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What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re CIP Image: used under license from shutterstock.com
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What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

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Page 1: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months

September 2015, IMIA Conference MexicoStephan Lämmle, Munich Re CIP

Image: used under license from shutterstock.com

Page 2: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 2

Page 3: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Superlatives in Engineering ProjectsTallest Buildings

Name Kingdom Tower

Sky City BurjKhalifa

PinganInternational Finance

Center

Shanghai Tower

MakkahClockRoyal Tower

GoldinFinance

117

LotteWorld Tower

One World Trade Center

CTF TianjinTower

CTFChow Tai

FookCenter

Taipei 101 Shanghai World

Financial Center

International

Commerce Centre

PetronasTower

City Jeddah Chang Dubai Shenzhen Shanghai Mecca Tianjin Seoul New York City

Tianjin Guagzhou Taipei Shanghai Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur

Country Saudi Arabia

China UAE China China Saudi Arabia

China South Korea

USA China China Taiwan China China Malaysia

Built 2019Under

construction

On hold 2010 2016Under

construction

2014 2012 2016Under

construction

2015Under

construction

2014 2017 2017 2004 2008 2010 1998

Floors 167 202 163 115 121 120 117 123 104 97 111 101 101 118 88

Height 1007 m 838 m 828 m 660 m 632 m 601 m 597 m 556 m 541 m 530 m 530 m 509 m 492 m 484 m 452 m

Image: Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re Image: Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re Image: Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re Image: Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 3

Page 4: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Superlatives in Engineering Projects

Metro

Ʃ USD 100 bn*Image: DEA PICTURE LIBRARY/ Getty Images

* Top Metro Projects past 24 months

1. Doha = USD 30 bn

2. Moscow = USD 10 bn

3. Mecca = USD 9 bn

4. Sao Paulo = USD 8 bn

5. Riyad = USD 23 bn

6. Quito = USD 1.3 bn

7. Lima = USD 4.4 bn

8. Hanoi = USD 1.3 bn

9. Fortaleza = USD 0.9 bn

10. Delhi = USD 0.8 bn

11. Singapore = USD 7.5 bn

12. Kuala Lumpur = USD 6 bn

13. Ho Chi Min City = USD 1 bn

14. Los Angeles = USD 1 bn

15. Panama = USD 2 bn

16. Oman Rail

17. Mekkah Metro

18. t.b.ctd.

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 4

Page 5: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Superlatives in Engineering Projects

Huge diameter very deep tunnels

Image: Hartmut Reiner/ Munich ReImage: picture alliance / Photoshot

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 5

Page 6: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Development of GTS Power Output

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

39 45 48 64 70 77 82 85 93 96 98 2003 2011 2015

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 6

Manufacturer / Type

HZ MW - SC

MW - CC

Year Introduced

Alstom (ex ABB) GT36-5

50 471 690 2015

GE9HA.01, 9F 7-series, 9FB.05

9HA.02

50

50

397

510

592

755

2015

?

SGT5-8000H (1.3), 20132015 (1.4)

50 405

?

2013

?

Mitsubishi 701J 50 470 680 2013

Page 7: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

New Hot Spot Construction Sites

Record high with a total new installed capacity of more than 100 GW in 2014

Renewable energy investment saw its second highest amount in 2014, reaching $ 270 bn.

Investment mainly driven by solar ($ 150 bn) up 25% on 2013, and wind ($ 100 bn) up 11% on 2013.

Renewable Energy Investment continues

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 7

Page 8: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

New Hot Spot Construction Sites

“We are also blessed with a desert” California

Nevada

Arizona

Negev

Morocco

….

Experience in: Flooding? Lightning? Tornados? Earthquake

Sources: environment.nationalgeographic.com with Data courtesy World Wildlife Fund / Munich Re

Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Image: Munich Re

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 8

Page 9: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 9

Page 10: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

New Trends & Technologies

Digitalization / BMI 5.0 Big Data Smart Grid Internet of Things E-Mobility Cyber Risks Drones & WebCams Pre-fabricatrion 3D-Printing Infrastructure Sensors (silicon film changing

color under stress, magnetic-field detectors, earthquake detectors)

Emotion Recognition Brainwave Control Driverless Driving Gigaliner …

How will these impact? Potential for Insurance

Early Detection Systems

Predictive Maintenance

Enhanced Loss Prevention

Online Monitoring / Claims Evidence

Condition based pricing

Infrastructure Redesign

New risks / new products

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 10

Big Data

Wireless Sensor Network

Cloud ComputingArtificial Intelligence

Mobile Technology

Virtual RealityVisualization Technology

Embedded systems

3D Printing

Cyber-physical SystemsInternet of Things

INDUSTRY 4.021st Century

Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Page 11: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

E-Truck

Making use of Renewable Energy in Transport

Gigaliner

Are our roads and traffic systems fit for this?

