WELSH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS OPINION POLL 2011 APRIL 2011 Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE Tel: 02920 435800 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
Mar 12, 2016
WELSH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS OPINION POLL 2011
APRIL 2011
Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE
Tel: 02920 435800
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk
INTRODUCTION
This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming Welsh Assembly on 5th May 2011.
METHODOLOGY
The opinion poll consisted of 1005 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters between 4th April and 5th April 2011 and 44 surveys completed online within the same timeframe. This totals 1049 surveys.
The telephone interviews were conducted at RMG:Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during the day and in the evening.
For the telephone survey target numbers of interviews were set according to parliamentary constituency population. After interviewing, the online data was merged with the telephone data and the survey was weighted by parliamentary constituency, socio-economic group, gender, age group, household tenure and Welsh language skills in order to provide the most representative result possible.
The overall election prediction is calculated from question Q2a and Q2b. The results have also been weighted by likelihood to vote (Q1). Those who stated they were certain to vote are weighted 1, those who said ‘9’, 0.9 and so on. Only those who gave an answer of 5 or more have been included in the overall prediction. Those who said ‘don’t know/refused’ at both Q2a and Q2b were not included in the prediction.
Full weighted and unweighted tabulations are included in this report.
The following discussion uses the weighted results.
DISCUSSION
Table 1 (Q2c)
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention %
Labour 50.8%
Conservative 20.3%
Plaid Cymru 16.7%
Liberal Democrat 7.6%
Other 1.5%
Green 1.4%
UKIP 1.2%
BNP .4%
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party (748)
Table 2 (Q3)
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
%
A Labour minority government 16.7%
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition 28.5%
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition 8.4%
A Labour- Conservative coalition 7.4%
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition 12.4%
Don't know 26.6%
Base: All respondents (1040)
The table to the left shows the aggregated, weighted overall voting intention. It shows that Labour have fractionally over half of the vote share (50.8%), whilst the Conservatives have just over a fifth (20.3%). Plaid Cymru are the third party at 16.7%, whilst the Liberal Democrats have 7.6% of the vote share. Table 2 shows that the respondents would prefer a Labour-Plaid coalition if no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly. A Labour minority government is the second favourite option, although over a quarter did not know what they would prefer in this situation.
Table 3
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
%
Yes 56.2%
No 30.9%
Don't know 12.9%
Base: All respondents (1040)
Table 4
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
%
Yes 55.8%
No 36.2%
Don't know 8.0%
Base: All respondents (1040)
Table 5
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
%
Yes 40.2%
No 41.6%
Don't know 18.2%
Base: All respondents (1040)
Table 3 shows that over half of the respondents (56.2%) would like to see the Assembly gaining responsibility for the Police and the criminal justice system, whilst 30.9% do not. Similarly, over half of respondents (55.8%) would like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes, whilst 36.2% do not. Two fifths of respondents (40.2%) do think that they will see a non Labour-led Assembly in their lifetime, although slightly more (41.6%) do not think they will see this.
Table 6
Q7. Does this make you feel? %
Happy 21.1%
Frustrated 20.3%
Neither 58.6%
Base: All respondents (1040)
Table 7 Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
%
Yes 25.1%
No 60.2%
Don't know 14.7%
Base: All respondents (1040)
Table 8
Q9. Does this make you feel? %
Happy 27.6%
Frustrated 17.9%
Neither 54.5%
Base: All respondents (1040)
According to Table 6, most people are neither happy nor frustrated by the likelihood of Labour remaining in power in the Assembly (58.6%). Three-fifths of respondents do not think that they will ever see the Conservatives as part of the Assembly Government (60.2%), although a quarter (25.1%) think it is possible. Over half of respondents are neither happy nor frustrated by the likelihood of the Conservatives gaining power in Wales.
WEIGHTED TABULATIONS
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
1.4%1.4%.0%2.5%2.0%.8%.5%1.4%
770643114
64.2%64.7%65.7%57.5%68.4%67.3%63.6%64.4%
35331620145141243121670
3.8%4.1%6.4%5.7%2.2%2.8%5.0%3.9%
21202145101041
8.4%9.8%6.3%11.7%5.6%10.0%8.1%9.1%
464822911361594
3.8%2.6%.0%2.7%2.7%3.4%4.5%3.2%
211307612933
3.3%2.9%3.5%2.8%5.3%1.2%4.9%3.2%
181417114933
7.8%3.8%8.7%9.0%2.6%5.8%5.3%6.0%
43193235211062
.7%1.7%3.4%.4%2.2%1.1%.9%1.2%
481144212
1.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%1.3%2.2%.9%
63000549
.3%2.4%.0%1.1%3.0%.5%1.4%1.3%
2120362313
5.3%5.9%6.1%6.6%6.0%5.7%3.5%5.6%
29292171221758
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%2.8%.4%.0%1.1%.0%.0%
01210100
81.2%73.4%66.4%58.6%52.8%46.0%10.3%
173151579460243
9.6%3.2%5.2%4.9%4.1%.0%.0%
214128500
9.2%9.3%8.8%6.9%8.9%5.6%28.4%
24021111038
.0%1.8%2.5%6.0%5.4%2.9%9.3%
08610622
.0%1.8%3.1%4.8%6.0%6.3%.0%
0878730
.0%4.0%4.2%7.7%12.6%15.4%.0%
01710121480
.0%.0%1.5%1.2%.9%.0%21.1%
0042106
.0%.0%1.9%1.1%1.0%3.0%.0%
0042120
.0%.6%.8%1.1%.0%3.2%20.4%
0322025
.0%3.1%5.2%7.6%7.1%17.7%10.5%
0131212893
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
214292361611135327
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
2.5%3.2%.0%1.2%
14010
53.0%66.9%42.4%65.9%
197422555
5.6%4.3%7.5%3.6%
25430
10.7%5.9%10.6%9.3%
47579
.0%.9%4.8%3.6%
01230
2.3%2.0%11.3%2.9%
12624
7.3%8.4%8.3%5.4%
39446
.0%.0%6.0%1.1%
0039
.0%.0%.0%1.1%
0009
7.9%.0%.0%1.3%
30011
10.7%8.4%9.2%4.8%
49540
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
1.4%2.0%1.2%.0%.0%1.8%
1012002
62.1%74.3%69.2%57.1%72.8%68.4%
43130111122165
4.0%2.3%5.7%.0%.0%2.7%
2819003
10.7%3.4%3.4%13.6%11.2%7.6%
7415337
3.8%.0%2.5%.0%3.5%2.1%
2604012
3.1%2.1%2.8%8.4%2.9%3.8%
2114214
5.6%9.3%7.6%.0%3.2%6.6%
39412016
1.3%.0%.0%12.1%.0%.8%
900301
.9%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.6%
700002
1.3%2.2%1.8%.0%3.2%.0%
913010
5.8%4.4%5.9%8.9%3.2%3.7%
4029214
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
140000000000
.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0670000000000
.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
004100000000
.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000940000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000033000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000003300000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000620000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000012000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%
00000000900
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%
000000000130
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%
000000000058
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents CaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.4%.0%1.4%
0000001014
56.7%70.4%68.3%78.5%42.5%68.7%58.6%52.2%64.4%
161917199191211670
2.7%6.4%4.0%4.2%14.9%.0%.0%3.8%3.9%
1211300141
15.4%9.8%7.6%8.1%16.5%10.4%4.2%19.9%9.1%
4322431494
.0%6.8%.0%.0%5.5%7.0%15.2%.0%3.2%
0200123033
3.3%3.0%3.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%12.1%3.2%
1110000333
8.9%.0%4.7%9.2%8.0%.0%13.1%7.9%6.0%
3012203262
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.1%1.2%
0000000112
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.5%.0%.0%.9%
000001009
6.1%.0%.0%.0%12.6%.0%.0%.0%1.3%
2000300013
6.8%3.7%12.0%.0%.0%10.4%4.6%.0%5.6%
2130031058
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
29272524222820221040
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Clwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff NorthCardiff Central
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000
53.7%66.3%52.5%71.2%74.6%71.2%64.7%65.5%
1417142121251918
.0%3.9%7.1%2.9%3.1%.0%.0%3.9%
01211001
27.4%7.9%3.9%2.9%3.5%8.1%11.5%10.9%
72111333
4.1%11.2%9.6%3.5%6.1%.0%.0%6.7%
13312002
.0%.0%9.6%.0%2.9%2.3%2.8%6.5%
00301112
3.2%6.5%7.5%3.9%6.7%5.9%8.6%3.4%
12212231
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000
3.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
10000000
.0%.0%9.8%.0%.0%2.4%3.0%.0%
00300110
8.2%4.1%.0%15.6%3.1%10.1%9.4%3.1%
21051431
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2625272929363028
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
MontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd West
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%3.2%.0%3.0%.0%3.0%.0%.0%.0%7.0%
0101010002
64.7%68.8%78.1%61.9%66.8%59.9%62.5%66.7%64.5%60.6%
14181917161514171516
5.7%.0%9.6%6.2%8.0%11.8%9.3%.0%4.1%.0%
1022232010
4.0%3.2%3.9%9.5%12.4%18.3%12.5%11.6%14.1%12.5%
1113353333
.0%3.1%.0%.0%.0%3.6%.0%6.2%.0%.0%
0100010200
8.8%.0%.0%11.2%.0%.0%.0%11.9%12.8%10.3%
2003000333
4.7%7.2%8.4%8.1%4.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.1%
1222100001
3.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%12.0%.0%.0%.0%
1000003000
8.3%4.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.7%.0%.0%
2100000100
.0%3.2%.0%.0%.0%3.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100010000
.0%7.2%.0%.0%8.2%.0%3.8%.0%4.4%6.5%
0200201012
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21272528242622252327
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
TorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeath
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
4.7%3.0%.0%4.0%.0%3.0%3.5%.0%4.3%3.1%
1101011011
60.4%63.1%73.6%65.5%74.2%67.6%62.8%76.3%51.9%36.6%
16212015191816211210
3.3%2.6%3.3%8.8%.0%8.7%.0%.0%8.9%4.1%
1112020021
6.5%5.2%10.4%9.1%3.3%3.5%.0%3.2%7.7%9.2%
2232110123
.0%7.4%7.2%8.1%.0%.0%3.4%3.8%.0%.0%
0222001100
.0%2.5%5.5%.0%.0%10.9%.0%.0%.0%3.3%
0120030001
3.8%8.7%.0%4.5%7.1%6.4%15.3%6.7%14.4%8.9%
1301224233
3.8%.0%.0%.0%11.9%.0%3.9%.0%4.3%6.9%
1000301012
.0%4.7%.0%.0%3.5%.0%.0%.0%3.8%.0%
0200100010
.0%2.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%6.2%.0%.0%
0100000200
17.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%3.7%4.8%28.0%
5000003118
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
27342823262725272329
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of Clwyd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%4.6%.0%4.7%
0101
63.1%61.7%74.6%66.6%
13162117
4.2%3.5%3.0%.0%
1110
10.5%14.9%9.4%3.7%
2431
4.1%7.6%.0%.0%
1200
.0%.0%2.9%.0%
0010
13.4%4.0%3.5%10.6%
3113
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
4.7%3.7%6.6%14.5%
1124
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
10000101
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.3%.0%.1%
01000101
.2%.0%.0%.4%.0%.0%.0%.1%
10010001
37.7%26.1%31.9%28.7%29.3%34.5%36.3%32.4%
1891129655211363302
