Weather Risk in Production Agriculture

Weather Risk in Production Agriculture

May 19, 2021Eric Snodgrass

[email protected] @ag_weather

Nutrien Science FellowPrincipal Atmospheric Scientist

Nutrien Ag Solutions

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.2

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.3

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.4

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.5

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.6

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.7

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.8

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.9

3-Day

5-Day

7-Day10-Day

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.10

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.11

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.12

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.13

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.14

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.15

A brief discussion about the limits of predictability (what we are capable of doing…)Arctic Outbreak: February 2021

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.16

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.17

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.18

Did Seasonal Forecasts from 2020 Find the Flash Drought Early?

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.19

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.20

Bow Echoes

©2020 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.21

©2020 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.22

Saturday Aug 15, 2020 Waiting on NDVI imagery to show change

~700 miles, Avg Speed 55 mph, 14 hours 500+ Severe Wind Reports, quarter to golfball sized hail

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.23

Bosart and Gausini 2016

http

s://j

ourn

als.

amet

soc.

org/

view

/jour

nals

/mw

re/1

44/4

/mw

r-d-

15-0

256.

1.xm

l

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.24

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.25

But we need this type of storm system…Majority of Summer rainfall comes from them. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/5/jcli-d-18-0559.1.xml

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.26

Week #2 ECMWF

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.27

June 2021 ECMWF “Weeklies”

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.28

Summer Drought Concerns

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.29

Best Yielding Years - 2017, 2016, 2009, 2005, 2004, 1994, 1992 (retrograding ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Stays South • High Momentum in

Westerlies • Resists Blocking and

Stagnation

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.30

Worst Yielding Years - 2013, 2012,1995, 1991, 1988, 1983 (triple ridge)

What happens? • Jet stream Migrates

North • Westerlies Lose

Momentum during July and August

• Triple Ridge Block Develops

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.31

Is there a cycle to Cornbelt drought?

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.32

Are there pre-season indicators?

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.33

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-

80Dec

-80

Nov

-81

Oct-8

2Se

p-83

Aug

-84

Jul-85

Jun-

86May

-87

Apr

-88

Mar

-89

Feb-

90Ja

n-91

Dec

-91

Nov

-92

Oct-9

3Se

p-94

Aug

-95

Jul-96

Jun-

97May

-98

Apr

-99

Mar

-00

Feb-

01Ja

n-02

Dec

-02

Nov

-03

Oct-0

4Se

p-05

Aug

-06

Jul-07

Jun-

08May

-09

Apr

-10

Mar

-11

Feb-

12Ja

n-13

Dec

-13

Nov

-14

Oct-1

5Se

p-16

Aug

-17

Jul-18

Jun-

19May

-20

PACIFIC MERIDIONAL MODE (1980 - 2021)

34-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Iowa Corn Yield Anomaly

Series2

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.35

What do those cool ocean temps historically mean? (-PMM)

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.36

ENSO Forecast

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.37

June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (ECMWF)

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.38

June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (NMME)

©2021 Nutrien All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.39

June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (IRI - Columbia)

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.40

New Climate “Normals” 1991-2020

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.41

Primary Corn and Soybean Belt: 70 year Temperature and Precipitation Trends

Maximum Temperatures (-0.5°F) Minimum Temperatures (+2°F) Average Temperatures (+.9°F)

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.42

Observed Impacts of Temperature Change

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season US Climate Assessment

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.43

Increased Precipitation VariabilityApril-October +5.5” of Total Rainfall

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.44

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.45

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.46

©2021 Nutrien Ag Solutions All Rights Reserved. Confidential Information.47

https://info.nutrien.com/snodgrass_weather