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Results Announcement 4th Quarter and 2012 Year End Results Conference Call / Webcast February 5 th , 2013
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Page 1: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

ResultsAnnouncement

4th Quarter and 2012 Year End ResultsConference Call / Webcast

February 5th, 2013

Page 2: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:

DISCLAIMER

The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about futureevents within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, asamended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, asamended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances offuture results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect theCompany’s current views and estimates of future economiccircumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financialresults. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend","plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogousexpressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and maydiffer materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referredto the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically theCompany’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identifyimportant risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from thosecontained in the forward-looking statements, including, among otherthings, risks relating to general economic and business conditions,including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins andprevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates ofour oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gasreserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and socialdevelopments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and ourability to obtain financing.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise anyforward-looking statements, whether as a result of newinformation or future events or for any other reason. Figures for2013 on are estimates or targets.

All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in theirentirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not placereliance on any forward-looking statement contained in thispresentation.

NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS

We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gasresources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filedwith the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because suchterms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reservesunder Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2012 Highlights

Results • Operating Income: R$ 32,397 million• Net Income: R$ 21,182 million

Exploration & Production

• Improvement in planning through the accomplishment of the 2012 target (2,022 kbpd ± 2%): 1,980 kbpd• Start up of FPSO Cid. Anchieta (Baleia Azul) in September: 78 kbpd production in December• Postponement of the start up of FPSO Cid. Itajaí (Baúna and Piracaba): Feb/2013• Petrobras Pre-salt production’s share: from 5% in 2011 (100.3 kbpd) to 6.9% in 2012 (136.4 kbpd)• Pre-salt daily production record: 213.9 kbpd in Dec /27 (Petrobras)

245.6 kbpd in Dec /31 (Petrobras & partners)• Arrival of 15 deepwater rigs, total ultra deep fleet now 40 units• Proven Reserves (Brazil and International): 16.44 billion boe (SPE/ANP criterion)• Reserve Replacement Ratio (Brazil and International): 103.3%• Reserves/Production (Brazil and International): 18.6 years

Downstream

• Three price increases in diesel and two in gasoline over the last eight months: increase of 10.2% in diesel and7.8% in gasoline in 2012 and new increase of 5.4% in diesel and 6.6% in gasoline in Jan/30/13

• Oil products output: 1,997 kbpd (+5% compared to 2011)• Oil products sales in Brazil: 2,285 kbpd (+7% compared to 2011)• Daily throughput record: 2,101 kbpd (in the Aug/09-12 period)

Gas & Power• Natural gas demand: 74.5 million m³/d (89.4 million m³/d in 4Q12)• Electric generation daily record: 5,883MW in Nov/26• Natural gas delivery daily record: 49.6 million m3 /d in Oct/11

3

Management• PROEF: operational efficiency increase in Campos Basin (UO-BC and UO-RIO)• PROCOP: cost reduction target of R$ 32 billion between 2013 and 2016• PRODESIN: restructured divestiture unit. Execution of the 1st transaction (BS-4: Atlanta and Oliva)• Investment Projects: achievement of 104.8% of the physical targets forecasted in the S-Curves Performance

Page 4: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2012 Brazil Production: Target achieved according to 2012-16 BMP

• Decrease of 2% in oil and LNG production due to: Frade field interruption due to seepage (-14 kbpd), longer thanexpected scheduled maintenance (-6 kbpd) and unexpected operational interruptions (-68 kbpd).

• Increase of 5.6% in natural gas production with new wells (Canapu and Lula) and beginning of NG exports from theFPSO Cid. de Anchieta.

