Florida Marketing Act and by Florida citrus growers, FCPRAC voted to increase the tax
ceiling to three cents a box.
The Florida Citrus Commission and the Florida Department of Citrus were formed in 1935. The
Florida Citrus Commission (Commission) was a 9-member board appointed by the Governor to
oversee the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). The FDOC provided marketing, research, and
regulatory support for Florida citrus products. Although it was a state agency, the FDOC
operated under a state marketing order which established a means to raise revenue through a tax.
Growers funded the FDOC through an excise tax placed on each box of citrus that moved
through processing plants and fresh fruit packinghouses. The Commission set the tax rate each
year. Historically, about 80 percent of the FDOC operating budget was allocated to marketing
activities such as TV advertising, public relations and merchandising. With the onset of HLB in
Florida, the Commission directed 16 percent of the FDOC's budget to disease research. The
research money was channeled through FCPRAC for disbursement to researchers in the form of
competitive grants.
The Citrus Research and Development Foundation, Inc. (CRDF) was a corporation organized in
the 2008/09 citrus production season under Florida State laws as a Direct Service Organization
of the University of Florida. Its birth was in response to one of the recommendations of a
National Academy of Sciences committee. This committee had been employed by the citrus
industry to review the threat of HLB and recommend how to organize the efforts to develop
management strategies to enable surviving HLB until a cure was found and how to improve
efficiencies in order to speed the finding of a cure. The committee recommended that the efforts
to battle HLB be consolidated under one organization with strong leadership that would direct
the efforts to fight HLB and also patent and commercialize results of the research. The mission
of the CRDF was “To advance disease and production research, and the patenting and
commercial development of new technologies, to ensure the survival, competitiveness, and
profitability of the Florida citrus industry.” The organization was headed by a 13 member board
of directors that included individuals from the citrus industry, academia and government, and
represented the interests of all sectors of the Florida citrus industry. After it was established, all
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HLB citrus research funding went through the CRDF which, among other things, solicited
research proposals and awarded grants to selected proposals.
Florida Citrus Mutual, a cooperative trade association, was formed in 1948. Its mission was to
help Florida citrus growers produce and market their crops at a profit. With about 8,000 grower
members, Mutual was led by a member-elected board of 21 directors. Primary activities included
effective lobbying at the federal and state level, providing market information, and serving as a
strong, effective voice for members. Mutual was funded through a tax assessment per box of
citrus sold through commercial channels. During the past decade, Mutual had secured over $1
billion for hurricane disaster aid, research for citrus pests and diseases, most notably HLB, and
other assistance for Florida growers.
Since 2007, The Florida citrus industry, federal and Florida state governments had invested
approximately $70 million in over 100 research projects to find a cure for HLB. But as of 2014,
a cure had not been found.
Management Practices to Control HLB
From an economic viewpoint, the main consequences of greening were increased tree mortality,
reduced fruit yields, and increased costs of production. The recommended horticultural
management practices to help control HLB were to scout for trees with infected leaves, remove
those trees as soon as they were found, and aggressively spray to control psyllid populations.
Most well-trained scouts could be 95% accurate in visually identifying HLB. About 10% of the
infected leaves found in scouting were sent for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in a lab
as a check on the accuracy of the scouts. U.S. Sugar Corporation in Clewiston and the
University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Research Center in Immokalee
operated PCR labs used by Florida growers.
Scouting for HLB
Uncontrolled HLB spread at a non-linear rate, often doubling, tripling or more each year
(Exhibit 1). The goal was, through controlling psylid populations and removing infected trees,
to keep HLB infection at 2% or less. Unofficial estimates indicated that had been achieved on
less than 100,000 acres of Florida’s 524,640 acres of commercial citrus groves. Once the HLB
infection rate exceeded 7-8% in a grove or block, the disease was usually uncontrollable. A
particularly disturbing aspect of HLB was that psyllids preferred to feed on newly flushing
leaves. Since multiple flushes throughout the year were more prevalent on young 1-4 year old
trees, it was difficult to reset trees lost to HLB or other causes, or to replant individual blocks in
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a grove with high inoculum levels, and get the newly-planted trees to survive. Of particular
concern was the impact of HLB on organic citrus production. Since organic growers couldn’t
effectively spray to control psyllid populations, organic production was impacted much more by
greening than fruit produced in non-organic groves.
In the 2003/04 season, the year before HLB was found in Florida, 242 million 90-pound boxes of
oranges were produced on 564,844 bearing acres containing 75.4 million bearing trees (Exhibit
2).1 By the 2007/08 season, 170 million boxes were produced on 464,000 bearing acres
containing 61.7 million bearing orange trees. While part of that decline was the result of trees
removed to control the spread of HLB, and an unprecedented high-priced Florida real estate
market that diverted citrus groves to real estate development, most was due to the federally-
mandated citrus canker eradication program. The experiences with that program affected the
success the Florida citrus industry had in managing HLB.