.0%.7%.0%.5%1.1%.0%.0%.3%
03012003
.4%1.1%3.2%.5%.5%.6%1.0%.7%
25111226
.9%1.3%.0%.5%.5%1.2%2.3%1.1%
550114410
8.7%11.8%3.3%10.4%9.9%12.8%6.1%10.1%
445112318421194
4.6%4.9%3.4%5.1%4.3%4.7%4.9%4.7%
2321111815944
10.6%12.8%11.2%6.1%9.0%13.6%17.8%11.6%
5355314164431108
31.1%34.7%28.8%41.3%40.5%26.0%27.3%32.8%
156149893728548306
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
50343027225179327174933
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
0100000
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
37.2%32.8%30.6%31.1%38.8%27.8%18.5%
8131654539112
.0%.0%.5%1.4%.0%.0%.0%
0012000
.0%.9%.5%.7%1.0%.0%.0%
0311100
.0%.0%.8%.6%4.2%7.8%.0%
0021430
4.7%7.0%12.0%11.9%11.3%21.8%19.3%
12825171292
.0%5.0%3.4%5.8%4.1%3.9%21.2%
02078423
14.6%12.8%13.5%10.0%4.1%4.5%41.0%
3512914425
24.2%36.2%32.6%32.6%28.4%26.5%.0%
5145694729110
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
214012131431024013
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
0001
.0%.0%.0%.1%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.1%
0001
27.5%18.8%27.4%34.6%
81912264
.0%2.3%.0%.1%
0201
.0%.0%.0%.8%
0006
.0%.0%.0%1.3%
00010
3.5%10.8%9.0%10.3%
111479
3.6%3.4%11.9%4.5%
13534
17.0%3.2%16.3%12.2%
53793
31.3%59.3%26.0%29.8%
95811228
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
289843763
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
001000
.0%.0%.6%.0%.0%.0%
001000
.0%.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%
001000
34.6%29.1%26.5%14.7%28.6%32.1%
21411392828
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
.8%2.4%.0%4.9%.0%.0%
510100
.6%5.9%1.7%5.3%3.2%.0%
422110
5.6%9.6%34.8%4.7%.0%5.2%
35451104
5.0%5.1%4.3%11.7%.0%3.1%
3126203
13.0%9.2%4.3%16.9%18.3%12.1%
80363510
34.0%30.0%20.9%36.8%35.7%44.1%
210113061038
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
61937146172786
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
100000
.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.0%.0%1.0%.0%.0%.0%
001000
30.4%42.0%32.7%32.1%36.7%44.0%
2041731111227
.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.5%
200001
.6%.0%1.8%3.1%.0%.0%
402100
1.2%.0%1.1%2.7%.0%.0%
801100
10.5%11.6%6.9%13.0%5.8%10.3%
7157426
4.2%11.3%8.1%.0%5.7%3.3%
2858022
10.6%8.6%18.6%19.4%8.6%11.1%
71317637
35.5%22.0%22.8%23.9%40.6%26.9%
23792181317
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
6704194333362
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.3%.0%.0%.0%.4%.0%.1%
01000101
5.6%6.1%18.1%6.5%5.0%5.7%4.2%5.8%
2826515919754
.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%.0%.1%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%1.3%.0%.0%
0000100
19.2%4.8%6.1%5.9%6.7%7.7%.0%
419138730
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%3.1%.0%
0010
17.1%2.2%6.3%5.9%
52345
.0%.0%.0%.1%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%3.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%
010000
5.9%5.0%5.5%5.0%14.2%3.4%
3728143
.0%.0%.6%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%1.4%.0%.0%.0%
001000
6.4%4.5%5.5%5.9%2.6%3.0%
4325212
.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
Base: Those likely to vote Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
6206201412108
28.4%21.2%38.9%25.3%17.9%51.6%14.8%20.2%24.9%58.4%32.8%
7610741235412306
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
26272526222420241821933
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
23218421244
50.7%4.7%60.8%38.7%9.4%20.0%13.2%23.8%8.3%33.8%35.8%
12115825362911
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2418242223232424252831
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
063211336210
44.1%36.7%40.8%40.0%43.0%42.8%31.2%5.3%38.0%48.3%48.2%30.5%
10811810861812137
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
222226202419181922252722
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
3473324
19.1%38.6%26.8%58.8%33.4%39.1%33.3%
497127129
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
20242720203028
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%6.5%.1%
00000000011
6.7%7.0%4.0%18.6%.0%3.9%5.1%15.1%4.6%8.4%5.8%
221501141254
.0%.0%.0%.0%4.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00001000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00000010001
30.6%38.8%42.4%34.7%39.3%32.7%30.7%36.4%46.1%14.0%32.4%
810119986983302
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
00000100003
.0%.0%3.9%.0%.0%4.3%4.5%4.3%4.6%.0%.7%
00100111106
.0%5.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.1%
020000000010
13.0%3.1%10.7%.0%14.4%3.7%19.6%4.3%5.1%.0%10.1%
313031411094
.0%17.4%.0%.0%14.5%.0%13.9%4.4%9.9%4.8%4.7%
050030312144
21.3%6.7%.0%21.4%9.8%.0%6.3%15.4%4.9%7.8%11.6%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
3.7%.0%3.8%4.2%.0%3.5%4.6%.0%8.1%7.8%11.5%
10110110224
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.8%
00000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
27.0%28.0%19.5%47.8%29.4%35.9%22.9%48.7%33.6%26.4%23.4%
7551078512877
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.6%3.8%.0%.0%5.7%6.3%
00000110022
11.5%47.8%7.9%.0%24.1%12.9%22.7%20.1%42.4%13.2%2.8%
392063551141
.0%4.9%.0%4.6%3.6%3.9%24.8%3.6%.0%.0%3.3%
01011161001
7.2%14.6%8.0%4.7%33.4%19.2%8.1%3.8%7.5%13.2%14.1%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%3.9%.0%12.0%9.6%5.4%.0%.0%7.5%16.6%4.1%
001032100251
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
39.4%28.7%30.3%32.3%32.8%23.0%32.0%58.9%20.9%28.0%24.7%41.9%
9687846115779
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%6.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.5%.0%4.6%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000001010000
.0%.0%.0%5.6%4.5%.0%.0%4.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000110010000
11.6%4.8%4.2%14.2%.0%.0%5.7%5.3%4.1%4.3%6.8%18.5%
311300111124
4.9%4.2%7.4%.0%4.0%15.4%.0%6.5%8.0%3.6%.0%4.9%
112013012101
.0%25.6%13.5%8.0%3.7%4.8%19.4%14.7%28.9%8.3%3.8%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
6.7%.0%10.5%.0%9.6%7.6%7.2%
1030222
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
36.8%36.3%32.0%18.4%38.5%28.4%32.5%
7994899
.0%4.9%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
20.0%.0%.0%9.2%4.5%11.2%10.0%
4002133
.0%4.2%3.3%.0%.0%8.1%3.7%
0110021
17.5%15.9%27.4%13.6%14.0%5.6%13.4%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and 'don't know' at Q2a
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
1.5%3.3%.0%3.2%.0%1.6%4.3%2.2%
34020237
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.4%.3%
10000011
.4%.0%.0%.0%1.5%.0%.0%.3%
10001001
.0%.8%.0%.0%1.7%.0%.0%.3%
01001001
43.7%40.4%53.4%49.1%40.3%39.9%40.6%42.5%
8345532214526128
.0%2.5%.0%1.5%1.7%.0%1.4%.9%
03011013
11.1%8.7%11.5%11.3%10.8%9.3%10.2%10.2%
211017610631
4.3%4.5%.0%1.7%6.0%7.1%1.4%4.3%
850138113
15.3%12.9%11.6%6.2%11.8%18.9%17.2%14.4%
2914146211143
23.3%26.9%23.6%27.1%26.2%23.2%23.5%24.6%
443021714261574
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1891129655211363302
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%2.0%3.1%4.2%.0%.0%.0%
0322000
.0%.0%1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010000
.0%.0%1.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010000
.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
62.4%44.7%41.3%38.4%48.4%13.6%.0%
55927171920
.0%1.4%1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0210000
12.9%10.7%10.1%11.3%10.7%.0%.0%
11475400
.0%3.4%4.6%4.6%5.4%13.5%.0%
0432220
24.7%14.4%15.0%6.3%10.6%30.1%100.0%
219103432
.0%22.7%21.8%35.1%25.0%42.9%.0%
03014161050
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
8131654539112
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%.0%2.5%
0007
.0%.0%.0%.3%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.3%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.3%
0001
49.3%52.4%53.8%41.1%
4106108
.0%.0%.0%1.1%
0003
12.8%23.6%10.3%9.2%
14124
.0%.0%10.1%4.5%
00112
24.6%.0%15.2%15.0%
20240
13.3%24.0%10.5%25.6%
14168
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
81912264
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
3.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
700000
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.9%
000001
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
44.1%32.0%42.6%34.2%33.1%37.5%
943171310
1.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
7.7%24.6%20.9%32.2%13.9%6.5%
1638112
4.4%.0%5.5%.0%19.4%.0%
902020
15.0%16.9%13.1%.0%11.4%12.2%
3225013
23.6%26.5%18.0%33.6%22.2%40.8%
51371211
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21411392828
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
2.3%.0%2.9%.0%.0%3.4%
501001
.0%.0%2.9%.0%.0%.0%
001000
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
39.4%30.5%38.1%61.0%63.4%61.5%
805127817
.9%.0%3.2%.0%.0%.0%
201000
11.4%11.8%11.4%.0%7.0%4.2%
2324011
4.2%5.7%7.7%11.2%.0%.0%
912100
14.3%15.7%25.2%19.0%.0%6.6%
2938202
26.7%36.2%8.7%8.8%29.6%24.3%
5463147
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2041731111227
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and 'don't know' at Q2a
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
9.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.2%
1000000007
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
44.7%26.9%68.9%56.5%64.2%62.5%59.2%20.8%41.3%42.5%
536554521128
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.2%.0%.0%.9%
0000001003
10.2%33.9%10.9%11.7%.0%.0%11.8%10.0%.0%10.2%
14110011031
16.7%.0%.0%21.1%.0%.0%.0%14.4%.0%4.3%
20020001013
9.8%7.3%.0%.0%35.8%.0%17.8%32.6%30.5%14.4%
11003023143
8.8%31.9%20.1%10.7%.0%37.5%.0%22.2%28.2%24.6%
13210202174
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
10119986983302
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.3%.0%.0%10.9%
0000001001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
22.2%27.9%32.6%50.1%16.0%62.1%21.0%46.0%75.4%56.0%
1324172355
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.2%
0000000001
.0%.0%14.4%.0%18.2%.0%56.2%29.4%.0%.0%
0010105200
.0%.0%13.2%.0%17.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010100000
59.8%17.1%14.7%29.2%16.6%15.2%.0%.0%12.1%10.8%
3212120011
17.9%55.0%25.1%20.7%31.4%22.7%11.5%24.6%12.5%11.1%
1622231211
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
510785128778
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%11.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.3%.0%.0%
01000000100
.0%.0%20.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00100000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%20.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00100000000
41.6%21.0%60.0%32.3%58.3%21.6%27.8%41.4%11.2%32.3%.0%
32326123120
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%15.6%7.7%.0%.0%30.4%11.1%.0%39.0%
00011002102
.0%.0%.0%.0%9.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%13.7%.0%
00001000010
.0%35.0%.0%15.7%24.3%18.8%30.6%.0%.0%27.3%36.6%
03013120022
58.4%32.6%.0%36.4%.0%59.6%41.7%28.2%66.4%26.7%24.4%
43020332621
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
784611577975
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%10.3%.0%.0%10.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010010000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%9.2%.0%.0%
0000000100
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
37.9%12.7%67.5%46.9%76.7%54.2%47.8%11.7%41.4%65.6%
