ICAS Report No. 10a November 1966 A Recommended National Program In Weather Modification A Report to the Interdepartmental Committe e for Atmospheric Sciences Homer E. Newell b Y Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application National Aeronautics Si Space Administration Washington, D.C. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences I w W - a n n Q n E I > - m I
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INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 2 0 2 3 0
I CAS Repor t No. 10a
November 7, 1966
MEMORANDUM FOR DR. DONALD F. HORNI G
Subj ect: Weat her Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr am
At i t s meet i ng of March 29, 1966 t he Fe ~dr 61 ouncil askel I CASt o pr epar e a r epor t out l i ni ng "who i s doi ng what i n weat hermodi f i cat i on, t he f ut ur e pl ans of t he agenci es ( par t i cul ar l yCommerce and I nt er i or ) and t hei r i nt er r el at i onshi ps, and t heconsi der at i ons t hat shoul d af f ect deci si ons on t he di vi si on ofr esponsi bi l i t i es f or r esear ch i n weat her modi f i cat i on. "
For warded herewi t h i s a Repor t pr epar ed f or I CAS by 3r . Homer E.Newel l , t he NASA member of I CAS. I t has been t hor oughl y con-si der ed by our Comm t t ee and i s endorsed as t he I CAS r esponse
A RECOMMENDED NATI ONAL PROGRAM I N WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON
I NTRODUCTI ON
The ear t h' sJ eat her has a prof ound i nf l uence on
agr i cul t ur e, f or est r y, wat er r esources, i ndust r y, com
mer ce, t r anspor t at i on, const r uct i on, f i el d oper at i ons,
commer ci al f i shi ng, and many ot her human act i vi t i es.
Adver se ef f ect s of weat her on man' s act i vi t i es and theear t h' s r esour ces are ext remel y cost l y, amount i ng t o
bi l l i ons of dol l ar s per year , somet i mes causi ng
i r r eparabl e damage as when human l i ves are l ost i n
severe st orms. Ther e i s, t her ef or e, gr eat mot i vat i on
t o devel op ef f ect i ve count ermeasures agai nst t he
dest r uct i ve ef f ect s of weat her , and, conver sel y, t oenhance t he benef i ci al aspects. The f i nanci al and
ot her benef i t s t o human wel f are of bei ng abl e t o
modi f y weat her t o augment wat er suppl i es, r educe
l i ght ni ng, suppr ess hai l , mt i gat e t or nados, and
i nhi bi t t he f ul l devel opment of hur r i canes woul d be
very great .
Over t he past t went y year s exper i ment s have beenconducted on weat her modi f i cat i on, par t i cul ar l y on t he
ef f ect s of seedi nq cl ouds w t h such mat er i al s as
si l ver i odi de crystal s. The resul t s are l i mt ed.
Under sui t abl e ci r cumst ances i t has been possi bl e toaugment pr eci pi t at i on by t en t o t went y per cent , and t o
r educe t he f r equency of f i r e- produci ng l i ght ni ng
st rokes. Ef f ect s on hai l product i on have been not ed,
somet i mes suppressi on and somet i mes augment at i on.
These r esul t s probabl y woul d be of onl y passi ng i nt erest
wer e i t not f or the pot ent i al i mpor t ance t o manki ndof f ur t her pr ogr ess i n t hi s f i el d. Per haps t he mostsi gni f i cant r esul t of t he exper i ment s t o dat e has been
t o br i ng about a change i n at t i t ude f r omone ofskept i ci 9mt o one of caut i ous opt i msm The l i mt ed
success t o dat e i s encour agi ng, and under scores t he
i mpor t ance of pressi ng f orward w t h the necessary researcht o underst and t he dynamcs of weat her syst ems that w l l
have t o be deal t w t h i n any ef f or t s at weat her modi f i ca-t i on.
The gradual l y accumul at i ng evi dence of posi t i ve
resul t s f romef f or t s at weat her modi f i cat i on l ed t he
Commt t ee on At mospheri c Sci ences of t he Nat i onalAcademy of Sci ences, i n November 1963, t o appoi nt a
Panel on Weat her and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on " t o undert akea del i berat e and t hought f ul r evi ew of t he present st at us
and act i vi t i es i n t hi s f i el dq and of i t s pot ent i al and
l i mt at i ons f or the f uture. " The Panel made i t s r epor tat the begi nni ng of t hi s cal endar year (Ref . 1). The
composi t i on of t he NAS Panel i s gi ven i n App. I , t oget herw t h a l i s t of t he Panel ' s recommendat i ons. El abor at i on
and di scussi on of t hese r ecommendat i ons may be f ound
i n Ref . 1.
On J une 16, 1964, t he Di r ect or of t he Nat i onalSci ence Foundat i on announced the appoi ntment of aSpeci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on.
i n i t s r evi ew of t he f i el d, t he Comm ssi on act i vat edseven subgroups t o st udy the physi cal , bi ol ogi cal ,st at i sti cal , soci al , i nt ernat i onal , l egal and l egi s-
l at i ve, and adm ni st r at i on and f undi ng aspect s ofweat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on. The membershi p oft he Commssi on and a l i s t of t he pr i nci pal r ecommen-dat i ons of t he Comm ssi on are at t ached (App. 11) .Fdr t her el aborat i on and di scussi ons of t hose recommendati ons may be f ound i n the Comm ssi on' s r eport and
t he repor t of t he subgr oups (Ref s. 2 and 3).
To assi st
* Fi nal Repor t of t he Panel on Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi -f i cat i on t o the Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences, Nat i onal
Academy of qci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ; "Weat her
and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on, " Vol ume I - Summary and Recommenda-
Wt h the gr ow ng convi ct i on of posi t i ve and pot en-
t i al resul t s, a number of government agenci es have been
devel opi ng pl ans f or r esearch and ul t i mat el y oper at i onalprograms i n weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on. Some of
t hese pl ans st em f romt he desi r e to use weat her modi f i -cat i on t o meet speci f i c m ssi on responsi bi l i t i es such
as devel opment of wat er r esour ces, prot ect i on of cr ops,pr ot ecti on agai nst f orest f i r es, ecc: Ot her pl ans st em
- m di re= responsi bi l i t y f or f ur t her i ng our under -
st andi ng of weat her and i t s uses. A summary repor t ,"Pr esent and Fut ur e Pl ans of Federal Agenci es i n
Weat her - Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, " dat ed J une 20, 1966, wasprepared f or t he I nt erdepar t ment al Comm t t ee f orAt nospher i c Sci ences (ICAS) by a Sel ect Panel on Weat her
Modi f i cat i on (App. 111). - Whereas t he ICAS Sel ect Panelr epor t r ef l ect ed a desi r abl e vi gor i n pressi ng f orward
i n t hi s i mpor t ant f i el d, never t hel ess, i t r ai sed a
number of quest i ons as t o the soundness and adequacy of
pr oposed pl ans, t he val i di t y of cost est i mat es, t he
avai l sbi l i t y of t rai ned peopl e to meet t he schedul es
pr oposed, over l appi ng of r esearch act i vi t i es, dupl i cat i onof pr oposed f aci l i t i es, r esponsi bi l i t y f or coor di nat i on
and repor t i ng, and responsi bi l i t y f or r egul at i on and
cont rol .
_ _ _ _
To di schar ge i t s responsi bi l i t i es, ICAS must pr ovi de
answer s t o these quest i ons and make appropr i ate r ecommen-
dat i ons. T o t hi s end, t he Chai rman of ICAS, Dr. Her ber tHol l omon, asked me t o revi ew the proposed pl ans and t o
subm t r ecommendat i ons that mght be adopt ed by ICAS f ora r epor t t o Dr . Donal d F. Hor ni g, Di r ector of t he Of f i ce
of Sci ence and Technol ogy, Execut i ve Of f i ce of t he Presi dent .
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THIS STUDY
The t erns of r ef er ence f or t hi s study are set f or t h
i n t he memorandumf romDr . Hol l omon t o me (App. I V) ,
speci f i cal l y request i ng me t o f ormul at e a Nat i onal Weat her
M o d i fi c at io n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e
r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather Modi f ica t ion .
APPROACH
I h a v e t a k e n th e ICAS S e l e c t P an el Repo rt (App. 111)
a s my s t a r t i n g p o i n t , and have u se d t h e NAS P a n e l a nd NSF
S pe ci a l Commission Repor ts (Refs . 1, 2, 3 ) a s s o u rc e s o f
e x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t e
i n s u f f i c i e n t d e pt h i n t o t h e p ro blem s in v o lv e d , I p u t
t o g e t h e r a p a n e l of NASA e x p e r k s , th e c o n s t i t u t i o n ofwhich i s g iv e n i n App. V . W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t h
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e D ep artm en t of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h eE n vi ro nm e nt al S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E S S A) , t h e
In t e r i o r De p a r tm e n t ' s Burea u of Re c la m a tio n, a nd th e
Nat io na l S c ie nce Founda t ion (NSF), t o h ea r b r i e f i n g s on
program plans and budgets , t o d i s c u s s pr op o se d s c h e d u l e s ,
s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t io n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t o
r e vi e w i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t es t imates .W e r e c e iv e d f ro m th e s e a g e n c ie s a c o n s id e ra b le volum e of
sup por t ing documenta t ion . Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s achronology of P ane l me et in gs , and a l i s t o f m a t e r i a l
rev iewed by the Pane l .
I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above
f o u r ag e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r pro gra ms , a s s e t f o r t h i n
t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a ne l R e p o rt , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of
t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weath er m o d i fi c a t i on a c t i v i t y i n
1970 . Because th e programs of t h e Depar tment of Defense ,
t h e Fe d e ra l Av ia t io n Agency, and t h e Na t io n a l Ae ro n a u t i c s
and Space Ad mi n is t ra t ion w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t of t h e
t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t r eview ed i n d e t a i l .
I n a s s es s in g t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t e s t i m a t e s , I
sough t t o d e te rm in e r e a l i s t i c a n d r e a so n a b le orde r s of
m ag nitud e. P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g
* Hencefo r th the NASA Pa n e l w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o s imply
A s w e l l as I c o u ld d e t e rm in e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s
a r e c o u n t i n g i n la rg e measure on us in g the same peoplea t v ar io us c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y
out the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a rs t o hav e t h e
k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s o f p e op le r e q u i r e d t o mount a
vigorous program i n we athe r m o d i f i c a t io n r e s e a r c h , b u tt h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t an yt hi ng l i k et h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t he se peo ple
can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n ed from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .
I n g e ne r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y b etw een p r o j e c t e d
manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s an d r e q u i r e m e n t s . Th i s s e r v e s t o
emphas ize t h a t p roposed r a t e s o f p rogram growth a r e
i nd ee d t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a v ig o ro u s e f f o r t s ho ul d
b e made t o i n c r e a se t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l c om peten ce i n t h e
wea the r modi f ica t ion f i e l d .
There a r e a f e w a r e a s of s u f f i c i e n t im m ed ia te p ro m ise
t o warran t moving ahead on ex per im en ta l op e r a t io na l pro-
grams. One i s t h e s e e d in g o f o ro g ra p h ic c lo u d s i n wes te rn
a r e a s t o augment wa te r p r e c i p i t a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s i n g w at er
supply. Another i s t h e s e e d in g of d ry , sh a l lo w s to rm s
i n t h e Rocky Mounta in re g i on s fo r su ppr ess i on of the
k i n d of l i gh t n i n g t h a t c au se s f o r e s t f i r e s . I n o th er
a r e a s it a pp ea rs t o o e a r l y a t t h e p r e s e n t t im e t o un de r-
t a k e o p e r a t i o n a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f w ea th er m o d i f i c a t i o n .
What is needed a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e and fo r the immediatef u t u r e i s a p rogram of re s ea rch , in c l ud ing some f i e l d
programs , d i r ec te d toward unders ta nd ing the p hys ics and
dynamics o f weather systems t o p rov ide a s c i e n t i f i c
b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e x p e ri m e n t a ti o n i n w e at he r m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I n g e n e r a l , t h e p ro p os e d program c o n t e n t f o r all
f o u r ag e n c i e s ap p ea r s so u nd , b e i n g b ased on as se s sm en t s of
p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , o r o n a r eco g n i t i o n of t h eneed f o r r e s e a r c h . E xc ep t f o r q u e s t i o n s o f u n d e s i r a b l e
d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t con-
t e n t o f p ro po se d p ro gra ms , b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f
p rogram phas ing , p roposed r a t e s of growth, and t h ev a l i d i t y of d o l l a r es t ima tes .
i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my
judgment a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .
D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e P r o q r a m
I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f
a b o u t $600K i n FY 1967' gr ow ing t o $7M i n FY 19 7 0 i s
j u s t i f i a b l e . About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 97 0 f i g u r e i s f o r
f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r ch as e a n d o p e r a t i o n o f s m a l l
a i r c r a f t a n d a much n e e de d r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y .
r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d program
i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1970 f i g u r e
c o u l d be l a r g e r .
I f
T he D e p ar t me n t of A g r i c u l t u r e program, pro jec ted
t h ro ug h FY 1970 , c a n be c o n s i de r e d i n t e r m s cf two n a j c r
ca t eg o r i e s :
1. D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather
2. E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t in g research
T h e s e r e l a t e i n th e main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c
h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, and a s t u d y o f
t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n u pon f a rm a n d f o r e s tc ro p s an d o n l a n d man ag emen t i n g e n e r a l .
The d i r e c t w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f th e
program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n expa nded l i g h t n i n g s u pp r es -
s i o n e f f o r t a nd a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o wa rd h a i l su p -
p r e s s i o n , t h e D ep ar tm en t s t a t e s : " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of
t h e U . S . F o r e s t Serv ice i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e r e sea rch
program a i med a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s
some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
Af i e l d e x p e r im e n t i s t e s t i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f v e r y h e av ys e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e on l i g h t n i n g s to rms . The
r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d -
t o -g r ou n d l i g h t n i n g f ro m s e e de d s t o r m s . A s p e c i a l l y
i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g t h r e e r a d a r s an d a
n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u se d f o r th e
cl oud seedi ng exper i ment s and f or st udi es of l i ght ni ngcharacter i st i cs. The t ype of l i ght ni ng di scharge most
l i kel y t o i gni t e f orest f i r es has been i dent i f i ed.Hi gh out put ai rborne and ground based si l ver i odi degenerat or s have been devel oped. Ut i l i zi ng data f romthe exper i mental area and a net work of l i ght ni ng surveyst at i ons, physi cal and mat hemat i cal model s of mount ai n
t hunderst orms are bei ng devel oped. I *
Pr oj ect Skyf i r e i s provi di ng t he basi s f or achi ev-
i ng a si gni f i cant r educt i on i n l i ght ni ng damage i n t hef orest areas of t he west ern Uni t ed St at es, whi ch i s ofappreci abl e benef i t t o t he count ry. The obj ect i ves of
Skyf i re cl ear l y f al l w t hi n t he mssi on responsi bi l i t i esof the U . S . Forest Ser vi ce, whi ch shoul d cont i nue to beresponsi bl e f or t he proj ect.