4

2,110 2,098

1,9931,961

1,9891,960 1,940 1,928

1,843

1,9401,968

2,032

2,4912,456

2,3462,305

2,350 2,339 2,315 2,306

2,222

2,333 2,359

2,441

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

jan-12 feb-12 mar-12 apr-12 may-12 june-12 july-12 aug-12 sep-12 oct-12 nov-12 dec-12

Oil and LNG Production Total Production (Oil, LNG and Natural Gas)

2011Average 2,022 kbpd 2012

Average 1,980 kbpd

2011Average 2,377 kboed 2012

Average 2,355 kboed

kboe

d 2011355 kboed

of Natural Gas

NG = from 355 kboed to 375 kboed

2012375 kboed

of Natural Gas

Non operated production of Petrobras: 46 kbpd in 2011 vs 23 kbpd in 2012 Operated production of Petrobras on behalf of third parties: 26 kbpd in 2011 vs 38 kbpd in 2012

Page 5: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

5

+25 kbpd

With PROEF

459

Without PROEF

434

dec/12nov/12oct/12sep/12aug/12july/12june/12may/12apr/12mar/12jan/12

398412414408

425405411

437437

469

495499

445434

448465

454437

461468

350

400

450

500

550

71.769.8

+1.9 p.p.

Oper

ation

al Ef

ficien

cy in

2012

(%)

+ 31 mbpd+ 50

+ 32+ 29

Oper

ation

al Ef

ficien

cy (%

)

PROEF start-up at UO-BC

+ 34+ 22 + 47

Oil P

rodu

ction

in 20

12 (k

bpd)

+ 57

Oil a

nd LN

G Pr

oduc

tion (

kbpd

)

Production Units: 29Production in 2012: 459 kbpd

Without PROEF the decrease would reach 101 kbpd

PROEF avoided a decrease of 47 kbpd

with PROEFwithout PROEF

In 2012 UO-BC’s average production was improved by 25 kbpd through PROEF, reaching 459 kbpd. The averageoperational efficiency increased 11 p.p., from 67% in April to 78% in December. Cost to date US$ 831 million and NPV ofUS$ 519 million.

PROEF UO-BC: Program to Recover Operational Efficiency

With PROEF

Without PROEF

PROEF start-up at UO-BC

feb/12

dec/12nov/12oct/12sep/12aug/12july/12june/12may/12apr/12mar/12jan/12 feb/12

73 74 71 67 70 69 67 71 75 76 74 78

50556065707580

+11p.p.

Page 6: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

RRR Brazil: 103% / R/P =19.3 years

RRR Brazil above 100% for the 21st consecutive year

Offshore exploratory wells: Post-salt (38) + Pre-salt (19)

Finding costs in 2012 of US$1.96/bbl

In 2012, R$ 11.6 billion invested in exploration

Exploratory Activity

16.4 Bi boe

96%4%

Brazil HighlightsSuccess Rate (Onshore and Offshore)

2012 Discoveries in Brazil / Basins2012 Proven Reserves

Proven Reserves 16.4 Bi boe at year end. In Brazil, Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) above 100% for the 21st consecutive year. New discoveries, especially in new exploratory frontiers.

6

84%

16%

Natural GasOil + NGLInternational

Brazil

Espírito Santo

Post-saltTambuatá and Grana

Padano

Campos

Pre-salt

Pão de Açúcar

Santos

Post-saltBaúna and Piracaba

Pre-saltFranco NW, Carioca Sela, Carioca Norte,Nordeste de Tupi,

Carcará, Iara Oeste, Dolomita Sul, Sul de Guará, Franco SW e

Júpiter Nordeste

Solimões / Ceará

Post-saltIgarapé Chibata /

Pecém

Sergipe - Alagoas

Post-saltBarra, Moita Bonita,

Farfan, Muriú, Cumbe

58% 59%64%

50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%

2010 2011 2012

Pre-salt: 82%

Page 7: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

Domestic Output of Oil Products: Focus on Diesel and Gasoline

Oil Products Output

kbpd

Increase of 82 kbpd in throughput using more domestic crude oil while improving the production profile. Increases in diesel and gasoline production minimized import needs.

745 782

395 438

109 1069393

Fuel OilOthers

2012

1,997

143

238196

2011

1,896

137

234183

+5%

Diesel

GasolineLPG

NaphthaJet Fuel

Throughputand Utilization

Thro

ughp

ut (kb

pd) Utilization (%

)

2012

1,594

2011

1,527

Domestic OilImported OilUtilization(%)