3162654135
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%10.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000010000
12.2%13.5%.0%24.4%.0%.0%32.3%9.3%.0%.0%
1101003100
.0%30.0%.0%.0%.0%12.8%.0%.0%14.1%.0%
0300010010
24.4%22.3%10.5%.0%11.9%.0%9.8%.0%14.1%11.9%
2210101011
25.5%21.5%11.7%28.8%11.4%11.8%10.0%69.7%30.4%22.5%
2211111622
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
7994899968
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.4%1.7%.0%1.7%.0%1.9%2.5%1.5%
660305412
.0%.9%.0%.7%1.4%.0%.0%.4%
03012003
.5%2.1%4.9%1.1%1.2%.7%1.9%1.2%
27122239
1.2%1.5%.0%.6%.6%1.5%2.9%1.4%
550114410
16.6%16.9%10.8%17.2%15.8%19.8%12.1%16.7%
6560231235217125
8.0%7.3%5.3%7.0%7.4%8.9%6.7%7.6%
31261131123957
21.0%19.4%23.0%9.9%15.2%25.0%29.7%20.3%
8269418226642152
51.3%50.2%56.0%61.8%58.5%42.2%44.2%50.8%
201180101118611162380
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
39135718179147263141748
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%1.7%1.7%1.6%1.8%.0%.0%
0532100
.0%.0%.7%1.7%.0%.0%.0%
0012000
.0%1.6%1.1%.8%1.4%.0%.0%
0521100
.0%.0%1.0%.8%5.7%8.8%.0%
0021430
16.6%13.1%18.6%18.7%20.7%24.7%19.3%
24232221692
.0%7.6%6.0%8.8%8.3%8.6%21.2%
0241010633
41.4%21.8%22.3%14.5%11.0%14.5%59.5%
5703817858
42.0%54.3%48.6%53.0%51.1%43.4%.0%
5175846239160
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
12322172118763613
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%4.0%1.7%
00110
.0%2.6%.0%.1%
0201
.0%.0%.0%1.5%
0009
.0%.0%.0%1.7%
00010
10.1%17.3%15.0%17.0%
2155103
5.2%3.9%18.5%7.6%
13646
34.2%3.6%25.9%21.9%
739133
50.4%72.5%36.6%48.5%
106313295
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
208634608
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.5%4.3%2.3%.0%.0%.0%
713000
.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
1.6%2.8%.0%5.4%.0%.0%
810100
.8%6.9%2.0%5.9%4.3%.0%
422110
10.5%19.6%48.6%10.5%5.2%8.7%
51659216
8.3%6.0%7.0%13.0%7.3%3.8%
4128223
23.1%16.5%9.4%18.7%28.2%19.2%
1135113614
53.6%44.0%30.8%46.4%55.0%68.4%
261143771149
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
48731122152172
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.2%.0%5.3%.0%.0%2.1%
704001
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.1%
200001
1.0%.0%3.4%4.1%.0%.0%
603100
1.5%.0%1.4%3.6%.0%.0%
801100
17.2%20.0%13.0%17.4%11.3%17.4%
94710438
6.7%16.6%13.0%4.8%7.7%4.6%
36610122
18.4%18.4%32.7%34.2%11.6%20.1%
100625939
53.5%45.1%31.2%35.9%69.4%53.7%
292152491723
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
5453477252443
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
202115171815151618748
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22182118221721222220
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1820141512212120202118
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
16221818122321201920
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
5.0%.0%.0%5.3%.0%6.6%.0%.0%7.6%1.5%
10010100112
.0%.0%.0%.0%5.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.4%
0000100003
.0%4.7%.0%.0%5.8%6.0%13.2%5.3%.0%1.2%
0100112109
7.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.4%
20000000010
9.4%29.7%6.6%24.4%5.0%25.9%13.5%11.3%.0%16.7%
261414220125
31.5%.0%.0%29.3%.0%18.4%7.0%19.3%5.6%7.6%
60050313157
13.9%3.7%37.2%12.6%15.6%8.3%34.5%23.2%14.1%20.3%
316231543152
32.6%62.0%56.2%28.4%68.6%34.8%31.8%40.9%72.6%50.8%
713851255613380
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.5%.0%4.0%4.4%
0000001011
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.5%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%5.8%4.1%.0%.0%7.1%8.9%.0%
0001100220
8.6%.0%31.4%16.4%29.3%28.8%72.2%26.2%4.0%17.1%
20736515613
.0%5.6%8.3%4.9%31.5%5.2%.0%.0%4.6%.0%
0121710010
21.4%15.6%41.7%37.9%12.9%16.0%8.9%16.5%23.9%32.3%
5397332456
70.0%78.8%18.6%34.9%22.2%50.0%14.4%50.3%54.6%41.7%
15144659311128
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%4.6%6.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.2%.0%.0%
01100000100
.0%.0%.0%7.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00010000000
.0%.0%6.2%.0%7.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00101000000
6.4%5.5%.0%.0%7.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
11001000000
16.4%.0%.0%12.7%15.0%4.3%5.0%19.5%25.4%13.1%58.7%
300221145311
.0%4.9%21.4%.0%18.7%8.4%4.3%.0%5.4%4.2%4.9%
01302210111
9.2%18.7%6.7%29.1%44.1%34.4%19.9%5.1%.0%16.6%24.8%
24145741045
68.0%66.3%59.3%50.8%8.0%52.9%70.8%75.4%64.0%66.1%11.6%
121388111151513142
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%4.8%.0%.0%4.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010010000
.0%5.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.9%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000010000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
30.8%5.1%.0%15.0%7.3%14.6%26.5%16.6%5.5%5.5%
5103136311
.0%15.9%4.9%.0%.0%15.2%4.8%5.3%9.3%9.8%
0410041122
33.3%25.2%45.2%14.9%30.6%7.3%21.5%.0%33.6%22.4%
5683425064
35.8%48.6%45.0%70.1%62.1%55.1%47.3%78.1%51.5%62.4%
61181371310161012
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
8885265364426174
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
267382820136
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
214292361611135327
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
62510132
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
1297162515
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
211651049106059
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
31.0%21.7%60.5%26.3%26.7%23.4%27.6%26.6%
1711061866558553277
12.2%12.7%.0%8.2%9.9%16.6%14.8%12.4%
6762021206028129
7.0%7.9%3.3%4.8%8.0%8.9%7.8%7.4%
383811217321577
9.4%7.2%3.4%6.8%8.6%9.5%8.9%8.4%
523511718341787
24.4%33.1%26.1%28.1%29.2%29.4%27.0%28.5%
1341628716010652296
16.1%17.4%6.7%25.8%17.5%12.1%13.9%16.7%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
52.4%28.0%27.6%24.0%19.0%28.5%19.9%
11120653922155
.0%10.8%12.4%14.6%16.7%6.5%28.9%
04629241938
9.2%9.7%4.7%2.4%8.6%6.3%20.0%
2421141035
9.5%7.9%7.0%12.3%10.1%5.8%.0%
23417201130
19.3%28.0%32.1%29.7%27.8%27.8%9.3%
4120764831152
9.6%15.5%16.2%17.1%17.7%25.0%22.0%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
48.3%27.4%24.1%25.7%
173012217
2.3%5.1%16.0%13.6%
168115
5.3%3.9%11.4%7.7%
24665
2.8%5.8%9.8%8.8%
16574
24.9%35.2%18.7%28.4%
93910239
16.3%22.6%20.0%15.7%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
28.1%31.2%21.2%16.7%24.1%25.9%
19513344725
12.2%13.5%16.0%8.2%17.4%7.4%
84526257
8.0%6.5%4.1%20.4%3.5%7.0%
5637417
9.3%.0%6.1%17.6%12.5%5.4%
65010445
23.9%32.4%42.4%28.3%26.1%38.0%
16613686836
18.5%16.4%10.1%8.8%16.5%16.3%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
39.6%22.8%26.2%26.0%22.2%20.1%38.3%8.2%79.9%26.6%58.5%
61521125772417434
8.2%10.9%12.5%24.6%14.6%8.4%18.1%.0%.0%19.8%9.5%
17352353110036
21.2%6.6%11.3%6.9%11.5%11.1%1.5%37.2%10.1%13.5%5.2%
344564415123
.0%8.9%7.6%11.6%8.3%12.9%7.5%.0%.0%6.5%1.6%
0603113450011
18.7%33.6%29.8%20.9%32.6%20.5%19.2%6.5%10.0%.0%10.4%
32251220117121106
12.3%17.3%12.6%10.1%10.8%27.0%15.4%48.1%.0%33.7%14.8%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
Base: All respondents Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
42422261177
25.8%6.6%6.9%16.6%4.0%4.0%.0%13.6%9.7%8.4%
72241103287
14.5%29.6%10.7%26.8%37.5%23.6%36.5%13.1%27.7%28.5%
4937951036296
12.4%10.1%17.2%20.1%18.2%26.0%.0%9.5%29.7%16.7%
335546026174
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2829272524222820221040
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
2120121113
7.5%4.6%7.3%8.2%15.5%.0%.0%6.9%7.9%20.9%
2122400236
37.3%32.8%24.8%31.5%37.9%27.5%40.4%44.7%15.6%17.8%
977897121365
19.6%27.6%3.4%15.6%3.6%17.8%7.0%10.2%12.5%3.4%
5614152341
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
25232726252729293630
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
24122030024
3.6%7.2%12.8%10.1%17.9%10.2%4.0%4.3%7.3%10.8%9.9%
12334311232
45.4%33.5%27.1%25.7%25.6%17.6%27.7%23.7%40.2%34.7%40.3%
1196755771099
14.7%17.4%23.6%21.1%9.3%20.5%40.5%38.7%23.2%27.9%4.0%
4566251011671
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2527232921272528242622
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
3220714032
6.3%4.0%3.1%3.5%7.8%14.2%12.8%.0%11.2%7.1%
1111254032
32.3%23.7%12.9%22.0%13.9%35.1%40.5%27.2%31.1%35.4%
764541211689
8.6%19.1%2.9%25.8%10.2%7.5%9.8%60.8%11.9%21.8%
25163331436
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428232627
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Base: All respondents Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
29.6%41.4%31.2%18.7%28.6%25.8%30.4%35.1%21.4%26.6%
8128576975277
3.9%6.2%19.9%9.1%3.8%12.1%13.4%24.0%7.7%12.4%
125213452129
13.7%6.1%14.1%8.6%7.9%8.3%19.7%4.6%3.7%7.4%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
15.5%22.2%37.5%14.4%26.8%23.7%27.3%31.4%41.0%32.9%
4510476891510
12.2%8.3%20.6%30.3%12.0%24.2%21.2%3.8%20.6%15.6%
3268376175
7.8%4.5%6.6%.0%4.2%6.8%4.1%3.0%2.4%9.5%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
21.9%28.0%24.5%20.6%24.7%41.6%7.4%26.7%16.5%16.9%25.7%
586651128446
7.2%.0%7.8%16.5%14.2%10.2%8.6%6.6%12.8%3.4%.0%
20253322310
7.2%13.8%4.3%6.1%8.3%.0%11.8%.0%.0%6.4%20.1%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
31.5%38.8%46.3%25.5%29.4%27.0%14.3%7.3%24.8%15.7%
710136894264
8.8%7.6%28.5%23.2%13.0%13.7%9.8%4.7%10.2%13.3%
2286353134
12.4%6.9%6.2%.0%25.7%2.4%12.8%.0%10.8%6.7%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
16.9%8.5%28.1%15.3%12.9%11.0%11.1%12.9%
9342839274021134
25.2%37.3%23.1%19.6%23.9%34.1%48.5%30.9%
1391827494912392321
57.9%54.2%48.8%65.1%63.1%54.9%40.4%56.2%
3192651516413019877584
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
26.8%11.9%12.7%12.5%14.6%13.7%13.9%15.4%9.5%2.9%10.5%
1013610535933251123
37.3%15.7%12.6%33.7%42.1%31.1%29.8%31.2%32.2%21.6%38.4%
1317628491337050371110
35.9%72.4%74.8%53.8%43.3%55.2%56.3%53.4%58.3%75.5%51.1%
138038453923613386664014
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
13.0%10.9%13.9%17.9%10.0%11.4%
904224311
34.1%21.2%25.6%32.6%27.7%20.7%
2379417820
52.9%67.9%60.4%49.4%62.3%67.9%
3672797111864
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
25.8%12.6%12.5%10.2%5.3%25.4%11.2%16.9%30.9%6.4%15.4%
4845102872319
28.4%29.8%28.1%43.7%39.3%18.3%22.7%36.2%19.9%53.6%31.4%
420011411361442718
45.8%57.6%59.4%46.1%55.4%56.3%66.1%46.9%49.2%40.0%53.2%
7386244319184164531
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 302829272524222820221040
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 2622252327262527292936
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 232627252723292127252824
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 21262925273428
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
18.9%13.2%14.0%6.9%7.6%11.9%11.6%18.4%8.8%19.4%12.9%
6442233524134
35.7%40.1%31.0%52.0%32.6%41.5%26.7%19.3%31.3%39.6%30.9%
11119148106569321
45.4%46.7%55.0%41.1%59.8%46.6%61.7%62.3%59.9%41.1%56.2%
1413161115111418129584
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
6.9%4.7%3.7%12.9%10.4%8.9%19.6%10.7%15.4%13.4%18.3%
21133253547
28.0%34.5%36.3%24.9%34.4%27.8%27.6%24.6%21.7%35.2%36.9%
7796977761013
65.0%60.8%59.9%62.3%55.2%63.4%52.8%64.7%62.8%51.4%44.8%
1713151415161318181516
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
13.1%14.4%17.9%6.6%6.6%24.5%15.2%17.2%9.9%4.0%14.6%15.8%
345226443144
