What do you think best characterizes Dr. Curry’s opinion on what has caused the majority of planetary warming in the late 20th century? a) CO 2 b) solar.

What do you think best characterizes Dr. Curry’s opinion on what has caused the majority of planetary warming in the late 20th century?a) CO2

b) solar variabilityc) a combination of solar and CO2 forcingd) she seemed really uncertain, I couldn’t tell

Do you think that Dr. Curry believes that CO2 is warming the planet?a) yesb) noc) the uncertainties are too large to answer yes or no

First, an exchange between Judy and myself:

and this goes on…

From Curry lecture on Tuesday

“Total Solar Irradiance” measuredby satellites ~ 1365 W/m2

But in terms of actual radiative forcing on Earth,need to account for:1)Earth is a sphere (divide by ~4)2)Earth reflects 30% of incoming solar

radiation (b/c of ice, clouds, deserts, etc)

So… for a maximum total TSI change of 5 W/m2 since 1900, actual radiative forcing is 5 W/m2 / 4 * 0.7 = 0.875 W/m2

Corrected numbers…

0.9

0.110%

1

And later, when confronted with her solar forcing error:

Side note: slides were removed from her blogafter error was pointed out

What do you make of this brouhaha?

Is it important to you? To the world?

State and Regional GHG Initiatives

What are the individual states doing to mitigateGHG emissions?

What are the common elements? and regionaldifferences?

How does the first multi-state cap and tradeprogram (RGGI) work?

What implications do these non-federal programshave for pending federal legislation?

Categories of State GHG activities

1)Vehicle Emissions Standards

2)Renewable Portfolio Standards

3) Efficiency Standards/Programs

4) Cap and Trade programs

Most content in the following section fromCenter for Climate and Energy Solutions (c2es.org)

Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards – It’s all about California

2002: CA passes law requiring 30% emissions reductions by 20122002-2007: EPA stalls on granting CA waiver to step outside

federal emissions standards in response to industry complaints2007: CA files lawsuit against EPA for stalling2009: EPA grants CA waiver to set standards *if* changes to 2016 timelines

to be consistent with Obama CAFE standards

Plug-in electric vehicles

Biofuels

Renewable Portfolio Standards

Ranges from:CA: 33% by 2020TX: 5% by 2015NY: 30% by 2015CO: 30% by 2020NC: 12.5% by 2021

through electricity bills and/orutility charges

allows costumers to sell electricityback to grid

Public benefit funds Net metering programs

Green PricingGaPower optional: $5/100kwhr;green powerw/ 50% solar;~$50/monthadditional cost

Appliance Efficiency Standards

State Building Efficiency Requirements

2/27/200715% below 2005 by 2020cap and trade

11/15/2007set emissions targets by 11/15/08~60-80% cuts by ???? (2040?)cap and trade; C inventory, reportingfull implementation by mid-2011

http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/regional_initiatives.cfm

RegionalClimateAlliances

Spring 2008

Nov 15, 2007, in devt

Dec 20, 2005, eff. 1/1/09

Feb 26, 2007, eff. 1/1/12 (goal = -15% of 2005levels by 2020)

June 25, 2008, not eff. yet

RegionalClimateAlliances

Spring 2010

Transportation Climate Initiative(2010 declaration from 11 states)

RegionalClimateAlliances

Spring 2012

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

-set regional limits on GHG emissions from electric power plants & transportation

-based on “Model Rule”, but each state can design their own strategyfor implementation (state targets set for 2009 emissions)

-comes into force in 2009

-power plant emissions remain constant through 2014, fall by 10% by 2018

-“cap & trade” mechanism: each state will set GHG limits and then issuepermits equal to the tons of CO2 allowed by the cap

Basic elements of Model Rule:

1)applicability: applies to fossil fuel-fired electric generating units >25MW(covers 25% of regional GHG emissions)

2) size & structure of cap: a) states must stabilize power sector CO2 emissions at 2009

emissions during implementation (2009-2014)b) then reduce emissions by 2.5%/yr for 2015-2018(total reductions of 10% below 2009 levels by 2018)

3) permitting: each CO2 source must have approved CO2 budget emission monitoring plan (EMP); developed by state energy regulators4) allowance allocation: most CO2 allowances auctioned off (vs. ETS)

25% allowances to support consumer benefit programs5) temporal flexibility mechanisms:

facilities can “bank” or “rollover” CO2 allowancesearly reduction allowances granted for early demonstrated

reductionsextended compliance period

6) price triggers: stage 1: if CO2 allowance cost >$7, CO2 offsets can increase stage 2: if CO2 allowance cost >$10, CO2 offsets increase more,

compliance period extended, international CO2 credits allowed

Basic elements of Model Rule: (cont)

7) emissions monitoring: CO2 unit must install and certify monitoring system, report quality-controlled data (borrows from EPA acid rain program)8) offsets: awards CO2 offset allowances to projects outside capped sector that sequester/reduce CO2 emissions (limited to 3.3% of unit’s total compliance obligation

- must prove “additionality”

Who stands to gain here?Who stands to lose?Or is it that simple?What would you do as a power company in a RGGI state?

What is leakage? and how does it impact RGGI?

LEAKAGE

There could be a shift of electricity generation from capped sources subject to RGGI to higher-emitting sources not subject to RGGI.

-impossible to predict ahead of time (market and political forces unknown)

-RGGI proposes to:1) track load vs. generation2) monitor C-intensive nature of non-RGGI power

policy options:1) reduce electricity demand (efficiency), so indirectly reduce leakage

2) limit the amount of CO2 (<xx lbs CO2/MWh) that could be “emitted” through long-term purchasing agreements between RGGI utilities and regional power plants

3) emissions portfolio standard

How did the states dole out allowances?

- different than ETS, most allowances auctioned off

How much money did they make?

Across three past CO2 allowance auctions, cost ~$3/ton

Where did all this money go?

How much did it cost the average customer?Distributing the CO2 allowance costs around the ratepayers in thoseStates, RGGI costs added $0.73/month to the average electric utility bill.

Has RGGI reduced emissions? [does it matter?]