Citrus canker was a bacterial disease that caused lesions on leaves, stems and fruit, making the
fruit, which was safe to eat, too unsightly to be sold. It was spread primarily by wind-driven rain
and human contact. While it did not kill trees, if uncontrolled, it would eventually render trees
unproductive. If controlled by management practices, it reduced fruit yields by 5 – 15%, and
increased production costs, both from reduced yields and increased spraying needed to keep trees
producing marketable fruit. The citrus canker eradication program legally required the
destruction of all citrus trees in a 1900 foot radius of an infected tree, which was about 260 acres.
After hurricanes spread canker throughout Florida in 2004 and 2005, the eradication program
was deemed unsuccessful and discontinued in 2006. Consequently, the Florida citrus industry
was managing canker and dealing with the resulting reduced fruit yields and higher costs.
Between 1995 and 2006, 10 percent of Florida’s citrus acreage (87,000 acres) was destroyed as
part of the canker eradication effort, at a direct cost of $1.3 billion.
Citrus Canker
1 In Florida, a box of oranges is a standard unit of measurement and weighs 90 pounds. It contains 220-
250 oranges and produces 6-7 gallons of juice. Citrus fruit is now handled in bulk bins and trailers, thus
the term “box” is a statistical measure only.
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After the failed canker eradication program, many Florida growers felt that eradication of canker
should never have been the goal, that managing and living with canker the way Brazilian
growers had been doing for decades should have been the goal, and that the eradication program
had destroyed tens of thousands of acres of citrus unnecessarily. This hurt the credibility of the
scientists and state and federal agencies with growers and as a result, many didn’t take the threat
of greening seriously. Consequently, a number of growers either did not follow recommended
practices to control greening at all, or although they sprayed to reduce psyllid populations, did
not remove infected trees that were still economically viable, which exacerbated the spread of
the disease. The unpopularity of the canker eradication program was one reason no attempt was
put into place to legally require citrus growers to manage HLB. By the time growers realized
how serious greening was and began to aggressively follow recommended HLB management
practices, it was too widespread to effectively control. The industry desperately needed a way to
survive greening until a cure was found.
HLB was discovered in Maury Boyd’s 400 acre grove near Immokalee in the spring of 2006,
only six months after it was first discovered in Florida. At that time, 40 percent of the trees in
some of the blocks in his grove were already symptomatic for greening. Maury ignored the
advice of scientists that he needed to remove his infected trees because the grove’s profitability
would have been substantially reduced. With Maury’s permission, the Florida Department of
Agriculture’s Division of Plant Industry (DPI) used his grove to train scouts because the
infection was so widespread there. Maury had been a citrus caretaker for many years and had a
reputation for experimenting with innovative ways to improve citrus yields and lower production
costs.
Maury developed a mixture of foliar nutritional compounds and began using it on his grove.
HLB infection spread to 100%, but his grove thrived. Maury conducted tours through his grove
for hundreds of interested growers and scientists, from both Florida and Brazil. Some groups
were so large they came in buses. By the 2008/09 season, production in his grove had increased
to 585 boxes per acre, compared to a state average of 354 boxes per acre for that season and a 5-
year state average (excluding freeze and hurricane years) of 359 boxes per acre.
It appeared to most growers and some scientists that enhanced foliar nutrient programs might
keep citrus trees economically productive until a cure for HLB was found. By 2010, informal
surveys indicated that about 75% of the growers in Florida had abandoned tree removal and
adopted some version of Maury’s enhanced foliar nutrient program, which still required
aggressive control of psyllids.
The cost of Maury’s enhanced foliar nutrient program, net of the scouting and tree removal costs
it eliminated, and ground fertilizer costs it reduced, were an increase in production costs of $288
per acre, which was 16 percent of direct cultural costs. Scientists believed these programs
worked by feeding nutrients to the tree through its leaves, by-passing the compromised root
system and blocked phloem of a tree infected with HLB. However, many scientists were
concerned that in the absence of removing infected trees, with the resulting increased inoculum
levels that would be in groves, if the enhanced foliar nutrient programs were not effective on a
long-term basis, infection rates would be too high to enable getting HLB under control and the
groves would be lost. Thus, they were against abandoning removal of infected trees as part of an
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Maury Boyd’s grove, 100% infected with HLB and using his enhanced
foliar nutrient program
An example of waiting too late to begin an HLB management program
10
HLB management program. Some citrus growers with low HLB infection rates (typically less
than 5% infection) agreed with the concerns of these scientists and continued to scout for and
remove infected trees, but also used various enhanced foliar nutrient programs to strengthen trees
that may be infected but were not yet symptomatic.