The present programhas been underway f or overt en years. From the dat a presented t o t he Panel , i t
appears t hat t hi s ef f or t has been under f unded i n r el a-t i on t o i t s pot ent i al val ue to the agency' s m ssi on,
and to t he Nat i on. I r ecommend, and r egard as m ni mal ,t he f ol l ow ng ef f or t proposed by Agr i cul t ure:
1. Expanded l i ght ni ng i nvest i gat i ons at t he
M ssoul a Exper i ment al si t e and at t he Nor t hernForest Fi r e Laboratory.
2. Per f ormance of l arger scal e seedi ng exper i -
ment s i n t wo wel l i nst rument ed experi ment alar eas i n the Nat i onal Forest s of t he Nor t her n
Rocki es. A capabi l i t y shoul d be devel oped,by st r engt heni ng r esearch r esources al ready
avai l abl e, to oper at e these exper i ment alar eas ei t her separat el y or si mul t aneousl y.
* Uni ted St ates Depart ment of Agr i cul t ur e, Summary ofWeather Modi f i cat i on Resear ch Programpresented onJ une 28 , 1966.
w e r e submit ted , however , t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a la rge-s c a l e p rogram a t t h i s t i m e .
a re inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l yh a i l s u p p r e ss i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o s uc h a p p l i c a t i o n s asc r o p p r o t e c ti o n .
N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s
S c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o d a t e
I recommend against th e expans ion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s
h a i l su p p re s s io n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h e
t i m e b e i n g . I recommend t h a t th e Environmental S c ien ce
S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a ti o n , i n c lose c o o p e ra t io n w i t h the
D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take the lead i n t h e d ev el op -
ment and conduct of a program t o u n d e r s t a n d th e bas ic
phys ics o f ha i l -p roduc ing s to rms , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o nmechanisms. I recommend t h a t , as t h e n ec es sa ry s c i e n t i f i c
r a t i o n a l e i s developed, t h e Depar tment of A g r i c u l t u r e t aket h e l e ad i n c o n du ct in g large-scale f i e l d e x p e r im e n t s i n
h a i l su pp re ss io n, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e w es te rn p l a i n s areaw h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t severe . Shou ld
t h i s become a c h ie v a b le i n t h e 1970 t i m e pe r i od , th e t o t a lDepartment of A g r i c u l t u r e w e a th er m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o r
FY 1970 would have t o be l a rger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e de a r l i e r.
The e c o l o g i c a l and s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n of
t h e program includes three areas : b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e s
t o weathe r m od i f ic a t i on , boundary - laye r ene rgy exchange ,
a n d rem ote s e n s in g i n su p p o r t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .A t p r e s e n t , there i s l i t t l e w o r k under way i n t h e f i r s t
a r e a , and o n l y modest, e a r l y e f f o r t s e x i s t i n t h e l a s tt w o .
I f e e l t h a t A g r i c u l t u r e ' s e x p e r i en c e a nd i n- ho us ec a p a b i l i t i e s i n su ch areas a s eco logy , boundary - laye r
energy exchange, and bas ic research i n s u pp o rt of t h e i re x c e l l e n t l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n p rogram r e q u i r e augm enta-
t i o n . T h e s e e f f o r t s a re p e r t i n e n t t o a program of weatherm o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h a n d a p p l i c a t i o n , a n d a re otherwisep a r t of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e m i s si o n. I n some r e g a r d s , however,
I do have concern . F i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o changes
i n s p e c i e s b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u gh weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r
e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e cons i de rab l e u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o
t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . It i s v e r yi m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f ore , t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y
b a s e l i n e d a t a f o r l a t e r c o m p ar i so n s a n d a n a l y s e s .
S i m i l a r l y , a prog ra m i n b ou nd ar y l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d
t h r o u g h w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n m ust d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s
of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e -a n d- e f f e c t r e l a t i o n -
s h i p .
I c o nc l ud e t h a t th e b u d g e t s u b m i s s i on b y A g r i c u l -
t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a nd s u p p o r t i n g research
p o r t i o n s of the program i s i n e x c e s s of th e presen tc a p a b i l i t y .
these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a nd s h o u l d be
s u p p o r t e d .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n
D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r Proqram
I recommend a D ep ar tm en t of I n t e r i o r b ud g e t f o r
w ea th e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967
g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 97 0, i n c l u d i n g n e ed e d
f a c i l i t i e s an d o p e r a t i o n . The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s
p r o g r am i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u gm e nt a ti on .
The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b ee n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l
w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a nd t h u s a n
e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a nd u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e rr e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e
n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t .
The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c
Water R e s o u r c e s P r o g r a m has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i -
c a l a n d econ om ic f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g th e w a t e rs u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e cl am a t i on p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w
s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p ro gra m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d
t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goa l of t h e " e f f ec t i ve ,
b e n ef i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s a tm o sp he ri c
w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . ' I *
T h e program t o g a t e h a s i nc l ud e d, a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,c l o u d - s e e d i n g e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g th e a c q u i s i -
t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l th e e x p e r im e n ta l a r eas , and
c l ima to logy .
I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number of
f i e l d e x p er im e nt s i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a tt h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t ud y of capclo ud s ha s produced amounts of w a t e r which appear to
o f f e r promise o f economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s
Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u dp h ys i cs t o a c t u a l m o d if i c a ti o n o p e r a t i o n s , and i n c l u d e s
t h e d ev elop me nt of i n s t ru m e n ta t io n a n d d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n
sys tems.
The Southe rn S i e r r a p ro gram h a s s t u d ie d t h e e f f e c -
t i v e n e s s o f c l o u d s e e d in g i n t h a t s p ec i a l i ze d a r e a .The P a c i f i c Nor thwest p rogram has inc luded exper imen ts
on s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from a r e a s of s u r p l u s t oa r e a s o f d e f i c i t .
I n Washington and Oregon th e windward slopes of
c o a s t a l m ou ntains r e c e iv e l a r g e amounts of p r e c i p i t a -
t i o n , t h e run -o ff o f w h i c h r e t u r n s t o t h e ocean unused.
F a r t h e r i n la n d , t h e r e a r e a r e a s where t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n
i s l e s s t h a n on e t e n t h a s g r e a t . I f it w e r e p o s s i b l e
t o s h i f t some of t h e l o s t p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e economic
b e n e f i t wo u ld be g r e a t .
The r e s e a r c h p rogram s u b m i tt e d b y I n t e r i o r t o ICAS
r e f l e c t s q u i t e w e l l a l l a r e a s o f s tu d y t h a t w i l l be
r e q u i r e d t o s u p po r t pr op os ed i n t e n s i v e f i e l d e x pe r im e n ts
* Plan s fo r t h e Dep artm ent o f I n t e r i o r ' s A tm o sp he ri c
Water Resources Program, pr es en te d t o ICAS on May 1 3 ,
i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n s u c h as those ment ioned
above. I conc lude tha t the p rogram i s so u n d ly b a se d ,
is b e i n g c o m pe t en t ly c a r r i e d o u t , i s of b e n e f i t t o t h e
coun t ry , and shou ld be c o n t in u e d . I f e e l t h a t t h e
p r o p o s e d r a t e s of g ro wth e xc ee d I n t e r i o r ' s in -h ou se
and p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a c t o r c a p a b i l i t y and I recommend t h e
l o w e r r a t e of growth for t h i s r e s e a r c h area cor respond-
i n g t o t h e b u dg e t f i g u r e s g iv e n above.
The s u p p o r t i n g b ud g et m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h e
P a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establ ishment of f i e l d l a b o ra t o ri e s
w hich w ould i n c l u d e t h e f o l lo w i n g n e c e ss a r y f a c i l i t i e s :
r a d a r and raw in so nd e i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n
s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o ps , a i r p o r t s , t em po ra ry h ou si ng ,
e t c . I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t of a n e x t e n s iv e
~ets-mrk f such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y
and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished with in t h e Depar t -
ment of I n t e r i o r ' s mi ss io n. I est imate t h a t n o t more t h a n
t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w ith t h e apparen t po ten -
t i a l i t i e s o f t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r th rough t h e
F Y 1 9 7 0 t i m e per iod . The c o s t pe r f i e l d s i t e a s deduced
f ro m th e m a te r i a l p ro v id e d b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p ro x im a te ly
2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g s uch e qu ip me nt i t e m s a s
we a th e r r a d a r , r a w in so n d e s , t e l e m e t ry s e t s , t r a c e rd i s p e n s e r s , a n d a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g in e a i r -c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d s i t e s . This equipment i s
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e p ro po se d s i t e implementa t ion s e t
f o r t h i n t h e m a t e r i a l s u p p l i e d b y I n t e r i o r .
I recommend t h a t I n t e r io r c o l l a b o ra t e w i t h ESSA i n
a cc om pl is hi ng I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augment ing pr ec ip i t a -
t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t he a s t er n s e c t o r o f the c o u n t ry .
I b e l ie v e t h a t t h e r e a re s i g n i f i c a n t a d va nt ag es t o
I n t e r i o r ' s d ev el op in g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d ag ree men tw i t h ESSA t o a cc om plis h t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Such
an arrangem ent would sp read th e base of the government ' s
e x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . It would permit ESSA t o
i n t e g r a t e t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n a c t i v i t y w i t h
a b ro ade r p rogram of re se a r ch on t h e p h y s i c s a nd
dynamics of weather mo di f i c a t io n and wi t h wea ther
r e s e a r c h i n g en e r a l . A l so , it would p r o v id e I n t e r i o r
w i t h v a l u a b l e a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s i m p o r t an t w a t e r 'resources program. I f such a c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h ESSA
i s a r r an g ed , E S S A ' s a s s i s t a n c e may p e r m i t a c c e l e r a t i o n
of the p r e c i p i t a t i o n au gm en ta ti o n p ro gram, which i n
t u r n would r e q u i r e e a r l i e r i n c re a s e s i n t h e I n t e r i o rbudget t h a n a r e i n d i c a t ed i n the curve of App. V I .
The c o ll a b o ra t i o n recommended above i s one example
of how t w o ag en c i e s may p r o f i t a b l y work t o g e t h e r t oa ch ie ve t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e g o a ls . It may be e x p e c t e d t h a t
many s u c h o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l a r i s e i n t h e w e a t h e r
m o d i f i ca t i o n p ro gram, and f u l l ad van t ag e sh o u ld be t ak en
of thos e op po r tu ni t i es . The development and o p e r a t i o n o f
a l a r g e - s c a l e weather s im u la t i on f a c i l i t y w i l l b e n e f i t
f r o m m u l t i ag en cy co l l ab o r a t i o n i n i t s des ign and u s e .
Although I recommend below t h a t ESSA be the pr ime mover
i n th e a r e a of s e v e r e s t o r m m o d i f i c a t i o n , it i s r eco g n i zed
t h a t I n t e r i o r and A g r i c u l t u r e h av e a n u l t im a te i n t e r e s t
here, and one can fo resee t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of c o l l a b o r a t i v e
e f f o r t s among ESSA, I n t e r i o r , and A g ri c ul tu r e.
Like t h e Depar tment of Agr icul ture , t h e Department ofI n t e r i o r h a s an i n t e r e s t i n and concern w i t h t h e e c o l o g i c a l
e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I n plann ing f o r p rograms
i n a tm o s ph e ri c w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e Depa rtm en t i s i n c l u d -
i n g p r o v is i o n f o r a p p r o p r ia t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a .
E S S A Proqram
I recommend a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n b u d g e t f o r ESSA
of abou t $1.5M i n F Y 1967, r i s i n g t o a b ou t $25M i n
FY 1970. I s u p p o r t t h e pro gram c o n t e n t , b u t q u e s t i o nt h e p r o p osed r a t e of growth t o $20M i n F Y 1968. While
ESSA d e m on s tr at e d t h e n e c e s s a r y d i v e r s i t y of in-houset a l e n t , I a m u n ab le t o j ud g e wh et he r ESSA i s a b l e t o
r e a s s i g n a l l t h e need ed p e r so n n e l f ro m o t h e r a r e a s t o
t h e w ea th er m o d i f ic a t io n e f f o r t .
The proposed E S S A program i s a broad r esearch and
devel opment ef f or t of si gni f i cant magni t ude and content .
I t cover s t he many areas t hat must be underst ood t o
at t ack and sol ve t he probl em of at t ai ni ng benef i ci alweat her cont rol . The f ol l ow ng t echni cal ar eas, f rom
a l i st provi ded by ESSA, i l l ust rat e t he breadt h of t he
proposed ef f or t : cl oud physi cs; atmospher i c el ect r i ci t y;
st at i st i cal desi gn and eval uat i on; hur r i cane st ructure
and modi f i cat i on; severe l ocal st or mst r uct ur e; at mos-
pher i c cont am nat i on; i nadver tent modi f i cat i on; comput er
model i ng; gl obal cl oud anal ysi s, pr i mar i l y sat el l i t e
work; drought and cl i mat i c var i at i ons: at mosphere
r adi at i on and heat bal ance; sea/ ai r i nt er act i on;
t r anspor t and di f f usi on pl ume t r aci ng; speci al i zedi nst r ument devel opment : hydromet eorol ogy; soci o-
economcs ; and ecol ogy.