25.4%29.1%38.1%22.0%34.2%19.5%29.5%43.0%24.3%20.0%21.9%33.5%
6710595896568
61.5%56.6%44.1%71.4%59.2%56.0%55.3%39.8%65.8%76.0%63.5%50.6%
14151218161316818191812
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
28.9%3.5%10.4%23.2%10.5%11.1%14.7%
6136344
21.0%31.3%44.9%20.8%42.2%28.7%21.3%
4813511106
50.1%65.2%44.8%56.0%47.4%60.1%64.0%
10171314132018
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
10.1%5.6%15.2%12.3%8.3%5.0%6.3%8.0%
552853117181283
30.4%42.8%38.6%22.0%26.3%41.5%55.4%36.2%
167209125554150106377
59.5%51.6%46.2%65.7%65.4%53.5%38.3%55.8%
3282521416513519373580
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
7.8%12.2%10.6%7.3%.0%8.1%10.5%9.3%2.8%10.3%.0%
3145610352515350
40.7%13.1%10.1%40.7%52.1%40.1%38.2%34.3%29.4%23.9%8.9%
1515534211172905533132
51.5%74.7%79.3%52.0%47.9%51.8%51.3%56.4%67.8%65.8%91.1%
1883404381022212191773524
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
6.8%15.6%7.3%26.5%6.2%11.1%
476126211
42.3%12.9%26.5%20.2%23.2%25.5%
2945424724
50.9%71.5%66.2%53.2%70.5%63.4%
35329106112060
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
28.4%7.7%7.7%2.8%5.6%5.5%16.1%8.2%20.8%.0%9.0%
4513322101205
27.2%37.5%36.4%47.4%25.5%24.1%22.0%30.7%57.5%45.3%29.7%
42511545981445617
44.5%54.8%55.9%49.8%68.9%70.5%61.9%61.1%21.7%54.7%61.3%
6367234723233882736
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829272524222820221040
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2622252327262527292936
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232627252723292127252824
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
2.9%17.3%16.5%9.9%.0%7.9%4.6%10.2%9.6%8.6%8.0%
155302132283
33.3%43.0%29.2%61.5%36.3%37.7%22.0%34.9%35.4%38.4%36.2%
10128179951078377
63.8%39.7%54.3%28.6%63.7%54.4%73.4%54.8%55.1%53.0%55.8%
1911168161316151111580
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
.0%8.8%.0%5.1%13.3%3.1%11.6%.0%.0%3.3%11.8%
02014130014
35.5%18.1%47.8%29.4%22.8%30.9%34.8%33.5%33.9%34.8%47.7%
941276899101017
64.5%73.1%52.2%65.5%63.9%66.0%53.6%66.5%66.1%61.9%40.5%
1716131517171318191814
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
12.1%7.3%9.9%15.1%12.6%20.5%11.9%8.4%3.3%.0%6.9%4.3%
323435321021
34.0%32.8%34.2%31.1%44.3%27.0%35.5%52.3%55.2%27.7%15.8%41.4%
88981261011157410
53.8%59.9%55.9%53.8%43.1%52.5%52.6%39.3%41.5%72.3%77.3%54.3%
12151513121215811182213
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
9.3%4.0%7.0%22.7%.0%9.0%10.2%
2126033
38.2%31.2%54.3%21.1%56.7%42.0%23.9%
8816515147
52.5%64.8%38.7%56.2%43.3%49.0%65.9%
11171114121618
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
21.7%14.2%35.7%19.1%22.6%15.1%15.3%18.2%
119701148475429189
38.2%45.4%25.9%41.1%43.2%41.7%42.6%41.6%
21122281048915181432
40.1%40.4%38.4%39.8%34.2%43.2%42.1%40.2%
221198121007115680418
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
26.9%24.2%11.0%17.4%33.3%17.2%19.6%19.9%16.8%15.6%9.7%
1027614777446321983
29.3%44.9%39.6%41.8%23.9%49.3%43.0%40.0%27.4%24.7%21.6%
11502035252111026431136
43.7%30.9%49.4%40.8%42.9%33.5%37.3%40.1%55.8%59.7%68.8%
16342534391438865633218
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
15.9%24.9%22.2%40.6%19.4%19.4%
11110369618
43.6%33.9%33.3%32.7%39.3%47.0%
302145371145
40.5%41.2%44.5%26.7%41.3%33.6%
281177161232
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
25.5%16.6%22.9%12.7%20.9%28.5%30.5%37.9%20.1%13.5%16.7%
4111912791952210
47.1%44.5%41.5%40.4%24.5%30.8%26.9%54.8%41.9%19.8%42.0%
729817388101774324
27.3%38.9%35.7%46.9%54.6%40.8%42.5%7.3%38.0%66.7%41.3%
4261144418132613924
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829272524222820221040
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2622252327262527292936
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232627252723292127252824
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
12.7%27.3%26.2%18.0%11.1%16.5%19.1%20.7%36.1%26.9%18.2%
4885344676189
36.0%39.9%20.3%54.7%29.3%67.9%37.3%18.2%44.5%52.3%41.6%
111161571685911432
51.2%32.8%53.5%27.3%59.6%15.5%43.6%61.1%19.5%20.7%40.2%
159157154101744418
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
25.6%16.7%13.7%4.5%20.8%6.5%21.8%27.1%16.8%19.8%22.2%
74316257568
59.5%31.8%34.3%53.8%29.0%50.3%19.3%28.2%22.7%32.7%40.6%
157912813587914
14.9%51.4%52.0%41.7%50.3%43.2%58.9%44.7%60.5%47.5%37.2%
41113913111512181413
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
20.4%18.4%21.5%19.1%13.3%21.7%13.8%8.2%7.2%13.0%25.7%11.8%
556545422373
59.8%46.5%42.8%35.5%51.8%52.7%61.6%24.7%51.7%49.4%40.2%51.8%
1412119141218514121112
19.8%35.2%35.7%45.4%35.0%25.7%24.6%67.1%41.1%37.6%34.1%36.4%
59101196714119109
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
22.8%15.3%9.2%24.6%7.0%26.0%16.7%
5436295
50.4%39.9%55.1%37.9%57.0%38.6%25.3%
111016915137
26.8%44.8%35.7%37.5%36.0%35.4%57.9%
612109101216
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
62.4%54.3%71.0%65.8%52.7%55.8%58.8%58.6%
34426521166109201112609
19.3%21.4%9.6%13.4%20.1%24.2%23.8%20.3%
106105334418745211
18.3%24.3%19.3%20.8%27.3%20.0%17.4%21.1%
101119652567233220
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
79.0%53.5%77.7%57.2%85.5%51.5%54.3%64.9%66.8%71.8%90.6%
28604048218221128105763824
10.3%16.4%11.1%21.8%4.9%21.3%24.7%21.3%15.5%15.7%.0%
418618319158341880
10.7%30.1%11.2%21.0%9.6%27.2%21.1%13.8%17.7%12.5%9.4%
4336177211750222073
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
59.5%47.7%60.8%42.3%57.1%57.0%
413199791754
20.6%25.8%13.4%53.8%20.0%19.9%
143102212619
19.9%26.5%25.8%3.9%22.9%23.1%
13811411722
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
61.8%52.7%65.5%61.3%67.5%63.3%73.5%86.2%79.9%80.0%78.8%
935327582321461171146
26.1%21.1%22.0%17.3%18.8%25.1%17.0%6.5%20.1%20.0%18.1%
4141916681112311
12.1%26.2%12.6%21.4%13.7%11.7%9.5%7.3%.0%.0%3.1%
21765205461002
Q7. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829272524222820221040
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2622252327262527292936
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232627252723292127252824
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
57.5%63.5%59.4%62.4%68.5%60.0%65.8%69.1%74.1%40.4%58.6%
1718171717141519159609
23.5%19.7%21.8%30.8%11.3%23.5%4.0%16.9%12.8%29.9%20.3%
7568361536211
18.9%16.8%18.8%6.8%20.2%16.5%30.3%14.0%13.2%29.7%21.1%
6552547436220
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
46.2%73.9%68.0%75.5%70.1%77.5%64.6%65.9%69.6%50.9%48.7%
1216171719201618201517
27.8%17.5%11.1%12.1%13.9%3.4%12.2%23.7%10.2%17.0%26.9%
743341363510
26.0%8.7%20.9%12.4%16.0%19.1%23.2%10.5%20.2%32.1%24.4%
72534563699
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
39.7%57.3%55.9%51.9%50.8%51.4%46.4%42.8%61.9%61.7%49.6%58.6%
9151513141213917151414
24.6%29.0%23.4%24.8%13.8%33.3%26.7%25.0%20.8%16.5%17.2%7.3%
676648856452
35.7%13.7%20.7%23.4%35.4%15.3%26.9%32.2%17.3%21.8%33.2%34.1%
8466104875598
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
64.7%61.0%45.2%53.6%43.4%59.5%63.6%
14161313122018
27.1%23.6%34.8%25.1%39.2%15.6%10.2%
661061053
8.2%15.4%20.0%21.3%17.4%25.0%26.2%
2465587
Q7. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
19.7%9.1%22.7%15.9%15.1%14.1%12.5%14.7%
10844740315124153
54.4%66.7%55.1%62.0%61.9%59.6%58.0%60.2%
30032617156128215111626
25.9%24.2%22.2%22.1%23.0%26.3%29.5%25.1%
143118756479556261
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
21.6%18.4%12.1%14.1%9.7%11.5%15.9%16.1%19.9%18.7%20.2%
8206118249382623105
65.0%66.8%57.1%59.3%66.9%69.0%62.6%49.9%50.1%38.1%42.0%
2374294991429614881572011
13.4%14.8%30.8%26.6%23.4%19.5%21.5%34.0%29.9%43.2%37.8%
516162245845155342310
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
14.8%8.8%16.0%12.1%18.7%13.6%
1024263513
59.0%58.0%64.5%61.9%51.7%64.6%
41023104131561
26.2%33.1%19.4%26.0%29.6%21.8%
18213316921
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
14.1%12.1%14.7%5.4%26.3%44.9%13.6%29.3%43.0%13.5%30.3%
28165915844218
54.1%64.4%62.8%62.6%27.5%33.3%54.7%63.5%47.4%67.3%47.8%
843125599113484928
31.7%23.6%22.5%32.0%46.2%21.8%31.8%7.3%9.6%19.2%21.9%
51589301572011313
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829272524222820221040
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2622252327262527292936
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232627252723292127252824
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
21.7%16.8%12.8%23.1%11.1%.0%14.0%22.6%17.6%5.7%14.7%
7546303631153
42.5%67.2%51.4%53.2%72.0%87.7%68.8%38.2%49.3%67.0%60.2%
13191514182115111014626
35.9%16.0%35.8%23.7%16.9%12.3%17.3%39.1%33.0%27.4%25.1%
1141064341176261
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
7.1%16.1%6.2%8.9%29.9%8.9%22.5%27.0%31.9%15.3%7.9%
23228267943
72.8%36.5%81.2%71.6%24.3%64.8%58.1%58.9%49.8%55.3%50.3%
19820167171516151618
20.1%47.5%12.6%19.5%45.7%26.3%19.4%14.1%18.3%29.4%41.8%
51034127545815
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
.0%11.3%21.0%7.4%14.2%16.7%23.6%17.1%14.7%12.4%19.9%3.9%
036244744361
100.0%57.3%63.8%62.5%61.2%60.5%49.3%48.7%57.6%67.1%62.1%81.0%
231517161714141015171819
.0%31.4%15.2%30.1%24.6%22.9%27.1%34.1%27.7%20.5%18.0%15.2%
084875877554
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
5.0%28.8%10.2%13.4%3.3%14.4%12.4%
1733153
81.9%55.6%57.4%71.3%64.5%70.6%37.7%
17141718172410
13.2%15.6%32.5%15.3%32.2%15.0%49.8%
34949514
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
551489302522063611911040
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3611151842214292361611135327
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
69440160212995
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1467041943333621291358
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
59.2%49.2%66.8%59.8%49.2%53.5%53.0%54.5%
32624020151101193101566
18.4%17.3%20.1%14.8%16.9%20.7%17.5%17.9%
10285637357533186
22.4%33.5%13.1%25.3%33.9%25.9%29.4%27.6%
123164464709356287
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
72.5%44.1%56.5%54.9%66.4%47.7%48.1%60.4%64.0%81.3%80.5%
2649294621420411397734322
13.7%16.9%17.6%18.3%19.6%21.9%17.5%13.9%18.8%6.0%.0%
519915449441222130
13.8%39.0%25.9%26.8%14.0%30.4%34.4%25.6%17.2%12.7%19.5%
54313226313081412075
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
55.3%42.0%58.8%50.8%49.4%48.8%
3831794111446
19.7%9.0%13.3%12.1%16.7%18.4%
1364213517
25.1%49.0%27.9%37.1%33.8%32.7%
174204581031
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
50.2%47.7%68.3%52.6%72.4%71.9%70.9%84.1%79.9%93.4%70.0%
731928502424441071241
37.7%19.1%13.4%16.4%10.4%16.1%15.6%15.9%20.1%.0%16.8%
5128515351022010
12.1%33.2%18.3%31.0%17.2%12.0%13.4%.0%.0%6.6%13.2%
22227296480018
Q9. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829272524222820221040
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2622252327262527292936
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232627252723292127252824
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21262925273428
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
50.6%67.0%58.0%50.6%66.1%31.1%47.9%72.2%60.5%40.2%54.5%
151917141671120129566
14.9%2.9%19.7%27.4%19.2%20.0%16.4%6.9%8.6%22.0%17.9%
4167554225186
34.6%30.1%22.3%22.1%14.7%48.9%35.7%20.9%30.9%37.8%27.6%
108664128668287
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
42.3%73.9%30.7%42.7%67.6%55.8%60.4%76.0%74.8%41.3%60.2%
111681018141521221221
17.5%12.3%27.4%24.0%3.3%11.2%8.5%6.6%9.7%22.4%23.2%
