Market insight By John N. Cotzias SnP Broker Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very posive momentum and has connued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks. The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this me last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil producon in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectaon is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth nong that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for stor- age mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish senment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly soſtening over the past month, but the average spot rate is sll holding above $25,000/day, with stable acvity expected in the short to medium term as well. Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s aver- age spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s prod- uct tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn ulized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a compeve alternave to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ulmately led to strong Asian naphtha imports. Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transacons on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The exisng tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same me, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners praccally no incenve to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age. According to Internaonal Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, in- creased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous esmates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same me, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a lile below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil con- sumpon doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014. So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with poten- al of further upside very possible . Chartering (Wet: Firm + / Dry: Stable + ) The BDI improved last week, exclusively supported by Capesize perfor- mance, while the rest of the market displayed no significant improve- ment in senment. The BDI closed today (19/05/2015) at 620 points, down by 10 points compared to Monday’s levels (18/05/2015) and an increase of 31 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (12/05/2015). Strong demand and robust acvity in the Middle East gave a strong push to the crude carriers market last week. The BDTI Monday (18/05/2015) was at 846 points, an increase of 100 points and the BCTI at 646, an increase of 25 points compared to previous Mon- day’s (11/05/2015) levels. Sale & Purchase (Wet: Stable - / Dry: Stable - ) SnP acvity with regards to both dry bulkers and tankers slowed down this week, while the number of post 2000 built container vessels sales was remarkable. On the tanker side, we had the sale of the “IVER EX- PERT” (45,809dwt-blt 97, S.Korea), which was sold to Sinochem for $8.5m. On the dry bulker side we had the sale of the “JIANG JUN SHAN” (176,924dwt-blt 06, Japan), which was reported being sold to Winning Shipping for a price of $18.1m . Newbuilding (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Soſt - ) “One of the same” could very well be the tle for last week’s newbuild- ing market, with tanker orders sll having the lion’s share among those limited orders being reported across the market and dry bulk prices connuing to move south and closer to the 2012 lows. As long as dry bulk second-hand prices keep failing to note a significant upward correc- on, we expect more downside on the newbuilding side as well, while the trend of converng previous Capesize orders to tanker ones seems that is sll holding well, with more similar conversions coming to light recently. Such deals underline the extent of the lack of faith in the seg- ment by owners who just a lile while ago saw potenal in Capes but currently seem unable to find anything posive in concluding such or- ders, despite the fact that a significant amount of deadweight has been already removed by the market and more is expected to do so in the coming months. In terms of recently reported deals, German owner, Blumenthal, converted a Capesize order to one firm plus one oponal Suezmax (160,000dwt) at Hyundai Samho, in S. Korea, for a price of $67.0 each and delivery set in 2017. Demolion (Wet: Soſt - / Dry: Soſt - ) The fact that demo prices extended their fall last week hardly took any- one by surprise as market senment has been persistently dictang for further downside since the beginning of the month. The downward trend seems to have ulmately taken its toll on acvity as well, which came in overwhelmingly lower than what we have been used to lately, while the lack of demo sales involving Capesize tonnage certainly didn’t go unnoced as the big bulkers have been regularly popping up in re- ported demo sales since the beginning of the year. We see the market stabilizing around current levels for a couple of weeks, while if no im- portant upside is noted on prices, we expect the upcoming monsoon season to almost certainly weigh down further on acvity. Saying that, we sll believe that this summer will be busier compared to the 2014 one, while despite the momentary stall in demo sales of big bulkers, we expect the trend to resume for as long as earning remain close to or just above OPEX levels. Prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 225-400 $/ldt and dry units received about 210-380 $/ldt. Weekly Market Report Issue: Week 20 | Tuesday 19 th May 2015
9
Embed
Weekly Market Report - Maritime-Connectormaritime-connector.com/documents/Intermodal Weekly... · mance, while the rest of the market displayed no significant improve-ment in sentiment.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Market insight By John N. Cotzias SnP Broker
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for stor-age mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s aver-age spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s prod-uct tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, in-creased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil con-sumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with poten-tial of further upside very possible .