Future Transportation Methods

September 2015 11Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

Image: dpa Picture Alliance / Friso Gentsch

Image: Lexus

Magnetic Supraconductor Hoverboard

Page 12: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Have your companies got the solutions?

1. Economic slowdown/Slow recovery

2. Increasing competition

3. Damage to reputation/brand

4. Regulatory/legislative changes

5. Business interruption

6. Failure to innovate/meet customer needs

7. Third-party liability

8. Commodity price risk

9. Failure to attract or retain top talent

10. Cash flow/liquidity risk

The overall top 10 risks are: In Europe the top 10 risks in 2015 are:

Source: Commercial Risk Europe, #04, May 2015.

1. Damage to reputation/brand: +3 from 2013

2. Economic slowdown/slow recovery: -1 from 2013

3. Regulatory/legislative changes: -1 from 2013

4. Increasing competition: -1 from 2013

5. Failure to attract or retain top talent: = 2013

6. Failure to innovate/meet customer needs: = 2013

7. Business interruption: = 2013

8. Third party liability: +5 from 2013

9. Cyber risk (computer crime/hacking/viruses/malicious codes): +9 from 2013

10. Property damage: +7 from 2013

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 12

Page 13: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Loss scenarios: Producing Industry

Software of production process is corrupted leading to wrong orflawed production output

Data for the production robots is wrong or missing leading towrong or flawed production output

Data for producing parts of other is lost or stolen leading toliquidated damages, liability claims, displeased customers etc.

Delivery process for raw materials/ parts is interrupted due to missing data leading to business disruption or interruption

Consequential reputational loss leading to customer loss and consequentially loss in future revenue and profit as well as increased costs

Prefabrication & 3D Printing are also existent in Engineering BusinessAssociated Risks are Serial Losses, Delay and Business Interruption, Liability Claims, Reputational Loss, Liquidated Damages, Loss of contracts …

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 13

Page 14: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Loss scenarios: Energy and Utilities

Many control systems are vulnerable to attacks or manipulation,e.g. Control systems connected to external networks could allow

access leading to malicious attacks, business interruption,displeased customers etc.

Production could be stopped due to manipulation of controlsystems leading to outages, liabilities, liquidated damages, displeased customers etc.

Attack on smart meters could impact load planning leading to outages, displeased customers etc.

Attack on smart grid could impact possibility to supply energy leading to over-/ undercapacity, outages, lost revenues etc.

Consequential reputational loss leading to customer loss and consequentially loss in future revenue and profit as well as increased costs

Many control systems are vulnerable to attacks or manipulationProduction could be stopped and load planning be impacted leading to outages and/or over-/ undercapacity

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 14

Page 15: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Industry Evolution

Source & Copyright ©: RIB

INDUSTRY 1.0

Steam power

18th Century

INDUSTRY 2.0

Electric power

19th Century

INDUSTRY 3.0

Electronics and IT

20th Century

Image: ???

New Procedures

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 15

Page 16: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Construction Industry –From Traditional to Advanced

Traditional Construction Advanced Construction

INDUSTRY 4.0

Source & Copyright ©: RIBEngineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 16

Page 17: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Source & Copyright ©: RIBEngineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 17

Page 18: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Source & Copyright ©: RIB

Materials

Sand Bricks Cement Wood Steel

Conventional

Components

Roof Walls Kitchen Unit Bathroom Unit Windows Floor

Precast

A New Way of Construction - Prefabrication

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 18

Page 19: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Chinese Construction Firm erects 57-storey skyscraper in 19 days

Company claims to be world‘s fastest builder after assembling Mini Sky City at a pace of three

floors a day

Industry Evolution – New Building Methods

Headline

September 2015 19Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

Page 20: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 20

Page 21: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

World Economic Forum – Global Risk Report 2014Failure of climate change mitigation / adaptation and greater incidence of extreme weather events are still under the top 5

