Market Outlook THE WEEK THAT WAS Nifty maintains 11,000 amid volatility Domestic markets settled with modest losses in truncated trading week. The Nifty ended above the psychological 11,000 level after falling below that level during the week. Concerns over economic slowdown, weak earnings and global trade volatility weighed on investor sentiment. In the week ended on Friday, 16 August 2019, the Sensex fell 231.58 points or 0.62% to settle at 37,350.33. The Nifty 50 index fell 61.85 points or 0.56% to settle at 11,047.80. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 179.15 points or 1.31% to settle at 13,490.9. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 114.91 points or 0.90% to settle at 12,584.59. The markets were closed on Monday, 12 August 2019 on the account of Bakri Id. The domestic equity market slumped on Tuesday, 13 August 2019 dragged by auto, telecom and financial stocks. Concerns around protests in Hong Kong and an Argentine currency crash amid fears of global economic slowdown, sapped investors risk appetite. The Sensex crashed 623.75 points or 1.66% to settle at 36,958.16. The Nifty 50 index slumped 183.80 points or 1.65% to settle at 10,925.85. Domestic shares ended with strong gains on Wednesday, 14 August 2019 tracking firmness in other Asian markets after the US announced a delay in the implementation of tariffs on some Chinese goods. The Nifty closed a tad above 11,000-mark. The Sensex rose 353.37 points or 0.96% to settle at 37,311.53. The Nifty 50 index rose 103.55 points or 0.95% to settle at 11,029.40. The equity market were shut on Thursday, 15 August 2019, on account of Independence Day. On the macro front, the quick estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2011-12 showed that India's industrial output grew 2% in June. The data was released by the government after market hours on 9 August 2019. Inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) for July 2019 will be unveiled on 13 August 2019. India's retail price inflation rate rose to 3.18% year-on-year in June 2019, the highest since last October, from 3.05% in the previous month. India's wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation dipped to a 25- month low of 1.1% in July 2019 from 2.0% in June 2019. The all-India general consumer price index (CPI) inflation was steady at 3.15% in July 2019, compared with 3.18% in June 2019. Technical View Nifty Outlook (11048) Bank Nifty Outlook (28217 ) USDINR Outlook ( 71.20 ) EURINR Outlook ( 78.96 ) Dollar Index Outlook ( 98 ) Indian equity markets remained resilient, recovering early losses in the closing part of the trade. During the last week Nifty has made a low of 10901 and given bounce up to around 11078. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 10920 and 10730 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 11190 to 11320 for next week. During the last week Nifty has made a low of 27683 and given a bounce from this level up to 28251. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 27900 to 27500 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 28570 to 28750 and 28930 for next week. During the last week USDINR has made a high of 71.54 and given a small correction up to 70.93. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 70.90 and 70.20 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 71.50 and 71.90 for next week. During the last week EURINR has made a high of 80.30 and given a sharp correction from this level up to 78.87 and closed below 200 DEMA of 79.20. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 78.50 and 77.50 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 79.30 and 79.90 for next week. During the last week DX has given a rally from 97.10 to 98.20 and closed above 20 DEMA of 97.50. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 97.50 and 96.90 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 98.50 and 99.50 for next week.. The Bank Nifty index outperformed the benchmark index by 1% as broad-based buying was seen in both Private and Public sector banks. Weekly Newsletter | 18 Aug - 24 Aug, 2019 th th Market Outlook Cash Market Data Market Indicator Primary Mkt. Updates Pivot Levels Next Week Events Technical Recommendations Index Particulars Nifty Sensex 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low 12103.05 10004.55 11047.80 40312.07 33291.58 37350.33 Close nitial ublic ffering I P O Equities Commodities Demat IPOs Research Mutual Funds Currencies Training Algorithmic Trading Mobile Trading Wealth Management India's merchandise exports increased 2.2% to $26.33 billion in July 2019 over a year ago. Meanwhile, merchandise imports dipped 10.4% to US$ 39.76 billion. The trade deficit narrowed 27.9% to $13.43 billion in July 2019 from US$ 18.01 billion in July 2018. This data was announced by government after market hours on Wednesday, 14 August 2019. India's services trade surplus improved 3.4% to $6.79 billion in June 2019 from $6.57 billion in June 2018. As per the data released by the Reserve Bank of India, India's services exports increased 10.0% to $18.55 billion in June 2019 over June 2018. Meanwhile, India's services imports jumped 14.2% to $11.76 billion in June 2019. In Asia, China's industrial output rose 4.8% in July as compared to a year earlier, official data showed. Retail sales growth rose 7.6% in July from a year earlier. On the data front, U.S. industrial