What does Asia want from Australian wheat?...2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 New Zealand Sudan Iraq India Yemen Malaysia Philippines Japan Korea, Republic of China Viet Nam Indonesia Wheat

What does Asia want from Australian wheat?Dr Ken Quail

AMC

Content page• AEGIC• Importance of Asia• Choice analysis• Major targets• Future growth and opportunity• Competition

Who is AEGIC?• Investment by WA Government and GRDC• Laboratories in Perth and Sydney (former BRI)• National, independent ‘innovation center’ for Australian grains• Not for profit company

• PURPOSE & VISION• To increase value in the Australian grains industry• To be Australia’s leading organization for market insight,

innovation and applied technology in the grains industry

Australian wheat exports

SE Asia now accounts for 44% of Australian wheat exports. Asia accounts for 65%...and rising

Our leading markets

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

New ZealandSudan

IraqIndia

YemenMalaysia

PhilippinesJapan

Korea, Republic ofChina

Viet NamIndonesia

Wheat exports 5 year Ave 2013 to 2017 ('000MT)

Flour use in SEA

• Noodles are the largest flour use in Indonesia and Malaysia

• Bread major use in Philippines• Study focussed on wheat

purchase for noodle and bread

Quality requirements of SEA wheat marketsBuild evidence on preferences for wheat quality and functional attributes• 4 markets studied• 20 milling companies and 80 participants

(wheat purchasers & mill technicians)• Evidence based approach – choice analysis

Attribute preferences when Indonesian flour mill technicians purchase wheat for bread making

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Quality inspection, chemical/mycotoxin testsOn-farm quality assurance program

Technical support,seasonal quality reportScreenings/unmillable material

Country of originGrain colour (white vs red)

Moisture contentWater absorption

Wheat ashDough tolerance

Wheat gradeDough development time

Test weightDough stability time

PriceFlour colour - b*

Uniformity of wheat shipmentWheat falling number

Noodle colour b*Starch viscosityDough strength

Flour ashProtein content

Dough extensibilityMilling yield

Flour colour - L*Wet gluten content

Noodle colour L*Noodle texture firmnessNoodle texture elasticity

Noodle colour stability

Importance index

Attribute preferences when Indonesian flour mill technicians purchase wheat for fresh noodles

Wheat grade preferences for Indonesian fresh noodles

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Russian wheat

Ukraine milling wheat

USA HRW

Canadian CWHWS

USA DNS

Australian ASW

Canadian CWRS

Australian APW

Australian AH

Australian APH

Wheat grade preference score

Mill technicians Wheat purchasers

Competition

Indonesian consumption

2014 2020Wheat consumption

22kg/person 34kg/person

Segment GrowthRate

2015/20 (%)

Market Scale 2025 (MMT)

Instant noodles 17 4.3Fresh &dry noodles

25 3.1

Bread & buns 28 3.3 Biscuits & cakes 16 1.4Pasta 44 <0.2

Australian wheat exports ave2011-15

4MMT

Other suppliers ave 2011-15 3.8MMTProjected total import growth 2025

5MMT

SEA: Key RecommendationsSEA: Market

Scale 2025 (MMT)Price

Differenceto BS

Defend share of noodle marketVolume of wheatGrow the price differential to Black SeaContinuous improvement using B/W and WTP data as reference

8.2 >20USD

Capture share of the bread marketDrive improvement in baking performanceEstablish an elite baking class using B/W and WTP as targets

5.5 >50USD

Australian wheat to supply the biscuit, cracker and cake market

Develop a solution that provides a win for farmers and our markets

2.7 ASWprice?

Conclusions• Asia is a focus for our wheat and value add markets• End product performance drives value with clear messages for:

• Breeding• Classification• Supply chain

• Noodles are our strength but there are opportunities to supply bread and soft wheat markets

Next steps• Vietnam and Thailand• Detailed demand studies to forecast requirements to

2030 including market segments• Soft wheat

• Benchmarking US wheat and potential Australian supply to Asian requirements

• Global supply and demand• Review production options

• Australian wheat for Asian baking

GRDC InvestmentAEGIC staff

Ros JettnerLarisa CatoChris Carter

Acknowledgements