Based on a survey ofover 700 leaders anddecision-makers on31 selected global risks

For the first time, surveyrespondents were askeddirectly to nominate theirrisks of highest concern

Likelihood

Impa

ct

Source: World Economic Forum

Climate Change

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 21

Page 22: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Main findings of the 5th Assessment Report: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over

decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have

diminished, sea level has risen, concentrations of greenhouse gases haveincreased It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause for

observed warming since 1950s

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 22

Page 23: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

September 21, 1979

Minimum of Arctic Sea Ice CoverSource: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, 2013

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/Gallery/ArcticSeaIceResources.html

The yellow line shows the average minimum extent from the period covering 1979-2010.Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

September 2015

Page 24: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Minimum of Arctic Sea Ice CoverSource: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, 2013

September 16, 2012

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/Gallery/ArcticSeaIceResources.html

The yellow line shows the average minimum extent from the period covering 1979-2010.Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

September 2015

Page 25: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

September 2015

Page 26: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

In the past 30 years, there has been a significant increase in natural catastrophe losses ...

Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, Economic Research

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980-2012: Inflation-adjusted overall and insured losses

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US$ bn

Overall losses (in values of 2012) Insured losses (in values of 2012)Trend line overall losses Trend line insured losses

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 26

Page 27: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

... which is hardly surprising, given the global rise in prosperity

Trendline of overall losses

Trendline of insured losses

Overall losses (at 2012 values)

Insured losses (at 2012 values)

Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, Economic Research, IMF

Global GDP, real and at purchasing power parity, index: 1980 = 100

US$ bn

Left axis

Right axis

Real GDP, index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980-2012: Inflation-adjusted overall and insured losses; global GDP index

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 27

Page 28: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Not only are the loss amounts rising – the number of natural catastrophes is increasing significantly too

Meteorological events (storms) Hydrological events(floods, mass movements)

Climatological events(Extreme temperatures, droughts, forest fires)

Geophysical events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions)

Number

Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, Economic Research

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980–2012

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 28

Page 29: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Increasing insurance penetration (of particular relevance for the trend in insured losses)

Population growth

Rising standard of living

Concentration of population and assets in conurbations (“urbanisation”)

Settlement and industrialisation of heavily exposed regions

Regional increase in loss-relevant and extreme events

The factors driving the trends of the past willalso influence those of the future

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: Munich Re Economic ResearchEngineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 29

Page 30: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Image: dpa Picture Alliance

… as these two examples illustrate

Direct economic losses: US$ 43bn (12.4% of GDP)

800 fatalities

65 of Thailand’s 77 provinces affected by the flood

Direct economic losses: about US$ 11bn

220,000 fatalities

The coastal regions of 13 countries on two continents were devastated

Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, Economic Research

Flood in Thailand in 2011 Tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004

Image: DAMIR SAGOLJ/Reuters/Corbis Image: dpa Picture Alliance/ Mike Nelson

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 30

Page 31: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Only in Asia?

In 15 Years, Floods Will Be a Part of Everyday Life on the East Coast

Image: picture alliance / abaca / Dennis Van Tine

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 31

Page 32: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Only in Asia and USA?

Hurricane Vince

9th October 2005

most north-eastern Hurricane ever recorded, near Madeira

Tropical Storm Delta

27th November 2005

over Canary Islands

Tropical Storm Grace

5th October 2009most north-eastern Tropical Storm ever recorded, next to the Azores

With warming sea surface temperatures, regions exposed to tropical cyclones spread towards Europe

Tracks of tropical cyclones, approaching Southwestern Europe

Image: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Image: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Copyright 2015 EMETSAT

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 32

Page 33: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Is climate change only at the other side of the world?

Tornado in Bavaria, Germany

14.05.2015

Image: dpa Picture Alliance / Mario Lindner / Luftsportverein Aichach

Image: Süddeutsche Zeitung PhotoImage: dpa Picture Alliance / Karl-Josef Hildenbrand

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 33

Page 34: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 34

Page 35: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Statements from the markets

Taiwan: The local market situation is still very soft since there are nearly 20 insurers providing engineering insurance capacity in

Taiwan. The capacity available is not increasing, but more and more local insurers retain risks which they write as acceptable.

… In 2014 there is no major optimistic boost to the construction industry from government’s economic policy. Construction

businesses are not increased, which is also affecting the engineering insurance.