I bel i eve that a broad research and devel opment
ef f or t of t he general cont ent of t he proposed E S S A
program i s essent i al t o a si gni f i cant nat i onal weat her
modi f i cat i on ef f or t . I r ecommend t hat E S S A have t he
r esponsi bi l i t y f or t he research and devel opment t hat
i s essent i al t o a vi abl e nat i onal weat her modi f i cat i on
pr ogr am suppl ement i ng and i nt egrat i ng t he researchpr ogr ams of t he mssi on- or i ented agenci es. But , Ir ecommend t hat E S S A not dupl i cate the programs of the
m ssi on- or i ent ed agenci es di scussed above, and the
basi c r esearch programs of NSF di scussed bel ow Ist r ongl y suppor t t he E S S A mssi on responsi bi l i t y i n
ar eas such as severe stormsuppr essi on, hur r i cane
modi f i cat i on, and l arge- scal e l ong- range at mospher i c
model i ng.
The f ol l ow ng areas are consi dered essent i al f orest abl i shi ng t he broad base of r esear ch necessary f or
t he nat i onal weat her modi f i cat i on ef f or t .
t i ons gi ven bel ow were ext racted f r omt he mat er i al
pr ovi ded by E S S A . The recommended f undi ng permt s
i ncl usi on of t hese act i vi t i es i n t he E S S A program
1. Mo d i f i c a t io n of Winte r Lake Storms: These
s torms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n t i n e n t a l
c o l d a i r b l o w s a c r o s s th e u n f r o ze n l a k e s , p i c k i n g up
mo is tu re f rom t h e warm wa ter su rfa ce . The l o c a lc h a r a c t e r of t h e s torm would pe rm it over-se eding and
r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of th e p r e c i p i t a t i o n .
' 2. M o d i fi c at io n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n
at tempt would be made t o s ee d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c lo u d s
w i t h c on d e ns a ti o n n u c l e i i n o r d e r t o i n c re a se t h e i r
c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p re ve nt r a i n . T hi s a c t i v i t y
may en te r a sem i-opera t iona l s t a t e d u r i n g F Y 1972.
3 . A q I Dif fu s io n : T h i s p r o j e c t s u p p l e m e n t s the
r e se a rc h u n d e r i t e m 1 above. It i s b e l i e v ed t h a t t h e
v e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI c an be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n te r
i n t h e G r e at Lakes Region dur in g pre sen ce of ex tended
su p e rc o o le d c lo u d l a y e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e ra t e d i n
g r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r f a c e . The a n a l y s i s of
i t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o ud de ck w i l l be done by radar .
4. Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t
Storm Fury. It i n v o lv e s the con t in ued s t ud y of cumulus
dynamics by means of the re lease of hea t of fus ion
th ro ug h s e e d in g w i th p y ro t e c h n ic s . A two-year cy cl e ofr an do mize d f i e l d e x p e r im e n ta t io n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e
Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , wh ic h p e rm i t s s tu d y o f b o th
m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o ud s .
5. H a i l Suppress ion : Se ver a l approaches a re
contempla ted: ( a ) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s tu dy h a i l s to n e
s t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d th e h a i l s t o n e
o r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t o
a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f m o th er cl ou d and
a n v i l i n t h e h a i l p ro c e s s , a n d ( c ) r a d a r s t u d i e s t oa n a ly z e fu r t h e r t h e "a na tom y" of t h e h a i l s t o r m .
A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;
Bou lde r, Co lorado : and F l a g s t a f f , Ar izona.
6. I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a ti o n : I n a d v e r t e n t m o d i fi c a-
t i o n of th e wea the r occu rs because o f po l l u t i o n of t h e
atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l g as eo us and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u -e n t s , and c ha ng es i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r a nd a l b e d o d ue t c ?
a g r i c u l t u r e a nd c o n s t r u c t i o n . The e f f e c t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n
become ap pa re nt i n three a r e a s :
o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which a re s t u d i e d i n t h i s
program.
a t mospher i c chemi s t ry ,
(a ) Benchmark Proqram: The c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f
a tm o s ph e ri c c o n s t i t u e n t s , n a t u r a l l y and a r t i f i c i a l l y
g e n e r a t e d , w i l l be measured a t va r i ous l oca t i on s . The
Mauna L o a O b s e r v a t o r y an d t h e B ou ld er s t a t i o n s w i l lt ak e p a r t i n t h e f u l l program . O th e r s t a t i o n s may be
s e l ec t ed i n t h e Eas t e rn U . S . and i n t h e n o r t h e r n and
southern hemispheres .
mon i t o r i ng 0 3 and C02 conten t s . The f i r s t phase w i l l
co n ce r n i t s e l f with the development of a CO2 moni t o r i ng
method. Even t ua l l y , t he concen t ra t i ons of su l ph a t e s ,
n i t r a t e s , c h l o r i d e s , and b i o l o g i c a l c o n t a m i n a n t s w i l l
a l s o be moni tored.
The program w i l l b e g i n by
(b) Albedo, t u r b i d i t y , r a d i a t i o n , a e r o s o l s :It i s p la n ne d t o s t a r t on a sys t ema t i c r e sea rch p rog ram
t o s t u d y t h e s e p ar am e te rs .
(c ) A t m o s p h e r i c e l e c t r i c parameters: It i s
p la nn ed t o s t u d y t h e e l e c t r i c a l p ar am ete rs ( p o t e n t i a l
g r a d i e n t , c o n d u c t i v i t y , a i r - e a r t h c u r r e n t ) of t h e un-
d i s t u r b e d weather us i ng rad i osondes a l ready deve l oped .
These pa ram ete rs may prove t o be a powerful t o o l f o r
m o ni to ri ng n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l a i r p o l l u t i o n .
7. Study of Rain and Snow P r e c ip i t a t i o n : The
impor tance of t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n
p a r t i c l e s f o r e f f e c t i v e r a i n ou t must be s t u d i e d . It
i s p l an n e d t o c on d uc t f i e l d e x pe ri me n ts u s in g r a d a r , a nd
r a i n d r o p s p e c tr o m e te r s , and t o d ev elo p t h e o r e t i c a l
p r e c i p i t a t i o n m odels.
Research under t h i s p r o j ec t w i 11 p r o b ab l y r e q u i r e
8. L a b o r a t o r y S t u d i e s : A number of in-house s t u d i e s
a re planned:
( a ) C o n s t r u c t i o n o f a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s tu d y
of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o to r n a d ic s to rm s.
(b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned
t o l ea rn more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o di d e a s a
f r e e z i n g o r a s a sub l i ma t i on nuc l eus , and abou t i t s
a g in g u nd er i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e su n.
s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s o t h e r n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , s uc h a s l e a d
o x i d e , w i l l be i nv es t i g a t e d . Th i s may lead t o t h e d is co v er y
of l e ss expens i ve ma t e r i a l s w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u iv a le n tt o A g I, and u s a b l e i n p y r o te c h n ic d i s p e n s e r s .
I n a d d i t i o n t o these
9. Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of the
w a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms.E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , a nd b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e rs to rage o c cu r s i n s u c h storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e c h a n c e s
of r a i n a ug m en ta ti on e x i s t .
however are mi ss i ng . The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c ti v e
s torms.
a n a n a l y s i s e x i s t (by Bra ha m) , w h i l e th e w a t e r b u d g e to f h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s of
t h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o t hese storms gave values of more
tha n 100 cu bic k i l o m e t e r s i n one minute .
Analyses by Bradbury ,
S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s
O nly f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s t hunde rs t o rms does
P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d ap pro ac h. I n t h e
i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d
u s i n g a n e t w o r k o f e x i s t i n g U . S . wea t he r i n s t rumen t s .
T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d es ig ne d t o f u r n i s h th e i n f l u x of
vapor ac ross t h e s h o r e s o f th e Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n
w ea th er s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e G ulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o ri n s ta n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i od of the summer monsoon
which i s s o imp or tan t t o Ar izona . The second phase
c a l l s f o r a m e te o ro l og ic a n a l y t i c s t u dy of t h e w a t e rbudget of s t o r m s , s up ple me nte d b y a i r c r a f t a nd r a d i o s o nd e
10. Fai r weather Cumul us St udi es: There has been
consi derabl e progress i n comput er model i ng of cumul us
convect i on. Fur t her pr ogr ess requi res t he i nput ofdata measured i nsi de cumul us cl ouds. I t i s i nt ended t o
i ni t i at e a program of i n- cl oud measurement s usi ng novel
i nst r ument at i on, Temperature w l l be measured usi ng
r emot e I R t echni ques f r omt he penet rat i ng ai r craf t : ot her
par amet er s, e.g. updraf t and l i qui d cont ent , w l l be
measur ed as i nst rument at i on i s devel oped.
11. At mospher i c Chemst ry: Thi s proj ect i s geared
t o the appl i cat i on of chemcal anal ysi s met hods t o at mos-
pher i c physi cs. I t i s i nt ended to measure, r ecord, andanal yze the chem cal const i t uent s of cl ouds, r ai n, and
ot her preci pi t at i on. I on conduct i vi t y, pH val ue, and i oni dent i t y, are some of t he paramet ers whi ch w l l be recor ded
at mount ai n stat i ons as wel l as on ai rcraf t .
12. I nst r ument Devel opment : I nst rument s must be
devel oped to per f orm over t he whol e range of at mospher i cpar amet er s f or use i n ai r craf t as wel l as on t he ground.
Ot her equal l y i mpor t ant areas of i nvest i gat i on w l l
ar i se as the ent i re program get s movi ng. I bel i eve t hat
pr oj ect s i n t he above areas of basi c research can now
be i mpl ement ed and are w t hi n the t echni cal capabi l i t y
of ESSA.
An i mport ant recommendat i on of t he Nat i onal Academy
of Sci ences was "t he ear l y est abl i shment of sever al car e-
f ul l y desi gned, r andom zed, seedi ng exper i ment s, pl annedi n such a way as t o per m t assessment of t he seedabi l i t y
of a var i et y of st ormt ypes. "* One of t hese shoul d be i nt he east er n sector of t he U . S . A s noted above under t he
*Fi nal Repor t of the Panel on Weat her and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on t o the Commt t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences,Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ;
"Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, Probl ems and Prospect s,
vol ume I - SUI mary and Recommendat i ons, Publ i cat i on No. 13508
s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I p ro po se t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e
w i t h ESSA on a l a rg e - sc a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n
a ug m en ta ti on i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n
keep ing wi th th e c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o rh a s m is si on r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n wate r re sources enhancement
wh i l e E S S A shou ld conduc t a b road p rogram of exp lo ra to ry
r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r
we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n . A v e r y i m p o rt a n t r e as o n t h a t E S S A
under take t h i s work w ith I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of
u n d e r s t a n d in g i s so t h a t E S S A may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y
w i t h t h e i r b r o a d er program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s a nd
dynamics of weather,
The ESSA o n g o i n g e f f o r t s i n se v e re s to rm s andh u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h , a nd th e development and use of the
Norman, O k l a h o m a , f a c i l i t y , sh ou ld be augmented a t a b o u t
t h e r a t e proposed by ESSA.
The Na t io n a l Se v e re S torm s La b o ra to ry (NSSL) h a s ac om pr eh en siv e o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y u se d t o d e f i n e
b e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h e
l o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s w h i c h a re th e s to rm, and t h e a s s o c i a t e d
budge ts of w a t e r subs ta nce and energy , Dur ing t h e
o b s e r v a t i o n a l per iod Apri l -June 1966, t h i s i n c lu d e dc a l i b r a t e d Do pp le r an d c o n v e n t io n a l r a d a r s , n etworks o f
56 su r face weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o -
sonde s t a t i o n s pr ov id ed b y t h e U. S. A i r Force and the
U. S. Army, and a 1600- foo t in s t rum ented t e l e v i s i o n
tower , c loud cameras, and s e v e r a l i n st ru m e nt ed a i r c r a f t
of ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g s ys te m i s under
developm en t a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energy
of storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h to rnado development
and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e ve a le d b y r ad a r .
E S S A f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e
storms can be o b ta in e d b y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f th e obse rva -
t i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s
c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s io n ,
I n a d d i t io n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i es and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,
some i m p or t an t p r e s e n t a nd p la nn ed e f f o r t s a r e :
Round-the-clock ra da r su rv e i l l a nc e and
d a t a rec ord ing . Th is should pro vid e means
f o r de t e rmi n i ng a s so c i a t i on s among seve res t o rm occur rences and topography, t i m e of
day , season , and synop t i c me t eo ro l og i ca l
pa rame t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of con-
t r o l d a t a f o r th e be t t e r e v a l u a t i o n o f
a t t e m p t s b y NSSL a nd o th e r a g e n c i e s t o
.modify Oklahoma storms.
Continued development of computer programs
fo r proc ess i n g t h e voluminous radar and mesonet-
work d a t a .
I n s t a l l a t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork surface
s t a t i o n s b etw ee n e x i s t i n g o n es now loca ted 10
t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s a reneeded t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e sca les of motion
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f severe s t o r m s .
Cons t ruc t i on o f a l0cm-Doppler r ad a r f o r
im proved v e l o c i t y m ea su rin g c a p a b i l i t y a t
l onge r r ange .
Development of improved means f o r d i r e c t d i g i t a l
record ing and process ing of convent iona l and
Dopp l e r r ada r da t a .
S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N at io na l Hurr i c ane Research Labora-
t o r y , M i a m i , Fl o r i d a , and coope ra t i ng g roups a re s t udy i ngt h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s env ironmen t, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l
c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t
t h e development of one. The f o ll o w in g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d
b y ESSA g i v es t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e hu r r ic a n e research
A s a n o te o f c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s ho ul d be made
on the complex i ty of t h e p roposed res ea r ch . A s i l l u s t r a t e d
b y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t s t o r m F u ry , t h e p ro b a-b i l i t y o f a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n purp0se.c
a t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e s t o r m s e v e r y t w o
y e ar s. I nd ee d, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s have y e t t o a c q u i r e t h c
f i r s t such s to rm w e l l i n t o t h e s ec on d y e a r of o p e r a t i o n .For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p en s iv e
f a c i l i t i e s such a s f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t a re r e q u i r e d
on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s , w i t h t h e u n d er st an d in g t h a t n a t u r a l
v a ri an c e i n t h e d e s i r e d w ea th er p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s a
p r e d i c t i o n of how l ong such re se ar ch must be c o n t in u e d
b e f or e m e a ni ng fu l r e s u l t s c an be expected.