Since 2004, the year before HLB was discovered in Florida, the costs for managing a Florida
citrus grove had more than doubled, increasing from $920 to $2,049 per acre. While some of
this increase in costs was due to higher prices for fertilizers and chemicals and costs for
managing canker, the vast majority was from greening management practices. Adding harvest
and haul costs, depending on fruit yields (which were lower than in previous years due to HLB),
and interest on capital investment (or loans) including a return to land, the result was that break-
even costs for producing juice oranges had doubled, going from about $.73 per pound solids
prior to the discovery of HLB in Florida to $1.47.2
Impact of HLB on Citrus Production in Florida Compared To Brazil
In the fall of 2008 at industry request, Allen organized and led a collaborative effort by the
University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS), DPI, and NASS to
conduct a survey to determine the extent of HLB infection in Florida citrus groves. In 2009, it
was decided to make this an annual survey in order to track changes in infection rates. U.S.
Sugar Corporation also joined this survey, providing additional helpful data from their PCR lab.
The survey showed that HLB infection rates increased from 1.6% in 2007/08 to 21.9% by
2010/11 (Exhibit 3). After 2011, not enough growers were scouting for infected trees to obtain a
representative sample and the survey was discontinued. Exhibit 4 illustrates the way this
incidence of infection looks on a map of Florida. It was estimated that by 2011, every
commercial citrus grove in Florida was infected with greening, although infection rates varied
from less than 3% to over 75%.
FUNDECITRUS, a Brazilian citrus research organization, also conducted an annual greening
infection survey for Sao Paulo State, where most of Brazil’s citrus was produced. In 2008, four
years after greening was discovered in Brazil, infection was 0.6%. By 2011, it had increased to
3.8%, substantially lower than in Florida (Exhibit 3). It was estimated that in 2011, 53% of
Brazil’s citrus groves were infected with greening with infection rates ranging from less than 1%
to 7%. As a result of these much lower HLB infection rates, and ability to move new plantings
into greening-free regions, citrus production in Brazil had not been affected by HLB nearly as
much as in Florida (Exhibits 2 and 5). In fact, the most recent three-year average of orange
production in Brazil was greater than the three year average before HLB was discovered there.
Brazilian growers, without the stigma of a recently failed disease management policy that Florida
growers had experienced, took the threat of HLB much more seriously after it was first
discovered than Florida growers. Thus, they were more aggressive in implementing effective
2 Pounds of solids are a measure of the soluble sugar solids in juice. Fruit and bulk juice bought
and sold by processors is priced per pound of solids. One gallon of single strength ready-to-serve orange
juice, such as consumers buy in a store, contains 1.029 pounds of solids. Oranges generally produce
from 6 to 7 pounds of solids per 90-pound field box. Over 95% of Florida’s oranges are processed into
juice.
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greening management practices during the critical early stages after it was first detected when
infection rates were low. Also, it was required by law in Brazil to scout for, locate and remove
greening-infected trees, but as explained earlier, not in Florida.
Brazilian citrus production was also moving further southward and northward (“running from
greening”) as growers replanted in areas such as Baru and Istapetininga where there were no
psyllids and no disease pressures from greening. These new groves were also planted at double
the tree densities, and a larger percent were irrigated, than the groves in the traditional
production regions of Matao, Limieria, Araraquara, and Piriciaba. Thus, yields per acre would be
much greater in the new regions than they had ever been for groves in the traditional regions.
Florida growers had no such places without psyllids or pressure from greening to move their
citrus production to. Discussions with Brazilian growers indicated the general expectation was
that most of the fruit lost in the areas where greening was most widespread would be offset by
new production in the other regions, a process that had already begun to happen.
HLB Research
HLB research was focused into three broad areas, tree resistance, psyllid control and disease
management strategies. Tree resistance research was mainly focused on ways to find or develop
rootstocks and/or trees that would be immune or resistant to HLB, either through genetic
engineering or trials with rootstocks that would show promise for traits of HLB resistance.
Psyllid research was focused on insecticidal control. The two HLB horticultural management
strategies that showed the most promise were organizing the state’s groves into Citrus Health
Management Areas (CHMAS), and replanting economically unviable groves using ultra-high
density advanced production systems.
