WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Dec 17, 2015
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
West Virginia Coal and Energy Trends
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
West VirginiaCoal Production
Source: EIA
Year Coal Production (in thousand
short tons)2002 150,0782003 139,7112004 147,9932005 153,6502006 152,3742007 153,4802008 157,7782009 137,1272010 135,2202011 134,6622012 120,1382013 112,876 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Coal Production in
million short tons
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
West VirginiaCoal Production by County, 2013
Source: WV Office of Miner’s Health Safety and Training
Tons Produced in 2013
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EIA - Annual Coal Distribution Report 2013
Domestic Distribution of West Virginia Coal, 2013
Tons Distributed
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EIA* 2013 volume estimated by MU CBER.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thou
sand
Sho
rt T
ons
West Virginia Coal for Foreign Distribution, 2002-2013
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 U.S. Coal Projections (Base Case)
• U.S. total coal production will grow an average 0.3% per year through 2040.
• U.S. coal exports will increase gradually from 126 million tons in 2012 to 160 million tons in 2035 and remain constant through 2040
• U.S. coal consumption is expected to increase 0.3% annually from 2012 to 2040, remaining between the 2011 and 2012 levels for the entire period
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Consensus Forecast for WV Coal Production (million short tons), 2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
EIA EVA CBER WVU Consensus Forecast
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Coal to the WV Electric Power Sector, 2013
36,042 thousand short tons of WV coal was exported to the Electric Power Sector in other states. Source: EIA
58%
42%
Total: 29,301 thousand short tons
WV Coal Imported Coal
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Coal Distribution to West Virginia’sElectric Power Sector, 2006-2013
Total Coal to WV Power WV Coal to WV Power Imported Coal to WV PowerSource: EIA
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
WV Coal Distribution to U.S. Electric Power Sector, 2006-2013
WV Coal to U.S Power WV Coal to WV Power
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
World Energy Consumption
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
West VirginiaNatural Gas Production
Source: WV Geological and Economic Survey*West Virginia did not independently record Marcellus production before 2005.
Year Natural Gas Production
From Marcellus
Shale(in Mcf) (in Mcf)
2002 202,130,029 -*2003 202,061,508 -*2004 210,513,371 -*2005 216,934,506 853,5652006 223,149,384 4,555,2662007 233,970,534 10,065,0022008 257,301,632 19,325,8342009 265,315,404 33,640,8372010 297,876,644 74,439,1472011 400,791,090 149,915,8612012 538,759,150 301,700,0002013 742,375,637 541,300,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Natural Gas Production in billion cubic feet
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Regional Natural Gas Net Exports, 2013 (BCF)
Source: EIA and MU CBER calculations.
NY
DEMD
NJPA
OH
WV
VAKY
TN NC
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
U.S Natural Gas PricesHistorical Data, through Dec. 2014
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Henry Hub Natural Gas PriceRecent and Projections
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EIA
1/4/2
013
1/26/2
013
2/17/2
013
3/11/2
013
4/2/2
013
4/24/2
013
5/16/2
013
6/7/2
013
6/29/2
013
7/21/2
013
8/12/2
013
9/3/2
013
9/25/2
013
10/17/2
013
11/8/2
013
11/30/2
013
12/22/2
013
1/13/2
014
2/4/2
014
2/26/2
014
3/20/2
014
4/11/2
014
5/3/2
014
5/25/2
014
6/16/2
014
7/8/2
014
7/30/2
014
8/21/2
014
9/12/2
014
10/4/2
014
10/26/2
014
11/17/2
014
12/9/2
014
12/31/2
0140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Weekly Spot Prices: Appalachian Coal vs. Natural Gas
Natural Gas Northern Appalachia Central Appalachia
$/M
MBT
U
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Hydro Power
Total Capacity: 463.1 MW
Hawks Nest Hydro Facility
Licensed WV Hydro FacilitiesName Capacity (MW) Licensee Waterway
Belleville 42.0 American Minicipal Power, Inc Ohio RiverDam No. 4 1.9 PE Hydro Generation LLC Potomac RiverDam No. 5 1.2 PE Hydro Generation LLC Potomac RiverHawks Nest & Glen Ferris 108.2 Hawks Nest Hydro, LLC New RiverJennings Randolph 14.0 Fairlawn Hydroelectric Co., LLC Potomac RiverLake Lynn 51.2 Lake Lynn Generation, LLC Monongahela RiverLondon/Marmet 28.8 Appalachian Power Co. (VA) Kanawha RiverMillville 2.8 PE Hydro Generation LLC Shenandoah RiverNew Martinsville 35.7 City of New Martinsville (WV) Ohio RiverRacine 47.5 AEP Generation Resources, Inc. Ohio RiverSummersville 80.0 City of Summersville (WV) Gauley RiverWillow Island L&D 35.0 American Minicipal Power, Inc Ohio RiverWinfield 14.8 Appalachian Power Co. (VA) Kanawha River
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Hydro Power, Continued
Total Preliminary Permit Capacity: 66.8 MW
Opekiska Lock and Dam
Preliminary Permitted WV Hydro FacilitiesName Capacity (MW) Licensee Waterway
Hildebrand Lock & Dam 7.5 Lock+Hydro Friends Fund XLVI Monongahela RiverNew Cumberland Locks & Dam 49.8 FFP Project 121 LLC Ohio RiverStonewall Jackson 0.3 Mahoning Hydropower, LLC West Fork RiverSutton 9.2 James R. Robertson Elk River
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Wind Power
NedPower Mount Storm
Operating Capacity:583.1 MW
WV Wind FarmsOperating
Name Capacity (MW) Operator CountyBeech Ridge Energy, LLC 100.5 Invenergy Services, LLC GreenbrierLaurel Mountain 97.6 AES Wind Generation, Inc. RandolphMountaineer Wind Energy Center 66.0 FPL Energy, LLC TuckerNedPower Mount Storm 264.0 Shell Wind Energy, Inc. GrantPinnacle Wind Force, LLC 55.0 Edison Mission Energy Mineral
Under ConstructionName Capacity (MW) Operator County
New Creek* 160.0 AES Wind Generation, Inc. Grant
*A construction extension was granted by the PSC in September 2014. AES Wind Generation, Inc. is looking for a buyer for the project. (Construction has been stalled since early 2012.)