I recommend t h a t t h e p r o po se d e f f o r t by ESSA i n t h e
a r e a s of s e v e r e s t or m a nd h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h be su p p o r t e d
and p u r s u e d v ig o ro u s ly .
N S F Proqram
I recommend an in c re a se i n t h e Na t io n a l Sc i e n c e
Foundation ( N S F ) we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n b u d g e t t o a b o u t $ 5 M
i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n F Y 1970. The F Y 1 9 7 0 f ig u rei n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e s im u la -
t i o n f a c i l i t y f o r bas i c r e s e a r c h i n c l ou d p h y si c s t o be
erected a nd o p e ra t e d b y t h e Na t io n a l Ce n te r f o r A tm osph er ic
Research J N C A R ) , I f p la nn in g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,
some of t h e $10M migh t be needed e a r l i e r t h a n F Y 1970.
The Na t io n a l Sc i e n c e Fo u n da t io n p ro p o se s t o i n c r e a se
t h e su p p o r t o f b a s i c and c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h
which i s a p p ro p r i a t e a nd fu nd a m e nta l t o a n y p ro gram o f
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t io n . Th e N S F program should be d i r e c t e dtow ard t h r e e i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s : (1) t h e e s ta b l is h m e n t
o f a sound s c i e n t i f i c f o u nd a t io n f o r an i n t e n s i f i e d prog ram
o f we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n , (2 ) t h e s u b s t a n t i a l i n v o l v e m e n t of
u n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h i s area o f r e s e a r c h , a n d ( 3 ) t h e p ro d u c -
t i o n o f s u b s t a n t i a l numbers o f new h i g h l y t r a i n e d p e o p l e f o r
t h i s work. N S F d oe s n o t p l a n t o a nd " w i l l n o t d u p l i c a t e
research performed by miss io n age nc ies , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t
r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d is c i p li n e areas which w i l lsu pp le m e nt o r e x t e n d o th e r we a th er m o d i f i c a t io n r e s e a rc h
already underway and w i l l d ev el op t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o ur c e s
of knowledge and manpower i n new and im ag in at iv e a re as ." "
The N S F re sea rch p rogram t o be c o n d u c te d p r im a r i ly
a t u n i v e r s i t i e s a nd NCAR w i l l i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g areasof r esea rch :
1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t in u e d
on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r
growth o r decay produced by th e re lease o r a b so rp t io n o f
t h e h e a t of con dens at io n and he at of fus ion which may be
produced o r i n d u c e d b y n a tu ra l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t im ulu s .These s t u L i e s w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l o b s e r v a -
t i o n s of c l ou d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l e nv ir on me nt, i n s i m c l a -
t i o n chambers i n th e l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l m odels
us ing h igh speed compute rs .
2. Ice Format ion i n Clouds: The r o l e of t h e
fo rm a t io n of ic e i n c lo ud s i n p ro d u c in g r a in d ro p fo rm a t io n
w i l l be i n t e n s i v e l y st ud ie d. The mechanism whereby
a t m os p he r ic n u c l e i , b o t h n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , become
e f f e c t i v e i n f r e e z i n g s u p e r c o o l e d d r o p l e t s w i l l be f u r t h e rs t u d i e d , a n d th e importance of t h i s p r o c es s i n c o m p e ti t io n
w i t h coa lescence and sub l ima t ion w i l l be assessed . The
means whereby i c e c r y s t a l s grow t o h a i l s to n e s i z e i n
se v e re s to rm s w i l l a l s o r ec e i ve a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y as
it r e l a t e s t o p o s s ib l e c o n t ro l m echanisms.
3 . Coalescence: The p ro c e s s wh e re b y c lo u d p a r t i c l e s
combine t o f o r m r a i n d r o p s i n w a r m c lo u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d .
T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p ro ce ss t o t h e q u a n t i t y a nd
e f f e c t i v e n e s s of n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l l y in tro du ce dc o n d e n s a t i o n n u c l e i w i l l be obse rved us ing a i rborne
* " C r i t i q u e b y Presen te r" e n c lo su re t o June 28 , 1966, N S F
l e t t e r t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l s i g n e d b y P.H. Wyckoff, Program
i n s t ru m e n t a t io n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c lo ud chambers o r c lo u d
t u n n e l s i n t h e l a bo r a t o ry , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l c o ns i d e r a t i o n s
u s in g m a th e m a ti c a l models. T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
f o r c e s t o c o a le sc e n c e p ro c e s se s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .
4. C l o u d E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of charge
g e n e r a ti o n i n c l o ud s w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c lo u ds
c o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r su p e rc o o le d w a t e r o r i ce . T h e e f f e c t
o f f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on th e o r i e n t a t i o n a n d
l o c a t i o n of c h ar g e c e n t e r s w i l l be o b se rve d . The e f f e c t
o f c h a rge t r a n s f e r upon t h e s t r u c t u re a nd d yn am ic s of
t h e c l o u d before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o rm a ti on w i l l
be a s se s se d .
5 . Computer A na ly si s: Advances w i l l be made i n
computer technology i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t o
p e rm i t m o r e ac cu ra te ma themat ica l mode ling of t h e l a r g e
s c a l e m ot io ns o f t h e e a r t h ' s at mo sp he re l e a d in g t o the
e v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l t ec h n iq u es f o r a more
d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i st ur e b ea r i n g a i r massesover d rough t a rea s o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e xc es s.
The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r e
w i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d .
6. Socio-Economic, Le qal , and E co lo qi ca l Consequences
of Weather and Cl im a te Mo d i f i c a t io n : The recommendations
of the N S F S pe ci al Commission on Weather M od ifi ca tio n t o
assess t h e s o c i a l , econom ic, l e g a l and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t
of weathe r modi f ica t ion upon soc ie ty w i l l be t h e o b j e c t
o f i n t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h i n o rd e r t o i s o l a t e and e v a l u a t e
t ho s e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s which w i l l produce th e most
s i g n i f i c a n t im pa ct upon s o c i e t y due t o t h e s u c c e s s f u l
a p p l i c a t i o n of w e a th er and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u es
b y m is s io n a g e n c ie s .
The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c at i o n t o be
suppor ted by NSF p ro v id e s t h e primary mechanism f o r produc ing
t h e numbers of trained s c i e n t i s t s t h a t t he t o t a l program w i l l
r e q u i r e . Ex c e s s iv e fu n d in g f ro m NSF, however, would
monopolize a m ajor s o ur c e o f q u a l i f i e d p e rs o nn e l t h a t t h e
o t he r agency programs must r e l y on. I recommend, therefore,
a f u nd i ng l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f o fwhat NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a pa c it y o f t h e
academic community i n t h e area of we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n
i n a d d i t io n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR. T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o rt
would c l e a r l y pe r m i t NSF t o fund p rograms adequa te ly t h a t
a r e now being " s t r e t c h e d " and would p r o v id e t h e s t i m u l u s
needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e N SF program s ta ted above. I
recommend f u r t h e r , b e c a u s e of the fundamenta l importance ofa c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a tt h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d im me diat ely t o the l e v e l s
suggested above .
C a p i t a l F a c i l i t i e s
I s u p p o rt , i n g e n e r a l , th e agency p roposa ls
f o r e x te n si ve c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which a re n e c e s sa ry
t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a rc h and d e ve lo pm en t a s w e l l as
o p e r a t i o n a l m is si on s. Such f a c i l i t i e s i nc lu de a i r c r a f t ,
e x t e n si v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e te or ol og ic al
s e ns o r n etw ork s and d a t a an a l y s is f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e
l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s ( cl ou d cham bers, e t c . ) , and h igh-
s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l com puters f o r modeling ofa t m os p he r ic p r oc e ss e s. A l lo c at i on of f a c i l i t i e s s h ou l d
b e b as e d on t h e f o l l o w i ng p r i n c i p l e s :
1. If a m ajor f a c i l i t y se r ve s a s p e c i a l m i ss io n-
o r i e n t e d p u rp o se and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be
j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t pu rp os e, th e f a c i l i t y s ho u ld
be e s t a b l i s h e d and o pe r at e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c
e l e m e n t of the agency charged wi th t h a t miss ion .
For example: S m a l l a i r c r a f t and f i e l d s i t e sf u l l y u sed by the Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i n
t h e i r l i g h t n i n g s u pp r es s io n m i s si o n s ho ul d be
e s t a b l i s h e d a nd o p e ra t e d b y the Department of
A g r ic u l t u re a s p a r t of t h a t m i s s i o n . I n g e n e r a l ,
I n assi gni ng r esponsi bi l i t y f or t hese f aci l i t i es
consi der at i on al so shoul d be gi ven t o thei r use
by i ndi vi dual agenci es f or purposes ot her t hanweat her modi f i cat i on.
I r ecommend that ESSA' s proposed program f or
f i el d f aci l i t i es, i n addi t i on to t he Nor man,
Okl ahoma f aci l i t y, be conducted w t h due r egar d
f or t he m ssi on needs of t he Depart ment of
I nt er i or. Speci f i cal l y, t he f i rst st ep i n t hi sexpansi on shoul d be a gener al purpose f i el d
f aci l i t y i n t he Nor t heast ern Uni t ed Stat es.
ESSA shoul d est abl i sh and operat e t he si t e notonl y f or ESSA's r esear ch, but al so i n col l abor at i onw t h t he Depar t ment of t he I nt er i or , and t he
f aci l i t y shoul d be shared bet ween at l east t hzse
t wo agenci es.
The devel opment of an under st andi ng of t he basi c
physi cs of cl oud f or mat i on, dynam cs, and
di ssi pat i on i s of pr i me i mpor t ance i n det er m ni ng
t he nechani sms t hat can be used t o modi f y cl ouds
and cl oud syst ems. As a weather si mul at i onf aci l i t y, t he ver y l ar ge cl oud chamber h o l d s
pr om se t o be a power f ul t ool f or such i nvest i ga-
t i ons. At t he same t i me, prudence di ct ates t hat some
exper i ence be obt ai ned w t h one. such chamber bef or e
any consi der at i on i s gi ven to the const r uct i on ofot hcrs. Because such a f aci l i t y bear s a ver y st r ong
r el at i onshi p t o uni ver si t y r esearch pr ogr ams and
t he t r ai ni ng of r esear ch t al ent , I r ecommend t hat
such a f aci l i t y be est abl i shed and operat ed by t he
Nat i onal Cent er f or At mospher i c Research underNSF sponsorshi p. On t he other hand, because of
t he i mport ance to ot her agenci es of t he r esear ch
t o be done w t h t he cl oud chamber, I r ecommend
t hat N S F associ at e t he ot her agenci es w t h NSF
i n t he pl anni ng and desi gn of the chamber , and
The prese n t -da y op er a t io n i n mode ling techn iq ues
and n u m er ic a l f o r e c a s t i n g p r o ce d u re s i n d i c a t e s .t h a t a la r g e -s c a le , y e t t o be developed, computermay w e l l be r e q u i r e d . The p l a n n i n g o f i n d u s t r y
i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e c o m pu te rs ne ed s t o be known.
A l s o , t h e b a s i c research of t h e programs recom-mended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t s ho uld c l a r i f y
t h e r o l e of su ch com put ers, and may in de ed re-
move some of t h e need f o r t hem. H e r e a g a i n ,
however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n in g p h as e.
I a l s o recommend t h a t E S S A should e s t a b l i s h and
o p e ra t e l a r g e- s c a l e d i g i t a l c om pu te rs f o r t h e
purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e ri c c i r c u l a t i o n modelst o w ea th e r m o d i f i c a ti o n . It i s e x p e c t e d t h a t
e s t ab l i shmen t and ope ra t ion o f these computingf a c i l i t i e s cou ld be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y
by , an d sha red w i th , o t he r programs wi th i n E S S A .
While I f e e l t h a t a l a rg e m obile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r
bo th wea the r and wea the r mod i f i ca t ion r e sea rch i s
i m p o rt a nt t o t h e long range development o f th es e
f i e l d s , I a m un ab le t o d ete rm in e a t t h i s t i m e what
would be a r e a s o n a b le p ro gram f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n tof such a f a c i l i t y . I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o
fo l low a s t ep - b y- s te p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an
optinum l ar g e- sc a le f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which th e
development and use by i n d i v i d u a l a g en c ie s of t h e i rown neces sa ry smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would
be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g s t eps . I f e e l t h a t th e l a t t e rshould not be n e gl ec te d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g al ar ge -s ca le f a c i l i t y i n t o b ein g. I recommend
t h a t work tow ard t h e l a r g e -s c a le f l i g h t f a c i l i t y
rem ain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p la n n in g s t a g ef o r t h e t i m e be ing .
A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l an n in g , r e s e a r c h
and a p p l i c a t i o n s o f w e at h er m o d i fi c a t io n a r e br o ad and
v a r i e d i n scope, and have the i n t e r e s t of many agencies.Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d in a t io n i s im p e ra t iv e , and w i t h
th e p a s sa g e o f t im e c o o rd in a t io n w i l l become e v e r more
i m p o r t a nt t o s ound pl a n n i ng a nd e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n
of th e program. I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h a n d a p p l i c a -
t i o n s o f w ea th er m o di f ic a ti o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o
m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and su p p o r ti n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d ,
i t would b e an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t em p t t o s e p a r a t e them.