2012 Start up of Major Units(Refineries / Units)

REVAP – Cracked naphtha HDS

REPAR – Coke Naphtha HDT

RLAM – Diesel HDT

REPLAN – Cracked naphtha HDS

REPAR – Cracked naphtha HDS

REPAR – Coke

REPAR – Reform

REFAP – Cracked naphtha HDS

REPAR – Diesel HDT

RECAP – Cracked naphtha HDS

7

+11%

+5%

1,944

1.594

1,862

1.527+5%

340 351

92% 96%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

1,523 1,594

Page 8: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

Oil Products Sales in Brazil

880 937

489570

1011068284

+7%

2,131

Diesel

Gasoline

LPGNaphthaJet FuelFuel OilOthers

2012

2,285

224165

199

2011

188

kbpd

Increase of 81 kbpd in gasoline sales and 57 kbpd in diesel sales due to economic growth, especially retail.

Oil Products Sales in Brazil

8

+6%

+17%

224167

Oil products sales in Brazil were 7% higher compared to2011:

Gasoline (+17%): increase in the flex-fuel automotivefleet along with price advantage relative to ethanol;

Diesel (+6%): increase in the retail sector, along withhigher thermoelectric consumption in the northern regionof Brazil;

Jet fuel (+5%): higher demand in the aviation sector.

Page 9: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

Oil Products Price - Brazil vs International

9

• Price adjustments were not enough to close the gap between domestic and international prices due to theincrease in the oil price and, especially, FX rate fluctuation.

• Petrobras continues to pursue price parity, which is an assumption of the Business and Management Plan.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

july/1

1

june//

11

may/1

1

apr/1

1

mar/1

1

feb/11

jan/11

Dec/1

1

nov/1

1

oct/1

1

Sep/1

1

aug//

11

Price

s (R$

/bbl

) ARP in USGC

ARP in Brazil

ARP in Brazil* x ARP in USGC**

Jun/25 Jul/16

Adjustment:Gasoline: 7.83%

Diesel: 3.94%

Jan/30

Nov/01Adjustment:Gasoline: 10%Diesel: 2%

Adjustment:Gasoline: 6.6%Diesel: 5.4%

FX Rate: R$ 1.99/US$Brent: US$ 115.94/bbl

FX Rate: R$ 1.75/US$Brent: US$ 108.91/bbl

* *

* Forecast

2011 2012 2013

Adjustment:Diesel: 6%

∆ FX Rate: 14%∆ Brent: 6%

* Weighted Average Realization Price of Diesel, Gasoline, Naphtha, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil** Average Realization Price in United States Gulf Coast, considering the same volumes and products sold in Brazil

july/1

2

june//

12

may/1

2

apr/1

2

mar/1

2

feb/12

jan/12

Dec/1

2

nov/1

2

oct/1

2

Sep/1

2

aug//

12

feb/13

jan/13

Page 10: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

kbpd

-184 -249

66 18

43 87164 190

43 31

346

2011

749

180

2012

779

156+96%

+4%

-13%

2012

-231

2011

-118

362

2012

548

153

631

160

428

2011

364

Market growth exceeded production, leading to higher gasoline and diesel imports. Increase in domestic feedstockand lower crude oil production reduced oil exports in 2012.

10

+16%

+102%

Oil ProductsGasolineDieselOther Oil ProductsFuel OilOil

Exports Imports Balance

Trade Balance of Oil and Oil Products

Page 11: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

millio

nm³/d

1.6 8.4

+22%

2012

74.9

27.0

39.5

2011

61.2

26.1

33.5

10.8 12.1

74.5

23.0

39.3

2011

+22%

2012

61.1

10.5

39.9

SUPPLY

Natural Gas Demand and Supply

7.4 16.024.6

30.8

39.643.5

12.1 12.418.7

38.640.3

38.3

71.6 90.1

+26%

3Q12 4Q12

3Q12 4Q12

71.089.4

+26%

DEMAND

millio

nm³/d

Increase of 22% in natural gas demand in 2012 (74.5 MM m³/d), largely due to higher thermal power generation(+119%). Demand was met through higher domestic supply and LNG imports. The increase in domestic naturalgas production reduced the need for LNG imports.

Domestic

Bolivia

LNG

Non Thermal

Thermal

Refineries / E&P Fertllizer plants

3Q12 vs 4Q122011 vs 2012

2011 vs 2012 3Q12 vs 4Q12

11

Page 12: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

12

Investments of R$ 84 billion, 16% above 2011.

