Research Paper Title: Impacts of Foreign Aid, Terrorism and Military Expenditure upon Innovation Capacity: Evidence from a Terrorism-prone Emerging Economy Muhammad Athar Nadeem School of Management - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Email: [email protected], [email protected]XU Yi * Assistant Professor School of Management - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Email: [email protected]LIU Zhiying Professor School of Management - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Email: [email protected]Amna Younis School of Public Affairs - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Email: [email protected]Faisal Asghar
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Research Paper
Title: Impacts of Foreign Aid, Terrorism and Military Expenditure upon Innovation
Capacity: Evidence from a Terrorism-prone Emerging Economy
Muhammad Athar Nadeem
School of Management - University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei
Further, to reaffirm the empirical results that were acquired by the ARDL approach, Johansen
cointegration and Granger causality, OLS method is also applied. Results of OLS regression
model reported in Table 10.
According to ordinary least square results, considering the coefficients with regarding to t-
statistics and significance, it is possible to explain that terrorism and foreign aid have a negative
effect on innovation capacity while military expenditures and GDP per capita have positive
effect on innovation capacity in both the periods.
Table 10OLS estimation results.
1986-2016Variable name Coefficient Standard Error T - Statistic prob.
C -72.12660 28.35173 -2.543993 0.017**
LTSM -1.853639 0.805668 -2.300747 0.029**
LAID -2.894983 1.490402 -1.942417 0.063*
MEGDP 2.333645 0.684165 3.410938 0.002***
LGDPPC 21.11165 3.773188 5.595175 0.000***
Note: *, ** and *** denotes significant level at 10%, 5% and 1%
5. Conclusion and recommendations
Such emerging economies as Pakistan have received a considerable amount of aid, but the
trickle-down effects have not been found in its economic situation. Our study is to investigate
whether the foreign aid, terrorism, and military expenditure have an impact on the innovation
capacity of such an emerging economy as Pakistan. Our unique effort fills the gap in the
literature and offers new insight for future research and debate. This study uses the available data
for the periods 1986-2016 and incorporates such most critical variables as foreign aid, terrorism,
military expenditure and patents with particular reference to Pakistan. We estimate the empirical
model using a time series data of Pakistan and calculate both the short-run and long-run results.
By using ARDL bound testing cointegration approach and Johansen cointegration test, we find
that the foreign aid and terrorism have negative relationships with the innovation capacity in
Pakistan while the military expenditures and the GDP per capita have significant positive
relations with the innovation capacity in Pakistan in both the long run and the short run. Despite
the fact that terrorism hits more brutally to Pakistan, but its impact is insignificant. The foreign
aid is founded to have a more deteriorated impact on the innovation capacity in Pakistan. This
study calculates the pairwise Granger causality result. According to econometric analysis applied
in this study (ARDL approach to cointegration, Johansen cointegration test, Granger Causality
test and OLS), there is negative relationship between terrorism, foreign aid and innovation.
While military expenditure and GDP per capita positively associated with innovation capacity.
This study has policy implications for the Pakistani government and other similar terrorism
prone countries and their law enforcement agencies. Decreasing the terrorism may be the first
and pivotal step to boost economic activities in all the sectors of the economy in terrorism prone
countries. Better surveillance and intelligence could prompt a sharp decline in the terrorist
activities, which consequently bring peace, stability, improve the security situation, and build
investor confidence.
Moreover, the negative impact of foreign aid on the innovation capacity in Pakistan has several
implications for Pakistan and other developing countries. It is highly recommended that the
government and policymakers should take appropriate steps to formulate the policies for
effective use of foreign aid to nourish growth. Because of the adverse effect of aid on innovation
capacity might be due to weak economic policies and ineffective use of foreign aid. One other
possible reason for the underperformance is its heavy dependency on foreign aid, as a country
might show less commitment to promoting the investment activities when it relies too much on
foreign aid. Similarly, it makes less effort to attract the FDI inflows, a critical source of
technology transfer from developed economies to developing economies to enhance the
innovation capacity. The ineffective use of foreign aid in Pakistan and other developing countries
might also weaken governance system in the country and increase rent seeking activities. To
enhance the growth and innovation capacity in the country over the long run, FDI must be
elevated and appropriate institutional policies for proper utilization of foreign aid and good
governance in the country become a prerequisite. Hence, policymakers in Pakistan and other
emerging economies should develop attractive policies, foster sound macroeconomic
environment and build an appropriate legal structure to stimulate both foreign and domestic
investment to attain better innovation capacity. It is also advised that too much dependency on
foreign aid over an extended period may not be a good solution to boost economic growth.
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