Hence, I recommend t h a t t he F ede ra l C oor din ato r , who
a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o rd i n at i on and r e p o r t i n g
i n t h i s a r e a o f m et e or o lo g y , un d e rt a ke c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h eNa tj .o na 1 We athe r Mo d i f i c a t io n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e
c o o r d i n at i o n o f n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n m et eo ro lo gy ;
B y " c o o r d i n a t i o n " I m e a n l a r g e l y " c o r r e l a t i o n ,
in c l ud in g document ing and tab u l a t in g i n one p lace , and
a n a l y z i n g e x i s t i n g g overnm ent program a c t i v i t y , p r o-
v i d in g f o r a l l concerned a c on ti nu in g v i s i b i l i t y o f t h e
w hole n a t i o n a l w ea th er m o d i f i ca t i o n e f f o r t . I t i s
i n te n d ed t o a s s i g n t h e same k i nd of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n
we a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n t h a t t h e Fe d e ra l Co o rd in a to r nowhas f o r meteorology. Such a w e l l organized program of
c e n t r a l c o r r e l a t i o n o f p rogram a c t i v i t i e s may be e x p e c te d
t o lea d t o ag reements and a r rangements among th e a gen c ie s
on s u c h t h i n g s a s j o i n t p ur ch as e of m a t e r i a l s and e q u i p -
m en ts , common su p p o r t and u se of f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t f i e l d
o p e r a t i o n s , e l i m i n a t i o n of u n d e s i r a b l e d u p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e
e s t a b li s h m e n t o f o b s e rv i ng n e t s , e t c . It i s n o t i n t e n d e d
t o g i v e t h e F e d e r al C o o rd in at or r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r program
p la n n in g o r c o n t ro l . These would c o n t in u e t o b e t h e
r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o f t h e o p e r a ti n g a g e n c i e s and u nd er t h er e v ie w o f I C A S . The o v e r a l l r e s u l t w ould b e an e f f e c t i v e l y
I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e ra l C o o rd in at or f o r
Meteorology should be a s s ig n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g
and s u b m i t ti n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a th e r
m o d if ic a ti on a c t i v i t i e s . T h is r e p o r t i n g a ss ig nm e nt
i s a t p r e s e n t b y law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c eFoundat ion . I b e l ie v e t h a t it i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e
N S F of t h i s burden. For o n e t h in g , t h e p r i n c i p a l
f u t u r e of w e at he r m o d i f i c a ti o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d
tow ard a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h a nd o p e r a t i o n s , w hic h a r e n o t
and should not be i n the mains t r eam of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i -
b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c r e s e a r c h . S ec on dl y, a s h a s a l r e a d y
b ee n p o i n t e d o u t , w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h an d
o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y i nt er w ov e n w i t h m e te or o-
l o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t in g r e s e a r c h . R e q u i r i n g t h e
F e d e r a l C o o r d i n at o r f o r M e t eo ro lo gy t o r e p o r t on t h en a t i o n a l w e at he r m o d i f i c a ti o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p pe a rs
t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .
Req u l a t i o n an d Co n t r o l
A s brou ght ou t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S pe c i a l Commission
Repor ts ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n a n d
c o n t r o l i n w e a t he r m o d i f i c a t i o n i s a complex and urgent
one. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a speci f ico r g an i z at i on t o b e as s ig n ed t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r
r e g u l a t i o n a n d c o n t r o l of w e a th e r m o d i f i c a t io n a c t i v i -
t i e s . I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations.
I f e e l v e ry s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s t
n o t be one o f t h e o p e r a t i n g ag e n c ie s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n
th e Nat io na l Weather M od if ic a t io n Program. T o a s s i g n
t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i ty t o one of t h e se ag en c i e s would
im m ed ia te ly g e n e r a t e c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h e
seed s of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l t o e n d le s s f r E s t r a t i o n .
I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o ul d n o t be t h e
I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e fo r Atmospher ic Sciences
(ICAS). I n my v iew , t h e r eg u l a t i o n and co n t r o l f u n c t i o nw i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k f o r a m o d es t s t a f f of p eo p l e ,
p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l we ath er m o d if i c a ti o n e f f o r t
i n c r e a s e s a n d as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope.
I C A S i s i n n o p o s i t i o n t o u n d e rt a ke s u ch a f u l l - t i m e
ass ignment . Moreover, many o f the co nf l i c t -o f - in te re s t
p r o b l e m s t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n
t o o ne o f t h e o p e r a t in g a g e n ci e s would a l s o e x i s t i n
su ch an a s s i g n m en t t o I C A S .
were t h e O f f i c e o f t h e F e d e r a l C o o rd i n a t o r f o rMeteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a te from E S S A , and perhaps
even from t h e Department of Commerce, one might ass ign
t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l C o o rd i na t or .
s t r o n g l y , h ow ever, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s betw een
t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i na t or s o f f i c e a nd ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y
amb iva len t t o make t he ass ignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F ed e r a l Co o r d i n a t o r a nunwise s tep .
I f e e l v e r y
I n t e r n a t i o n a l I m p l i c a t i o n s
By app rox ima tely 1 9 7 2 , w h e n l a r g e - s c a l e weather
m o d i f i ca t i o n ex p e r im en t s may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y
may be e x p ec t ed t o have c o n s i d er a bl e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
impact . T h i s impact w i l l be twofo ld :
(1)g e o g r a p h i c a l l y more e x t e n s i v e , t h e r e w i l l be
a need f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g s u ch o p e r a t i o n s w i t h
n a t i o n s whose t e r r i t o r i e s a r e a f f e c t e d b y
those o p e r a t i o n s . I f e x p er im e n ts t a k e p l a c eo v e r o cean s t h e r e may be a c o n f l i c t w i t hwea t h e r m o d i f i ca t i o n ex p e r im en t s b y o t h e r
n a t i o n s . This i s e s s e n t i a l l y a q u e s t i o n
of r eg u l a t i o n an d co o r d i n a t i o n . It is n o t
ex p ec t ed t h a t a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y
body w i l l e x i s t b y t h a t t ime. Indeed, e f f o r t s
A s ex p e r i m en t s an d o p e r a t i o n s become
Indian Ocean would r e s u l t n ot o n ly i n t h e
p rev en t i o n o f p r op e r t y damage se ve ra l orders
of m a g n i t u d e g r e a t e r t h a n i n North America,
b u t a l s o , and m o r e i m p o rt a nt ly , i n t h e s a v in gof c o u n t l e s s numbers of human l i v e s . S i m i l a r
b e n e f i t s would occu r from p r ec i p i t a t i o n
a ug m en ta tio n b y r e l i e v i n g l a r g e areas from
t h e e f f e c t s of ex ten s iv e drought s . Thus,
v a l ua b le e x pe ri en c e g ai ne d i n i t i a l l y on as m a l l e r , n a t i o n a l sca le , may e v e n tu a l l y be
i m po r ta n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , p e r m i t t in g us t o
c o o p e r a t e w i t h and a s s i s t o th er c o u n tr i e s i n
t h e sav ing of human l i v e s and pro pe r ty , and
i n t h e enhancement of human w e l f a r e . T h i si s a n o t h e r of th e b e n e f i t s t h a t may r e s u l t from
a v i g o r o u s n a t i o n a l program s u ch a s t h a t d i s c u s s e d
i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s .
Concludinq S t a t e m e n t
I t i s b e l ie v e d t h a t t h e p la n I recommend h e r e i nwould p erm i t t h e development of a National Weather
Modif icat ion Program wi th a s a t i s f a c t o r y fo rw ard t h r u s t
a t a r e a l i s t i c pace, would provide i n t e r e s t e d a g e n c i e sw i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l and s a t i s f y i n g in v ol ve m en t, w ould
make good u s e o f t h e e x p e r ie n c e and i n t e r e s t of t h e
v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h ass igned agency
r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , c an d e ve lo p i n t o a w e l l- c o o rd i n at e d
and i n t eGr a t ed n a t i o na l p rogram, and shou l d avo i d
Fi nal Repor t of the Panel on Weat her and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on t o t he Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences,
Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences- Nat i onal Research Counci l ;"Weat her and Cl i mat e Modi f i cat i on, Probl ems and Pr ospect s, "Vol ume I- Summar y and Recommendat i ons, Vol ume II- Resear ch
and Devel opment , Publ i cat i on No. 1350, 1966
Report of the Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on; "Weather and Cl i mateModi f i cat i on, " Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-3, transmtted
t o NSF December 20, 1965
Repor t t o the Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on; "Weat her Modi f i cat i on Law,Cont r ol s, Oper at i ons, " Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-7 (no
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ONt o t he
Comm t t ee on At mospher i c Sci ences
Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences - Nat i onal Resear ch Counci l
AREAS AND RECOMMENDATI ONS
Admni st r at i on and Fundi ng of Research and Devel opment i n
Weat her Modi f i cat i on
We r ecommend an i mmedi at e and t horough st udy of t headmni st r at i on and support of r esear ch and devel opment
i n weat her modi f i cat i on.
We r ecommend t hat i mmedi at e st eps be t aken by t heagenci es t o r ai se the suppor t f r omt he 1965 l evel of
$5 m l l i on t o at l east $30 ml l i on by 1970.
Proj ect s i n St i mul at i on of Pr eci pi t at i on
We recommend t he earl y est abl i shment of several car e-f ul l y desi gned, r andom zed, seedi ng exper i ment s, pl annedi n such a way as t o per m t assessment of t he seedabi l i t y
of a var i et y of st or mt ypes.
We r ecommend, t her ef ore, t hat means be f ound, at f ederal
expense i f necessar y, t o secur e much bet t er eval uat i ve
repor t s on oper at i onal pr ogr ams t han ar e cur r ent l yavai l abl e.
We r ecommend t hat at t ent i on be gi ven i mmedi atel y t o
caref ul moni t or i ng and regul at i on of oper at i onal pr ogr ams
f or weat her modi f i cat i on.
Re search Proper t i es
We recommend t hat pl anni ng be st art ed i mmedi atel y on al l
the f ol l ow ng maj or f i el d i nvest i gat i ons:
3 . Advancement of w eather p re d ic t i o n a s a proof of
u n de r st a nd i ng , i n c l u di n g s u p p o rt of t h i s e f f o r t by
t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a g l o b a l we at he r o b s e r v a t i o nnetwork .
4 . Broadenins 0 - th e knowledge of c lo ud ph ys ics and
dynamics i n thc, l a b o r a to r y and f i e l d , w i t h a t t e n t i o n
t o wave phenomena and an e v a lu a ti o n of e l e c t r i c a l
i n f l u e n c e s .
5 . S tu dy of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e
m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numer ica l and la bo ra to ry models of
t h e o c ea n i c and a tm o s ph e ri c g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n ,and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n
of t h e land and sea .
6 . S tu dy of t he r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e
a tm o sp h e r i c c o m po s it io n and a l t e r a t i o n o f i t s t r a n s -
pa rency t h a t u rban g rowth and n e w forms o f i n d u s t ry ,
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o r l a n d u s e may evoke.
Bio log ica l Aspec ts o f Wea the r Modi f ica t ion
L i vi ng t h i n g s a r e a da pt ed t o t h e we at he r t h a t a c t u a l l y
p reva i l s , and any change i n t h a t w ea th er w i l l b e g e n e r a l l y
d e l e t e r i o u s t o them.
The l a r g e s t c r e d i t i te m f o r w e at he r m o d i f ic a t i on i s l i k e l y
t o he a n in c re a se i n pr imary p roduc t ion of t h e d r i e r
p a r t s ui ' I:he land sur fa ce through improvements i n r a i n f a l l .
Even t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l s ea so na l d i s t r i b u t i o n of
r a i n f a l l would l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t f ar mi ng o p e r a t i o n s .
R e a l i z a t i o n of t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o du c ti o n w ould
depend upon be in g a b l e t o modify t h e r a i n f a l l w it ho ut
m ajor p e s t o u tb re a k s a nd e x t i n c t i o n a nd d i s r u p t io n o f
na tu ra l communi t ie s . I t i s n o t c e r t a i n t h a t t h i s w ould
The l ar gest weat her modi f i cat i on debi t i t emi s l i kel y
t o spr i ng f romt he decreased st abi l i t y of communi t i es,
whi ch woul d mani f est i t sel f i n an i ncrease i n pest s,weeds, and pat hogens. The i dent i t y of t he speci es i n-
vol ved i n t hese di sr upt i ons cannot be pr edi ct ed, norcan t hei r cost .
For t he pr esent , weat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on shoul dbe rest r i ct ed t o i ocal smal l - scal e operat i ons.
Larger scal e oper at i ons, such as an at t empt t o i ncrease
the rai nf al l of any subst ant i al par t of t hi s count r y,
shoul d not be under t aken, f r oma bi ol ogi cal poi nt ofvi ew, i n the pr esent st at e of know edge.
A l l weat her modi f i cat i on exper i ment s of a scal e l arge
enough t o have i mpor t ant bi ol ogi cal consequences, such
a t hose cur rent l y envi si oned f o r t he ' u' pper Col orado
Basi n, shoul d be pr eceded and accompani ed by car ef ul
ecol ogi cal moni t or i ng and comput er si mul at i on st udi es.
Mani pul at i ng t he weat her t o obt ai n a net benef i t wi l l
demand much bet t er underst andi ng of t he i nt er act i ons ofweat her , cl i mat e and or gani sms t han now avai l abl e.
Adequat e under st andi ng of t he i nt er r el at i onshi p ofweat ner , cl i mat e and ecol ogy w l l demand a ver y expensi ve
l ong- t er mr esear ch program Present r esour ces ofecol agi cal l y t r ai ned i nvest i gat or s ar e i nadequat e to
ccjpe wi t h t hese probl ems.
Tho Worki ng Gr oup of t he Ecol ogi cal Soci et y of Amer i ca,
whi ch pr i - vi ded backgr ound mat er i al f or t he Comm ssi on,
was concer ned pr i mar i l y wi t h modi f i cat i ons of weat hersyst ems rangi ng f roma si ngl e cl oud t o an ext r at r opi cal
cycl oni c st orm The Wor ki ng Group st at ed t hat shor t -t ermmodi f i cat i ons of weat her of a magni t ude si m l ar
t o t h e f l uctuat i ons i n nat ur e are l east l i kel y t o havedanqerous unf or eseen consequences. I f undesi r abl er esul t s appear , the modi f i cat i ons can be di scont i nued.
R ep eated o p e r a t i o n s on t h e s c a l e m e nt io ne d a r e l i k e l y ,
how ever, t o have f a r r e a c h i n g b i o l o g i c a l c on se qu en ce s
a s p o i n t e d o u t i n t h e p rev i ous se c t i o ns , and some o ft h e b i o l o g i c a l c ha ng es would n o t b e r e v e r s i b l e . T h i s
ad vis or y group recommended t h a t rep eat ed and long t e r m
m o d i f i c a t i o n s of weather : lot be a t te m p t e d w i t h o u t p r i o r
c a r e f u l a n d w e l l p lanned mon i t o r i ng o r compute r s i m u l a t i o ns t u d i e s o f t h e b i o l s g i c a l c on se qu en ce s of p a r t i c u l a r
k i nds of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n .