Chartering (Wet: Firm + / Dry: Stable + )
The BDI improved last week, exclusively supported by Capesize perfor-mance, while the rest of the market displayed no significant improve-ment in sentiment. The BDI closed today (19/05/2015) at 620 points, down by 10 points compared to Monday’s levels (18/05/2015) and an increase of 31 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (12/05/2015). Strong demand and robust activity in the Middle East gave a strong push to the crude carriers market last week. The BDTI Monday (18/05/2015) was at 846 points, an increase of 100 points and the BCTI at 646, an increase of 25 points compared to previous Mon-day’s (11/05/2015) levels.
Sale & Purchase (Wet: Stable - / Dry: Stable - )
SnP activity with regards to both dry bulkers and tankers slowed down this week, while the number of post 2000 built container vessels sales was remarkable. On the tanker side, we had the sale of the “IVER EX-PERT” (45,809dwt-blt 97, S.Korea), which was sold to Sinochem for $8.5m. On the dry bulker side we had the sale of the “JIANG JUN SHAN” (176,924dwt-blt 06, Japan), which was reported being sold to Winning Shipping for a price of $18.1m .
Newbuilding (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Soft - )
“One of the same” could very well be the title for last week’s newbuild-ing market, with tanker orders still having the lion’s share among those limited orders being reported across the market and dry bulk prices continuing to move south and closer to the 2012 lows. As long as dry bulk second-hand prices keep failing to note a significant upward correc-tion, we expect more downside on the newbuilding side as well, while the trend of converting previous Capesize orders to tanker ones seems that is still holding well, with more similar conversions coming to light recently. Such deals underline the extent of the lack of faith in the seg-ment by owners who just a little while ago saw potential in Capes but currently seem unable to find anything positive in concluding such or-ders, despite the fact that a significant amount of deadweight has been already removed by the market and more is expected to do so in the coming months. In terms of recently reported deals, German owner, Blumenthal, converted a Capesize order to one firm plus one optional Suezmax (160,000dwt) at Hyundai Samho, in S. Korea, for a price of $67.0 each and delivery set in 2017.
Demolition (Wet: Soft - / Dry: Soft - )
The fact that demo prices extended their fall last week hardly took any-one by surprise as market sentiment has been persistently dictating for further downside since the beginning of the month. The downward trend seems to have ultimately taken its toll on activity as well, which came in overwhelmingly lower than what we have been used to lately, while the lack of demo sales involving Capesize tonnage certainly didn’t go unnoticed as the big bulkers have been regularly popping up in re-ported demo sales since the beginning of the year. We see the market stabilizing around current levels for a couple of weeks, while if no im-portant upside is noted on prices, we expect the upcoming monsoon season to almost certainly weigh down further on activity. Saying that, we still believe that this summer will be busier compared to the 2014 one, while despite the momentary stall in demo sales of big bulkers, we expect the trend to resume for as long as earning remain close to or just above OPEX levels. Prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 225-400 $/ldt and dry units received about 210-380 $/ldt.
What a great week that was for the crude carriers market that saw rates for most routes noting significant upside amidst strong activity in both the Mid-dle East and W. Africa regions. Significant amount of fresh business com-bined with balanced supply of tonnage all around, allowed owners to quick-ly get the upper hand and push for more, as charterers appeared more than keen to move into June dates amidst a strengthening market that continues to enjoy strong momentum that could soon be translating into even higher returns.
The VL market closed off the week noting exceptional gains on the back of impressive activity in the Middle East, while this notable increase of enquiry is shaping high expectations for next month as well, with market talk in-sisting on a very promising begging of the summer period in terms of de-mand.
The W. Africa Suezmax market witnessed improved activity for a second time in a row, but this time round tonnage supply was clearly in favour of owners ballasting in the region, who saw rates surging to TCE levels last witnessed back in the beginning of March.
Rates for Aframaxes displayed a mixed picture last week, with the cross-Med Afra remaining under pressure, while the Caribs Afra remained on an upward trend amidst strengthening enquiry in the region.
