Western Water Supply Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon
Western Water Supply
Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSDJay Breidenbach, WFO Boise
Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFCAlan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC
Don Laurine, NWRFCChad Kahler, WFO Tuscon
Outline
• Western Water Supply– History
• Project overview– Westwide map– Forecast evolution– Verification– Ensemble services
• Future enhancements– Climate variability and change– Short range ensembles services
Western Water Supply Forecasts
•Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US
•Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR)
•NWS forecast program began in 1940s
•Primary forecast tools:– Ensemble Streamflow Prediction– Multivariate Linear Regression
Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)
Project in a Nutshellwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs
Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow
Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools
Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow predication
Data Access: Access data from database
Milestones• Milestones (past):
– April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held– January 2006: Initial website launched– September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development– January 2007: Common database developed– March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs– September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm
• Milestones (future):– December 2007:
• Launch verification 1.0 capabilities• Launch forecast evolution 2.0• Launch ensemble services 1.0
– January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data– 2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities
Map
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts
• Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA
• Zoomable to basin scale
• Mouse over capability for forecast values
Forecast Evolution
Time evolution of forecast and observed streamflow
Plot options include:
-Observed monthly or seasonal streamflow
-Historical monthly or seasonal streamflow
-Forecast seasonal streamflow
-Accumulation options
Forecast Evolution
Version 2.0
coming December 2007
Additions include:
-ESP seasonal forecasts for easy comparison to official forecasts
-Multi-year plots
Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007
RFC Ensemble Forecasts
-Initially offered at NWS water supply points
-Display probability function for monthly volumes
-Tools included to query historical data and forecast ensemble members
-User customizable plots
Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007
Median Historical Runoff
& 1983 ensemble member
November – May Seasonal Runoff
Forecast VerificationDecember 2007
Data Visualization Error• MAE, RMSE, etc• Conditional on
Lead time, year
Skill• Skill relative to
Climatology• Conditional
Categorical•Traditional (NWS) verification including FAR and POD• Category definitions tied to climatology values (e.g. mean flow, terciles, etc.) or user definable
•Easy to understand• Meaningful• Accessible from forecasts• Dynamically generated plots from database
Plot credit: Chad Kahler
Future Directions
Climate Change Hydrologic Scenarios
Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios
Climate Variability and Hydrologic Response Relationships
Figure TS.5 (IPCC AR4, WG2). Illustrative map of future climate change impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions.
Climate Change:Fresh Water Projections
Extend NWS Product Suite?
• Current product suite covers hours to seasons;• Should we consider climate change scenarios and
build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation?
• User requirements from power companies, BoR, etc for climate change scenarios
Climate Change run off scenarios?
Years
Climate Change Scenarios
Example: Lake Granby inflows on the Colorado River
Two temperature scenarios:
•Historical Temperatures
•+0.2 deg F increase per year based on historical temperatures
Climate Change Scenarios (Con’t)
Corresponding simulations of Lake Granby inflows:
•Warmed simulation has earlier runoffs late in the simulation
Climate Change Scenarios (con’t)
Hungry Horse Dam inflows on Flathead River
Simulations with 1% less precipitation per year
Climate Change Scenarios (con’t)
• Ultimately include climate change scenarios in the ensemble services application for easy comparison with other datasets.
Summary
• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• New stuff coming in December
• We like feedback: [email protected]