No matter how effective tree removal and psyllid control were, if a neighboring grove was not
effectively managing HLB, the efforts in both groves were substantially compromised. For large
contiguous plantings under one management that was not a problem. But in areas consisting of
numerous smaller groves (less than 1,000 acres each), it was. UF/IFAS extension personnel led
efforts to organize these smaller groves into larger 10,000 – 20,000 acre citrus health
management areas (CHMAs). All growers in a CHMA operated their psyllid spray program on
the same schedule. These larger areas also enabled small growers that were in the CHMA to use
aerial spraying, which reduced costs compared to ground spraying. The result was more effective
psyllid control since the insects were not being chased into neighboring groves on a different
spray schedule. In 2014 there were 48 CHMAS in Florida covering over 500,000 acres.
Higher density plantings enabled greater fruit production from 4-10 year old trees because of the
greater number of trees per acre, which increased the present value of earnings over the life of
the grove.3 But higher density groves were more costly to plant than groves of traditional
densities of 116 to 145 trees per acre. Before HLB, most growers were unwilling to invest the
additional funds to plant ultra-high density groves, so most Florida groves were planted at
3 Citrus trees are four years old before they produce a commercially harvestable crop, and their production
increases until they are about 12 years old, when production levels out. A citrus tree will produce fruit for
over 30 years if it does not succumb to diseases or a freeze.
12
traditional densities. In fact, after higher density groves are 10 years old, anecdotal evidence
indicated that the higher density crowded the trees and actually led to reduced grove yields.
With endemic HLB, in order to offset increased tree attrition and increase the productive life of
future groves potentially infected with HLB, some Florida citrus growers were considering
replanting groves lost due to HLB or some other cause to densities ranging from 198 to 350 trees
per acre. Some smaller groves producing fruit for the fresh market were being planted at
densities as high as 570 trees per acre. In addition to providing more trees per acre to offset
higher tree mortality from HLB, a key advantage of higher density groves was that when trees
were lost, the neighboring trees grew to fill the empty spaces, thus helping further mitigate lost
yields per acre. An advanced production system (APS) was being used where the higher planting
density was combined with nutrients and water, precisely managed through a drip irrigation
system. To reduce the impact of crowding as the trees matured, dwarfing rootstocks were used
in APS groves. The smaller trees received sunlight in their interior more uniformly than
traditional trees, which improved fruit yields. Fruit harvesting costs were also reduced because
the trees did not grow tall enough to require ladders.
Economic analysis conducted by Morris and Muraro at the University of Florida showed that the
economic life of a mature citrus grove planted at traditional densities was less than 8 years after
it became infected with HLB if the infection was not controlled to less than 3%. That same
mature grove planted at 270 trees per acre had an economic life of 15 years or more. However,
young (less than 5 year old) trees were at greater risk of greening infection than mature trees
because of the increased attraction of psyllids to the multiple leaf flushes of young trees. Thus,
the challenge for replanting an unprofitable citrus grove at higher densities in order to increase
its economic life was to prevent or minimize greening infection in young trees so they lived long
enough to become profitable. That was the main impediment to replanting economically
unproductive citrus groves in Florida after the discovery of HLB. Prior to the discovery of HLB
in Florida, when annual tree losses were 2-4% and lost trees could be easily replaced by
resetting, groves had an economic life of over 25 years if not destroyed by a freeze. Some groves
were still in production after 80 years.
Addition horticultural management practices that were being explored to mitigate the impacts of
HLB included heat treatments that entailed placing tents around individual citrus trees and
subjecting them to temperatures of 104 – 113 degrees F., and treating trees with antibiotics and
antimicrobial compounds.
Saving the Florida Citrus Industry
Between 2000/01and 2013/14 the Nielsen-measured U.S. orange juice market declined by 45%,
Florida orange production declined by 53% and retail orange juice prices increased by 44%
(Exhibits 1 and 6). The decline in the orange juice market appeared to be the result of the
decline in orange production and resulting higher prices. However, an examination of historical
data during the supply-reducing freezes of the 1980s will help explain why the U.S. orange juice
market problem is not caused by inadequate supplies. Between 1979/80 and 1989/90, Florida’s
orange crop went from 207 million boxes to 110 million boxes, a 47% decline (Exhibit 7). Yet
the Nielsen-measured orange juice market only declined from 808 million gallons to 702 million
gallons, a decline of 13.1% during this time, even though retail orange juice prices increased by
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62% (Exhibit 7). How did the Florida citrus industry suffer a 47% decline in orange production,
experience a 62% increase in orange juice prices, yet only lose 13% of the market? Orange juice
imports, primarily from Brazil, supplemented reduced Florida orange juice supplies, and as a
result of strong orange juice demand, did not denigrate prices (Exhibit 8). In 1989/90 the
Florida Citrus Processors Association average price for early-mid and Valencia oranges was
$1.55 per pound solids, which in 2014 dollars would be $2.82.