43751322368
40.3%13.8%41.9%33.3%29.1%33.0%31.1%17.4%15.5%36.3%16.6%
10310888855106
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
48.1%40.6%65.3%45.8%55.4%58.9%62.6%56.6%55.0%61.6%39.1%56.0%
111017111514181215151113
21.0%25.5%10.5%13.6%13.8%21.0%14.7%17.2%20.9%15.9%23.7%23.6%
573345446476
30.9%33.9%24.2%40.6%30.8%20.1%22.7%26.2%24.2%22.5%37.2%20.4%
79610856666115
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
54.2%37.2%51.6%40.2%50.6%58.5%60.4%
11101510132017
17.6%23.3%35.3%37.6%25.9%18.8%12.5%
46109763
28.2%39.6%13.1%22.2%23.5%22.7%27.1%
61046688
Q9. Does this make you feel?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations
UNWEIGHTED TABULATIONS
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
1.4%1.4%.0%2.6%2.3%.8%.5%1.4%
870653115
65.2%66.5%64.5%59.2%69.6%68.4%64.5%65.8%
36332720135151255129690
3.6%4.3%6.5%5.7%2.3%2.9%5.0%3.9%
20212135111041
8.1%10.0%6.5%11.8%6.0%9.4%8.5%9.0%
454922713351794
3.8%2.4%.0%2.2%2.8%3.5%4.5%3.1%
211205613933
3.4%2.8%3.2%3.1%5.1%1.3%4.5%3.1%
191417115933
7.7%3.9%9.7%9.2%2.8%5.9%5.0%5.9%
43193216221062
.7%1.0%3.2%.4%1.4%.5%1.0%.9%
45113229
1.1%.6%.0%.0%.0%1.3%2.0%.9%
63000549
.4%1.6%.0%.4%2.3%.5%1.0%1.0%
280152210
4.7%5.5%6.5%5.3%5.5%5.4%3.5%5.1%
26272121220753
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%2.8%.4%.0%1.0%.0%.0%
01310100
81.0%72.9%66.1%58.1%52.9%46.9%10.0%
173411689355151
9.5%3.2%5.1%4.4%3.8%.0%.0%
215137400
9.5%9.4%9.1%6.9%8.7%6.3%30.0%
2442311923
.0%1.9%2.4%6.3%5.8%3.1%10.0%
09610611
.0%1.9%3.1%5.0%5.8%6.3%.0%
0988620
.0%4.1%4.3%8.1%13.5%15.6%.0%
01911131450
.0%.0%1.6%1.3%1.0%.0%20.0%
0042102
.0%.0%2.0%1.3%1.0%3.1%.0%
0052110
.0%.6%.8%1.3%.0%3.1%20.0%
0322012
.0%3.2%5.1%7.5%6.7%15.6%10.0%
0151312751
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
214682541601043210
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
3.0%3.0%.0%1.2%
13011
57.6%69.7%44.1%66.5%
196915587
6.1%4.0%8.8%3.6%
24332
12.1%6.1%8.8%9.2%
46381
.0%1.0%5.9%3.4%
01230
3.0%2.0%11.8%2.9%
12426
9.1%8.1%8.8%5.4%
38348
.0%.0%2.9%.9%
0018
.0%.0%.0%1.0%
0009
3.0%.0%.0%1.0%
1009
6.1%6.1%8.8%4.8%
26342
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
1.4%2.4%1.3%.0%.0%1.9%
1012002
62.7%76.2%72.5%70.0%73.3%69.5%
43832111142273
4.0%2.4%5.9%.0%.0%2.9%
2819003
10.9%2.4%2.6%15.0%10.0%6.7%
7614337
3.7%.0%2.6%.0%3.3%1.9%
2604012
3.1%2.4%2.6%5.0%3.3%3.8%
2214114
5.7%7.1%7.2%.0%3.3%6.7%
40311017
1.0%.0%.0%5.0%.0%1.0%
700101
1.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.9%
700002
1.0%2.4%.7%.0%3.3%.0%
711010
5.4%4.8%4.6%5.0%3.3%3.8%
3827114
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
150000000000
.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0690000000000
.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
004100000000
.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000940000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000033000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000003300000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000620000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000009000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%.0%
00000000900
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%.0%
000000000100
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%100.0%
000000000053
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents CaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%.0%1.4%
0000001015
55.2%69.0%69.6%79.2%52.6%66.7%61.9%54.5%65.8%
1620161910181312690
3.4%6.9%4.3%4.2%15.8%.0%.0%4.5%3.9%
1211300141
17.2%10.3%8.7%8.3%10.5%11.1%4.8%18.2%9.0%
5322231494
.0%6.9%.0%.0%5.3%7.4%14.3%.0%3.1%
0200123033
3.4%3.4%4.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%9.1%3.1%
1110000233
6.9%.0%4.3%8.3%10.5%.0%9.5%9.1%5.9%
2012202262
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.5%.9%
000000019
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.7%.0%.0%.9%
000001009
6.9%.0%.0%.0%5.3%.0%.0%.0%1.0%
2000100010
6.9%3.4%8.7%.0%.0%11.1%4.8%.0%5.1%
2120031053
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
29292324192721221049
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Clwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff NorthCardiff Central
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000
56.0%68.0%55.6%72.4%71.4%70.3%66.7%67.9%
1417152120262019
.0%4.0%7.4%3.4%3.6%.0%.0%3.6%
01211001
24.0%8.0%3.7%3.4%3.6%8.1%13.3%10.7%
62111343
4.0%12.0%11.1%3.4%7.1%.0%.0%7.1%
13312002
.0%.0%11.1%.0%3.6%2.7%3.3%3.6%
00301111
4.0%4.0%7.4%3.4%7.1%5.4%10.0%3.6%
11212231
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000
4.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
10000000
.0%.0%3.7%.0%.0%2.7%3.3%.0%
00100110
8.0%4.0%.0%13.8%3.6%10.8%3.3%3.6%
21041411
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2525272928373028
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
MontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd West
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%3.4%.0%3.4%.0%3.6%.0%.0%.0%7.4%
0101010002
65.2%69.0%80.0%62.1%66.7%60.7%65.0%68.0%65.2%63.0%
15202018161713171517
4.3%.0%8.0%6.9%8.3%10.7%10.0%.0%4.3%.0%
1022232010
4.3%3.4%4.0%10.3%12.5%17.9%15.0%12.0%13.0%7.4%
1113353332
.0%3.4%.0%.0%.0%3.6%.0%4.0%.0%.0%
0100010100
8.7%.0%.0%10.3%.0%.0%.0%12.0%13.0%11.1%
2003000333
4.3%6.9%8.0%6.9%4.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.7%
1222100001
4.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%.0%
1000001000
8.7%3.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.0%.0%.0%
2100000100
.0%3.4%.0%.0%.0%3.6%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100010000
.0%6.9%.0%.0%8.3%.0%5.0%.0%4.3%7.4%
0200201012
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
23292529242820252327
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
TorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeath
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
3.6%3.2%.0%4.2%.0%3.6%3.8%.0%4.2%3.6%
1101011011
60.7%64.5%74.1%66.7%80.0%67.9%65.4%78.6%54.2%39.3%
17202016201917221311
3.6%3.2%3.7%8.3%.0%7.1%.0%.0%8.3%3.6%
1112020021
7.1%6.5%11.1%8.3%4.0%3.6%.0%3.6%8.3%10.7%
2232110123
.0%3.2%7.4%8.3%.0%.0%3.8%3.6%.0%.0%
0122001100
.0%3.2%3.7%.0%.0%10.7%.0%.0%.0%3.6%
0110030001
3.6%9.7%.0%4.2%8.0%7.1%15.4%7.1%12.5%10.7%
1301224233
3.6%.0%.0%.0%4.0%.0%3.8%.0%4.2%7.1%
1000101012
.0%3.2%.0%.0%4.0%.0%.0%.0%4.2%.0%
0100100010
.0%3.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.6%.0%.0%
0100000100
17.9%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%7.7%3.6%4.2%21.4%
5000002116
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
28312724252826282428
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of Clwyd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
1 - Not going to vote
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 - Certain to vote
Don't know
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
.0%4.0%.0%3.8%
0101
63.6%64.0%74.2%69.2%
14162318
4.5%4.0%3.2%.0%
1110
9.1%12.0%9.7%3.8%
2331
4.5%8.0%.0%.0%
1200
.0%.0%3.2%.0%
0010
13.6%4.0%3.2%11.5%
3113
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000
4.5%4.0%6.5%11.5%
1123
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126
Q1. At the forthcoming election, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote'?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
10000101
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.3%.0%.1%
01000101
.2%.0%.0%.5%.0%.0%.0%.1%
10010001
38.4%26.5%32.1%29.3%29.2%35.2%36.4%32.8%
1961179615612067313
.0%.7%.0%.5%1.0%.0%.0%.3%
03012003
.4%1.1%3.6%.5%.5%.6%1.1%.7%
25111227
.8%1.1%.0%.5%.5%.9%2.2%.9%
45011349
8.4%11.3%3.6%9.1%9.9%12.6%6.0%9.8%
435011919431193
4.3%4.8%3.6%5.3%4.2%4.1%4.9%4.5%
2221111814943
11.5%12.4%10.7%5.8%8.9%14.1%18.5%12.0%
5955312174834114
30.5%35.3%28.6%41.8%40.6%26.4%26.6%32.7%
156156887789049312
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
51144228208192341184953
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
0100000
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
38.1%33.0%31.0%31.7%39.4%28.0%20.0%
814471453771
.0%.0%.4%1.4%.0%.0%.0%
0012000
.0%.9%.4%.7%1.1%.0%.0%
0411100
.0%.0%.9%.7%4.3%8.0%.0%
0021420
4.8%7.1%11.8%12.0%11.7%20.0%20.0%
13127171151
.0%4.8%3.5%5.6%4.3%4.0%20.0%
02188411
14.3%13.0%14.0%10.6%4.3%4.0%40.0%
3573215412
23.8%35.7%31.9%31.7%27.7%28.0%.0%
515673452670
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2143722914294255
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
0001
.0%.0%.0%.1%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.1%
0001
27.6%18.9%30.0%34.7%
8179279
.0%2.2%.0%.1%
0201
.0%.0%.0%.9%
0007
.0%.0%.0%1.1%
0009
3.4%11.1%6.7%10.0%
110280
3.4%3.3%10.0%4.5%
13336
17.2%3.3%13.3%12.7%
534102
31.0%58.9%30.0%30.0%
9539241
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
299030804
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
001000
.0%.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%
001000
.0%.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%
001000
35.1%28.9%26.6%16.7%28.6%33.3%
22111383832
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
.8%2.6%.0%5.6%.0%.0%
510100
.5%5.3%1.4%5.6%3.6%.0%
322110
5.4%10.5%34.3%5.6%.0%5.2%
34449105
4.8%5.3%4.2%11.1%.0%3.1%
3026203
13.3%10.5%4.9%11.1%17.9%12.5%
84472512
33.8%28.9%21.0%38.9%35.7%42.7%
213113071041
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
63038143182896
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Other
100000
.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.0%.0%1.1%.0%.0%.0%
001000
30.9%41.5%33.0%33.3%39.4%45.2%
2131731111328
.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.6%
200001
.6%.0%2.1%3.0%.0%.0%
402100
1.0%.0%1.1%3.0%.0%.0%
701100
10.1%12.2%7.4%9.1%6.1%9.7%
7057326
4.2%9.8%6.4%.0%6.1%3.2%
2946022
10.9%9.8%19.1%21.2%6.1%12.9%
75418728
35.5%22.0%23.4%24.2%39.4%24.2%
24592281315
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
6904194333362
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.3%.0%.1%
01000101
5.3%6.3%17.9%6.7%5.2%5.3%4.3%5.8%
27285141018855
.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%.0%.1%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%1.1%.0%.0%
0000100
19.0%4.8%6.1%5.6%6.4%8.0%.0%
421148620
.0%.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%3.3%.0%
0010
17.2%2.2%6.7%5.7%
52246
.0%.0%.0%.1%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%2.6%.0%.0%.0%.0%
010000
5.9%5.3%5.6%5.6%14.3%3.1%
3728143
.0%.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%1.1%.0%.0%.0%
001000
6.2%4.9%5.3%6.1%3.0%3.2%
4325212
.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
Base: Those likely to vote Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
6106201412114
28.6%22.2%36.0%25.0%19.0%50.0%16.7%21.7%26.3%57.1%32.7%
869741235512312
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
28272528212418231921953
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
23217521245
50.0%5.6%58.3%36.4%8.7%22.7%12.5%23.1%8.0%33.3%34.4%
13114825362911
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2618242223222426252732
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
064211437210
43.5%34.8%40.7%40.9%42.3%40.0%31.6%5.0%37.5%48.0%46.4%31.8%
10811911861912137
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
232327222620192024252822
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote
Labour
Conservative
4483322
19.0%39.1%27.6%59.1%33.3%39.3%37.0%
4981371110
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
21232922212827
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%.1%
00000000011
7.1%7.4%4.0%17.9%.0%4.2%5.6%13.0%5.3%9.5%5.8%
221501131255
.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00001000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.6%.0%.0%.0%.1%
00000010001
32.1%40.7%44.0%35.7%42.9%33.3%33.3%34.8%42.1%14.3%32.8%
9111110986883313
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
00000100003
.0%.0%4.0%.0%.0%4.2%5.6%4.3%5.3%.0%.7%
00100111107
.0%3.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.9%
01000000009
10.7%3.7%12.0%.0%9.5%4.2%22.2%4.3%5.3%.0%9.8%
313021411093
.0%18.5%.0%.0%14.3%.0%5.6%4.3%10.5%4.8%4.5%
050030112143
21.4%3.7%.0%21.4%9.5%.0%5.6%17.4%5.3%9.5%12.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
3.8%.0%4.2%4.5%.0%4.5%4.2%.0%8.0%7.4%9.4%
10110110223
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.1%
00000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
26.9%27.8%20.8%50.0%30.4%27.3%25.0%50.0%36.0%25.9%25.0%
7551176613978
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.5%4.2%.0%.0%3.7%6.3%
00000110012
11.5%44.4%8.3%.0%26.1%13.6%20.8%19.2%40.0%14.8%3.1%
382063551041
.0%5.6%.0%4.5%4.3%4.5%25.0%3.8%.0%.0%3.1%
01011161001
7.7%16.7%8.3%4.5%30.4%22.7%8.3%3.8%8.0%14.8%15.6%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%3.7%.0%11.5%10.0%5.3%.0%.0%8.0%17.9%4.5%
001032100251
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000000000
39.1%30.4%29.6%31.8%34.6%25.0%31.6%60.0%20.8%28.0%25.0%40.9%
9787956125779
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000000100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000001010000
.0%.0%.0%4.5%3.8%.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
000110010000
13.0%4.3%3.7%13.6%.0%.0%5.3%5.0%4.2%4.0%7.1%18.2%
311300111124
4.3%4.3%7.4%.0%3.8%15.0%.0%5.0%8.3%4.0%.0%4.5%
112013012101
.0%26.1%14.8%9.1%3.8%5.0%21.1%15.0%29.2%8.0%3.6%.0%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Don’t know
Labour or Conservative
Plaid or Labour
Plaid or lib dem
Refused
Socialist Labour Party
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
4.8%.0%10.3%.0%9.5%7.1%7.4%
1030222
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
38.1%34.8%31.0%18.2%38.1%32.1%33.3%
8894899
.0%4.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000
19.0%.0%.0%9.1%4.8%7.1%11.1%
4002123
.0%4.3%3.4%.0%.0%7.1%3.7%
0110021
19.0%17.4%27.6%13.6%14.3%7.1%7.4%
Q2a. At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and 'don't know' at Q2a
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
1.5%3.4%.0%3.3%.0%1.7%4.5%2.2%
34020237
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.5%.3%
10000011
.5%.0%.0%.0%1.8%.0%.0%.3%
10001001
.0%.9%.0%.0%1.8%.0%.0%.3%
01001001
43.4%41.9%55.6%49.2%41.1%40.8%40.3%42.8%
8549530234927134
.0%2.6%.0%1.6%1.8%.0%1.5%1.0%
03011013
11.2%8.5%11.1%11.5%10.7%9.2%10.4%10.2%
221017611732
4.1%4.3%.0%1.6%5.4%6.7%1.5%4.2%
850138113
15.3%12.0%11.1%6.6%10.7%18.3%16.4%14.1%
3014146221144
23.5%26.5%22.2%26.2%26.8%23.3%23.9%24.6%
463121615281677
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1961179615612067313
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%2.1%2.8%4.4%.0%.0%.0%
0322000
.0%.0%1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010000
.0%.0%1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010000
.0%.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000
62.5%44.4%40.8%37.8%48.6%14.3%.0%
56429171810
.0%1.4%1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0210000
12.5%10.4%9.9%11.1%10.8%.0%.0%
11575400
.0%3.5%4.2%4.4%5.4%14.3%.0%
0532210
25.0%14.6%15.5%6.7%10.8%28.6%100.0%
221113421
.0%22.9%22.5%35.6%24.3%42.9%.0%
0331616930
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
814471453771
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%.0%2.5%
0007
.0%.0%.0%.4%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.4%
0001
.0%.0%.0%.4%
0001
50.0%52.9%55.6%41.6%
495116
.0%.0%.0%1.1%
0003
12.5%23.5%11.1%9.3%
14126
.0%.0%11.1%4.3%
00112
25.0%.0%11.1%14.7%
20141
12.5%23.5%11.1%25.4%
14171
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
8179279
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
3.2%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
700000
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%3.1%
000001
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
43.9%36.4%44.7%33.3%37.5%37.5%
974171312
1.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
7.7%27.3%21.1%33.3%12.5%6.3%
1738112
4.5%.0%5.3%.0%12.5%.0%
1002010
15.4%9.1%10.5%.0%12.5%12.5%
3414014
23.1%27.3%18.4%33.3%25.0%40.6%
51371213
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22111383832
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
2.3%.0%3.2%.0%.0%3.6%
501001
.0%.0%3.2%.0%.0%.0%
001000
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
100000
39.4%29.4%38.7%63.6%61.5%64.3%
845127818
.9%.0%3.2%.0%.0%.0%
201000
11.3%11.8%12.9%.0%7.7%3.6%
2424011
4.2%5.9%6.5%9.1%.0%.0%
912100
14.6%17.6%22.6%18.2%.0%3.6%
3137201
26.3%35.3%9.7%9.1%30.8%25.0%
5663147
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2131731111328
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and 'don't know' at Q2a
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
9.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.2%
1000000007
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.3%
0000000001
45.5%27.3%70.0%55.6%62.5%66.7%62.5%25.0%33.3%42.8%
537554521134
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%12.5%.0%.0%1.0%
0000001003
9.1%36.4%10.0%11.1%.0%.0%12.5%12.5%.0%10.2%
14110011032
18.2%.0%.0%22.2%.0%.0%.0%12.5%.0%4.2%
20020001013
9.1%9.1%.0%.0%37.5%.0%12.5%25.0%33.3%14.1%
11003012144
9.1%27.3%20.0%11.1%.0%33.3%.0%25.0%33.3%24.6%
13210202177
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
111110986883313
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%11.1%
0000001001
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
20.0%27.3%28.6%66.7%16.7%61.5%22.2%42.9%75.0%55.6%
1324182365
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%
0000000001
.0%.0%14.3%.0%16.7%.0%55.6%28.6%.0%.0%
0010105200
.0%.0%14.3%.0%16.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010100000
60.0%18.2%14.3%16.7%16.7%15.4%.0%.0%12.5%11.1%
3211120011
20.0%54.5%28.6%16.7%33.3%23.1%11.1%28.6%12.5%11.1%
1621231211
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
511766139789
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%11.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%
01000000100
.0%.0%20.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00100000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%20.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00100000000
42.9%22.2%60.0%33.3%58.3%20.0%28.6%42.9%11.1%28.6%.0%
32327123120
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00000000000
.0%.0%.0%16.7%8.3%.0%.0%28.6%11.1%.0%40.0%
00011002102
.0%.0%.0%.0%8.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%14.3%.0%
00001000010
.0%33.3%.0%16.7%25.0%20.0%28.6%.0%.0%28.6%40.0%
03013120022
57.1%33.3%.0%33.3%.0%60.0%42.9%28.6%66.7%28.6%20.0%
43020332621
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
795612577975
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and 'don't know' at Q2a
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
UKIP
Don’t know
None
None of them
Socialist Labour
Undecided
Other
.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010010000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%
0000000100
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
37.5%12.5%66.7%50.0%75.0%55.6%44.4%11.1%42.9%62.5%
3162654135
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000010000
12.5%12.5%.0%25.0%.0%.0%33.3%11.1%.0%.0%
1101003100
.0%25.0%.0%.0%.0%11.1%.0%.0%14.3%.0%
0200010010
25.0%25.0%11.1%.0%12.5%.0%11.1%.0%14.3%12.5%
2210101011
25.0%25.0%11.1%25.0%12.5%11.1%11.1%66.7%28.6%25.0%
2211111622
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
8894899978
Q2b. Which party are you most inclined to support?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.5%1.6%.0%1.8%.0%1.8%2.7%1.6%
660305412
.0%.8%.0%.6%1.3%.0%.0%.4%
03012003
.5%2.2%5.6%1.2%1.3%.7%2.0%1.3%
281222310
1.0%1.4%.0%.6%.6%1.1%2.7%1.2%
45011349
16.3%16.5%11.1%15.9%15.9%19.7%12.1%16.4%
6560226255418125
7.5%7.1%5.6%7.3%7.0%8.0%6.7%7.3%
302611211221056
22.4%19.0%22.2%9.8%14.6%25.5%30.2%20.7%
8969416237045158
50.8%51.4%55.6%62.8%59.2%43.1%43.6%51.0%
202187101039311865389
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
39836418164157274149762
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%1.7%1.6%1.7%1.4%.0%.0%
0632100
.0%.0%.5%1.7%.0%.0%.0%
0012000
.0%1.7%1.1%.9%1.4%.0%.0%
0621100
.0%.0%1.1%.9%5.7%9.1%.0%
0021420
16.7%13.1%18.4%18.8%21.4%22.7%20.0%
24634221551
.0%7.4%5.9%8.5%8.6%9.1%20.0%
0261110621
41.7%22.2%23.2%15.4%11.4%13.6%60.0%
5784318833
41.7%53.8%48.1%52.1%50.0%45.5%.0%
5189896135100
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1235118511770225
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%4.3%1.7%
00111
.0%2.5%.0%.2%
0201
.0%.0%.0%1.6%
00010
.0%.0%.0%1.4%
0009
10.0%17.7%13.0%16.6%
2143106
5.0%3.8%17.4%7.5%
13448
35.0%3.8%21.7%22.3%
735143
50.0%72.2%43.5%48.8%
105710312
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
207923640
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.6%3.1%2.5%.0%.0%.0%
813000
.6%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
300000
1.6%3.1%.0%6.3%.0%.0%
810100
.6%6.3%1.7%6.3%4.8%.0%
322110
10.3%21.9%48.3%12.5%4.8%8.8%
51757217
8.1%6.3%6.8%12.5%4.8%3.8%
4028213
23.8%15.6%9.3%12.5%28.6%20.0%
1185112616
53.3%43.8%31.4%50.0%57.1%67.5%
264143781254
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
49532118162180
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
10 - Certain to vote98765
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
1.2%.0%5.2%.0%.0%2.4%
704001
.4%.0%.0%.0%.0%2.4%
200001
1.1%.0%3.9%4.2%.0%.0%
603100
1.2%.0%1.3%4.2%.0%.0%
701100
16.8%20.6%14.3%12.5%12.5%16.7%
94711337
6.8%14.7%10.4%4.2%8.3%4.8%
3858122
18.9%20.6%32.5%37.5%8.3%21.4%
106725929
53.7%44.1%32.5%37.5%70.8%52.4%
301152591722
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
5613477242442
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
202116161813151618762
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22182117221821222321
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
1921141613232120202318
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: Those likely to vote and who specified a party 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
17222020132121212021
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: Those likely to vote
and who specified a
party
Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and
DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
5.0%.0%.0%6.3%.0%7.7%.0%.0%5.6%1.6%
10010100112
.0%.0%.0%.0%5.6%.0%.0%.0%.0%.4%
0000100003
.0%4.8%.0%.0%5.6%7.7%13.3%6.3%.0%1.3%
01001121010
5.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%1.2%
1000000009
10.0%33.3%6.3%18.8%5.6%30.8%13.3%12.5%.0%16.4%
271314220125
35.0%.0%.0%31.3%.0%7.7%6.7%18.8%5.6%7.3%
70050113156
10.0%4.8%37.5%12.5%16.7%7.7%33.3%18.8%16.7%20.7%
216231533158