S t a t i s t i c a l A spec ts of Weather Modif icat ion
S t a t i s t i c a l t r a i n i n g f o r m et eo r ol o gi s t s s ho uld b epromoted i n academic p rograms . I n t e l l e c t u a l i n t e rchang e
between s c i e n t i s t s and s t a t i s t i c i a n s s ho ul d b e c o n ti n ue d
t h r o u g h p e r i o d i c s e m i n a r s .
S t a t i s t i c a l c o ns u l t an t s s h ou ld be made av a i l a b l e t o
s c i e n t i s t s i n t h i s f i e l d th rough t’ie suppo r t o f con fe r -
ences where n e w p r o j e c t s can be p r e s e n t e d , t h r o u g h u s e
of s t a t i s t i c i a n s a s e v a lu a to r s of prop osed work, and
t hr o ug h t h e s u p p o r t o f t a s k f o r c e s an d a d v i s o r y p a n e l s ,
w i t h s t a t i s t i c i a n members, f o r l a r g e p r o j e c t s . S t a t i s t i -
c i a n s s h ou ld a i d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of p r o p o s a l s f o r
government -suppor ted research .
Step? shou l d be t a k e n t o a s s u r e t h a t p la n s f o r g ov ern -m ent-supported r e se a rc h u t i l i z e s t a t i s t i c a l p r i n c i p l e s
111 de t e rmi na t i on o f de s i gn and s i z e .
Kewarch i n methodology should be promoted. Th is in -
clude;; L;,C development and va l ida t ion of s t a t i s t i c a l
models, u n it or m it y t r i a l s and o t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f
t h e s t a t i s t i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n
i n t h i s work.
I t i s urged t h a t any re gu l a t o r y agency t h a t m i gh t comei n to b ei ng sh ou ld have a s t a f f s t a t i s t i c i a n t o g ui de
e f f o r t s t o g a t h e r v a l i d e v i d e n c e on t h e m ag nitu de and
A program of car ef ul l y pl anned pr eci pi t at i on- or i ent edf i el d exper i ment s shoul d be car r i ed out under compl et e
cont r ol of t he sci ent i st s, embodyi ng t he requi r ed
t echni cal know edge, possessi ng cont i nui t y over a per i od
needed f or concl usi veness, and on suf f i ci ent scal e t opermt geogr aphi c concl usi ons, as wel l as st at i st i calstr at i f i cat i on accordi ng to t he type of seedi ng agent ,
mode of i nj ect i on, cl oud t ype, et c.
The Human Ef f ects of Weat her and Cl i mate Modi f i cat i on
St eps shoul d be t aken t o assure t hat wher ever f i el dexperi ment at i on or commerci al operat i ons are undert akeni n weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on arr angement s be
made t o st udy t he soci al consequences.
A speci al panel shoul d be establ i shed t o exchange andgi ve c r i t i c a l r evi ew t o the resul t s of such st udi es.
The method of assessi ng i mpacts of weat her modi f i cat i onshoul d be t he subj ect of research l ooki ng t o i t s r e-
f i nement and extensi on.
Freedomof f i el d exper i ment at i on shoul d be suppor t edby pr ovi di ng i ndemni f i cat i on of Feder al l y f i nanced
exper i ment ers agai nst damage cl ai ms.
Resear ch shoul d be encouraged on the basi c r el at i onshi psbet Leen weat her character i st i cs and human act i vi t y.
Deci si on r mki ng processes i n the f ace of uncer t ai nt y
as t o weat her modi f i cat i on and i t s ef f ect s shoul d besubj ected t o car ef ul i nvest i gat i on as a means of i ncreas-
i ng the gover nment ' s abi l i zy t o pr edi ct t he resul t s ofal t er nat i ve pol i ci es and met hods f or weat her modi f i cat i on.
I nt er di sci pl i nar y study of modi f i cat i ons whi ch man makesi nadver t ent l y shoul d be encouraged.
The Commssi on has consi der ed car ef ul l y t he pr obl ems
at t endant upon t he assi gnment of r esponsi bi l i t y f orweat her and cl i mat e modi f i cat i on act i vi t i es w t hi n t he
Execut i ve Br anch of t he Federal Government .
There are no easy sol ut i ons t o t hese quest i ons. The
Commssi oi i bel i eves t he adopt i on of t he f ol l ow ng
recommendat i ons woul d si gni f i cant l y i mprove the ef f ect i ve-ness of t he Nat i on' s ef f or t s i n t hi s f i el d, and woul df aci i i t at e the achi evement of t he sci ent i f i c and ot her
obj ect i ves speci f i ed el sewher e i n t hi s repor t .
a. Responsi bi l i t y f or Resear ch, Devel opment , and
Oper at i ons
The Comm ssi on recommends: (1) t he assi gnment oft he m ssi on of devel opi ng and test i ng t echni ques
f or modi f yi ng weat her and cl i mat e t o a si ngl e agency
i n t he Execut i ve Br anch of t he Gover nment - f or
exampl e t o the Envi r onment al Sci ence Servi ces
Adm ni st r at i on of t he Depar t ment of Commer ce or t o a
compl etel y new agency organi zed f or t he pur pose; (2)t ne cont i nuance and expansi on of r esear ch i n t he
at mospher i c sci ences by t he Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
i ncl udi ng i t s pr ogr amdi r ected at pr ovi di ng a sat i s-
t i ctory sci ent i f i c basi s f or weat her and cl i mat e
nx5f i cat i on and t he mai nt enance of t he Nat i onal
<t :!iiter f or At mospher i c Resear ch as a basi c r esear ch
f aci i l t y for t hi s pur pose; and ( 3 ) t he conduct or
suppor t , pur suant t o Execut i ve Order 10521, of such
basi c and appl i ed r esear ch by ot her Feder al agenci es
as i s requi red! f or t hei r var i ed m ssi ons as wel l as
t he conduct of oper at i onal act i vi t i es necessary f ort he accompl i shment of such m ssi ons (e. g. , pr eci pi t a-
t i on augment at i on f or t he r eser voi r systemof t heBureau of Recl amat i on; l i ght ni ng suppr essi on by t he
U . S . For est Ser vi ce; m l i t ary appl i cat i ons by t he
The degr ee of t he Foundat i on' s speci al at t ent i on t ot hi s f i el d, i ncl udi nq ?he suppor t of r el at ed r esearchi n ot her af f ected di r : i pl i nes, shoul d be revi ewedf romt i me t o t i me ir: t he l i ght of t he progress oft he over al l nat i onal program The Foundat i on needs
t o cont i nue t he vi gor ous suppor t of basi c r esearchi n t he at mospheri c sci ences because f undament al
k: i ow edge so der i ved i s a necessary underpi nni ng t ot echnol ogi cal progress i n weat her and cl i mat e
mcdi f i cat i on.
The agency assi gned the mssi on of devel opi ng andt est i ng techni ques f or modi f yi ng weat her and cl i mat e,as a par t of i t s over al l m ssi on, shoul d have maj or
but not excl usi ve responsi bi l i t y i n col l aborat i on
w t h t he St at e Depar t ment f or f ormul at i ng and i mpl e-ment i ng weat her and cl i mate modi f i cat i on programs
i nvol vi ng i nt ernat i onal col l aborat i on wi t h thegovernment s of other n a t i o n s . T h e gover nment ' s
act i vi t i es i n i nt ernat i onal cooperat i on can be
substant i al l y assi sted by t he par t i ci pat i on of the
Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences.
Regul at i on
The Comm ssi on recommends t hat r esponsi bi l i t y f orappropr i at e Feder al r egul at i on of weat her and cl i mat exodi f i cat i on act i vi t i es t o a i d t he Federal Govern-
m<.nt's progr amof research and devel opment and to
- , ; otect t he gener al publ i c be kept separat ed f r om
K - ~.ealrch and devel opment act i vi t i es whi l e assur i ng
prompt and f ul l avai l abi l i t y t o such act i vi t i es ofdat a der i ved f r omt he regul at i on of commer ci al and
ot her operat i onal 2ct i vkt i es. Such a combi nat i onni ght be achi evc, d, f or exmpl e, by assi gni ng t he
regul at ory f unct i on to some par t of t he Depart mentcf Commerce not concerned w t h weat her and cl i mate
Ear l i er i n t hi s r epor t t here has been di scussed t henat ure of m ni mum r egul at or y act i on whi ch may berequi red on the part of t he nat i onal Gover nment t o
assure the i nt egr i t y of exper i ment s conduct ed by
Federal agenci es or t hei r gr ant ees and cont r act or s.I t shoul d be poi nt ed out i n thi s connect i on t hatFeder al agenci es and thei r cont r act or s and gr ant eest hemsel ves wi l l necessari l y be subj ect to some of
t he same t ypes of r egul at i on t hat appl y t o commer ci aloperat i ons. A Feder al agency f i el d exper i ment i n-vol vi ng l ar ge- scal e cl oud seedi ng f or exampl e, cancause the same i nt er f er ence wi t h other schedul edexperi ment s as can cl oud seedi ng conduct ed by a
commerci al operator.
Consequent l y, Feder al agenci es wi l l need t o besubj ect t o many of t he rul es and r egul at i ons i ssuedby the t ype of r egul atory uni t r ecommended above.I nsof ar as t he regul at i on i nvol ves requi r ement s of
not i ce of exper i ment s, l i censi ng of act i vi t i es andt he l i ke, t her e woul d seemt o be r eason why al lFederal agenci es shoul d be subj ect theret o. The
regul at i ng agency shoul d al so have t he power t oresol ve mnor conf l i ct s bet ween agenci es, such as
t he preci se t i m ng of par t i cul ar exper i ment s. Anymaj or di sagr eement s woul d i nvol ve pol i cy and adm ni s-t rat i ve coor di nat i on as di scussed bel ow
c. I nt er - Agency Coor di nat i on of Pol i ci es and Pr ogr amAct i vi t i es
The Comm ssi on r ecommends t hat t here be est abl i shed
w t hi n t h e Of f i ce of Sci ence and Technol ogy (OST) aspeci al mechani sm f or t he coor di nat i on of weat her and
cl i mat e modi f i cat i on programs and f or r ecommendi ngsuch st eps as may be appr opr i at e f or ef f ect i ng a
uni ty of gover nment al pol i cy i n t hi s f i el d.
I f t he gener al vi ssi on of devel opi ng t he technol ogyf or cl i mat e modi f i cat i on i s assi gned t o a si ngl e
agency, pr esent over l ap and l ack of concer t ed ef f or tamong the var i ous agenci es w l l be r emedi ed t o a
consi der abl e extent . Due t o t he gr eat i mpor t anceof t he f i el d, however , and because of t he necessi t y
of mai nt ai ni ng an i nt er di sci pl i nary and i nt er nat i onalappr oach t o weat her act i vi t i es, i t i s bel i eved t hat
cont i nui ng at t ent i on must be f or t hcom ng f r omt he
Execut i ve Of f i ce of t he Presi dent . Consequent l y,
some mechani smconcerned sol el y wi t h weat her andcl i mat e modi f i cat i on, w t h emphasi s on t he devel op-
ment and oper at i onal si de, needs t o be est abl i shed
wi t hi n t he OST. The OST' s concern shoul d embrace
f undi ng, basi c r esear ch, appl i ed resear ch, devel op-ment , t est i ng and eval uat i on. Such a mechani sm coul d
t ake over f rom I CAS t he weat her and cl i mate modi f i ca-
t i on component s. I CAS coul d cont i nue t o be concerned
wi t h atmospher i c research.
d. An Advi sory Comm t t ee
The Comm ssi on al so recommends t he ut i l i zat i on of t he
Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences and the Nat i onal Academy
of Engi neer i ng f or cont i nui ng r evi ew and advi cer egar di ng the nat i onal program of weat her and cl i mat emodi f i cat i on.
Both t he Presi dent ' s Sci ence Advi sory Comm t t ee and
t he Congr ess need t o be abl e t o obt ai n sci ent i f i c andpubl i c pol i cy advi ce f roma group of know edgeabl e
peopl e f romout si de t he Government . Thi s need coul dperhaps be met by t he appoi nt ment of a st andi ng
comm t t ee i n t he Nat i onal Academy of Sci ences i n
cooper at i on wi t h the Nat i onal Academy of Engi neer i ng.Such a comm t t ee i ncl udes persons wi t h exper i encei n t he physi cal sci ences, engi neer i ng, t he bi ol ogi cal
The Department of Agriculture i s performing o r planning weather
modi fi ca t ion research i n f iv e majo r f i e l ds :
(1) Lightning suppression(2) H a i l suppression
( 3 )( 4 ) Boundary layer energy exchange
(5 )
Biological responses t o weather modif icat ion
Remote se nsing i n suppo rt of weather modifi catio n
Present Program.
(1) Liphtning Suppression. Pr oj ec t Skyfire of the U. S. Forest
Service i s performing an ac ti ve res ea rch program aimed a t suppression
of l igh tni ng. Fi el d experiments are t e s t i n g t h e e f f e c t s of v e ry
heavy seeding with s i l ve r iod ide on l ig htn ing storms.
t o da te show th a t seeded clouds produced 1/3 fewer cloud-groundst ro ke s than non-seeded clouds.
m o s t .l i ke l y t o i g n i t e f o r e s t f i r e s ha s a l s o been i d e n t i f i e d .
Physical and mathematical models of mountain thunderstorms arebeing developed.
The resul ts
The type of l ightning discharge
*
(2) 'Hail Suppression. The main ac t iv i ty i s prel iminary planning ofa lon g range re se arc h program.
of h a i l damage to a gr ic ul tu ra l crops and re la te d resources .
S ta t i s t i c a l s tud ies a re be ing made
( 3 ) Biological Responses t o Weather Modification . The Fo re st Serv ice
and Agricul tural Research Service a re engaged i n ecolog ical st ud ie sgiv ing considerat ion t o indiv idua l spec ies under a l imited range of
cl imatic parameters.
both fores t and farm b io log ica l communities i n r e l a t io n t o sp ec i f i cfeatures of weather and climate.
These s tu di es a re developing information on
( 4 ) Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The Department of Agr ic ult ure
has had long and productive rese arch re la te d t o boundary-layerenergy exchange. These st u d ie s concern th e energy response of
evapotranspirat ion.
re la t ions hips under spe ci f i c a tmospheric s i tu at i ons .
