Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity · Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity §PID and issue voting are fundamentals/baseline for an election §Candidates know baseline and

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Markus Prior Political Science 177a

Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity

§ PID and issue voting are fundamentals/baseline for

an election

§ Candidates know baseline and want to win

§ Candidates act strategically

§ Strategy is constrained by electoral setting

⇒ Setting & Strategy condition voting behavior


Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity

§ Fundamentals

§ Setting

⇒ How much campaign do we see?

§ Strategy

⇒ Which states?

⇒ What type of ads?

⇒ What position?

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Electoral Setting

§ “The Vote”…? — Which vote are we talking about?⇒ One presidential election or many?⇒ 435 House elections⇒ ~33 Senate elections⇒ gubernatorial elections⇒ local elections


Electoral Setting

§ Geographic Differencese.g., size of state/district

§ Demographic Differencese.g., racial diversity

§ Political Differencese.g., party balance

§ Differences in the Information Environmente.g., media markets

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Electoral Setting

§ Gronke⇒ considerable difference across districts and

states on many demographic variables⇒ but on average, states are more

heterogeneous than districts§ For us, main point is enormous diversity in

campaign settings§ Later: What are the consequences of this

diversity for voting behavior?


Electoral Setting: Racial Diversity

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Electoral Setting: Educational Diversity


Electoral Setting: Population Density

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Electoral Setting: Partisan Balance

Strategy…?


Electoral Setting: Partisan Competitiveness

Strategy…?

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Electoral Setting

§ How much campaign do we see?⇒ Answer #1:

not much in uncompetitive districts


Electoral Setting: Media Environment

§ Goal:Reach as many of your potential voters as cheaply as possible without wasting money on those who can’t vote for you anyway§ Media Market:

All counties that receive 50% or more of their TV signals from the same stations

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Nielsen Media Markets, 2001-2

0.0043,900Glendive, MT2100.01415,260North Platte, NE2090.01617,290Alpena, MI2080.02323,730Helena, MT207

0.02323,990Juneau, AK206…

2.3012,426,010San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose52.6562,801,010Philadelphia, PA43.1873,360,770Chicago, IL35.0305,303,490Los Angeles, CA2

6.9247,301,060New York, NY1all TV HH

# TV HouseholdsMedia MarketRank



Measuring the media environment§ 1. Media market dominance

⇒How many media markets does the district have?

⇒e.g., most districts are dominated by one market, but Wyoming’s only district has SIX different markets

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Measuring the media environment§ 2. Media market contiguity/congruence

⇒Fit between district and media market:How much of the market is in the district?How much of the district is in the market?

⇒e.g., districts in big cities (NYC, LA) are completely within one market, but make up only a small part of that market

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Measuring the media environment§ 3. Advertising cost per capita

⇒If you want to reach the entire district population with a commercial during the six o’clock news, what is the cost per voter in the district?

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§ Reaching voters is more difficult in some districts than others§ Applies to paid advertising as well as free

news coverage§ Prinz:

What are the consequences for candidate awareness (which has a powerful impact on vote decisions in House elections)?

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§ Measures of candidate awareness used by Prinz⇒has respondent been contacted by

candidate?⇒has respondent seen candidate on TV?⇒name recognition (incumbent/challenger)



§ Prinz’s results⇒Candidate contact, TV visibility, and

recognition are all higher in congruent districts (for both incumbent and challenger)

⇒Challengers tend to benefit more from congruent districts, reducing the incumbent advantage in awareness

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Candidate Strategy: Presidential Elections

§ House elections (Prinz)⇒Some media environments disadvantage

challengers because they lack sufficient funds

⇒Result: One-sided campaign§ Presidential elections

⇒Challenger funding not a problem⇒But… any ads in state of New York?



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Top 75 Media Markets only (80% of U.S. population)Source: Brennan Center for Justice 2000 Study



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Electoral Setting & Strategy

§ How much campaign do we see?⇒ Answer #1:

not much in uncompetitive districts⇒ Answer #2:

depends on your media market⇒ Answer #3:

depends on strategy

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Strategy

§ Presidential Elections⇒ Which states should a campaign contest?⇒ Shaw reading

§ Congressional Elections⇒ Which states/districts attract viable (high quality,

well-funded) challengers?⇒ Gronke, ch.5: “candidate emergence”

§ Campaigns are the dependent variable this week



§ Shaw examines electoral college strategies⇒Each state has one electoral college vote for

each Senate and House seat⇒Total: 535 votes, need 268 to win⇒Setting is “simultaneous, multistate,

weighted, winner-take-all”

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§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?⇒Internal or published records of strategies

at the start of the fall campaign (Sept.)§ Can we identify the factors used to derive

these strategies?⇒What’s special about the states that end up

being battleground states?§ Do campaigns follow their strategy?

⇒Are actual visits and advertising volume in fall campaign predicted by September strategies?



§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?

Both campaigns’ agree strongly on classification of states

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§ Do presidential campaigns have strategies?

Base Democratic:9 states, 134 electoral votes

Marginal Democratic:9 states, 102 electoral votes



§ Can we identify the factors used to derive these strategies? Dependent variable:

Likelihood of being battleground state

Cheap ads – more likely to be battleground

Many electoral votes – more likely to be battleground

BUT ONLY if the state has been competitive in the past

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§ Do campaigns follow their strategy?



§ Only their strategy…?

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§ More than winning plurality of electoral votes⇒ gaining electoral mandate

(more states than necessary, popular vote)⇒ affecting composition of Congress

(helping in close congressional races)


§ How do different settings (media markets, demographic diversity, partisan balance) affect challenger quality and spending?⇒High-quality challengers lead to more

intense campaigns(because only high-quality challengers have a chance to unseat an incumbent)

⇒Candidate spending leads to more intense campaigns

Candidate Strategy: Congressional Elections

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What determines challenger quality?



What determines incumbent spending?

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Strategy: Summary

§ Electoral setting affects candidate strategy, how much campaign we see§ Hardly any campaigning in some

states/districts⇒Fundamentals (PID, maybe issues) are all

that voters have⇒Plus incumbency factors in House elections

§ Intense campaigns in other states/districts⇒Do ads and news affect vote decisions?⇒Fundamentals less important?

Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity · Week 3 & 4: Setting, Strategy, Intensity §PID and issue voting are fundamentals/baseline for an election §Candidates know baseline and

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