35.0%57.1%56.3%31.3%66.7%38.5%33.3%43.8%72.2%51.0%
712951255713389
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%.0%4.3%4.8%
0000001011
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%
0000000001
.0%.0%.0%5.9%4.5%.0%.0%4.5%8.7%.0%
0001100120
9.1%.0%33.3%17.6%27.3%27.8%71.4%27.3%4.3%14.3%
20736515613
.0%5.6%9.5%5.9%31.8%5.6%.0%.0%4.3%.0%
0121710010
22.7%16.7%38.1%35.3%13.6%16.7%9.5%18.2%26.1%33.3%
5386332467
68.2%77.8%19.0%35.3%22.7%50.0%14.3%50.0%52.2%42.9%
15144659311129
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%4.8%7.1%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%
01100000100
.0%.0%.0%6.3%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00010000000
.0%.0%7.1%.0%7.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
00101000000
5.3%4.8%.0%.0%7.7%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
11001000000
15.8%.0%.0%12.5%15.4%4.3%4.8%20.0%25.0%13.0%55.6%
300221145310
.0%4.8%21.4%.0%15.4%8.7%4.8%.0%5.0%4.3%5.6%
01302210111
10.5%19.0%7.1%31.3%46.2%34.8%19.0%5.0%.0%17.4%27.8%
24156841045
68.4%66.7%57.1%50.0%7.7%52.2%71.4%75.0%65.0%65.2%11.1%
131488112151513152
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Plaid Cymru
Green
UKIP
BNP
Other
.0%.0%5.0%.0%.0%4.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0010010000
.0%4.5%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0100000000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%4.8%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000010000
.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%.0%
0000000000
29.4%4.5%.0%15.0%7.7%9.5%28.6%19.0%5.0%4.8%
5103126411
.0%13.6%5.0%.0%.0%14.3%4.8%4.8%10.0%9.5%
0310031122
35.3%27.3%45.0%15.0%30.8%9.5%14.3%.0%35.0%23.8%
6693423075
35.3%50.0%45.0%70.0%61.5%57.1%52.4%76.2%50.0%61.9%
61191481211161013
Q2c. Aggregated voting intention
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
8682259384326168
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
27140271882
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
214682541601043210
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
4226136
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
1227152517
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
21185103984027
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
31.2%22.0%61.3%25.4%27.6%23.9%28.0%26.9%
1741081958608956282
11.8%13.0%.0%8.8%9.2%16.1%15.0%12.4%
6664020206030130
7.4%7.3%3.2%5.3%6.9%8.8%8.0%7.3%
413611215331677
9.5%7.3%3.2%7.0%8.8%9.7%8.5%8.5%
533611619361789
24.6%33.7%25.8%27.6%30.0%30.0%27.5%28.9%
1371668636511255303
15.4%16.7%6.5%25.9%17.5%11.5%13.0%16.0%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years
Age
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
52.4%28.0%28.0%24.4%18.3%28.1%20.0%
1113171391992
.0%10.9%12.6%15.0%17.3%6.3%30.0%
05132241823
9.5%9.8%4.7%2.5%8.7%6.3%20.0%
246124922
9.5%7.9%7.1%11.9%10.6%6.3%.0%
23718191120
19.0%28.2%31.9%29.4%27.9%28.1%10.0%
413281472991
9.5%15.2%15.7%16.9%17.3%25.0%20.0%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
Tenure
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
48.5%26.3%26.5%26.2%
16269231
3.0%5.1%14.7%13.5%
155119
6.1%4.0%8.8%7.7%
24368
3.0%6.1%11.8%8.8%
16478
27.3%36.4%20.6%28.4%
9367251
12.1%22.2%17.6%15.4%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
28.8%31.0%20.3%15.0%23.3%25.7%
20113313727
12.3%14.3%15.0%10.0%16.7%7.6%
86623258
8.0%7.1%4.6%10.0%3.3%7.6%
5637218
9.4%.0%6.5%20.0%13.3%4.8%
66010445
24.0%31.0%43.8%35.0%26.7%38.1%
16813677840
17.5%16.7%9.8%10.0%16.7%16.2%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
40.0%23.2%26.8%25.5%24.2%21.2%38.7%11.1%77.8%40.0%56.6%
61601124872417430
6.7%10.9%12.2%23.4%15.2%9.1%19.4%.0%.0%10.0%11.3%
17552253120016
20.0%6.5%12.2%7.4%12.1%9.1%1.6%33.3%11.1%20.0%5.7%
345574313123
.0%8.8%7.3%11.7%9.1%12.1%8.1%.0%.0%10.0%1.9%
0613113450011
20.0%33.5%29.3%21.3%30.3%21.2%19.4%11.1%11.1%.0%11.3%
32311220107121106
13.3%17.1%12.2%10.6%9.1%27.3%12.9%44.4%.0%20.0%13.2%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
Base: All respondents Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
32422251177
25.0%6.9%6.9%17.4%4.2%5.3%.0%14.3%9.1%8.5%
72241103289
14.3%27.6%10.3%26.1%37.5%26.3%37.0%14.3%27.3%28.9%
4836951036303
14.3%10.3%17.2%17.4%16.7%21.1%.0%9.5%27.3%16.0%
435444026168
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2829292324192721221049
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
2120121113
8.0%4.3%7.4%8.0%16.0%.0%.0%7.1%8.1%23.3%
2122400237
40.0%34.8%25.9%32.0%36.0%29.6%44.8%42.9%16.2%16.7%
1087898131265
16.0%26.1%3.7%16.0%4.0%18.5%6.9%10.7%10.8%3.3%
4614152341
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
25232725252729283730
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
24122030023
3.8%7.1%12.5%10.7%17.4%10.3%4.0%3.4%8.3%10.7%10.0%
12334311232
46.2%35.7%29.2%28.6%26.1%17.2%28.0%24.1%41.7%32.1%40.0%
12107865771098
15.4%14.3%20.8%17.9%8.7%20.7%40.0%37.9%20.8%28.6%5.0%
4455261011581
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2628242823292529242820
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
Base: All respondents
A Labour minority government
A Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition
A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition
A Labour- Conservative coalition
3220712032
4.5%4.0%3.2%3.8%7.1%16.1%11.1%.0%12.0%7.1%
1111253032
31.8%24.0%12.9%23.1%14.3%32.3%44.4%29.2%32.0%35.7%
7646410127810
9.1%20.0%3.2%26.9%10.7%6.5%11.1%58.3%4.0%21.4%
25173231416
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127242528
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Base: All respondents Cardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
32.1%41.4%31.0%21.7%29.2%31.6%29.6%33.3%22.7%26.9%
9129576875282
3.6%6.9%20.7%8.7%4.2%5.3%14.8%23.8%9.1%12.4%
126211452130
10.7%6.9%13.8%8.7%8.3%10.5%18.5%4.8%4.5%7.3%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
DelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen
West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and PenarthCardiff North
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
16.0%21.7%33.3%16.0%28.0%25.9%27.6%32.1%43.2%30.0%
45947789169
12.0%8.7%22.2%28.0%12.0%18.5%17.2%3.6%18.9%16.7%
3267355175
8.0%4.3%7.4%.0%4.0%7.4%3.4%3.6%2.7%10.0%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
OgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshireMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil
and RhymneyLlanelliIslwynGowerDwyfor Meirionnydd
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
19.2%28.6%25.0%17.9%26.1%41.4%8.0%27.6%16.7%17.9%30.0%
586561228456
7.7%.0%8.3%17.9%13.0%10.3%8.0%6.9%12.5%3.6%.0%
20253322310
7.7%14.3%4.2%7.1%8.7%.0%12.0%.0%.0%7.1%15.0%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea EastRhonddaPreseli
PembrokeshirePontypridd
Constituency
A Labour- Conservative coalition
A Plaid Cymru-Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Don't know (DO NOT READ OUT)
31.8%36.0%45.2%23.1%28.6%25.8%14.8%8.3%28.0%14.3%
79146884274
9.1%8.0%29.0%23.1%14.3%16.1%11.1%4.2%12.0%14.3%
2296453134
13.6%8.0%6.5%.0%25.0%3.2%7.4%.0%12.0%7.1%
Q3. If no party wins an overall majority in the Assembly would you like the next Government to be ...?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
16.9%8.9%29.0%15.4%13.4%11.5%11.0%13.2%
9444935294322138
26.0%37.6%22.6%18.9%23.5%35.4%48.5%31.5%
1451857435113297330
57.1%53.5%48.4%65.8%63.1%53.1%40.5%55.4%
3182631515013719881581
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
24.2%12.1%14.7%12.8%14.3%13.7%13.8%15.0%9.6%3.1%10.0%
812511336435241011
36.4%15.2%14.7%33.7%42.9%31.6%30.3%31.9%32.7%21.9%40.0%
12155298914877513474
39.4%72.7%70.6%53.5%42.9%54.7%55.9%53.1%57.7%75.0%50.0%
13722447292561428560245
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
13.3%11.9%13.7%20.0%10.0%11.4%
935214312
35.1%21.4%26.1%25.0%26.7%21.9%
2459405823
51.6%66.7%60.1%55.0%63.3%66.7%
3612892111970
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
26.7%12.8%12.2%10.6%6.1%24.2%12.9%22.2%33.3%10.0%13.2%
4885102882317
26.7%30.3%29.3%45.7%36.4%21.2%24.2%33.3%22.2%50.0%34.0%
420912431271532518
46.7%57.0%58.5%43.6%57.6%54.5%62.9%44.4%44.4%40.0%52.8%
7393244119183944428
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 302829292324192721221049
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 2820252327252527292837
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 242528262824282329252924
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 22253126283127
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
13.3%14.3%13.8%6.9%8.7%12.5%15.8%18.5%9.5%18.2%13.2%
4442233524138
40.0%42.9%31.0%51.7%34.8%41.7%21.1%18.5%33.3%40.9%31.5%
12129158104579330
46.7%42.9%55.2%41.4%56.5%45.8%63.2%63.0%57.1%40.9%55.4%
1412161213111217129581
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
7.1%5.0%4.0%13.0%11.1%8.0%20.0%11.1%17.2%14.3%18.9%
21133253547
28.6%30.0%36.0%26.1%37.0%24.0%28.0%25.9%20.7%35.7%37.8%
86961067761014
64.3%65.0%60.0%60.9%51.9%68.0%52.0%63.0%62.1%50.0%43.2%
1813151414171317181416
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
12.5%16.0%17.9%7.7%7.1%25.0%14.3%17.4%10.3%4.0%13.8%16.7%
345226443144
25.0%32.0%39.3%19.2%32.1%20.8%32.1%43.5%24.1%20.0%24.1%33.3%
68115959107578
62.5%52.0%42.9%73.1%60.7%54.2%53.6%39.1%65.5%76.0%62.1%50.0%
15131219171315919191812
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents
Yes
No
Don't know
27.3%4.0%9.7%23.1%10.7%12.9%14.8%
6136344
22.7%32.0%45.2%23.1%42.9%29.0%22.2%
581461296
50.0%64.0%45.2%53.8%46.4%58.1%63.0%
11161414131817
100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Q4. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
10.2%5.5%16.1%12.7%7.8%5.4%6.5%8.0%
572752917201384
31.4%45.1%38.7%23.2%27.2%43.4%55.5%37.8%
175222125359162111397
58.3%49.4%45.2%64.0%65.0%51.2%38.0%54.1%
3252431414614119176568
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
9.1%11.1%11.8%7.5%.0%7.9%10.2%9.4%2.9%9.4%.0%
3114660372615330
45.5%13.1%11.8%41.3%52.4%40.8%39.0%35.0%29.8%25.0%10.0%
151343651119199563181
45.5%75.8%76.5%51.2%47.6%51.3%50.8%55.6%67.3%65.6%90.0%
157526452102401298970219
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
6.9%16.7%7.2%20.0%6.7%11.4%
487114212
44.1%14.3%28.1%25.0%23.3%26.7%
3086435728
49.1%69.0%64.7%55.0%70.0%61.9%
3432999112165
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
26.7%7.8%7.3%3.2%6.1%3.0%16.1%11.1%22.2%.0%7.5%
4543321101204
26.7%38.3%39.0%50.0%27.3%27.3%24.2%44.4%55.6%60.0%34.0%
42641647991545618
46.7%53.9%53.7%46.8%66.7%69.7%59.7%44.4%22.2%40.0%58.5%
7372224422233742431
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829292324192721221049
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2820252327252527292837
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
242528262824282329252924
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
3.3%14.3%13.8%10.3%.0%8.3%5.3%11.1%9.5%9.1%8.0%
144302132284
36.7%46.4%31.0%62.1%39.1%37.5%26.3%33.3%38.1%40.9%37.8%
1113918995989397
60.0%39.3%55.2%27.6%60.9%54.2%68.4%55.6%52.4%50.0%54.1%
1811168141313151111568
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
.0%10.0%.0%4.3%14.8%4.0%12.0%.0%.0%3.6%10.8%
02014130014
35.7%20.0%48.0%30.4%25.9%28.0%36.0%37.0%34.5%35.7%48.6%
10412777910101018
64.3%70.0%52.0%65.2%59.3%68.0%52.0%63.0%65.5%60.7%40.5%
1814131516171317191715