(5 ) Remote Sensing i n Support of Weather F bd if ic at io n. The Fores tService and Agri cu ltu ral Research Service a re performing res ea rc h
f o r development of knowledge and techn ology i n remote s en sin g asapplied t o ag r i cu l tu ra l and fo re s t ry programs.
support development of t h e weather mod ific ati on r es ea rc h program.
Airborne infrared scanners are being used t o provide information on
f i r e s , vegetat ion, topographic features and background thermal radiat ion.
Advanced photograph ic tech niqu es ar e bein g developed. Plan ning i s
underway f o r an expanded research program f o r remote sensing of biomasschanges on ag r i cu l tu ra l and fo re s t l ands and dete ct ion of c r i t i c a l
Limited s tu di e s a r e underway of energy exchange
P a r t of t he a c t i v i t i e s
changes i n boundary-layer energy exchange re la ti o ns .
(1) Lightning Suppression. On the foundat ion of the resul tsstemming from Pr oj ec t Skyfir e, the Fore st Ser vice i s planning a
strengthened research program including :
( a )of a la rg er area, in ten sif ica t io n of measurement of l i gh t n i ng
discharges, and del ive ry of l a rge r qua n t i t i e s of s i lver- iodide
t o storms sel ect ed f o r t reatment. Research w i l l be stepped
up on the development of higher output s i l v e r iodide g enera tors
f o r use on a i r c r a f t and a t ground stations.c a p a b i l i t i e s will be increased t o permit simultaneous seeding
of two o r more cloud systems i n i n s t m e n t e d t e s t areas.
Expanded field experiments will permit instrumentat ion
Experimental
(b) More inten s ive inve s t igat i on of the a l ready id en t i f ie d
l i gh t n i ng s t roke most l i ke l y t o i gn i t e f i r e s and of thephys ical processes for i t s modification i s planned.
lab ora tor y experiments w i l l acce le ra te inves t iga t ions of t h e
modi fi cat ion of the e lec t r i c a l s t ruc ture of simulated clouds
wi th f reez ing nuc le i .
Strengthened
(2) Hail Suppression. A resea rch program con sist ing of fo ur major
a c t i v i t i e s i s proposed: (1) The Forest Service, ut i l izing technologyalready developed by Pro jec t Skyfi re , would i n i t i a t e b as ic s tudie s of
hai lsto rm phenomena and f i e l d experiments i n th e seeding of hailst orms ;(2) Ag ric ul tu ra l Research Service would undertake stu di es of t he
relat ionships between hails torms and the 'production and quali ty ofagr icu l tura l c rops ; ( 3 ) Economic Research Service would examine
t h e socio-economic a sp ec ts of hailstorms; and ( 4 ) Cooperative StateResearch Serv ice would e st ab li sh a grant program f or h a i l r es ea rc h
wi th un ivers i t i e s .
( 3 ) Bio lo gic al Responses. The research program proposed wouldprovide a cen t ra l ly coord inated e f f or t d i rec ted a t meeting the
gla r in g def ic ie nci es i n ecological knowledge.
weather i s t o be modified, n at u ra l communities would be s el ec te df o r stu dy and permanent p lo t s estab lish ed i n them. Communities
would be chosen t o represent th e f u l l range of environments and
major community types i n the area and espec ia l ly i n extremeenvironments.
and a f t e r a period of weather modification t o determine specie s
changes.and observed i n natu ra l areas unaffected by weather modification or
by other of m a n ' s a c t i v i t i e s .
t o cer ta in ins ec t pes ts , weed species , species near the limits oft h e i r r ange , and t o s o i l fauna and flora.
be sought.
In an area i n which
Detailed observations would be made before, during,
S imi la r p lo t s i n similar si tuat ions would be established
The proposed program would include computer simulation studies.
The research plan woilld include a continuing comprehensive .analysis
of prec ip i t a t ion da ta t o determine i f a measurable heneficial o r
detrimental effect occurred anywhere within the system.t h e r e woul d be comprehensive control led ecological s tudies on the
ef fe ct on vegeta t ion of di f fe re nt amounts and pat ter ns of pre cip i ta t io n.
Concurrently,
( 4 ) Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The e f f e c t of changing t h e
amount of advected energy through weather modification upon the
p roce ss es a t t he l e a f - a i r i n t e r f a c e w i l l be evaluated and proceduresdeveloped t o minimize th e e f f e c t of spreading droughts, o r t o t ak e
advantage of be ne f i t s from weather modification.
Microclimate co nt ro l measures W i l l be developed t o reduce evapo-
t ransp i ra t ion , t o conserve s o i l mois ture rese rves , and t o assureadequate photo synthetic ac t i v i t y of cropped and fo re ste d are as.
The effects of weather modif ica t ion on di f fus ion and eddy’t ransfer
processes th a t ar e respons ible f o r the exchange o f carbon dioxide,
water vapor, and he at between le a f su rfa ce s and th e atmosphere w i l l
be c!.arif ied .
( 5 ) Remote Sensing . Research w i l l be conducted to:
(a ) Develop technology t o determine ecologic changes of p a s t
20 yea rs re la te d t o ina dve rten t weather modif icat ion. Modernseqi lent ial a e r i a l photography compared with e a r ly photography
can provid e some pre-weather mo di fic ati on base s fo r measuring
czlrrent and future trends.
(b)mu lti sca le remoie sensing which s t a r t s a t t he mil a cre p l o t
and scal es upwards t o sa te l l i t e- sc al e high resolu t ion remote
sensing.
Develop scaling laws and change detecting systems by
(c)i n biomass and i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t r e n d s i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s
s ig ni f ic an t t o energy-balance.
Develop technology o f detect ing and measuring trends
ESSA'S PLANNED INEATHER M3DIFICATION RFSEARCH PROGRAM FOR FY 1967
Research planned by the Department of Commerce Environmental ScienceServices Administration during f i s c a l year 1967 w i l l be d i rec t ed
t o an expanded " i n house" and con tra ctu al program of instrument
and equipment development, f i e l d measurements and~exp eriments , labo rato ryinve st iga t ions , the ore t ic al modeling o f cloud physics processes,
and establishment of a bench mark program of d at a c ol le ct io n re la te d
t o inadvertent weather modif icat ion. An expanded exploration of the
st ru ct ur e and dynamics of hur ric an es through experiments designed t o
i nq u ir e i n t o t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of storm mod ifica tion by susta ined and
massive se edin g technique s i s programmed i n co lla bor ati on with th e
U. S. Navy ( P r o j ec t STORIQLJRY).
The conceptual foundat ions fo r h a i l suppression or modif icat ion
will be exaiiined through use of a newly c onstm cted mobile ha i l
laboratory operated by the ESSA Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry
Laboratory recent ly es tabl i shed a t Boulder, Colorado. A s e r i e sof surface and ai rb or ne measurements and experimen tg will be car r i ed
ou t nea r Fl ag st af f, Arizona, during July and August 1966 i n coopera t ion
wi th the U. S. Army lig ht ni ng suppression re se arc h proj ec t.
experiments incorpo rate chaff seeding techniques and the ef fe ct s of
t h i s on cumulus c l o u d e l ec t r i f i ca t i o n wl l be assessed on th e ba si s
of ground le ve l and ai r c r a f t survei l lanc e of a tmospher i c e l ec t r i ca l
parametcrs. Instrument and equipment development w i l l include a
rain drop spectrom eter, a irbo rne humidity and temperature sensing
devices, and th e construct ion o f an a i r c r a f t mounted system f o r
rele as in g lar ge quan t i t i es of hydrophi lic substances f o r a l t e r i n g
th e na tu ra l population of condensation nuclei .
A se r i e s o f f i e ld exper imen ts i nt ended to c r i t i c a l l y st il dy the
precipi tat ion augmentat ion and redist r ibut ion problem i s being
planned wi th par t icu lar reference to the Northeastern U. S. and
Great Lakes region as a follow-on research program recommended by
the National Academy of Sciences, Panel on Weather and ClimateModification.
t o c l a r i f y t h e v e r t i ca l and h or i zo n t a l d i f f u s i o n of s i l v e r i o di d e
released from ground generatmrs.and laboratory researeh will heavily emphasize cloud nucleation problems
and th e r o l e of pr ec ip i ta t i on formation and growth mechanisms i n al te r i n gcloud dynamics o r processes i n i t i a l l y under t ro pi ca l convect ive regimes.
Problems of inadvertent weather modification w i l l be approached by
es t ab l i sh i n g a sustained standardized carbon dioxide monitoring program
i n i t i a l l y a t the remote h igh al t i tude &una Loa Observatory i n H a w a i it o p rov ide .a bench mark series o f data .
The
The program w i l l include f ield experiments designed
ESSA’S P L m D hTATHER MIDIFICATION ElESEELRCH PROGRAM FOR FY 70
F i s c a l ye ar 1970 i s the middle year of the proposed ESSA five-year
weather modification program.
reaching fu l l operat in g s trengt h, and th e expenditures f o r heavy
capital equipment w i l l reach a peak dur ing t h i s year.phase of t h e e f f o r t w i l l have been under way for the previous two
years , and i t i s t o be hoped t h a t experimental ap pli cat io n of ‘modificat ion techniques could begin i n most are as.
The major f i e l d pro jec ts w i l l be
“he exploratory
Documentation of the c loud and pr eci pi t a t i on s t r uc tur e dur ing
both winter and summer months w i l l have been achieved over mostof th e experimental s i t e s , and experimental seeding operat ion swill be under way prim ari ly by a i r c r a f t , f o r est ab lis hin g optknum
techniques f o r pr ec ip it at io n co ntr ol . Ground-based randomized
seeding a t s e ve r al s i t e s w i l l be continued. Explora tion of severe
storms--hurricanes, tornadoes, hailstorm s--will continue, di re ct eda t th e establishm ent of mo difi catio n hypotheses. Experimentaltreatments w i l l be employed as app rop riate . The kackground res ear ch
e f f o r t will continue, with emphasis on la bo ra to ry stu die s, computer
simulat ion, and field observations and experiments .dynamic modeling w i l l represent an expanding effor t , wi th the creat ion
of more sophisticated models as computer ca pa bi l i t i es increase .
Instrment development will continue a t an acce lera t ing pace, wi th
emphasis on radar , a i r c r a f t equipment, and th e concept and development
of e n t i r e l y new approaches t o cloud and atmo spheric measurements.
Studies of future operat ional system concepts will b e i n i t i a t e d .
Large-scale
The major out lay i n new fa c i l i t i e s would continue t o be i n the
purchase of a i r c r a f t .
program tw o a dd i t i ona l P-3 (E l e c t r a ), wo add i t i on al execut ive
type, and one heavily s tressed m i l i t a r y a t t a c k a i r c r a f t , a r e s chedule d
f o r 1970.cons t ruct ion of a t l e a s t tw o la rg e- sc al e cloud chambers wollld be gi n
dur ing t h i s ye a r. Also, i f the des i rab i l i ty of a new na t iona ll abora tory wer e e s ta b l is he d , c ons truc ti on of t h i s f a c i l i t y would
a l s o be undertaken. Fi el d s i t e instrumentation would be continued,
p r i ma ri l y t o f i l l ou t planned complements, and t o i n s t a l l new typeso f equipment which had been developed during the f i r s t tw o years of
the program.
According t o th e proposed ESSA fiv e-y ear
With completion of d esi gn st u di es, t , i s planned that ’
DEPARTIBNT OF DEFE;NSE WEATHER M3DIFICATION PRI)GRAM FOR FY 1967
DOD's i n t e r e s t i n weather modification i s no t a general across the
board in te re s t i n weather modif ica t ion as a science o r even i n the
broad improvement i n technology.
par t i cu la r sc ie n t i f i c and technologica l a reas th a t have d i r ec t
app lica t io n t o th e improvement o f D O D ' s c a pa b i l i t y f o r c ar ry i ngout i t s mission.
It i s r a th e r an i n t e r e s t i n those
The main thrus t of the DOD e f f o r t i n weather modificat ion can be
divided in to four m a j o r problem areas. These are:
WARM FOG
The problem of warm fog and stratus receives the m a j o r emphasisi n th e DOD weather modi fic ati on program due t o i t s widespreadoccurrence and i t s adverse e ff ec t on so many mi l i ta ry operat ions.
Although a number of approachs have been made i n atte mp tin g t od i s s i pa t e warm fogs and one technique involving the applicat ion
of vast quanti t ies of heat has demonstrated a measure of successthe re i s a t prese nt no economically and ope rat ion ally f ea si bl e
method av ai la bl e f o r gerleral use. The major po rt io n o f the DODe f fo r t s i n t h i s a r e a a r e t he re fo re d i r ec t ed toward ga in ing a
be t te r understanding of the l i f e cyc le of warm f q gs i n terms of
physical parameters the knowledge of which w i l l be necessary t o
develop feas ible diss ipat ion techniques .
SEVERE STORM I B D I F I C A T I O N
The need f o r fin din g a way t o moderate the in te n si ty of t h e most
v i o l e n t forms of nature i s obvious. The m o s t ambit ious at tack on
this problem i n which WD i s involved i s k h e j o i n t DOD-DOC programfor experiments on hurricane modification known as P ro j e c t STORMFURY.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
The two a re as of i n t e r e s t jus t discussed account for 80% of the
funds devoted by DO D t o weather modificat ion.
i n t e r e s t i s th e broad t op ic of convective clouds.
in te re s t n ot only because of i t s associat ion with severe stormsbut also because i t i s the dominant type o f a c t i v i t y i n t r o p ic a lregions where much of D O D ' s area of operations i s centered.
Another area o f
This i s of major
C O L D FOG
This ac t i v i ty accounts f o r only 5% of the research ef fo r t mainly
because i t has moved in to op era tio nal use i n DOD. Research i s
continuing, however, on more ef f i c i en t modif ica tion techniques
such as t h e use of propane gas or t he t r a ns por ta t i on o f d ry i c e
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER M3DIFICATION PROGFUM FOR FY 1967
Fie ld experiments comprise the la rg es t port io n of th e Bureau's
e f fo r t s , both\ i n t h e and money.regimes w i l l cont ime i n South h k o t a and Arizona.
precip i ta t ion regimes w i l l cbntinue t o be s tud ied i n Cal i fo rn ia ,Washington, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,and Wyoming, with equipment and instrument installations continuing
i n some a reas .