Netherlands: Based on this economic standstill over 2014, a further decrease in demand of engineering line covers - especially

in EAR/CAR - was expected. The figures show exactly that trend. We are back on the premium levels before 2010. …

The expected growth over 2014 did not materialize and is now expected to return in 2015

USA: As market conditions continue to harden, premium growth has continued to increase. With losses increasing at a slightly

higher rate in 2014, overall loss ratios are rising. Insurers need to continue to implement new ideas and strategies within the market

to create positive premium growth while improving underwriting and pricing guidelines to reduce losses and maintain profitable growth.

Austria: The share of Engineering Insurance in the Austrian property and casualty market changed from 4.22% in 2013 to 3.52% in

2014. … For 2015 the prognoses for the premium income in the line of business of Industrial Insurance in general is not too

good. The premium income within the Engineering Insurance is estimated to go down by 1.5%.

Mexico: The soft market remains. The premium increase is apparently due to new insured risks. … large infrastructure projects

depend on federal government investment and its income depends on oil prices, many of the new released projects have been

delayed. The reinsurance of many of the projects is placed in the origin countries of the contractors in charge thus decreasing

the ceded premium. The use of Coinsurance among Companies is helping to keep local premiums.

Country Reports Extracts

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 37

Page 36: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Statements from the markets

Finland: The premiums have stayed at a slightly declining level during the period 2012-2014. Main reasons for this development

are the continuing economic uncertainty … The investments both in private and public sectors have been on a low level …The

softness of Finnish engineering insurance market has continued. Low rates and broad wordings dominate … However

Underwriters have growing concern about the consequences of savings in maintenance and replacement investments … The

softness of the market together with exceptional economic situation has led to a declining profitability.

Sweden: A major recovery of the overall premium for the last two years compared to 2012 can be noted. The reason is most likely

related to the continuing growth of the construction sector together with investments of some major infrastructure projects

within the country, however a reduction of major investments in the heavy industry sector and particularly in the energy and pulp-

and-paper sectors can be noted. …The competition in the Swedish market has been very hard for many years now and there are

no signs of changes …The tendency of not only low rates but also widening policy wordings is still ongoing. Engineering business

as such has during many years been profitable but we have now for the last 3-4 years noted that the profit is slowly reducing. The

fierce competition leading to reduced rates and wider wordings is most likely the reason for the continuing eroding figures even though

the result is still acceptable.

Brazil: The Government tenders for infrastructure projects …didn’t come and the insurance market felt directly their impact. …So,

these negative figures could be explained by the continuous soft market wave present in Brazil that is day to day softer. The rates

are extremely low … and, because of the tough competition, the market is more aggressive facing large loss ratios.

France: The French construction industry has been hit hard by the country’s economic recession, contracting in real terms for

seven consecutive years to 2014. Growth prospects are limited, owing to the weak property market, subdued public spending, and

a lack of investor confidence. Nevertheless, a recovery in investment in transport infrastructure will help to support the industry …

Global L/R deteriorated …mainly due to the lack of invest … The Competition on the Engineering lines business is strong. There

is always large capacities available

Country Reports Extracts

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 38

Page 37: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Statements from the markets

Germany: In 2014, German engineering premium income grew … Claims in engineering insurance decreased. Thereby

engineering insurance had underwriting profits in 2014 as uninterrupted since 2003…Its is observed, that natural hazards are relevant

for claims in engineering, although currently these effects are not recorded by the GDV…As projected by GDV, German property &

casualty written premium will grow … in 2015, while the combined ratio will increase.

Australia: With record low interest rates, a federal election and a softening insurance market 2013 presented insurers with

significant profitability challenges. However with few major natural peril events the year was profitable and its insurer’s solvency

positions remained strong…The outlook for investment in Australia has softened primarily in the mining…Whilst business

investment has been waning the planned government spending on infrastructure will help to fill the void in 2014 and 2015…From

an insurance perspective, rates are extremely soft and coverage’s are the broadest at any point in time for the Construction and

Engineering classes of business. There is still abundant capacity for construction business in Australia, particularly coming from the

international insurers ... This is limiting any potential for the market cycle to improve, if anything it has set new benchmarks for

a soft market.

Turkey: For Engineering Insurance lines, total premium production has decreased …For the engineering lines; technical profit

has decreased … The decrease in the 1st quarter of 2015, can be explained with the slowdown of investments due to presidential

elections …this situation shows a considerable decrease on number of contracts for government projects, which effect

contractor’s all risks business.