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
12.5%8.0%10.7%11.5%14.3%20.8%10.7%8.7%3.4%.0%6.9%4.2%
323345321021
33.3%36.0%35.7%34.6%42.9%29.2%39.3%52.2%55.2%28.0%17.2%41.7%
891091271112167510
54.2%56.0%53.6%53.8%42.9%50.0%50.0%39.1%41.4%72.0%75.9%54.2%
13141514121214912182213
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
9.1%4.0%6.5%23.1%.0%9.7%11.1%
2126033
40.9%32.0%54.8%23.1%57.1%45.2%25.9%
9817616147
50.0%64.0%38.7%53.8%42.9%45.2%63.0%
11161214121417
Q5. Would you like to see the Assembly have the power to raise and lower taxes?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
22.1%14.2%35.5%20.2%23.0%15.3%14.5%18.4%
123701146505729193
39.0%46.7%25.8%42.5%43.8%42.6%44.0%42.6%
2172308979515988447
39.0%39.0%38.7%37.3%33.2%42.1%41.5%39.0%
21719212857215783409
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
30.3%24.2%11.8%17.6%33.3%17.3%19.7%19.4%17.3%15.6%10.0%
1024415578150311851
33.3%45.5%38.2%42.8%23.8%49.4%43.3%39.4%26.9%25.0%20.0%
1145133785231110632882
36.4%30.3%50.0%39.6%42.9%33.3%37.0%41.3%55.8%59.4%70.0%
1230173509156946658197
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
16.3%23.8%22.9%40.0%20.0%19.0%
11410358620
44.2%35.7%35.3%35.0%40.0%47.6%
309155471250
39.5%40.5%41.8%25.0%40.0%33.3%
276176451235
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
26.7%17.0%22.0%12.8%21.2%30.3%29.0%33.3%22.2%20.0%17.0%
4117912710183229
46.7%45.2%41.5%41.5%27.3%27.3%29.0%55.6%44.4%30.0%45.3%
73121739991854324
26.7%37.8%36.6%45.7%51.5%42.4%41.9%11.1%33.3%50.0%37.7%
4261154317142613520
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829292324192721221049
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2820252327252527292837
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
242528262824282329252924
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
13.3%28.6%27.6%17.2%13.0%16.7%21.1%22.2%33.3%27.3%18.4%
4885344676193
36.7%39.3%20.7%55.2%30.4%66.7%36.8%18.5%47.6%54.5%42.6%
1111616716751012447
50.0%32.1%51.7%27.6%56.5%16.7%42.1%59.3%19.0%18.2%39.0%
15915813481644409
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
25.0%10.0%12.0%4.3%22.2%8.0%20.0%29.6%17.2%21.4%21.6%
72316258568
60.7%35.0%36.0%56.5%29.6%52.0%20.0%29.6%24.1%35.7%40.5%
1779138135871015
14.3%55.0%52.0%39.1%48.1%40.0%60.0%40.7%58.6%42.9%37.8%
41113913101511171214
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
20.8%20.0%21.4%19.2%14.3%20.8%10.7%8.7%6.9%12.0%27.6%12.5%
556545322383
58.3%40.0%42.9%38.5%53.6%54.2%64.3%26.1%51.7%52.0%41.4%54.2%
14101210151318615131213
20.8%40.0%35.7%42.3%32.1%25.0%25.0%65.2%41.4%36.0%31.0%33.3%
51010119671512998
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
22.7%16.0%9.7%23.1%7.1%29.0%18.5%
5436295
50.0%40.0%54.8%38.5%57.1%38.7%25.9%
1110171016127
27.3%44.0%35.5%38.5%35.7%32.3%55.6%
6111110101015
Q6. Do you think you will ever see the Assembly led by a party other than Labour in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
61.4%52.2%71.0%64.9%51.6%54.4%57.0%57.1%
34225722148112203114599
20.3%22.4%9.7%14.0%20.3%25.2%25.0%21.3%
113110332449450223
18.3%25.4%19.4%21.1%28.1%20.4%18.0%21.6%
102125648617636227
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
75.8%51.5%76.5%56.3%85.7%51.3%53.9%64.4%66.3%71.9%90.0%
2551264971824013710369239
12.1%16.2%11.8%22.5%4.8%21.8%25.2%21.9%15.4%15.6%.0%
4164199110264351650
12.1%32.3%11.8%21.2%9.5%26.9%20.9%13.8%18.3%12.5%10.0%
4324187212653221941
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
58.2%45.2%58.2%40.0%56.7%56.2%
407198981759
21.5%28.6%14.4%55.0%20.0%21.0%
150122211622
20.3%26.2%27.5%5.0%23.3%22.9%
14211421724
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
60.0%51.9%65.9%59.6%63.6%63.6%72.6%77.8%77.8%70.0%77.4%
9358275621214577741
26.7%21.7%22.0%19.1%21.2%24.2%17.7%11.1%22.2%30.0%18.9%
4150918781112310
13.3%26.4%12.2%21.3%15.2%12.1%9.7%11.1%.0%.0%3.8%
21825205461002
Q7. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829292324192721221049
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2820252327252527292837
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
242528262824282329252924
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
56.7%64.3%58.6%62.1%69.6%58.3%57.9%66.7%71.4%36.4%57.1%
1718171816141118158599
23.3%17.9%24.1%31.0%13.0%25.0%5.3%18.5%14.3%31.8%21.3%
7579361537223
20.0%17.9%17.2%6.9%17.4%16.7%36.8%14.8%14.3%31.8%21.6%
6552447437227
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
46.4%70.0%68.0%73.9%74.1%76.0%64.0%63.0%69.0%50.0%48.6%
1314171720191617201418
28.6%20.0%12.0%13.0%14.8%4.0%12.0%25.9%10.3%17.9%27.0%
843341373510
25.0%10.0%20.0%13.0%11.1%20.0%24.0%11.1%20.7%32.1%24.3%
72533563699
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
37.5%52.0%53.6%53.8%50.0%50.0%42.9%43.5%62.1%60.0%48.3%58.3%
91315141412121018151414
25.0%32.0%25.0%23.1%14.3%33.3%28.6%26.1%20.7%16.0%17.2%8.3%
687648866452
37.5%16.0%21.4%23.1%35.7%16.7%28.6%30.4%17.2%24.0%34.5%33.3%
94661048756108
Q7. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
63.6%60.0%45.2%50.0%42.9%58.1%59.3%
14151413121816
27.3%24.0%35.5%26.9%39.3%16.1%11.1%
661171153
9.1%16.0%19.4%23.1%17.9%25.8%29.6%
2466588
Q7. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Yes
No
Don't know
19.2%8.7%22.6%15.4%14.7%13.9%12.0%14.3%
10743735325224150
55.3%67.9%54.8%63.6%62.7%60.3%59.5%61.2%
30833417145136225119642
25.5%23.4%22.6%21.1%22.6%25.7%28.5%24.5%
142115748499657257
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Yes
No
Don't know
18.2%17.2%14.7%13.8%9.5%11.3%15.7%16.3%20.2%18.8%20.0%
617512225340262162
66.7%68.7%55.9%60.4%66.7%68.8%62.6%49.4%50.0%37.5%40.0%
226819533143221597952124
15.2%14.1%29.4%25.8%23.8%19.9%21.7%34.4%29.8%43.8%40.0%
51410228593555531144
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Yes
No
Don't know
14.6%9.5%15.7%5.0%20.0%12.4%
1024241613
59.9%59.5%66.0%65.0%50.0%65.7%
41925101131569
25.5%31.0%18.3%30.0%30.0%21.9%
17813286923
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Yes
No
Don't know
13.3%12.0%14.6%5.3%27.3%45.5%14.5%22.2%44.4%20.0%24.5%
28365915924213
53.3%64.9%63.4%63.8%30.3%33.3%56.5%66.7%44.4%60.0%52.8%
8448266010113564628
33.3%23.0%22.0%30.9%42.4%21.2%29.0%11.1%11.1%20.0%22.6%
51599291471811212
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829292324192721221049
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2820252327252527292837
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
242528262824282329252924
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
16.7%17.9%13.8%24.1%13.0%.0%15.8%22.2%19.0%4.5%14.3%
5547303641150
46.7%67.9%51.7%51.7%73.9%87.5%63.2%40.7%52.4%68.2%61.2%
14191515172112111115642
36.7%14.3%34.5%24.1%13.0%12.5%21.1%37.0%28.6%27.3%24.5%
1141073341066257
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
7.1%10.0%4.0%8.7%29.6%8.0%24.0%29.6%31.0%14.3%8.1%
22128268943
71.4%40.0%84.0%73.9%25.9%68.0%56.0%55.6%51.7%57.1%51.4%
20821177171415151619
21.4%50.0%12.0%17.4%44.4%24.0%20.0%14.8%17.2%28.6%40.5%
61034126545815
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
.0%12.0%21.4%7.7%14.3%16.7%17.9%17.4%13.8%12.0%20.7%4.2%
036244544361
100.0%52.0%64.3%61.5%64.3%62.5%53.6%47.8%58.6%68.0%65.5%83.3%
241318161815151117171920
.0%36.0%14.3%30.8%21.4%20.8%28.6%34.8%27.6%20.0%13.8%12.5%
094865888543
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Yes
No
Don't know
4.5%28.0%9.7%11.5%3.6%16.1%11.1%
1733153
81.8%56.0%58.1%73.1%64.3%71.0%40.7%
18141819182211
13.6%16.0%32.3%15.4%32.1%12.9%48.1%
341049413
Q8. Do you think you will ever see the Conservatives be part of the Assembly Government in your lifetime?
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
557492312282173732001049
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
339934883214682541601043210
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
699421532030105
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
156904194333362991053
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale
GenderSEG
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
58.3%47.4%67.7%58.8%47.9%52.3%52.0%53.2%
32523321134104195104558
18.9%18.3%19.4%15.4%17.1%21.7%18.0%18.6%
10590635378136195
22.8%34.3%12.9%25.9%35.0%26.0%30.0%28.2%
127169459769760296
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other
Rented from Council or Housing
Association
Rented from private landlordOwner occupied
TenureAge
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
69.7%42.4%52.9%53.8%66.7%47.9%48.4%60.0%64.4%81.3%80.0%
234218475142241239667268
15.2%17.2%20.6%18.8%19.0%21.8%17.7%14.4%18.3%6.3%.0%
5177166410245231920
15.2%40.4%26.5%27.4%14.3%30.3%33.9%25.6%17.3%12.5%20.0%
5409242314286411842
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
No skills in Welsh
Other combination of
skills
Speaks reads and writes
Welsh
Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh
Speaks but does not read or write Welsh
Understands spoken Welsh
only
Welsh Language Skills
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
54.4%42.9%55.6%45.0%50.0%48.6%
380188591551
20.2%9.5%14.4%15.0%16.7%19.0%
1414223520
25.5%47.6%30.1%40.0%33.3%32.4%
178204681034
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to
vote
Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
53.3%46.8%65.9%53.2%69.7%72.7%71.0%77.8%77.8%90.0%67.9%
8323275023244477936
33.3%19.4%14.6%18.1%12.1%15.2%16.1%22.2%22.2%.0%18.9%
5134617451022010
13.3%33.8%19.5%28.7%18.2%12.1%12.9%.0%.0%10.0%13.2%
22338276480017
Q9. Does this make you feel?
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
302829292324192721221049
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2820252327252527292837
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
242528262824282329252924
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Base: All respondents 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
22253126283127
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgendBrecon and
RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfonAlyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
46.7%64.3%58.6%51.7%60.9%29.2%47.4%70.4%61.9%40.9%53.2%
14181715147919139558
16.7%3.6%20.7%27.6%21.7%20.8%21.1%7.4%9.5%22.7%18.6%
5168554225195
36.7%32.1%20.7%20.7%17.4%50.0%31.6%22.2%28.6%36.4%28.2%
119664126668296
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigion
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
42.9%75.0%28.0%43.5%70.4%52.0%60.0%74.1%72.4%39.3%59.5%
121571019131520211122
17.9%10.0%28.0%21.7%3.7%12.0%8.0%7.4%10.3%21.4%24.3%
52751322369
39.3%15.0%44.0%34.8%25.9%36.0%32.0%18.5%17.2%39.3%16.2%
11311879855116
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi
reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
45.8%36.0%64.3%46.2%53.6%58.3%60.7%56.5%55.2%60.0%37.9%54.2%
11918121514171316151113
20.8%28.0%10.7%15.4%14.3%20.8%14.3%17.4%20.7%16.0%24.1%25.0%
573445446476
33.3%36.0%25.0%38.5%32.1%20.8%25.0%26.1%24.1%24.0%37.9%20.8%
89710957676115
Q9. Does this make you feel?
(c…
Ynys MônWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East
Constituency
Happy
Frustrated
Neither
54.5%36.0%51.6%38.5%50.0%58.1%55.6%
1291610141815
18.2%24.0%35.5%38.5%25.0%19.4%14.8%
461110764
27.3%40.0%12.9%23.1%25.0%22.6%29.6%
61046778
Q9. Does this make you feel?
Welsh Assembly Election Opinion Poll - Unweighted Tabulations
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