Sale & Purchase
In the LR1 sector we had the en-bloc resale of the “STX JINHAE 1657” (73,800dwt-blt 16, S. Korea), the “STX JINHAE 1652” (73,800dwt-blt 15, S. Korea), “STX JINHAE 1658” (73,800dwt-blt 16, S. Korea) and “STX JINHAE 1651” (73,800dwt-blt 15, S. Korea), which were sold to Greek owner Prime Marine for a price in the region of $53.5m each.
In the MR sector we had the sale of the “IVER EXPERT” (45,809dwt-blt 97, S. Korea), which was sold to Sinochem for $8.5m .
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on
the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest of the segments
moved sideways, denying the sector even the slightest change in senti-
ment. Despite the jump in Cape rates, the market remains under pressure
with average T/C rates for all sizes segments faring below $7,000/day and
barely covering OPEX in the best of cases. At the same time it is very worry-
ing to note that even amidst what are considered “hot” seasons for regions
in the likes of ECSA, the market has been unable to advance, with further
fears emerging if one tries to assess what is due to happen once things slow
down further.
Rates for Capes were for a second week in a row the only substantial posi-
tive exception in an otherwise uninspiring market, with activity in both
basins reviving significantly and reports signalling the return of majors in
the Pacific. Sentiment nonetheless has not improved much from the week
prior and given the lows rates have been hovering around, current levels
can hardly allow for big hopes to built up. The following days are set to
offer a better idea as to how meaningful this recent upside could be.
The Atlantic Panamax market started to improve slowly following holidays
in a number of European countries, while the Pacific Panamax was still
moving sideways as the market slid into the weekend.
Rates for the geared sizes slightly improved in the Pacific following a fairly
quiet first half of the month in the region, while improved rates were also
being achieved out of Continent with Atlantic business remaining overall
stable.
Sale & Purchase
In the Capesize sector, we had the sale of the “JIANG JUN SHAN” (176,924dwt-blt 06, Japan), which was reported being sold to Winning Ship-ping for a price of $18.1m.
In the Handymax sector we had the sale of the “AGIA” (45,296dwt-blt 94, Japan), which was sold to Chinese buyers for a price in the region of $3.5m .
“One of the same” could very well be the title for last week’s newbuilding market, with tanker orders still having the lion’s share among those limited orders being reported across the market and dry bulk prices continuing to move south and closer to the 2012 lows. As long as dry bulk second-hand prices keep failing to note a significant upward correction, we expect more downside on the newbuilding side as well, while the trend of converting previous Capesize orders to tanker ones seems that is still holding well, with more similar conversions coming to light recently. Such deals underline the extent of the lack of faith in the segment by owners who just a little while ago saw potential in Capes but currently seem unable to find anything posi-tive in concluding such orders, despite the fact that a significant amount of deadweight has been already removed by the market and more is expected to do so in the coming months.
In terms of recently reported deals, German owner, Blumenthal, converted a Capesize order to one firm plus one optional Suezmax (160,000dwt) at Hyun-dai Samho, in S. Korea, for a price of $67.0 each and delivery set in 2017.
Newbuilding Market
20
60
100
140
180
mil
lion
$
Tankers Newbuilding Prices (m$)
VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR
Week
20
Week
19±% 2014 2013 2012
Capesize 180k 50.5 51.0 -1.0% 55.8 49 47
Kamsarmax 82k 27.5 28.0 -1.8% 30.4 27 28
Panamax 77k 26.5 27.5 -3.6% 29.2 26 27
Ultramax 63k 25.5 25.5 0.0% 27 25 25
Handysize 38k 21.5 21.5 0.0% 23 21 22
VLCC 300k 96.5 96.5 0.0% 98.6 91 96
Suezmax 160k 65.0 65.0 0.0% 65 56 58
Aframax 115k 53.5 53.5 0.0% 54 48 50
LR1 75k 46.0 46.0 0.0% 45.9 41 42
MR 50k 36.5 36.5 0.0% 36.9 34 34
190.0 190.0 0.0% 186.0 185 186
77.0 77.0 0.0% 78.4 71 71
68.0 68.0 0.0% 66.9 63 62
46.0 46.0 0.0% 44.3 41 44
Vessel
Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$)
Bu
lke
rsTa
nke
rs
LNG 160k cbm
LGC LPG 80k cbm
MGC LPG 55k cbm
SGC LPG 25k cbm
Gas
10
30
50
70
90
110
mil
lion
$
Bulk Carriers Newbuilding Prices (m$)
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize
Units Type Yard Delivery Buyer Price Comments
1+1 Tanker 160,000 dwtHyundai Samho, S.
