2016 West Florida Regional Overview
2016 West Florida Regional Overview
• The World vs West Florida
• Market Fundamental Snapshot
• Driving Forces in 2016
Presentation Outline
7 Graphs 3 Charts
1 Infographic 7 Gratuitous Self Serving Pictures of My Adorable Son Grayson
Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2015
Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2013
Taglines for each page belong in this spot.
Peaking market Falling market
Rising market Bottoming market
New York City, Houston, Fort Lauderdale Atlanta, Philadelphia,
Tampa, Orlando Hawaii, Boston, Seattle, Palm Beach, San Diego, Los Angeles, US, Orange County, DC
Chicago San Francisco, Miami, Dallas
Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2014
Taglines for each page belong in this spot.
Peaking market Falling market
Rising market Bottoming market
Palm Beach, Hawaii, Orange County Chicago Seattle, Philadelphia, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta, Hawaii
New York City, San Diego, Los Angeles, US
Miami, Dallas, Houston, Fort Lauderdale, Boston, DC
Retail Property Clock – 4th Quarter 2015
The “Occupancy” Recovery Nationwide
A net 99 million SF has been leased since 2009.
91.9%
Average Occupancy
From The Peak
From The Crash
0.3%
$15.21
Asking Rental Rate
5.3%
-0.3% 4Q ’07
-2.32% 2Q ’09
From The Peak
From The Crash
-$2.44 1Q ’08
+$0.19 4Q ’12
Florida’s Recovery
Rental rate and occupancy are only at about 2004 levels.
91.6%
Average Occupancy
From The Peak
From The Crash
0.4%
$16.32
Asking Rental Rate
0.1%
+3.61% 3Q ’06
-2.61% 1Q ’10
From The Peak
From The Crash
-$2.75 1Q ’08
+0.70 3Q ’13
Tampa / St. Petersburg
Tampa now has seen three straight years of increases in occupancy. The pressure on rental rates should subside as the development
pipeline begins to fill.
91.2%
Average Occupancy
From The Peak
From The Crash
0.4%
$13.72
Asking Rental Rate
0.4%
-2.9% 1Q ’06
-2.6% 2Q ’10
From The Peak
From The Crash
-$2.64 3Q ’08
+0.28 2Q ’14
Sarasota / Bradenton
Sarasota has been on a tear, with some of the strongest rental rate growth in the nation over the past 12 months, driven by the new
tenant activity around University Town Center.
90.%
Average Occupancy
1.%
$16.68
Asking Rental Rate
16.8%
Fort Myers
The Ft. Myers market has struggled to find a bottom since the housing crash devastated the market, but has shown consistent
absorption over the past year.
89.1%
Average Occupancy
0.7%
$13.13
Asking Rental Rate
0.4%
Naples
Naples has the strongest rents in the state outside of Miami, driven by quality product and surging ‘high-street’ prices along 5th avenue.
90.2%
Average Occupancy
1.2%
$17.70
Asking Rental Rate
6.3%
Orlando
• Orlando’s rental rate has yet to see any recovery, despite large increases in key submarkets and within new developments.
90.8%
Average Occupancy
From The Peak
From The Crash
0.0%
$14.17
Asking Rental Rate
0.1%
-1.7% 2Q ’08
+2.3% 3Q ’09
From The Peak
From The Crash
-$3.51 2Q ’08
+0.07 1Q ’15
Consumer Spending Patterns
2006 = $1,000
$110
$98
$110
$51
$49
$51
$96
$583
2009 = $943
$119
$107
$136
$59
$47
$44
$87
$475
2006 = $1,258
$143
$149
$245
$75
$60
$38
$96
$586
Change
+30%
+53%
+123%
+48%
+22%
-24%
0%
0%
Baby Boomers
Millenials
Generation X
Generation Z
50-70 Years Old 24% of US population 34-50 Years Old 20% of US population
18-34 Years Old 23% of US population 2-18 Years Old 24% of US population
• Student Loans • $35,200 • $392/ Month
• Credit Cards
• $3,200
Millenials and Debt
Student debt levels have risen at unprecedented levels.
• Student Loans • $57,600 • $641/ Month
• Credit Cards
• $7,800
Millenials and Debt – Graduate Degree?
Graduate students face much higher debt levels, with marginally higher starting salaries, putting significant pressure on spending.
Development in 2016
Traditional grocery-anchored neighborhood centers are back.
Development in 2016
New players in the market may challenge the market paradigms.
Development in 2016
• Give Me Your Business Card • www.icsc.org/events-and-programs/details/west-florida-idea-exchange4/ • http://www.jllretail.com/research
Get The Report…