Weekly Technical Outlook - HDFC securities

A Chart Book On Benchmark,Sectors, Global Market and Inter Market Analysis

WeeklyTechnical Outlook

19 February 2022

Nifty: Placed to show downward correction from the lower top. The retest of key lower supports of 17000-16800 is likely

Nifty Daily Chart

Formation of lower tops. Chances of revisit of crucial supports

Nifty Weekly Chart

Inability of bulls to show decisive upmove from the key lower supports

Mid Cap and Small Cap: Weak upside bounce and the downside breakout of support. More weakness could be in store.

Mid Cap 100-Weekly Chart

Weak upside bounce recently from the support. Compared to previous upside bounces

Small Cap 100-Weekly Chart

Downside breakout of crucial uptrendline support at 10700. More weaknessis expected

Sectoral View: Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma

Nifty IT: May correct further towards 33000 levels in coming weeks

The IT index was trading in a downward slopping channel line from last several sessions.After facing resistance near top of the channel line, Index fell by making lower top lowerbottom formation.

From last couple of sessions Index is trading below 21 day EMA with all major oscillatorsalso giving bearish indications. This indicates bearish move will continue in the IT sectors forcoming sessions.

With overall negative chart pattern, one may expect 33000 levels in the coming weeks.Index may face stiff resistance near 35000 levels. IT stocks with negative bias are Coforge,LTI, Mind Tree & INFY

Nifty Pharma: Formation of Lower tops and lower bottoms

The Nifty Pharma index has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms on daily chart whichis negative development.

Index is trading below the key moving averages like 21, 50 & 200 day EMAs and the prevailingtrend remains down. In addition to that, other indicators like MACD is placed at negativecrossover and the DMI is also negative. Positive DI is trading below Negative DI and the ADX ishovering around 16 levels with flat note .

The index supports are placed at 13119 and 12951 levels and resistances are placed at 13520and 13690 levels.

Stocks with negative bias are Gland Pharma, Auro Pharma, APL LTD and STAR..

Disclaimer: Please Check with your RM/Analyst beforehand for Entry, Target and Stoploss levels in case you wish to act on any of the above recommendations.

Nifty Pharma Daily ChartNifty IT Daily Chart

Weekly RRG Analysis; Auto, Metal and PSU Bank Leading; IT, Media, Realty Weakening

Source: StockCharts

Market Breadth Getting WeakNumber of Stocks above 200 DMA has reached below 50% in Nifty 500

NSE500 : Stocks above 200 DMA Reaches below 50%

Bullish Breakout in U.S. GoldRising Inflation and Geo-Political Tensions could Result in Rise in Gold

Breakout

U.S. Gold Weekly Charts

Global Market Trend: S&P 500, FTSE, Straits and Jakarta

S&P 500 Daily Chart

Broken its recent supports and closed below 20 day SMA Expected Move: Further downsides likely

FTSE Daily Chart

Broken its recent supports and closed below 20 day SMA Expected Move: Further downsides likely

Straits Daily Chart

In a strong uptrend and headed towards previous highsExpected Move: Further upsides likely

In a strong uptrend and headed towards new life highsExpected Move: Further upsides likely

Jakarta Daily Chart

Technical Observations:

The choppy movement continued in the market for the third consecutive session on Friday and Nifty closed the daylower by 28 points amidst minor volatility.

A small body of positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. Technically, this patternindicate a continuation of narrow range movement in the market. The negative candle of the last two sessions and theupper shadow of Friday's candle signal an emergence of minor selling pressure around 17400 levels.

The negative sequence of lower tops is intact as per daily timeframe chart and the chances of further weakness islikely as long as the recent lower top is not violated on the upside at 17490 levels.

Historically, the Nifty has displayed sharp weakness from the lower highs as per daily timeframe chart. Hence, furtherweakness from here could result in retest of supports around 17000-16800 levels.

Nifty on the weekly chart is placed at the significant trend line support around 17000 levels. Formation of upper andlower shadow in the weekly candle indicate presence of high volatility in the market. The recent formation of lower topat 17794 in week before last cant rule out the possibility of lower bottom formation.

The broad market indices like NSE Mid Cap and Small Caps are showing negative indications. The crucial support isbroken for small cap and the midcap is set to show further weakness.

The Bank Nifty has failed to sustain the recent upside bounce. Though, the chart patterns of Bank Nifty is slightlybetter than Nifty, the underlying could face selling pressure in the coming week.

Conclusion:

Market Outlook The short term trend of Nifty continues to be choppy. Inability of bulls to sustain above the immediate hurdle of 17500levels could eventually result in a downward correction and that could possibly drag Nifty down to the supports ofaround 17000-16800 levels in the near term.

Weak upside bounces from the important supports and frequent testing of supports could eventually result in a decisivedownside breakout of the support. A decline below 16800 could open the next downside of around 16400 levels. On thecontrary side, a sustainable move above 17500-17600 levels is likely to change the negative set up.

The weakness is expected in broad market indices like midcap and small cap segments. Sectorally, Energy, Metal andAuto could face less selling pressure. While IT, Realty, Pharma and PSE sectors are expected to decline further.

Trend and Key levels to watch

Nifty (CMP 17276) Bank Nifty (CMP 37599)

Trend Negative Negative

Immediate Support 17160 37080

Further Support 17050 36650

Immediate Resistance 17390 38120

Further Resistance 17520 38610

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