Spain: We can conclude that it continues the decreasing trend of premiums observed in last years, being remarkable that this

reduction has been generalized in almost all lines (except electronic equipment and EAR)…In general, the effect of the economy

slowdown has produced a reduction of the engineering insurance premiums evolution, considering both the decrease of the

investments and the difficulties to obtain credit… The situation in 2015 for the engineering insurance is to expect better results.

The situation of economic growth allows some optimism in the engineering insurance sector.

Country Reports Extracts

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 39

Page 38: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Statements from the markets

Some major markets are recovering and developing well

Still several large and mega projects being placed

Underwriters aware of makrket situation, increasing push for more underwriting discipline and

risk selection information

Several countries characterized by slow economy with lack of public and private investment

leading to reduced number of infrastructure projects

Fierce competition with decreasing rates and widening wordings

Reduced budgets for maintenance and replacement in the industries

Inreasing claims ratio

No change in sight

Summary of Country Reports Extracts

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 40

Page 39: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 39

Page 40: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Construction market is out of equilibrium …oil price has to improve or the contractors’

prices have to come down for the IRR to come back .“

David Welch, President EUMEA Bechtel

We cannot create a hardmarket

But we can definitely create a soft market

Insurance Senior VP & CUO, Canada

“Property excludes terrorism and terrorism excludes cyber.

What we need is cover for cyber terrorism.”

Broker

“We hear about a great many insurance managers talk about

being willing to reduce volume in order to underwrite profitably, but we

find that very few actually do so”Warren Buffet, CEO Berkshire Hathaway

A few quotes to the current market…

“I know there are no magically funded deep pockets and would be very satisfied if the market we are

working in were to end today”Broker

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 40

Page 41: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

A few statements regarding changes in the market Actual and prospective Mergers & Acquisitions & Run-Offs

AXIS (or EXOR SpA) & Partner RE Zurich & RSA Allied World & RSA (Asia) ACE & Chubb (28,3 bn) ACE Seguros & Itaú (Brazil) XL / Catlin Lloyd's consortium formed by Ascot

and Chaucer for renewable energy Lloyds consortium formed by Hardy

Tablot & Beazley Sompo bought major share in Scor Re Swiss Re enter China by purchasing

RSA Berkshire Hathaway enters Infrassure in run-off

Willis & Miller

Willis & Towers Watson ($18 bn)

THB imports energy team from Howden

Howden boosts Singapore office with staff from JLT

Hyperion Insurance Group (Howden) & RKH

Re-/Insurers Brokers

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 41

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A few statements regarding changes in the market New Leaders …

Source: Willis, Natural Resources Market Review, April 2015, S.11. Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 42

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Exposure stable

Premium reducing

Rate deteriorating

L/R increases

Margin tighter

Exposure – Premium Development

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 43

PML

PISI

Page 44: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

All together - How shall this work ?

Premium income

Claims (gross)

exposure

Rates

Claims net

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 44

Page 45: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

Long-term pattern – today’s underwriting result only visible in several years

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Projects: average 5 years construction / testing & 2 years maintenance9 years claims pattern

Typical Development

Premium Claims

Risks from 2006 still impact on result in 2015Measures taken in 2012 only fully effective after 2023 Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 45

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Today’s Result is not the Ultimate Result of Tomorrow A “Perceived Good” Loss Ratio in CY 1 Will Develop

Development Patterns for Engineering ProjectsTo

day

Tomorrow

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 46

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Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com Image: used under license from Shutterstock.com

Comparison Property vs. EngineeringEngineering requires a bundle of measures for improvement

September 2015 47Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle

Property

Turnaround Time

Engineering

Risk Selection

Portfolio Composition

[2 years] [6-9 years]

USD 453 bnUSD 10.5 bn(4,7 bn Projects)2,3%

XL & Annual

Q/S & XL Short & Longterm

Frequency & Volatility

Limitations

No big blue ocean for pick & choose No non-prop

No quick wins / fast effect Cycle Duration

No simple “No-go Industry”Segmentation

Page 48: What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months · What happened in Engineering Insurance in the past 12 months. September 2015, IMIA Conference Mexico. Stephan Lämmle,

1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 48

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Large LossesDisclaimer: Market estimates - unverified