Korea2017 German ( Blumenthal) $ 67.0m
Capes ize order
convers ion
2 Tanker 156,000 dwt DSME, S. Korea 2017 Greek (Maran Tankers) undisclosed 4 Suezmaxes + 6 VLs
The fact that demo prices extended their fall last week hardly took anyone by surprise as market sentiment has been persistently dictating for further downside since the beginning of the month. The downward trend seems to have ultimately taken its toll on activity as well, which came in overwhelm-ingly lower than what we have been used to lately, while the lack of demo sales involving Capesize tonnage certainly didn’t go unnoticed as the big bulkers have been regularly popping up in reported demo sales since the beginning of the year. We see the market stabilizing around current levels for a couple of weeks, while if no important upside is noted on prices, we expect the upcoming monsoon season to almost certainly weigh down further on activity. Saying that, we still believe that this summer will be busier com-pared to the 2014 one, while despite the momentary stall in demo sales of big bulkers, we expect the trend to resume for as long as earning remain close to or just above OPEX levels. Prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 225-400 $/ldt and dry units received about 210-380 $/ldt.
The highest price amongst recently reported deals, was that paid by Indian breakers for the General Cargo vessel “OMOLON” (7,075dwt-4,174ldt-blt 87), which received $364/ldt .
Demolition Market
Week
20
Week
19±% 2014 2013 2012
Bangladesh 390 395 -1.3% 469 422 441
India 390 395 -1.3% 478 426 445
Pakistan 400 405 -1.2% 471 423 444
China 225 225 0.0% 313 365 384
Bangladesh 380 385 -1.3% 451 402 415
India 380 385 -1.3% 459 405 419
Pakistan 380 385 -1.3% 449 401 416
China 210 210 0.0% 297 350 365
Dry
Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt)
Markets
We
t
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
$/l
dt
Wet Demolition Prices
Bangladesh India Pakistan China
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
$/ld
t
Dry Demolition Prices
Bangladesh India Pakistan China
Name Size Ldt Built Yard Type $/ldt Breakers Comments
AMADEO 39,350 11,509 1996 GALATI, Romania TANKER $ 281/Ldt undisclosed as-is Argentina, incl. 290T ROB
OMOLON 7,075 4,174 1987LENINA STOCZNIA
GDANSK, PolandGC $ 364/Ldt Indian
Demolition Sales
The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without mak-ing guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Angeliki Frangou has seen her stake in US-listed Navios Maritime Holdings rise to 26.3%, according to a securities filing today.
The chief executive of the Piraeus-headquartered shipowner reported a holding of 29 million shares and vested or soon-to-vest options. The stake is worth $106m at today’s price on the New York Stock Exchange.
A year ago, she told the US Securities & Exchange commission that she controlled 27.7 million shares and vested options, or 25.9% of the company.
The upsized figure reported today includes 3.08 mil-lion vested options to purchase shares and another 208,000 that vest within the next 60 days.
Not included are 1.29 million unvested options, which would lift Frangou’s stake to 27.2%.
As of its last quarterly report, Navios controlled a fleet of 40 owned and 24 chartered-in bulkers and newbuildings.
The company also has a controlling stake in Navios South American Logistics, bulker and containership owner Navios Maritime Partners and tanker owner Navios Maritime Acquisition.” (Eric Martin, Trade Winds)