Market Outlook THE WEEK THAT WAS WEEK AHEAD Market tumbles amid global rout Domestic equity market joined a sell-off in global equities amid concerns about a slowdown in the world economy. Global financial markets have been hit hard by a range of worries, including the US-China trade war, a rout in emerging market currencies, rising borrowing costs and bond yields. In the week ended Friday, 26 October 2018, the Sensex fell 966.32 points or 2.82% to settle at 33,349.31. The Nifty 50 index fell 273.55 points or 2.65% to settle at 10,030. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 188.15 points or 1.34% to settle at 13,870.15. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 485.28 points or 3.45% to settle at 13597.64. On the macro front, the fiscal deficit of the Central government has widened in the first half of 2018-19 to 95.3% of the Budget Estimate (BE), mainly on account of slow growth in revenue collections. The deficit was at 91.3% of BE at September-end of the last financial year. The Government of India has received Rs 7,09,483 crore (39.03% of corresponding BE 18-19 of Total Receipts) upto September 2018 comprising Rs 5,82,783 crore Tax Revenue (Net to Centre), Rs 1,08,969 crore of Non-Tax Revenue and Rs 17,731 crore of Non-Debt Capital Receipts. Non-Debt Capital Receipts consists of Recovery of Loans (Rs 7,786 crore) and Disinvestment of PSUs (Rs 9,945 crore). Overseas, the European Central Bank (ECB) reaffirmed its plan to end the asset-buying program at the heart of its quantitative-easing strategy in December provided data show inflation remains on track to eventually meet its target. The ECB left interest rates unchanged and repeated that they will remain at present levels at least through the summer of 2019. On the US data front, the flash reading of IHS Markit's manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to a five-month high of 55.9 in October from 55.6, while the flash services PMI rose to a two-month high of 54.7 from 53.5 in September. A reading of at least 50 indicates improving conditions. Meanwhile, existing-home sales fell 3.4% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors, the lowest level since November 2015. Last weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed unwavering support for non-state firms, while the country's stock exchanges committed to help manage share-pledge risks. China also released its widely-expected plan to cut personal income taxes after data showed the nation's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009. Macroeconomic data, Q2 results to provide direction Quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. Auto stocks will be in focus as the auto companies will start announcing monthly sales numbers for October 2018 starting from 1 November 2018. Among corporate earnings, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Colgate-Palmolive (India), Tata Power Company and Union Bank Of India will announce July-September 2018 results on 29 October 2018. Bank of Baroda and Tech Mahindra will announce July-September 2018 results on 30 October 2018. Adani Power, Dabur India, Larsen & Toubro, Lupin, Tata Motors and Vedanta will announce July-September 2018 results on 31 October 2018. Housing Development Finance Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation will announce July-September 2018 results on 1 November 2018. Axis Bank, Indian Oil Corporation, NTPC and Steel Authority of India will announce July-September 2018 results on 2 November 2018. India's infrastructure output data for September will be unveiled on Wednesday, 31 October 2018. Infrastructure output in India increased 4.2% year-on-year in August of 2018, following an upwardly revised 7.3% rise in July. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for October 2018 will be announced on Thursday, 1 November 2018. The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in September of 2018 from a three-month low of 51.7 a month earlier. Overseas, Japan's unemployment data for September 2018 will be announced on Tuesday, 30 October 2018. The unemployment rate in Japan edged down to 2.4% in August of 2018 from 2.5% in the previous month. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on interest rate on Wednesday, 31 October 2018. The Bank of Japan left shorter-term interest rates unchanged at -0.1 percent on September 19th, and kept the target for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at around zero, saying the economy will continue to expand modestly despite intensifying trade tensions. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for October will be unveiled on Thursday, 1 November 2018. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to a 16-month low of 50 in September of 2018 from 50.6 in the previous month. US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for October will be unveiled on Thursday, 1 November 2018. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 59.8 in September of 2018 from 61.3 in August which was the highest reading since May of 2004. US non-farm payrolls for October will come out on Friday, 2 November 2018. Non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 134 thousand in September of 2018, following an upwardly revised 270 thousand in August. US balance of trade data for September will be declared on Friday, 2 November 2018. The US trade deficit increased to a six-month high of $53.2 billion in August as exports dropped further amid declining soybean shipments and imports hit a record high amid stronger demand for cars, industrial supplies and petroleum. US unemployment data for October will be unveiled on Friday, 2 November 2018. The unemployment rate in the US declined to 3.7% in September of 2018 from 3.9% in each of the previous two months. Nifty Outlook (10030): Bank Nifty Outlook (24421): USDINR Outlook (73.40) : EURINR Outlook (83.30): Dollar Index Outlook (96.13): During the last week Nifty has given a correction from 10408 to 10005 and closed at lower level. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 9890. Two consecutive closes below this level it can correct up to around 9690. Its immediate resistance is likely to be seen around 10250. Closes above this level next resistance is likely to be seen around 10450. During the last week USDINR has made a lower top formation and closed at 20 DEMA of 73.37. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 73.10. Closed below this level next support is likely to be seen around 72.50 and 72.30 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 73.50. and 73.75 for next week. During the last week EURINR has made a lower top formation and closed below 50 DEMA of 83.75. Its support is likely to be seen around 82.50 and 81.50 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 83.75. Closes above this level next resistance is likely to be seen around 84.20 and 84.50 for next week. Duringthe last week DX has made a high of 96.62 and given a correction from this level up to 96.05. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 95.80. Closes below this level next support is likely to be seen around 95.30 and 95.10 for next week. Ite resistance is likely to be seen around 96.50. Two consecutive closes above this level it can go up to around 99.50 and 101. During the last week Bank Nifty has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of 25200. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 24100 and 23450 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 24900 and 25200 for next week. Weekly Newsletter | 28 Oct - 03 Nov.2018 th rd Market Outlook Cash Market Data Market Indicator Primary Mkt. Updates Pivot Levels Next Week Events Index Particulars Nifty Sensex 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low 11760.20 9951.90 10030 38989.65 32483.84 33349.31 Close Currency Update CMP Net Change USDINR EURINR 83.30 73.40 0.06% -1.11% Institutional Activity ( Cr.) FII DII Week -5751.17 Month (Oct.) Year (2018) -71794.83 21019.04 -25184.74 4508.62 Primary Market Update Date Price Band Company - - - - - - - 103574.22 I P O Nitial ublic ffering Equities Commodities Demat IPOs Research Mutual Funds Currencies Training
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WeeklyNewsletter|...52 WEEKS HIGH/LOW ALL TIME HIGH/LOW Scrip Rate H/L Prev H/L on Scrip Rate H/L Prev H/L on ATUL 3330.05 H 31-Aug-18 ATUL 3330.05 H 31-Aug-18 GICRE 314 L 10-Jan-18
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Market Outlook
THEWEEKTHATWAS
WEEK AHEAD
Market tumblesamidglobal rout
Domestic equity market joined a sell-off in global equities amid concerns about a slowdown in the world economy. Global financial markets have been hit hard by a range of worries,including theUS-China tradewar, a rout inemergingmarketcurrencies, rising borrowingcosts andbondyields.
In theweekendedFriday, 26October2018, the Sensex fell 966.32pointsor2.82%to settle at 33,349.31.TheNifty50 index fell 273.55pointsor2.65%to settleat 10,030.
TheBSEMid-Cap index fell 188.15pointsor 1.34%to settle at13,870.15.TheBSESmall-Cap index fell 485.28pointsor3.45%to settleat 13597.64.
On themacro front, the fiscal deficit of the Central government has widened in the first half of 2018-19 to 95.3% of the Budget Estimate (BE), mainly on account of slow growth in revenuecollections. Thedeficitwasat 91.3%ofBEat September-endof the last financial year.
The Government of India has received Rs 7,09,483 crore (39.03% of corresponding BE 18-19 of Total Receipts) upto September 2018 comprising Rs 5,82,783 crore Tax Revenue (Net toCentre), Rs1,08,969 croreofNon-TaxRevenueandRs 17,731 croreofNon-DebtCapital Receipts.Non-DebtCapitalReceipts consistsof Recoveryof Loans (Rs7,786 crore)andDisinvestmentof PSUs (Rs9,945crore).
Overseas, the European Central Bank (ECB) reaffirmed its plan to end the asset-buying program at the heart of its quantitative-easing strategy in December provided data show inflationremainson track toeventuallymeet its target. The ECB left interest ratesunchangedand repeated that theywill remainatpresent levels at least through the summerof 2019.
On theUSdata front, the flash readingof IHSMarkit'smanufacturing purchasingmanagers indexrose toa five-month highof 55.9 inOctober from55.6,while the flash servicesPMI rose toatwo-month high of 54.7 from 53.5 in September. A reading of at least 50 indicates improving conditions. Meanwhile, existing-home sales fell 3.4% in August, according to the NationalAssociationof Realtors, the lowest level sinceNovember2015.
Last weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed unwavering support for non-state firms, while the country's stock exchanges committed to help manage share-pledge risks. China alsoreleased itswidely-expectedplan to cutpersonal incometaxesafter data showed thenation's economygrewat the slowestpace since2009.
Macroeconomicdata,Q2 results toprovidedirection
Quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupeeagainst thedollar andcrudeoil pricemovementwill dictate trendon thebourses in thenear term.