R$ bi

llion

Annual Investment

Physical and financial monitoring of 174 individualized projects (S-Curves):average physical realization of 104.8% and financial realization of 110.6%.

72.5 84.1+16%

20122011

34%51%

International

E&PDownstream

CorporateDistributionBiofuel

G&P

6%5%

2%1.6%

0.4% E&P: Production Development Projects of Baleia

Azul (Cid. de Anchieta), Sapinhoá (Cid. de SãoPaulo), Roncador Modules 3 and 4 (P-55 and P-62)and Papa-Terra (P-61 and P-63).

Downstream: Abreu e Lima Refinery and Comperj. G&P: UFN-3, Bahia Regasification Terminal and

UPGN Cabiúnas. International: Production Development Projects of

Cascade and Saint-Malo.

Investment by Segment Main Projects

2012 Investments

Page 13: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

↑ Aumento da oferta de gás nacional em +18%.

↔Aumento do despacho termelétrico, associado ao aumentodopreço da energia (PLD), atendido pela

NL e gás boliviano.

↓ Reconhecimento de créditos fiscais no valor líquido de R$ 928

milhões em 2011

↑ Reajuste de 7,8% no preço da gasolina e de 10,2% no el.↑ Ddddddddddddd fflfdldljfdjdfjlkfjfjgjfg dsfkjldfldfjdlkfjdflj

dslfkdfjldfjj↑ Depreciação cambial ampliou a defasagem em relação a↓ Crescimento das vendas de derivados em +7%.

dfdgffdglkfdgl↓ Maiores importações de gasolina (+102%) e de diesel

(+16%).↓ Crescimento dos custos de aquisição do óleo em Reais em

+21%.Aumento do

rate.

↓ d

↓ 1

↓ H

13

DownstreamExploration and Production

Net Result by Segment - 2011 vs 2012

R$ 40.6 Bi vs R$ 45.4 Bi

↑ g rate.

↓ d

↓ 1

↓ H

- R$ 9.9 Bi vs - R$ 22.9 Bi

InternationalR$ 1.9 Bi vs R$ 1.3 Bi

Gas & PowerR$ 3.1 Bi vs R$ 1.6 Bi

Impairment generated losses of R$ 487 milliion in 2012.

Scheduled maintenance in Akpo field (Nigeria). Start up of Cascade and Chinook fields, in deepwater GoM,

with higher lifting costs due to initial production costs.

Higher realization prices due to the FX devaluation (17%).

Increase in Government Take (+15%).

Higher lifting cost (+28%).

Higher dry hole expenses.

Increase in refining capacity utilization from 92% to 96%.

Increase of 7.8% in gasoline and 10.2% in diesel prices.

Higher oil products sales (+7%). FX devaluation increased the differential versus international

prices. Higher imports of gasoline (+102%) and diesel (+16%).

Higher crude oil acquisition costs in Reais (+21%).

Increase in domestic natural gas supply (+18%). Increase of thermoelectric dispatch associated with higher

energy prices (‘PLD’) accompanied by higher LNG andBolivian gas imports.

In 2011, recognition of tax credits in the net amount ofR$ 928 million (non recuring gain).

Page 14: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2011 vs 2012 Operating Income

2011Operating

Income

Sales Revenues

COGS SG&A 2012Operating

Income

45,403

32,397

37,203

(43,533)(4,827)

Other Expenses

(1,849)

(R$ million)

14

Higher sales revenues reflecting growth in domestic demand, as well as higher prices for domestic products and exports.

Increase in COGS due to higher sales volumes supplied by imports, and effect of FX devaluation on imports and production taxes.

Increase in SG&A expenses primarily reflecting higher personnel costs.

Other operating expenses increased due to higher dry hole expense.

Page 15: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2011 vs 2012 Net Income

33,313

21,182

(R$ million)

15

204,447555

(302)(3,845)(13,006)

2011Net Income

Equity inearnings of

investments

Profit Sharing

2012Net Income

Minority Interest

Operating Income

Financial Result

Lower operating income due to higher demand largely supplied by imports, and domestic prices below international levels.

Financial results decreased primarily due to the devaluation of the Real and higher net liabilities denominated in dollars.