output fell 0.2% in July, the second drop in the past four months, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Industrial output is only up 0.5% on a year-on-year basis. Global cues in spotlight Global cues, progress of monsoon, movement of rupee against the dollar, Brent crude oil price movement and investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) and domestic institutional investors (DII) will be closely watched. On the macro front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce the minutes of its Monetary Policy meeting on Wednesday, 21 August 2019. The Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repo rate by 35 basis points to 5.40% during its August meeting. Overseas, Japan's balance of trade data will be released on Monday, 19 August 2019. In United States, the Fed will be in focus next week, with the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicking off on Thursday, 22 August 2019. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is reportedly likely to speak on the second day of the Jackson Hole conference on 23 August 2019. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting minutes will be announced on Wednesday, 21 August 2019, looking for clues to the future pace of rate cuts. The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August will be announced on Thursday, 22 August 2019. WEEK AHEAD USDINR 71.20 0.42 % EURINR 78.96 -0.67 % Currency Update CMP Net Change Currency Week -362.92 2879.63 Month (Aug) -9049.51 11843.66 Institutional Activity (Cr.) FII DII Year (2019) 27279.23 26987.31 - - - - - - Date Price Band Primary Market Update Company
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Market Outlook
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Nifty maintains 11,000 amid volatility
Domestic markets settled with modest losses in truncated trading week.
The Nifty ended above the psychological 11,000 level after falling below
that level during the week. Concerns over economic slowdown, weak
earnings and global trade volatility weighed on investor sentiment.
In the week ended on Friday, 16 August 2019, the Sensex fell 231.58
points or 0.62% to settle at 37,350.33. The Nifty 50 index fell 61.85 points
or 0.56% to settle at 11,047.80.
The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 179.15 points or 1.31% to settle at 13,490.9.
The BSE Small-Cap index fell 114.91 points or 0.90% to settle at
12,584.59.
The markets were closed on Monday, 12 August 2019 on the account of
Bakri Id.
The domestic equity market slumped on Tuesday, 13 August 2019
dragged by auto, telecom and financial stocks. Concerns around protests
in Hong Kong and an Argentine currency crash amid fears of global
economic slowdown, sapped investors risk appetite. The Sensex
crashed 623.75 points or 1.66% to settle at 36,958.16. The Nifty 50 index
slumped 183.80 points or 1.65% to settle at 10,925.85.
Domestic shares ended with strong gains on Wednesday, 14 August 2019
tracking firmness in other Asian markets after the US announced a delay
in the implementation of tariffs on some Chinese goods. The Nifty
closed a tad above 11,000-mark. The Sensex rose 353.37 points or 0.96%
to settle at 37,311.53. The Nifty 50 index rose 103.55 points or 0.95% to
settle at 11,029.40.
The equity market were shut on Thursday, 15 August 2019, on account of
Independence Day.
On the macro front, the quick estimates of Index of Industrial Production
(IIP) with base 2011-12 showed that India's industrial output grew 2% in
June. The data was released by the government after market hours on 9
August 2019.
Inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) for July 2019 will be
unveiled on 13 August 2019. India's retail price inflation rate rose to
3.18% year-on-year in June 2019, the highest since last October, from
3.05% in the previous month.
India's wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation dipped to a 25-
month low of 1.1% in July 2019 from 2.0% in June 2019. The all-India
general consumer price index (CPI) inflation was steady at 3.15% in July
2019, compared with 3.18% in June 2019.
Tech
nic
al
Vie
w
Nifty Outlook (11048)
Bank Nifty Outlook (28217 )
USDINR Outlook ( 71.20 )
EURINR Outlook ( 78.96 )
Dollar Index Outlook ( 98 )
Indian equity markets remained resilient, recovering early losses in the closing part of the trade. During the last week Nifty has made a low of 10901 and given bounce up to around
11078. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 10920 and 10730 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 11190 to 11320 for next week.
During the last week Nifty has made a
low of 27683 and given a bounce from this level up to 28251. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 27900 to 27500 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 28570 to 28750 and
28930 for next week.
During the last week USDINR has made a high of 71.54 and given a small correction up to 70.93. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 70.90 and 70.20 for next week. Its
resistance is likely to be seen around 71.50 and 71.90 for next week.
During the last week EURINR has made a high of 80.30 and given a sharp correction from this level up to 78.87 and closed below 200 DEMA of 79.20. Its immediate support is likely to
be seen around 78.50 and 77.50 for next week. Its resistance is likely to be seen around 79.30 and 79.90 for next week.
