WEBCONGRESS PANAMA edfernandez @efernandez What´s Next after The Smartphones War ?
Nov 28, 2014
WEBCONGRESS PANAMA edfernandez @efernandez
What´s Next after The Smartphones War ?
Really?
Not so fast…
8 Billion still to go?
You just said
the smartphone
war was over
Diffusion of innovations: Everett Rogers. 1962
World is here
US is there
Smartphone Penetration
Source: KPCB internet trends 2014 report. Morgan Stanley Internet report 2009.
ap·par·el /əˈperəl/
Noun US formal
1. Clothing. synonyms:
clothes, clothing, garments, dress, attire,
wear, garb, getup
wear·a·ble /werəb(ə)l/
Noun US formal
1. An item that can be worn.
OMsignal: bio-sensing apparel Heart Rate, Breathing, Steps
We, humans, become the
interface
Rise of the Natural
User Interfaces (NUI)
Things get “smartified”
All of Them Smart contact lens for diabetics Blood sugar reading in tears 1/sec
Mind Reading Facial expressions:
Blink Left wink
Right wink Furrow (frown)
Raise brow (surprise) Smile
Clench teeth (grimace) Glance left
Glance right Laugh
Smirk (left side) Smirk (right side)
Mental commands: Neutral Any of up to 4 pretrained items from a list of 13 labels:
Push Pull Lift Drop Left Right Rotate clockwise Rotate anticlockwise Rotate forwards Rotate backwards Rotate left Rotate right Disappear
Emotional States: Instantaneous excitement
Long term excitement Frustration
Engagement Meditation
Interest/ Affinity
What’s making this possible?
1. Technology Evolution Laws
2. Tech economy driven by Asymmetric Business models
Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months. Costs cut by a half. Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Doubles every 2 years - wired Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law) Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law Doubles every 2 years.
Technology Evolution Laws
2yrs 2x /
Asymmetric Business Models Android OS is free to foster Google’s mobile services/ads Apple invests in iTunes & developer ecosystem to foster HW sales We sign up for web services/apps for free in exchange for personal data If you’re not paying for it, you are the product
‘Truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away
New definitions of ‘success’-
money may not be
Access to luxury vs owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy & EaaS
(Everything as a Service)
Self-realization and self-actualization happens now also online
(Win)^3:
You help me, I help you, we help others
Klout score in your resume from now onwards
Global thinking, global objectives -
collective intelligence arising (Singularity)
People
Entrepreneur generation • Reduced sense of security since terrorist attacks 2001 • Destabilized economy Financial crisis since 2008 • High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations • Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or
live out of the system • Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere • Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg,
Larry, Sergey • All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself
(kickstarter, onevest) • No loss aversion fostering self driven entrepreneurship
edfernandez @efernandez
www.about.me/ed.world
gratefully KPCB: MaryMeeker, 2014 Internetreport VisionMobile: MobileMegatrendsreport Fjord: AnnualTrendsReport2014 JWT: 100ThingsToWatch2014 Horace Dediu Asymco
REFERENCES