Auto stockswill be in focusas the auto companieswill start announcingmonthly salesnumbers forOctober2018starting from1November2018.
Among corporate earnings, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Colgate-Palmolive (India), Tata Power Company and Union Bank Of India will announce July-September 2018 results on 29October2018.
AxisBank, IndianOil Corporation,NTPCandSteel Authority of Indiawill announce July-September2018 resultson2November2018.
India's infrastructureoutputdata forSeptemberwill beunveiled onWednesday, 31October2018. Infrastructureoutput in India increased4.2%year-on-year inAugust of2018, following anupwardly revised7.3%rise in July.
NikkeiManufacturing PMI (PurchasingManagers' Index) forOctober 2018will be announced onThursday, 1November2018.TheNikkei IndiaManufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in Septemberof 2018 fromathree-month lowof51.7 amonthearlier.
Overseas, Japan's unemployment data for September 2018 will be announced on Tuesday, 30 October 2018. The unemployment rate in Japan edged down to 2.4% in August of 2018 from2.5% in thepreviousmonth.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on interest rate onWednesday, 31 October 2018. The Bank of Japan left shorter-term interest rates unchanged at -0.1 percent on September 19th, andkept the target for the10-year Japanesegovernmentbondyieldat aroundzero, saying theeconomywill continuetoexpandmodestly despite intensifying trade tensions.
China's CaixinManufacturing PMI data forOctoberwill be unveiled on Thursday, 1 November 2018. The Caixin ChinaGeneralManufacturing PMI fell to a 16-month lowof 50 in Septemberof 2018 from50.6 in thepreviousmonth.
US ISMManufacturing PMI data forOctoberwill be unveiled on Thursday, 1 November 2018. The Institute for SupplyManagement'sManufacturing PMI in the US fell to 59.8 in Septemberof 2018 from61.3 inAugustwhichwas thehighest reading sinceMayof 2004.
US non-farmpayrolls forOctoberwill comeoutonFriday, 2 November 2018. Non farmpayrolls in theUnited States increased by 134 thousand in September of 2018, following an upwardlyrevised270 thousand inAugust.
US balanceof tradedata for Septemberwill bedeclared on Friday, 2November 2018. TheUS trade deficit increased toa six-month high of $53.2 billion inAugust as exportsdropped furtheramiddeclining soybeanshipmentsand importshit a recordhighamid strongerdemand for cars, industrial supplies andpetroleum.
USunemploymentdata forOctoberwill beunveiledonFriday, 2November 2018. Theunemployment rate in theUSdeclined to 3.7% inSeptember of 2018 from3.9% in each of theprevioustwomonths.
Nifty Outlook (10030):
Bank Nifty Outlook (24421):
USDINROutlook (73.40) :
EURINROutlook (83.30):
Dollar IndexOutlook (96.13):
During the last week Nifty has given a correction from 10408 to 10005 and closed at lower level. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 9890. Two consecutive closes below this level it cancorrect up toaround9690. Its immediateresistance is likely tobeseenaround10250.Closesabove this levelnext resistance is likely tobeseenaround10450.
During the lastweekUSDINR hasmade a lower top formation and closed at 20DEMAof 73.37. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around73.10. Closed below this level next support is likely tobe seenaround72.50and72.30 fornextweek. Its resistance is likely tobeseenaround73.50. and73.75 fornextweek.
During the lastweekEURINRhasmadea lower top formation andclosedbelow50DEMAof 83.75. Its support is likely tobe seenaround82.50and81.50fornextweek. Its resistance is likely tobe seenaround83.75.Closesabovethis levelnext resistance is likely tobe seenaround84.20and84.50 fornextweek.
Duringthe lastweekDXhasmade a highof 96.62 and given a correction from this level up to 96.05. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 95.80. Closes below this level next support islikely tobeseenaround95.30and95.10 fornextweek. Ite resistance is likely tobe seenaround96.50. Twoconsecutive closesabovethis level it cango uptoaround99.50and101.
During the last week Bank Nifty has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of 25200. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 24100 and 23450 for next week. Itsresistance is likely to be seenaround24900and25200 fornextweek.
Weekly Newsletter | 28 Oct - 03 Nov.2018th rd
Market Outlook
Cash Market Data
Market Indicator
Primary Mkt. Updates
Pivot Levels
Next Week Events
Index
Particulars Nifty Sensex
52 Wk High
52 Wk Low
11760.20
9951.90
10030
38989.65
32483.84
33349.31Close
Currency UpdateCMP Net Change
USDINR
EURINR 83.30
73.40 0.06%
-1.11%
Institutional Activity ( Cr.)FII DII
Week -5751.17
Month (Oct.)
