Welcome to the IPCC. Outline What is the IPCC? – Purpose – Organization About the SREX About the AR5 Key aspects of the IPCCs work Significance of the.

Welcome to the IPCC

Outline

• What is the IPCC?– Purpose– Organization

• About the SREX• About the AR5• Key aspects of the IPCC’s work• Significance of the SREX and linkages

with the AR5 and broader global environmental change research initiatives

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Formed by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization to conduct assessments of the state of knowledge of climate change, the vulnerabilities to and consequences of any changes, and the options to avoid, prepare for, and respond to changes

• All governments that signed either the UNEP or WMO convention are members of the IPCC

Co-Chairs

• WGI: – Thomas Stocker (University of Bern)– Dahe Qin (China Meteorological

Administration)

• WGII: – Vicente Barros (CIMA-FCEN)– Christopher Field (Carnegie Institution)

• WGIII: – Ottmar Edenhofer (Potsdam Institute for

Climate Impact Research)– Ramon Pichs Madruga (CIEM)– Youba Sokona (Sahara and Sahel

Observatory)

Technical Support Units

• WGI: Pauline Midgley, Ph.D.– Gian-Kasper Plattner, Deputy Head -

Science– Simon Allen, Project Scientist– Melinda Tignor, Deputy Head -

Administration

• WGII: Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH– Dave Dokken, Director of Operations– Michael Mastrandrea, Scientist– Rob Genova, IT Specialist– Sandy MacCracken, Administrative

Assistant

Role of Governments

• Governments request the scientific community to conduct comprehensive assessments

• Governments elect a Bureau to ensure assessments are conducted following the IPCC Rules and Procedures

• Proposed outlines are discussed and approved line-by-line by the governments in a Plenary

• Bureau approves the chapter author teams– Based on scientific expertise, geography, &

gender

Role of Governments (cont’d)

• Governments participate in the review process and in the IPCC Plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work program are taken and reports are accepted, adopted, and approved

• Summary for Policymakers approved line-by-line by the governments in a final Plenary

Review: multiple levels • Zero-order draft: internal review

(consistency, coverage)• First-order draft: formal external peer review

(including issues of interpretation, missed literature & presentation)

• Second-order draft: combined external expert and government review

• Author teams need to provide written response to review comments

• Review editor(s) (like the editors of a journal) oversee the review process

• In the AR4 for WG 2, there were over 40,000 comments from 1181 Expert Reviewers, from 92 countries and 41 Governments

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate

Change Adaptation

• Assessment consisting of 9 chapters• Technical Summary• Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)– Line of sight required from SPM to

assessment

SREX

1 = New dimensions in disaster risk

2 = Determinants of risk

3 = Changes in climate extremes

4 = Observed and projected impacts of changes in climate extremes

5 = Managing risks at the local level

6 = Managing risks at the national level

7 = Managing risks at the international level

8 = Sustainable future

9 = Case studies

Provisional Schedule

• 29 January 2010 – 0-order drafts due to TSUs

• 3 February - 5 March 2010 – Informal Peer Review

• 11 March 2010– Collated comments to chapters

• 22-25 March 2010– 2nd Lead Authors Meeting – Hanoi,

Vietnam

•  9 July 2010– 1st-order drafts due to TSUs

• 26 July - 20 September 2010– SREX Expert Review 

• 29 September 2010– Collated Expert Review comments to

chapters

• 25-28 October 2010– 3rd Lead Authors Meeting – Geneva

• 3 January 2011– 2nd-order drafts due to TSUs

• 12 January - 9 March 2011– SREX Government/Expert Review 

• 18 March 2011– Collated Government/Expert Review

comments to chapters

• 11-14 April 2011– 4th Lead Authors Meeting – Location TBD

• 15 June 2011– Final drafts due to TSUs

• 24 August 2011– SREX Final Government Distribution

• 2 September 2011– Collated SPM comments from

Governments

• 23-24 September 2011– SREX Pre-Plenary CLA Meeting

• 26-30 September 2011– Joint WG1/WG2 Session to approve SREX

SPM and accept underlying document

Outline for the Working Group II Contribution to

the Fifth Assessment Report

Major themes

• Building from the structure of the AR4• Better integration of climate science with

climate impacts• Broader range of assessed impacts• Climate change in the context of other

stresses• Better treatment of extremes and disasters• Framing to support good decisions,

including information on risk• Expanded treatment of adaptation• Better integration of adaptation, mitigation,

and development• More comprehensive treatment of regional

aspects of climate change

Major Sections or “Superchapters”

• Part A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS– Context for the AR5– Natural and managed resources and systems,

and their uses– Human settlements, industry, and

infrastructure– Human health, well-being, and security– Adaptation– Multi-sector impacts, risks, vulnerabilities,

and opportunities

• Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTS– With WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration

PART A: GLOBAL & SECTORAL ASPECTS

 Context for the AR51 Point of departure2 Foundations for

decisionmaking  Natural and Managed

Resources and Systems, and Their Uses

3 Freshwater resources 4 Terrestrial and inland water

systems5 Coastal systems and low-

lying areas6 Ocean systems7 Food production systems

and food security Human Settlements, Industry,

and Infrastructure8 Urban Areas9 Rural Areas10 Key economic sectors and

services

Human Health, Well-Being, and Security

11Human health12Human security13Livelihoods and poverty Adaptation14Adaptation needs and

options15Adaptation planning and

implementation16Adaptation opportunities,

constraints, and limits17Economics of adaptation  Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks,

Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities

18Detection and attribution of observed impacts

19Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities

20 Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development

Part B: REGIONAL ASPECTSwith WG1 and WG3 input and collaboration

21.Regional Context• Introduction• Information on observed climate changes and relevant non-

climate factors• Regional projections: added value and limitations• Similarities and pertinent differences in systems across regions• Cross-regional hotspots

Regional Chapters22. Africa 23. Europe24. Asia25. Australasia26. North America 27. Central and South America28. Polar Regions29. Small Islands30. Open Oceans

[Context] = common topics addressed in each sectoral and regional chapter– Observed impacts, with detection and attribution– Projected integrated climate change impacts, with regional

variation by scenario and time slice– Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks

• Vulnerability to key drivers (including extremes)• Economic, social, and environmental context for uncertain futures under

alternative development pathways• Multiple interacting stresses• Uncertainty• Valuation of impacts and adaptation• Key vulnerabilities

– Adaptation and managing risks• Adaptation needs and gaps (based on assessed impacts and

vulnerabilities)• Practical experiences of adaptation, including lessons learned• Observed and expected barriers to adaptation• Observed and expected limits to adaptation• Facilitating adaptation and avoiding maladaptation• Planned and autonomous adaptation• Potential and residual impacts• Thresholds and irreversible changes

– Case studies– Research and data gaps

The IPCC

• Does not conduct research or monitor trends

• Does conduct comprehensive assessments

• Does provide statements that are policy-relevant and policy-neutral

• Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and comprehensive assessment

• Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports

Dealing with uncertainty: Confidence and Likelihood

• Likelihood is a statement about the uncertainty in the occurrence of specific outcomes, based on expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence

• Confidence is a statement about the correctness of underlying data, models or analyses, based on expert judgment

Likelihood is the Assessed Probability of Occurrence of an Outcome

• Virtually certain >99%• Extremely likely >95%• Very likely >90%• Likely >66%• More likely than not > 50%• About as likely as not 33% to 66%• Unlikely <33%• Very unlikely <10%• Extremely unlikely <5%• Exceptionally unlikely <1%

Confidence is the Assessed Chance of a Finding Being Correct

• Very high confidence at least 9 out of 10• High confidence about 8 out of 10• Medium confidence about 5 out of 10• Low confidence about 2 out of 10• Very low confidence less than 1 out of 10

Example of usage

• Emerging evidence of climate change effects on human health shows that climate change has:– altered the distribution of some infectious disease

vectors (medium confidence);– altered the seasonal distribution of some

allergenic pollen species (high confidence);– heatwave-related deaths (medium confidence)

• Projected trends in climate-change-related exposures of importance to human health will:– increase malnutrition and consequent disorders,

including those relating to child growth and development (high confidence); ……

Using non-published / non-peer reviewed material (aka grey literature)

• Particularly as we move towards practice and implementation, diversity of sources of information is increasing

• Authors need to critically assess sources for quality and validity

• Non-peer-reviewed sources will be listed in the reference sections of IPCC Reports. These will be integrated with references for the peer-reviewed sources. These will be integrated with references to the peer reviewed sources stating how the material can be accessed, but will be followed by a statement that they are not published

• Copy of source together with relevant meta-data to be sent to the WG bureau

• Specific responsibilities for Bureau, Secretariat

WHY IS THE SREX SO IMPORTANT?

Putting adaptation into practice: Integration or mainstreaming: where and how?

Disaster management: climate-related hazards

Development activities: infrastructure, public services

Resource management: water, forestry

Adaptation

Climate change poses a challenge in each of these contexts for integration

• Disaster management often focuses on relief– In terms of long-term adaptive capacity, what

is more important – reducing the immediate impact (relief) vs. restoring the flow of economic goods and services (recovery)?

• Development planning authority is usually local– Can we get mal-adaptation, because the

climate signal is at a spatial and temporal scale which is not perceived?

• Can operational management accommodate long-term changes in climate baseline?– How useful is the 30-year climate “normal”?– Are we able to recognize and assess multiple

stresses and path dependence?

The importance of (local) strategiesand actions

• In practice, this is where the different communities (across science & across practice) come together

• In order to manage risk, need to understand how agents and stakeholders perceive, evaluate and respond to risk– Response to chronic vs. acute hazard

• This process happens at different scales:– Spatial: local – regional – national – international – Institutional: individual – family – community – regions– Temporal: relief – recovery – resilience

• Unfortunately, much of our research effort is at specific scales, and findings are often not generalizable and hard to translate across scale