Why had the US orange juice market declined so much by 2014 that it was smaller than it had
been in over 30 years? Because since 2001 the Florida Department of Citrus generic advertising
programs had not been effective,4 and because some nutritionists and physicians had been
downplaying orange juice consumption because of its high sugar content, which they claimed
contributed to obesity. Effective marketing of any product required telling consumers what was
different about the product and why that difference had value.
By 1992 the US orange juice market was down in spite of increased consumer purchasing power
and lower retail prices, because marketing efforts had been reduced during the supply-
constraining freezes of the 1980s. The Florida Citrus Commission decided to recapture the
declining orange juice market by developing a marketing program that would emphasize the
health and nutritional advantages of orange juice. This led to the launching of the “Triple
Crown” marketing campaign, which told consumers that orange juice consumption reduced
chances of cancer, heart disease, and birth defects. Endorsements about the health benefits of
orange juice were received from the American Heart Association, the American Cancer Society
and the March of Dimes. Messages were also published about the health benefits of consuming
orange juice from credible scientists and research institutions. Between 1995/96 and 2000/01,
the last five years of this marketing strategy, the total orange juice market grew by 10 percent
and retail prices increased by 20 percent – real demand growth. US per capita orange juice
consumption rose to its highest level in history, 5.8 gallons.
Telling consumers that orange juice helps them “take on the day,” such as the FDOC’s generic
advertisements had done since 2001, did not effectively convey these messages. Coffee, tea, soft
drinks and a number of other products could also help consumers “take on their day.” The
consumer needed to be told what was different about orange juice, and why that difference had
value. If changes in laws governing health claims now prevented that, then a credible scientist or
physician could say “orange juice is an important part of a healthy diet” as part of the
advertisement, which was an opinion.
Orange juice did contain natural fruit sugars, the same as any 100 percent fruit juice. But non-
diet soft drinks contained more sugar per ounce than orange juice, and it was added sugar from
other sources, and had no substantial nutritional benefits. Per capita consumption of non-diet
soda was ten times as high as orange juice consumption, but health care professionals were not
attacking soft drinks as much as orange juice. Also, orange juice had more nutrients per calorie
4 Studies have repeatedly shown that brand advertising does not grow the orange juice market, it only
grows the advertised brand’s share of that market. Effective generic advertising is required to grow the
total orange juice market.
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than most other 100 percent fruit juices such as apple, grape, pineapple, and prune juice.5 Other
nutritional attributes of orange juice that leading beverages such as soft drinks, other 100 percent
fruit juices, coffee, tea, and milk did not have is that orange juice was unusually high in vitamin
C and contained potassium citrate, vitamins or other compounds that may act as anti-oxidants in
the body, flavonoids, folate, and thiamine. These attributes may contribute to improving blood
vessel functioning, reduce the risk of some birth defects, reduce LDL (the bad cholesterol), help
prevent kidney stone formation, and may have beneficial effects on blood pressure, which can
help reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. These attributes may also help support the
immune system, and protect cells against free radicals, which could damage cells and tissue that
could contribute to the development or progression of chronic disease. Importantly, some of
these benefits, particularly those related to cardiovascular disease markers, had been
demonstrated in clinical trials with orange juice.6 7 8 Moreover, epidemiological research had
shown that consuming orange juice compared to not consuming was not associated with an
increase in bodyweight in children or adults.9 10
Unfortunately these messages had not been
effectively conveyed to consumers.
The citrus industry already had the technology to live with HLB, the same as China had been
doing. In Ganzhou, the world’s largest naval orange production region, larger than California,
Spain and South Africa combined, they tried enhanced foliar nutrient programs. But ultimately
all of their citrus trees were wiped out. So they replanted using disease-free bud wood, at higher
tree densities, 260 or more trees per acre; they regularly identified and removed symptomatic
trees as soon as they were found; reset lost trees; and sprayed aggressively to control psyllids,
coordinating their psyllid spray schedules so they were spraying on the same days. The result
was an average HLB infection rate in Ganzhou of only 0.2%.
5 Rampersaud, Gail C. “A Comparison of Nutrient Density Scores for 100% Fruit Juices.” Journal of
Food Science, Vol. 72, No. 4, 2007.
6 Basile, LG, Lima, CG, Cesar TB. “Daily Intake of Pasteurized Orange Juice Decreases Serum
Cholesterol, Fasting Glucose, and Diastolic Blood Pressure in Adults.” Proc Fla State Hort Soc.