Year (2018) -71794.83
21019.04-25184.74
4508.62
Primary Market UpdateDate Price BandCompany
- --
---
-
103574.22
IPO
Nitialublicffering
Equities Commodities Demat IPOs ResearchMutual FundsCurrencies Training
Scrip Rate H/L Prev H/L on Scrip Rate H/L Prev H/L on
ATUL 3330.05 H 31-Aug-18 ATUL 3330.05 H 31-Aug-18
GICRE 314 L 10-Jan-18 GICRE 314 L 1-Oct-18
BALMLAWRIE 181.85 L 10-Aug-18 IDFCBANK 33 L 10-Aug-18
BASF 1621 L 10-Sep-18 RCOM 9.8 L 15-Nov-18
TATACOFFEE 93.55 L 10-Jan-18 RNAVAL 11.1 L 10-Sep-18
ESCORTS 552 L 10-Aug-18 MAXINDIA 66.1 L 10-Aug-18
SCHAEFFLER 4781.05 L 16-Oct-18 HUDCO 40.5 L 11-Oct-18
GNFC 321.35 L 10-Jan-18 TIFIN 480.15 L 10-Aug-18
HSIL 231 L 10-Sep-18 - - - -
TATASPONGE 781 L 10-Sep-18 - - - -
INCREASE IN OPEN INTEREST
Symbol Expiry Date Last Price Chg (Rs) Chg (%) Open Interest MWPL Reached (%) Change in OI (%)YESBANK 29-Nov-18 182.1 -17.70 -8.86% 120456000 6265000 5.49%EQUITAS 29-Nov-18 97.85 -30.95 -24.03% 14672000 5540000 60.67%TATAMOTORS 29-Nov-18 168.45 1.95 1.17% 65607000 3306000 5.31%ICICIBANK 29-Nov-18 315 -4.80 -1.50% 95928250 3198250 3.45%BHEL 29-Nov-18 66.15 -4.15 -5.90% 43890000 2362500 5.69%
DECREASE IN OPEN INTEREST
Symbol Expiry Date Last Price Chg (Rs) Chg (%) Open Interest MWPL Reached (%) Change in OI (%)NTPC 29-Nov-18 159.25 -3.50 -2.15% 31572000 -3544000 -10.09%DISHTV 29-Nov-18 40.05 3.55 9.73% 39216000 -2536000 -6.07%SAIL 29-Nov-18 63.35 0.05 0.08% 66276000 -1032000 -1.53%VEDL 29-Nov-18 203.3 -1.25 -0.61% 31031000 -950250 -2.97%RPOWER 29-Nov-18 27.2 -0.75 -2.68% 41119000 -897000 -2.13%
INCREASE IN OI IN CALLS
Symbol Expiry Date Option Type Strike Price Last Price Turnover Premium (Lacs Open Interest Open Int ChgBHEL 29-Nov-18 CE 75 1 200.93 5242500 2767500YESBANK 29-Nov-18 CE 200 11.1 1570.56 2661750 2059750ITC 29-Nov-18 CE 300 3.2 354.09 3009600 1910400ICICIBANK 29-Nov-18 CE 320 11.7 1030.63 1399750 715000GMRINFRA 29-Nov-18 CE 17.5 0.4 30.17 5220000 1530000
INCREASE IN OI IN PUTS
Symbol Expiry Date Option Type Strike Price Last Price Turnover Premium (Lacs Open Interest Open Int ChgYESBANK 29-Nov-18 PE 180 17 1154.27 1461250 796250ICICIBANK 29-Nov-18 PE 300 8.8 526.52 2255000 1207250EQUITAS 29-Nov-18 PE 90 6.6 526.64 736000 736000ITC 29-Nov-18 PE 270 4.95 289.64 919200 156000BHEL 29-Nov-18 PE 65 3.15 120.1 1650000 975000
CRUDE OIL : Sell Nov. Put option strike of 4800 @ CMP 70.Maximum Profit : Put PremiumMaximum loss : UnlimitedStop Loss : Exit in Put option If Crude oil closes Below 4850.
COPPER : Sell Nov. Call option strike of 460 @ CMP 4.85.Maximum Profit : Call PremiumMaximum loss : UnlimitedStop Loss : Exit in Call option If Copper closes Above 455.
COPPER : Sell Nov. Put option strike of 430 @ CMP 4.60.Maximum Profit : Put PremiumMaximum loss : UnlimitedStop Loss : Exit in Put option If Copper closes Below 435.
COPRPORATE ACTION
Symbol Series Face Value(Rs.) Purpose Ex-Date Record DateASIANPAINT EQ 1 Interim Dividend - Rs 2.85 Per Sh 29-Oct-18 30-Oct-18
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