During the last week DX has given a rally from 97.10 to 98.20 and closed above 20 DEMA of 97.50. Its immediate support is likely to be seen around 97.50 and 96.90 for next week. Its
resistance is likely to be seen around 98.50 and 99.50 for next week..
The Bank Nifty index outperformed the benchmark index by 1% as broad-based buying was seen in both Private and Public sector banks.
Weekly Newsletter | 18 Aug - 24 Aug, 2019th th
Market Outlook
Cash Market Data
Market Indicator
Primary Mkt. Updates
Pivot Levels
Next Week Events
Technical Recommendations
Index
Particulars Nifty Sensex
52 Wk High
52 Wk Low
12103.05
10004.55
11047.80
40312.07
33291.58
37350.33Close
nitialublicffering
IPO
Equities Commodities Demat IPOs ResearchMutual
Funds
Currencies Training Algorithmic
TradingMobile
Trading
Wealth
Management
India's merchandise exports increased 2.2% to $26.33 billion in July 2019
over a year ago. Meanwhile, merchandise imports dipped 10.4% to US$
39.76 billion. The trade deficit narrowed 27.9% to $13.43 billion in July
2019 from US$ 18.01 billion in July 2018. This data was announced by
government after market hours on Wednesday, 14 August 2019.
India's services trade surplus improved 3.4% to $6.79 billion in June
2019 from $6.57 billion in June 2018. As per the data released by the
Reserve Bank of India, India's services exports increased 10.0% to
$18.55 billion in June 2019 over June 2018. Meanwhile, India's services
imports jumped 14.2% to $11.76 billion in June 2019.
In Asia, China's industrial output rose 4.8% in July as compared to a year
earlier, official data showed. Retail sales growth rose 7.6% in July from a
year earlier.
On the data front, U.S. industrial output fell 0.2% in July, the second drop
in the past four months, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.
Industrial output is only up 0.5% on a year-on-year basis.
Global cues in spotlight
Global cues, progress of monsoon, movement of rupee against the
dollar, Brent crude oil price movement and investments by foreign
portfolio investors (FPI) and domestic institutional investors (DII) will be
closely watched.
On the macro front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce the
minutes of its Monetary Policy meeting on Wednesday, 21 August 2019.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repo rate by 35 basis
points to 5.40% during its August meeting.
Overseas, Japan's balance of trade data will be released on Monday, 19
August 2019.
In United States, the Fed will be in focus next week, with the central
bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicking off on
Thursday, 22 August 2019. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is reportedly
likely to speak on the second day of the Jackson Hole conference on 23
August 2019.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting minutes will
be announced on Wednesday, 21 August 2019, looking for clues to the
future pace of rate cuts.
The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August will be announced on
This Document has been prepared by Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd., for use by the recipient only and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained in the document
have been complied from sources believed to be reliable. Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd., does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.This report is for your guidance
only. Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd. Or any of its director/employee/signatories or any other person will not be responsible for any trade done based on the report mentioned above.
Tradeswift Broking Pvt. Ltd has no personal trading interest in any of the scrips detailed above. Trading in commodities is facilitated through associate companies : Tradeswift
Commodities Private Limited (NCDEX) and Tradeswift Derivatives Private Limited (MCX)
Commodity MonthLTP as on
16.08.2019Strategy Target S/L Technical Comments
Chana Sep 4309
Sell on rise and
buy near
support levels
4330/4390 (Res.)4290/4250
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 200 DEMA of
4330. Traders can sell on rise with near Sl of 4350. Closes above this
level it can go up to around 4370 to 4390. It can also correct from
these levels. It can also bounce from support levels.
Guar Gum Sep 8637
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
8830 /8990 (Res.)8550/8470
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
8601. Traders can buy on declines with SL 8550 or 8470. Closes below
these levels it can correct up to around 8250. It can also bounce from
these levels. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Guar Seed M Sep 4445Buy on
declines4520/4630 (Res.)
4370/4320
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMA
of 4335. Traders can buy on declines with SL 4320. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 4250 to 4220. It can also bounce
from this level. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Jeera Sep 16850
Sell on rise and
buy near
support levels
17600/17950
(Res.)
16550/15750
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 200 DEMA of
17375. Traders can sell on bounce near resistance levels with SL
17200. Closes above this level it can go up to around 17350 to 17500.
It can also correct from this level. Near support levels it can give
some bounce.
Agri Commodities
Soyabean Sep 3639
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
3710/3750 (Res.) 3610/3550
(Sup.)
