What do you mean, ‘Tipping Point’? Fold bifurcation Saddle point Homoclinic bifurcation Torus destruction Supercritical Hopf bifurcation Subcritical Hopf bifurcation Turing instability Phase locking Arab spring End of foot-binding Public smoking Forest die-back Lake turbidity Coral bleaching Stockmarket crash Depression Epileptic seizure Heart failure Fainting Greenland Icecap Indian Monsoon Gulfstream ?
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What do you mean, ‘Tipping Point’? - KNAW · Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Point” (2000) Grodzins 1957 Racial Segregation. A situation where a small impact can cause
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What do you mean, ‘Tipping Point’?
Fold bifurcation
Saddle point
Homoclinic bifurcation
Torus destruction
Supercritical Hopf bifurcation
Subcritical Hopf bifurcation
Turing instability
Phase locking
Arab spring
End of foot-binding
Public smoking
Forest die-back
Lake turbidity
Coral bleaching
Stockmarket crash
Depression
Epileptic seizure
Heart failure
Fainting
Greenland Icecap
Indian Monsoon
Gulfstream
?
Use of the term
1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
50
100
150
200
year
# ar
ticle
s
allenvironmental
What do you mean, ‘Tipping Point’?2016
Use of the term
Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Point” (2000)
Grodzins 1957 Racial Segregation
A situation where a small impact can cause “runaway change”
Driven by “positive feedback”
What do you mean, ‘Tipping Point’?
Slowing down precedes ancient climate shifts
Dakos et al PNAS 2008
Climate Tipping Points Evidence from the past
Vasilis Dakos
Abrupt Shifts
Critical Slowing
down
Critical Slowing Down Indicates loss of resilience
In the vicinity of Tipping Points
Critical Slowing Down Indicates loss of resilience
In the vicinity of Tipping Points
As Critical Slowing Down preceded past climate transitions
these ‘abrupt’ shifts were likely due to Tipping Points
But can we also predict future shifts?
Slowing down precedes ancient climate shifts Insights from models
Vasilis DakosPNAS 2015
Expert Views
Tim Lenton et al. PNAS 2008
ObservationsModels
We are quite certain that the Earth has Tipping Points