Decrease in taxes as a result of reduced taxable income.

Income Tax /Social

Contribution

Page 16: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

(R$ million)

3Q12 vs 4Q12 Operating Income

3Q12Operating

Income

Sales Revenue

COGS SG&A 4Q12Operating

Income

Other Expenses

8,864(388)

(1,136)(1,318)

(98)6,120

16

Revenue: higher demand and prices offset by reduced exports (income from exports in transit not yet recognized).

Increase in COGS as higher sales volumes were broadly supplied by imports.

Increase in Other Expenses due to higher dry hole expense and impairments of international assets.

Page 17: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

3Q12 vs 4Q12 Net Income

5,567

7,747

(2,744)

3,357

(10) (117)

1,646 48

(R$ million)

17

3Q12Net Income

Equity Income

Profit Sharing

4Q12Net Income

Minority Interest

Operating Income

Financial Results

Higher net financial results from the sale of Government securities (NTN-B) and income from deposits for legal provisions.

Income tax reduction due to fiscal benefit related to provisions of interest on own capital.

Income Tax /Social

Contribution

Page 18: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

1) Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholder’s Equity)2) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment.3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days4) Period-end commercial selling rate for U.S. dollar

Capital Structure

Lower operating cash flow and higher capexresulted in net debt increase.

The devaluation of the Real (9%4) alsoincreased net debt.

R$ Billion 12/31/12 12/31/11Short-term Debt 15.3 19.0Long-term Debt 181.0 136.6Total Debt 196.3 155.6(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3 48.5 52.5= Net Debt 147.8 103.0

US$ BillionNet Debt 72.3 54.9

18

1.66 1.61

2.46 2.42 2.77

24% 24%28% 28% 30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

1

2

3

4

5

4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

Net Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/Net Capitalization1

2

Page 19: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

Dividends

19

Companies with two classes of shares must pay a minimum amount of dividends

Minimum amount to be distributed (common + prefs): 25% of Adjusted Net Income

Priority to preferred shareholders, who will receive the higher of:

25% of Adjusted Net Income

3% of the PN’s proportional book value of shareholder’s equity

5% of the PN’s proportional paid-in capital

General Rules

Proposed Dividends

PN = R$ 0.96 / share and R$ 1.92 / ADR

ON = R$ 0.47 / share and R$ 0.94 / ADRNote: 1 ADR = 2 shares

Page 20: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

2013 Outlook

20

Oil products market’s growth of 4%, lower than 2012(8%).

Flat refining output despite higher scheduledmaintenance.

Increase in diesel production (5%), to the detriment ofother products.

Higher participation of domestic oil in throughput (84% vs82% in 2012).

Downstream and Oil Products Market

Management

PROCOP: program implementation to achieve firstresults in 2013.

PROEF: continuing activities to recover operationalefficiency.

PRODESIN: intensification of the Divestment Program.

Investments

Capital budget: R$ 97.7 billion, of which 53% to E&P and33% to Downstream.

6 News Production Units in 2013 Start-Up

Total Capacity/ Petrobras Interest

(kbpd)

Sapinhoá PilotFPSO Cid. São Paulo Jan-13 120 / 54

Baúna and PiracabaFPSO Cid. Itajaí Feb-13 80 / 80

Lula NE PilotFPSO Cid. Paraty May-13 120 / 78

Papa TerraP-63 July-13 140 / 87,5*

Roncador Mod. IIIP-55 Sep-13 180 / 180

Papa Terra P-61 Dec-13 * processing capacity of

P-63

Franco’s EWT Start-up (Transfer of Rights). Sapinhoá North’s EWT Start-up.

Oil Production in Brazil Average production flat as compared to 2012. Lower production in 1H13 due to higher concentration of

scheduled stoppages and the smaller contribution from newsystems. On the other hand, in 2H13 the ramp-up ofSapinhoá, Baúna e Piracaba, Lula NE, Papa-Terra P-63and Roncador P-55 will support the production increaseforecasted for 2014.

Page 21: Webcast - 4th Quarter 2012 (IFRS)

Announcement of the Results

END4th Quarter and Year End 2012 Results

Conference Call / Webcast

February 5th, 2013