Webinar: Transmilenio Bogotá: Evolution and challenges for the future

Transmilenio Bogotá – Evolution and

challenges for the future

Juan Pablo Bocarejo, PhD Associate professor Universidad de Los Andes

SUR Grupo de Estudios En Sostenibilidad

Urbana y Regional 1

1. Transmilenio basics

2. Where should we be

3. Challenges

4. Research onTransmilenio

Agenda

2

1. Basics

3

1. Basics

4

Characteristics PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

Corridors 3 3 4

Length of segregated lanes (Km) 42,4 42,3 31,6

Number of stations 57 52 35

Number of terminals 4 3 3

Number of feeder zones 7 5 3

Length of feeders lanes (Km) 346 100 --

1. Basics

5

609

749

1.001

1.071 1.076 1.135

1.254 1.290

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Articulated bus fleet

336 275

388 398 427

513 517 518

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Feeder buses fleet

1. Basics

6

0,43

0,74 0,81

0,97

1,07

1,24

1,34

1,47

1,58

1,66 1,73

0,12

0,35 0,41

0,47 0,53

0,61 0,62

0,75 0,79

0,84 0,87

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

2,00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pas

sen

gers

(m

illio

ns)

Passengers per day in the system

Segregated Lanes Feeder Lanes

4,6

4,1 4,1

3,3

3,7 3,6 3,4

3,2 3

2,8 3

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sco

re

Perception score of the system

1. Basics

7

Insufficient space

Blocking

access/exit

Open doors – risk of

accidents

Poor signaling

Poor information

Too

successful?

Institutional

stability

Financial

restrictions?

Delayed

expansion?

1. Basics

8

568

491

675

534

621

419 439

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Acc

ide

nts

in t

he

sys

tem

1.3% 1.4%

1.9%

1.4% 1.7%

1,3% 1,3%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Proportion of the total number of accidents/incidents

11

2

5 5 6 6

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

De

ath

s in

th

e s

yste

m

Year

652

514 544 592 617

763 760

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Inju

red

in t

he

sys

tem

Year

Accident Reduction B/A Transmilenio Av. Caracas: 60% AV. NQS: 48%

2. Where should we be?

9

22 corridors of BRT in 15 years?

2. Where should we be?

10

Metro + BRT + LRT?

3. Challenges

11

• Improve the existing system

• Equity – Accessibility issues

• SITP

• Rail technologies

3. Challenges

12

• Improve the existing system

– Operational optimization

– Simplify

– Fare collection system

– Use information

3. Challenges

• Equity - Accessibility

13

3. Challenges

• An integrated system including Transmilenio network (28% share) and buses in mixed traffic (72%)

• A centralized regulation (Transmilenio S.A)

• Contracts with strong bus companies

• Integrated fare system

• ITS for operation optimization

• Investment in terminals

• A mixed retribution system to operators

SITP

14

3. Challenges

• Operation concessions awarded to 9 companies

• Technology concession awarded

• Gradual and “calm” Implementation

• Institutional strengthening

• Financing and investments by private companies

SITP

15

3. Challenges

16

• SITP

– The devil

“Transantiago”

• Opposite to TS

– Not a radical change in route design

– No big bang.. A “gradual” change …

too gradual

– A “strong” institution

• Some common mistakes

– No infrastructure

– Drastic reduction of fleet

– Pressure on mass transit system

• Some original mistakes

– A 24 year concession

– High cost of indemnity

– Pressure on Transmilenio

3. Challenges

• The heart of the Air Quality Improvement

Policy

Change in emissions- PM2,5

17

Exposure WITHOUT SITP: 101 ug/m3.h

79% reduction

Cra 7a

Exposure SITP: 21 ug/m3.h

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

En Vehículo En el andén

Concentración (ug/m3) Tiempo (min) Exposición (ug/m3.h)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

En Vehículo En el andén

Concentración Tiempo (min) Exposición en espera

E2: 92 ug/m3.h E1: 9 ug/m3.h E2: 15 ug/m3.h E1: 6 ug/m3.h

3. Challenges

3. Challenges

19

• Rail

– A 25 km metro line, carrying 7% of

public transport demand

– Lower demand than Transmilenio

– A LRT network of 60 km?

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and density

We showed that Transmilenio was a significant variable influencing density growth

We showed that free market and not land regulation lead changes in Bogota

An unsettling question on housing quality and tradeoffs

20

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and accessibility

We proposed a way to evaluate equity issues trough calculation of accessibility to employment

We showed that low income population had a better accessibility with a subsidy policy than with Transmilenio Phase 3

We showed that the effort of all social classes to access employment was much higher than the willingness to spend time and money

21

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and road safety We used GIS tools to analyze the changes in accident patterns before and after Transmilenio

Critical links changed drastically after Transmilenio, but remained similar afterwards

We could not find a relationship between critical accidents and station attendance

BRT on high speed roads produced different patterns and higher hot spots than in signalized corridors.

22

Impact of Bus Rapid Transit Systems on Road Safety Lessons from Bogota, Colombia Juan Pablo Bocarejo, Juan Miguel Velasquez, Claudia Andrea Diaz, and Luis Eduardo Tafur Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2317, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2012, pp. 1–7.

DOI: 10.3141/2317-01

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and congestion

We calculated the social cost of congestion in Transmilenio to be US$ 7000 in peak hour

We showed that to obtain an optimal situation, bus occupancy should be 5,4 pas/m2 and not 6,3 pas/m2 according to a SPS.

We proposed a way to calculate an investment in comfort that would eliminate the congestion cost.

23

Congestion cost in mass transit systems Case Study Bogota´s BRT Guerra G., Bocarejo JP

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and road safety We showed that including stochasticity and randomness using a micro-simulation tool the estimation of the BRT capacity changed

The micro-simulation showed that the sum of stop points capacities in a station is different to the capacity of the simultaneous operation

Capacity of a system with express routes is not the sum of the individual capacity. Depending of the number of express buses, capacity curve will vary

24

TRANSMILENIO BRT CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING A MICRO-SIMULATION MODEL IN VISSIM ORTIZ MA, BOCAREJO JP WCTR, 2013

3. Research on Transmilenio

Transmilenio and route selection

We showed that most of TM users do not consider more than one route option

Users are not aware of the available options Transmilenio offers for their trip

Congestion in stations induces different travel decisions

Lack of information generates suboptimal decisions

25

ROUTE CHOICE IN TRANSMILENIO ESCOBAR D., LLERAS G.

62% 27%

9% 2%

Available options