Date of Loss Year Country Type of Plant Type of cover CauseCurrent Estimate PD/BI100% USD

2010Germany TPP EAR T242014UK TPP OPS Turbine LSB failure2014UK TPP OPS Scrubber fire mid ## Mio2014South Africa TPP OPS Boiler explosion2014South Africa TPP OPS Conveyor/silo collapse2013Germany TPP EAR Acid contamination of boiler low ### Mio

2014Germany TPP EAR Saltwater intrusion damaging boiler steelhigh ## Mio

2014Brazil TPP OPS Generator faultmid ## Mio

2015Saudi Arabia CCPP EAR/OPS Sandstorm entering gas turbineslow ### Mio

2015US Solar PV farm OPS Tornado damage to Solar panels mid ## Mio

2014 Algeria CCPP OPSLiberation of compressor stator row S1 vane tip – root cause under investigation mid ## Mio

2015Algeria CCPP OPSSubstantial vibration followed by excessive temperature and tripping. Cracks and pull-outs observed on foundations. mid ## Mio

2014US CCPP OPS Blades and bearings damaged mid ## Mio2014Nicaragua Wind farm OPS Power failure leading to overspeeding. low ## Mio

Power: Few NatCat – Mainly Man-Made … Material, Design, Operation

Date of Loss Year Country Type of cover CauseCurrent Estimate PD/BI100% USD

2012USA CAR & TBM Inundation from Storm Surge (HU Sandy) mid ## Mio2013USA CAR & TBM Damage to TBM main bearing and bearings high ## Mio2010USA CAR & TBM Partial collapse of starter tunnel mid ## Mio2007Brazil CAR & TBM Collapse of dia. 18,5 station tunnel mid ## Mio2005Taiwan CAR & TBM Collapse of a 40 m deep cross passage low ## Mio2004Singapore CAR Collapse of the cut and cover station box low ### Mio

Tunnels & TBM: NatCat & Design

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 49

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Legal action of US & UK engineering/construction companies

0102030405060708090

100

2010 2011 2012 2013Engineering/construction companies involved in international arbitration

Engineering/construction companies spending at least 1 mn USD on litigation p. year

*

Claims expenses going up

Legal action changes are impacting claims pattern

Increases in both damages paid and legal costs

Expenses increasing for Insured, Broker, (Re)Insurer, Third Parties

Disputes increase, more arbitration/litigation

Required time for adjustment going up

Reasons?

Contractual complexity (contract scope, extension of supply chain, number of contractors, lenders requirements)

Wordings containing intentional and unintentional ambiguities

Claims behavior of involved parties (economics, corporate governance, etc.)

%

* estimate

Source: Fulbright’s 9th Annual Litigation Trends Survey Report

Law & Jurisdiction – Litigation Behavior

“All three arbitrators, however, appeared to have some difficulty separating concepts of construction contract law from insurance law”

Quote, Legal Advisor following an arbitration case 2013

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 50

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1. Superlatives in Engineering

2. New Trends in Engineering

3. NatCat Developments

4. Market Performance

Extracts from IMIA National Reports

Changes in the Insurance Landscape

Major Claims in Power & Tunneling

5. Outlook

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 51

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The choices for positioning

Intelligent risk selection

Understanding the client's risk

Quick and flexible quoting

Proactive claims culture

Offering a "one stop shop"

Product innovation and flexibility

Leading without expertise

Simplistic, price-driven underwriting

Culture of entitlement

Poor service and claims response

Inability to lead

Insufficient capacity

"Boxing Clever"

Image: dpa Picture Alliance / HIP / Stapleton Historical CollectionImage: dpa Picture Alliance / Mary Evans Picture Library

"Sleepwalking to Disaster"

Source: Source: Commercial Risk Europe, #04, May 2015.Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 52

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© 2015 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in München("Munich Re"). All rights reserved.

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Munich Re has used its discretion, best judgement and every reasonable effort in compiling the information and components contained in this presentation. It may not be held liable, however, for the completeness, correctness, topicality and technical accuracy of any information contained herein. Munich Re assumes no liability with regard to updating the information or other content provided in this presentation or to adapting this to conform with future events or developments.

Engineering Insurance 2015 / Stephan Lämmle September 2015 53

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Stephan Lämmle, Munich Re CIP

Thank you very much for your attention

© 2015 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft © 2015 Munich Reinsurance Company Image: used under license from shutterstock.com