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Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat
Principal Scientists
Fernandes, J.M.C., Del Ponte, E. M.2 , Pavan3, W. and Cunha, G. R.1 1. Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University. 50011,
Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil.
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Agriculture Crops:Wheat
Abiotic FactorsBiotic Factors
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WHEAT DISEASES
Powdery mildewGlume blotch
Tan spot
Spot blotch
Take allBYDV
Blast
Leaf rust
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Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables
FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT
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Mycotoxins
DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat Zero Barley
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+PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE
HOST
=
FHB
+WEATHER(P, T ºC)
FHB Model
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WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO
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2002243
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Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002245
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Flowers: 114
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002246
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Flowers: 156
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 495
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002247
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Flowers: 212
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 719
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1078
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002248
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Flowers: 134
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 886
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1418
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1595
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002249
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Flowers: 225
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 486
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1636
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1951
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1788
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002250
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Flowers: 198
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 713
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 502
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1926
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1839
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002251
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Flowers: 243Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 889
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1497
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 732
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 2331
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1958
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1294
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002252
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Flowers: 172
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 1094
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1923
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2471
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1187
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1885
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1136
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002253
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Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002254
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Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002255
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Flowers: 238
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:927
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1027
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2861
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3149
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2998
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1879
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1092
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers:536
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002256
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Flowers: 176
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:971
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 3,59
Flowers: 1724
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 4,95
Flowers: 1183
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 5,93
Flowers: 3035
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 6,76
Flowers: 2878
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 5,03
Flowers: 2253
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 4,19
Flowers: 855
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 3,15
Flowers: 1200
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 1,04
Flowers:622
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0,62
Flowers: 253
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0,31
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002257
0.14
Flowers: 32
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:1119
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2003
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.65
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 10.71
Flowers: 1509
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.08
Flowers: 3127
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 9.36
Flowers: 2442
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 7.80
Flowers: 1694
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 5.85
Flowers: 468
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 2.85
Flowers:709
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.17
Flowers: 306
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.58
Flowers: 83
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.09
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002258
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:647
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2370
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 3194
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 12.47
Flowers: 3455
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 13.10
Flowers: 1900
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.38
Flowers: 2630
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 9.48
Flowers: 1823
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.11
Flowers: 1102
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 3.69
Flowers:211
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.67
Flowers: 333
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.71
Flowers: 95
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.13
Flowers: 76
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.02
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002259
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Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:303
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 1048
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 2916
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 12.47
Flowers: 3256
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 13.10
Flowers: 3174
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.38
Flowers: 1682
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 9.48
Flowers: 2136
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.11
Flowers: 1335
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 3.69
Flowers:733
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.67
Flowers: 125
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.71
Flowers: 113
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.13
Flowers: 97
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.02
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002260
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 393
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 1220
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 3108
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 18.86
Flowers: 3001
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 17.13
Flowers: 2416
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 14.28
Flowers: 1043
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 10.70
Flowers: 1384
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 6.09
Flowers:776
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads:3.11
Flowers: 355
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 1.43
Flowers: 43
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.37
Flowers: 112
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.14
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002261
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 19
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 567
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 1593
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 27.50
Flowers: 3258
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 25.78
Flowers: 2610
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 21.48
Flowers: 1880
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 16.11
Flowers: 645
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 9.69
Flowers: 854
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 5.27
Flowers: 401
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 2.51
Flowers: 123
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.73
Flowers: 48
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.50
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002262
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 428
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 3501
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 1977
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 2734
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 26.52
Flowers: 1945
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 19.89
Flowers: 1224
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 12.21
Flowers: 317
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 6.79
Flowers: 407
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 3.28
Flowers: 127
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.98
Flowers: 117
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.76
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002263
0.36
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 2950
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 1368
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 1759
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 2228
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1431
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 14.94
Flowers: 820
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 8.42
Flowers: 187
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4,09
Flowers: 141
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.26
Flowers: 135
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.03
FHB - SIMULATION
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Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002264
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 2239
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 567
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 1029
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 938
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1420
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 811
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 382
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 56
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 130
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
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Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002265
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 462
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 448
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 639
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 852
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 403
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 125
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 53
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 43
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002266
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1222
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 316
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 408
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 128
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 120
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 44
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002267
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1464
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 850
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 209
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 151
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 150
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 45
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002268
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1325
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 738
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 406
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 68
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 145
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 46
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002269
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 269
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 100
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 22
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 47
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002270
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 92
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 14
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 48
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002271
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 49
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002272
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 50
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002273
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 51
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002274
0.39
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 52
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002275
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 53
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002276
0.19
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 54
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002277
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 55
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002278
0.35
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 56
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002279
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Page 57
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002280
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
Page 58
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002281
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
Page 60
observed FHB index (%)
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27
devi
atio
ns (
%)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Page 61
Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and
develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems
in the Argentinean , Brazilian andUruguayan Pampas
Principal Scientists
• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil• J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil
• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia
Page 62
CROP MODELS
DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables)
FHB Sub-modelHeading starts
Page 63
Weather inputsHistoric daily weatherScenario daily weather
Wheat crop model
Agronomic inputsEarly spring wheatNine sowing datesThree-day intervalsSoil properties
Model outputFHB incidence
Page 65
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965
Page 66
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999
Page 67
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO
Page 68
Important Points
Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk
More frequent FHB epidemics
Raise food safety concerns
There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat
Page 69
Decision Support System
Apple diseases Warning SystemFusarium Head Blight System