It is facing a trend line resistance of 3700 and made a lower top
formation . Traders can sell on rise with SL 3710. Closes above this
level it can go up to around 3750 to 3770. It can also correct from
these levels. It can also bounce from support levels.
RMSeed Sep 3961
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
3990/4030 (Res.)3930/3890
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMA
of 3945. Traders can buy on declines with SL 3930. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 3890 to 3850. It can also bounce
from these levels. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Soya Oil Ref. Sep 757
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
760/767 (Res.)747/740
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
741. Traders can buy on declines with SL 747. Closes below this level
it can correct up to around 740 to 737. It can also bounce from these
levels. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Cocud(N) Sep 3134
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
3170/3250 (Res.)3050/2920
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
3050. Traders can buy on declines with SL 3050. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 2920. It can also bounce from these
levels. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Dhania Sep 5924 Sell on rise 6350/6630 (Res.)5770/5630
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of
6325. Traders can sell on rise with near Sl of 6350. Closes above this
level it can go up to around 6550 to 6590. It can also correct from
these levels. It can also bounce from support levels.
TMC Sep 7076
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
7250/7430
(Res.)
6850/6730
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMA
of 6850. Traders can buy on declines with SL 6850. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 6730 to 6650. It can also bounce
from this level. Near resistance levels it can give some correction.
Mentha oil (MCX) Aug 1324
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
1360/1390 (Res.)1295/1275
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
1285. Traders can buy on declines with SL 1295. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 1285 to 1275. It can also bounce
from this level. It can also correct from resistance levels.
CPO (MCX) Aug 549
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
560/570 (Res.)510/507
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMA
of 534. Traders can buy on declines with SL 540. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 530 to 525. It can also bounce from
these levels.
Cardamom Sep 3443
Buy around
sup. Level and
sell around res.
Level
3590/3750 (Res.)3410/3070
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation but closed above 20 DEMA of
3070. Traders can buy on declines with SL 3400.Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 3070. It can also bounce from this
level. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Commodity MonthLTP as on
16.08.2019Strategy Resistance Support Technical Comments
Gold Oct. 37938
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
38350/
38500/38650/
38950 (Res.)
37450/
36550
(Sup.)
Gold has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
36550. Traders can buy on declines with SL 37450. Closes below this level
it can correct up to around 36550. It can also bounce from this level. Near
resistance levels it can give some correction.
Silver Sep 43824
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
44500/45200
(Res.)
43200/
42150
(Sup.)
Silver has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 20 DEMA of
42150. Traders can buy on declines with SL 43100. Closes below this level
it can correct up to around 42150 to 42100. It can also bounce from this
level. Near resistance levels it can give some correction.
Copper Aug 446
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
450/455 (Res.)443/439
(Sup.)
Copper has made a higher bottom formation and closed above 200 DEMA
of 443.50. Traders can buy on declines with SL 443. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 439 to 437. It can also bounce from this
level. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Aluminum Aug 141
Sell on rise and
buy near
support levels
143/145 (Res.)139/137
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 200 DEMA of 142.50.
Traders can sell on rise with SL 143. Closes above this level it can go up to
around 145. It can also correct from this level. It can also bounce from
support levels.
Non - Agri Commodities
Lead Aug 153.25
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
155/157 (Res.)151/149
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of 154.50.
Traders can sell on bounce with SL 155.50. Closes above this level it can
go up to around 157 to 159. It can also correct from these levels. It can
also bounce from support levels.
Zinc Aug 183.5
Sell on rise and
buy near
support levels
187/190 (Res.) 179/177
(Sup.)
It has made a lower top formation and closed below 20 DEMA of 188.
Traders can sell on rise with SL 186. Closes above this level it can go up to
around 189 to 190. It can also correct from these levels. Near support
levels it can give some bounce.
Nickel Aug 1139
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
1150/1160
(Res.)
1105/1060
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closes above 20 DEMA of
1060. Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 1095. Closes below this
level it can correct up to around 1060 to 1050. It can also bounce from
these levels. It can also correct from resistance levels.
Crude Oil Sep 3910
Sell on rise and
buy near
support levels
3990/4050/4090
(Res.)
3850/3770
(Sup.)
Crude oil has made a lower top formation and closed below 200 DEMA of
4090. Traders can sell on bounce near resistance levels and consider near
resistance levels as SL. Near support levels it can give some bounce.
Natural Gas Aug 156.3
Buy around
support level
and sell near
resistance
levels
160/170 (Res.)151/147
(Sup.)
It has made a higher bottom formation and closes above 20 DEMA of 153.
Traders can buy on declines with near SL of 151. Closes below this level it
can correct up to around 147 to 145. It can also bounce from these levels.