WFO Expectations of WoF : Benefits and Challenges

WFO Expectations of WoF:Benefits and ChallengesDavid L. Andra, Jr.Meteorologist In ChargeWFO Norman, Oklahoma

WoF Workshop Workshop 2013

Overview•The WFOs•The evolving mission of the WFOs•Potential benefits

▫Analyses▫Forecasts

•Challenges•Conclusions


“My perspective…does not necessarily reflect views of

colleagues or employer”


The WFOs


The WFOs•“Are in the community”•Services directed toward local needs•Various staffing levels•Various levels of expertise•Very diverse

▫Urban vs. rural, coastal vs. inland, etc.▫“Progressive” versus “Traditional”▫Variations in management philosophy


The evolving mission•Schedule driven•ASCII text only•Basic weather forecasts, warnings•Manually intensive


The evolving mission•1990s – early 2000s•Data sets integrated into workstations•More data•Services diversifying

▫Internet arrives•Discussions of “Decision Support Services-DSS”


April 19, 1995


The evolving mission•Today•Services more

diversified•Much more data•Internet primary direct conduit to users•DSS services rapidly

growing•Need for better

guidance at all scales


Emerging themes•Shrinking scales in space and time•Must be adaptable to diverse users•Must be agile•Must manage our data•Forecaster over the loop•Spectrum of services


WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses

▫Help manage vast data sets▫Provide common starting

point▫A bridge from warn on

detection


WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses and Forecasts

▫Offer possibility to provide calibrated hazard services

▫Gridded multi-variable fields allow tailoring to diverse needs, thresholds of users

▫Expand potential lead time for customers that need it


WoF Potential Benefits•Forecasts

▫More hazards forecast▫More specific locations▫More specific times for onset and ending▫Means to express confidence▫Could provide scientific foundation for

services


WoF Potential Benefits•WoF in general

▫Can help support NWS DSS vision▫Can provide a basis for future WFO

warning operations▫Therefore help define a meaningful role

for the next generation of forecasters


Challenges•Practical barriers

▫“First, do no harm”▫Changing the culture▫Future NWS conops unknown▫Fiscal realities of early 21st century


Challenges•Capturing customer needs•Meeting customer needs•We tend to buy systems

▫Less consideration of “soft” aspects of change


Challenges•Training

▫Should be thorough and rigorous Meso, storm scale NWP, communications

skills▫Must include all forecasters▫The first to go in an austere fiscal climate


Challenges•We don’t understand breadth and depth of

our users’ needs▫Basic social science work remains▫Most users don’t understand even today’s

service capability


Conclusions•We envision:

▫An evolution of capability and services▫The means to get our arms around data

volume▫More specific information in space and

time▫More frequent updates to message▫Likely gridded and probabilistic in nature▫Capable of supporting diverse delivery

methods▫Easily tailored for customers and private

sector


Conclusions•We envision:

▫Capability to forecast more hazards▫An opportunity to bring increased

reliability and uniformity to services▫An opportunity for meteorologists to evolve

into a role consistent with changes in technology and NWP


Questions ???

WFO Expectations of WoF : Benefits and Challenges

Documents

centurywof workshop

detectionwof workshop

employerwof workshop

wfoswof workshop workshop

scales wof workshop

wof potential benefitswof

evolving missiontodayservices

evolving mission1990s