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Data Source: EIA Graphic created by Marshall University CBER
Net Interstate Electricity Trade (in short tons), 2012
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
2012 State Rankings by Net Interstate Electricity Trade Volume
Data Source: EIA Graphic created by Marshall University CBER
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
EIA Electric Trends
• EIA expects total U.S. generation of electricity to grow by 1.1% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016.
• The share of generation fueled by coal falls from 39.0% in 2014 to 37.6% in 2016.
• Natural-gas-fired generation accounted for a 27.3% share of total generation during 2014 and is expected to increase to a 28.1% share in 2016 as a result of declining natural gas prices.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014
Conventional C
oal
Integrated Coal-G
asifica
tion Combined Cycle (IG
CC)
Natural G
as-fire
d Conventional C
ombined Cycle
Natural G
as-fire
d Conventional C
ombustion Turb
ine
Advance
d Nucle
arW
ind
Solar P
V0
20406080
100120140
Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation Resources, Projected for 2019
2012
$/M
Wh
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EDGAR, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
World CO2 Emissions – The Top 10(million metric tons)
2010 2013 Change China 8,693 10,281 18%U.S. 5,500 5,298 -4%India 1,776 2,072 17%Russian Federation 1,710 1,803 5%Japan 1,237 1,361 10%Germany 822 845 3%Korea, Republic of 591 627 6%Canada 553 551 0%Brazil 435 512 18%Indonesia 451 487 8%
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, December 2014
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption
36%
23%
42%
2010
Coal Natural Gas Petroleum
32%
26%
42%
2013
Coal Natural Gas Petroleum
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
EPA 40 CR Part 60
EPAClean Power Plan Proposed Rule
• Tasks state environmental agencies to develop a plan that will reduce carbon emissions from existing power plants.
• Emissions reduction goals set by EPA.• Emissions reduction targets to be met by 4 “building
blocks.”– Electric Generating Unit (EGU) heat rate improvement– Re-dispatch coal-fired generation to natural gas combined cycle
Generation– Expand low- or zero-carbon (renewable) generating capacity– Expand use of demand side-efficiency
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
EPA Clean Power Plan TSD
EPAClean Power Plan Proposed Rule
Environmental Protection Agency Clean Power Plan: West Virginia Goals
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
MWh
Existing and Incremental Renewable Net Electric
Generation2,451,206 2,874,262 3,370,334 3,952,023 4,634,107 5,433,912 6,371,756 7,471,464 8,760,972 10,273,036
% of Avoided MWh Sales
Demand Side Energy Efficiency 1.77% 2.62% 3.60% 4.70% 5.83% 6.86% 7.81% 8.66% 9.43% 10.11%
West Virginia Proposed Goals
EGU Heat Rate Improvement: 6%Redispatch Coal Generation: 0 MWh (No NGCC)
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Clean Power Plan Renewable Energy Goals for West Virginia
Total EPA Goal
Feasible New Wind
Feasible New
Biomass
Feasible New
Hydro
Installed Solar or Purchased Wind to
Meet Goal
2030 MWh 10,273,026 760,368 595,680 440,102 8,476,876% of Goal 100% 7.4% 5.8% 4.3% 82.5%Additional Installed MW
6,983 310 200 123 650 (solar)3,100 (purchased
wind)Capacity Factor 28% 34% 41% 15% (solar)
28% (wind)
Estimates of Feasible Additions to Wind, Hydro and Biomass Energy & Net Needed to Meet Goal
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY
Thank you.