Studies of summer precipitationWinter
Laboratory experiments, while n ot large i n terms of t h e and money,re pr es en t an important p a r t of our program. Programs are underway
t o s tudy the behavior of a r t i f i c i a l nuc le i when int roduced in to the
cloud base; t o f ind be t t er ways t o detec t see2 ing mater i a l i n
p r ec i p i t a t i o n as an aid i n evaluating seeding ef fect iveness ; and
t o continue th e development and refinement of telem eteri ng pr ec ip it at io n
gages
.Tn eo re t ica l and s t a t i s t i c a l s t u d i e s w i l l continue t o be supported a tthe South Dakota School of Mines, 'U nive rs ity of Nevada, Aerometric
Research, nc. , T a f t College, Fresno State College Foundation , Colorado
S ta te University, Naval Ordnance Test Stati on, U. S. Fores t Serv ice ,
U. S. Weather Sureau, and W . E . H o w e l l Associates.
inclviie mathematical modeling of cloud and precipitation processes,
ev al ua tio n techniques, new seeding agents and dev ice s, and cloud and
storm climatology.
These studies
Development of technology i s a n a t u r a l outgrowth of the research
e f f o r t s . The Bureau w i l l continue i n FY 67 t o develop seedingtechnology for cap clouds, summer cumulus and winter orographiccloud systems, and emphasis w i l l be exe rt ed t o ex p l o i t t h e cap a b i l i t i e s
of cu rr en t instru men tation and equipment (rad ar, f o r example).
Systems developnent w i l l become an inc rea sin gly important p a r t of
the program.of Reclamation wl l conti nue work i n t h i s area, with valuable as s i s t an ce
from co ntr ac tor s on th e de t a i l s of t h e components.
e f f o r t s w i l l be directed towards increasing knowledge of data
gat her ing and processing during FY 67.
During FY 67 the Denver Office staff of th e Bureau
BUREAU OF RECLAMATI ON WEATHER M DI FI CATI ON PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
I n FY 70 f i el d exper i ment s will cont i nue t o be the ar ea of gr eat estef f ort , and i t i s ant i ci pat ed t hat r esear ch acti vi t i es w l l haveexpanded to i ncl ude t he ent i r e nat i on.
t hat some areas, per haps one i n t he East and one i n t he West , w l lhave pi l ot pl ant oper at i onal pr ograms.w i l l be cont i nued st udi es of the f eas i bi l i ty of redi str i but i ngpr eci pi t at i on as par t of t he tot al wat er r esour ces devel opment oft he nat i on.at hi gher l evel s of ef f or t . However , a f ew may be t er m nat ed asanswer s t o speci f i c pr obl ems are f ound. I t i s ant i ci pat ed t hatmaj or st eps f or war d w l l be t aken i n gr ound- t o- gr ound and ai r - t o- groundt el emet r y oper at i ons and al so i n est abl i shi ng a nat i onw de weat herr adar sur vei l l ance net wor k t o ai d i n det ect i ng seedi ng oppor t uni t i esand eval uat i ng r esul t s.
By FY 70 i t i s expect ed
Among the maj or i nvest i gat i ons
Most of t he f i el d exper i ment s of FY 66wi l l be cont i nued
W t h the avai l abi l i t y t o t he progr am of maj or cl oud chamber f aci l i t i esacqui red i n pr i or year s, i t i s ant i ci pat ed t hat many of t he unanswer edquest i ons of cl oud and pr eci pi t at i on pr ocesses can be i nvest i gat ed.Ot her probl ems di scover ed as a resul t of previ ous work w i l l cont i nuet o r ecei ve at t ent i on i n FY 70.to cl oud seedi ng, i ndi r ect i nf l uences, such as soci o- econom c andbi ol oTi cal f actor s, w i l l be examned.
I n addi t i on t o st udi es di re, ctl y r el at ed
Devel opment of t echnol ogy w l l be pr oceedi ng at a hi gh pace i n vi ewof t he expandi ng progr amwill be made t oward devel opi ng an "oper at i onal manual " f or sever alar eas of t he nat i on.
I t i s expected t hat consi der abl e pr ogr ess
Syst ems devel opment wi l l col i t i nue t o recei ve maj or at t ent i on dur i ngFY 70.will r ecei ve i ncr easi ng suppor t as t he pr ogr am i n atmospheri c waterr esour ces progresses.
Studi es i n pr oper management of r esearch and operat i onal progr ams
N A T I O N A L SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATIONPROGRAM FOR FY 1967
I n FY 1967, e f f o r t s will be made t o build on th e pre se nt competence
ava i l ab le i n un ive rs i t i e s and o ther appropr ia te in s t i tu t io ns and t oencourage cooperat ive ef fo rt s between smaller groups t o pool t h e i r
ta lents and provide mutual support i n which combined e f f o r t s can bemade t o y ie ld much gr ea te r impact. The Hailswath P r o j e c t i n which
22 separa te research groups are pool ing th e i r e f fo r t s toward t he
common goa l of hai l suppress ion research a t a s p e c i f i c l o c a t io n i s
an example of t h i s type of cooperative research.
Cooperative arrangements on a smaller scale between the s t a f f s of
d i f fe r en t un ive rs i t i e s t o supplement t a l en t s are also beingencouraged by the National Science Foundation.
ve n t u re s a r e t he t e s t i ng of new nucleating materials developed a tLehigh Universit y by th e University of Chicago f i e l d pr oj ec t Whitetop,
the t es t i ng of ul t rapu re s i lv er iodide produced by the Univers i tyo f Arizona i n t he c a l i b r a t i on f a c i l i t y of the Colorado State
Universi ty, and the operat ion of a r a d a r f a c i l i t y a t Chadron StateCollege by the research team from the South Dakota School of K n e s .
The ro le of the National Science Foundation i n bringing toget her
diverse research ta lents into cooperat ive research teams i s v i t a li n developing t h e t al en te d manpower resou rces needed f o r the future ,
and w i l l i n s u r e t h a t a c r i t i c a l size of e f fo r t can be a t t a i ne d t obe e f f e c t i ve .
Typical cooperative
Incre asing em ph asi s 'is being made t o supplement th e op era tio nal"know-how" of th e f i e l d re se arch o r operat ional pr oje ct with the
t e c hn i c a l and t he o re t i c a l s k i l l o f t he t r a i ne d un i ve r s i t y s c i e n t i s t .
The recent grant t o th e North Dakota St at e College t o as s i s t and
ev al uat e - th e Bowman-Slope Hail Associa t ion effor ts on hai l suppress ion
i s an example where both groups w i l l be ne f i t by t h e i r mutual h t e r f q c e .
Wherever p os si bl e, commercial op era tor s a r e being encouraged t o incorporate
research aspe cts i n to t h e i r commercially sponsored seeding pro jec ts .Recent contracts with Wallace E. Howell Associates t o sc ie nt i f ic a l ly
evaluate the s a l t seeding of warm clouds over t h e Vir gin Is la nd s and
with Atmospherics, Inc . t o eva luate the e f fec t iveness of t h e i r s eed ing
program i n t he Kings River drainage basin i n Ca lifor nia a re examples
o f t h i s e f f o r t .
The i n i t i a t i o n of in te re s t i n weather modifica tion i n u n i v e r s i t i e s
where competence may grow i s a l s o a goal of t h e National ScienceFoundation program. In FY 1966, e f fo r t s were i n i t i a t e d a t Chadron
St a te College, i n Nebraska, North Dakota S t a t e College i n North Dakota,and a t th e Univers ity of Washington, i n Se at tl e, t o germinate new sources
of competence which w i l l produce th e t a len t f o r the f u ture .
N A T I O N A L SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAMFOR FY 1970
I n FY 1970, i t i s ant ic ipate d t h a t many of t h e s m a l l u n i v e r s i t y
research groups w i l l f i n d i t advantageous t o combine t h e i r e ff o rt s
i n t o l a r g e r r e se a rc h teams i n o rd er t o approach the study of the
atmosphere i n s i t u r a the r t han i n the l abora tory .increased capab i l i t y f o r mo b i li t y i n f i e l d o p er a ti on s i n o r de r t oachieve th e i r resea rch goals. This may well be provided by at t ac hin g
research teams t o ex i s t i ng f i e l d weather mod if i cat ion opera t iona l
p r o j ec t s a l r ead y i n ex i s t ence , o r by a povl ing of a i rcraf t , vehicle ,
radar and ground network equipment by a number of u n iv e rs it y groups.
This w i l l requi re
I t i s an t i c i p a ted t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a few l a r ge - s cal e f a c i l i t i e s
funded fo r t he t es t ing of modification schemes.
might be th e susp ension of a s pr ay nozzle over a va l le y betweentwo mountain peaks t o produce cloud-sized dr op le ts i n t o which
e l e c t r ic a l charges can be introduced i n e i t h e r pol ar i ty , contamban%s,
can be introduced, and the drop size spectrum can be adjustec! t oany reasonable di st r ib ut io n. Under NSF sponsorship, a la rg e a i r c r a f t
or blimp hanger may a l s o be converted i n t o a fog chamber f o r te s t i ng
w a r n fog d iss ipat ion techniques .
Typical schemes
Research w l l s t i l l con tinue i n univer s i ty l abo ra to r i es on bas i c
problems re le va nt t o understanding atmospheric processe s, and
"small science" hopeful ly wl l continue t o be supported along with
th e e f f o r ts of "b ig science." Emphasis w i l l be increased on the
mathematical modeling of the atmospheric processes and on the
techniques f o r sim ulatin g modification processes on th e computer
before tes t ing them i n the atmosphere.
Increas ing a t t en t io n ' wi l l be pa id t o the problem of making measurements.
i n the atmosphere.
for th e design of standardized instrumentat ion and cal ib ra t io n
techniques which w i l l be made available to the scientific community.
NSF w i l l support s tudies by qual i f i ed engineer s
By FY 1970, th e approach t o t h e problem of th e soc ia l , economic,le ga l , bi ol og ic al and eco logic al aspects of weather modif icat ion should
become su ff ic ie nt ly c le ar so t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t r e se a rc h e f f o r t s i n
these areas can be fostered and expanded,
will be equ a l ly d i f f i c u l t as t hose f aced by the phys ica l sc i e n t i s t i nweather mod ifica tion, b ut models and procedures w i l l evolve which w i l lre qu ir e major support of fi e l d evaluation st ud ie s and high-speed computers.
These w i l l be approached with in th e uni ve rs it y community and by l a r g e r
study groups withcap ab i l i t i e s .
t he mi l l i o n d o l l a r l eve l , of support .
The so lu ti on of t he se problems
commensurate r es ou rc es i n manpower and computer
By FY 1970, i t i s planned t h a t t h i s e f f o r t w i l l approach
In general , by FY 1970 it i s v i sua l ized t h a t t h e t r a n s i t i o n of
weather modifi catio n from I' small science" t o "big science" w i l l
be w e l l on the way.
support of the un ive rs i ty researcher and h i s graduate s tudents
i n the f i e ld of bas ic a tmospher ic research i n weather modi f lcation .The matrix f i g u r e s f o r NSF i n FY 1970 are an es t imate of the needs
of th e non-government s c i e n t i f i c community.
N A T I O N A L AERONAUTICS & SPACE ADMINISTRATIONWEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGFLAM FOR FY 1967
NASA' s program i n weather m odi fic ati on i.n FY 1967 w i l l be pr imari ly
a continuation of th e e f f o r t being scpported under contr act with the
Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories , Inc . on the inv es t iga t ion o f warm
fog pro pe rt ie s and fog modification concepts.
This project t o da te has emphasized a na ly ti ca l and experimental
work on st ud ie s of th e micro and macroscopic pr op er ti es of warm fogs,
techniques f o r observing fog parameters, t he simulation of fog
conditions, the experimental modification of fog, and th e formulation
of mathematical fog models.
During FY 1967 laboratory inves t igat ions of fog dis per sa l by
e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n p r i n c i p l e s w i l l be continued. Proposed id ea s f o rproducing condensation nuclei w i l l be fur ther inves t igated and
laboratory experiments w i l l be conducted t o evaluate the concept
f o r prevent ing dense rad ia t ion fog. Nuclei measurements w l l becontinued on a d a i l y b a s is , and will be c or re la te d wi th measurements
N A T I O N A L AERONAUTICS & SPACE ADMINISTRATION
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
I n FY 1970, i t i s planned t o continue the work a t the Cornel l
Aeronaut ical Laboratories i n war m fog research which will provide
the bas i s fo r d i s s ipa t ion t echn iques .
In the conduct of weather modif icat ion experiments, an i n s t m e n t e d
s a t e l l i t e v iewing th e a rea from above w i l l be extremely usef u l t o the
analys is o f t he modif i cat ion e f fo r t s .
would be able t o perform th i s support ac t i v i ty with even g rea t e r s k i l l .
Thus, observations f r o m space can be very he lpf ul i n conduct ing
experiments i n weather m odific ation .
A manned o bser ver i n space
Space launch vehicles pour out a tremendous volume of exhaust, gases
dur ing thei r act ive burning s tage.by severa l orde rs of magnitude th e q ua nt i t i es normally found i n the
atmosphere a t t hese l eve l s .
continuous study i n order t o i n su r e t h a t fu ture programs for launchingspace f l ig h t vehicles , both i n th i s country and by o ther count r ies ,w i l l not have a significant effect on the composition and motion of
the atmosphere.
exp lo re th i s a rea fu r thk r .
In quan t i ty, th e gases exceed
This si tu at io n must be ke pt under
NASA would be ple ased t o j o i n a s tu dy e f f o r t t o
NASA's ro le i n aeronaut ics and pa rt ic ul ar ly i n t h k development of
the supersonic t ranspor t natural ly involves i t i n th e over-a11 program
of severe storm predict ion and posstble modif icat ion and dissipat ion
of severe s to rms a r t i f i c i a l l y .
encourage th e ac ti ve programs t h a t would lea d t o an eventual cont ro l
of s t o r m s or other condi t ions af fect ing a i r c r a f t f l i g h t .
FEDERAL AVIATION AGENCY WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1967
Although th e FAA maintains an in t e r e s t i n a l l aspects of weather
modification which may be applied t o fu r t he r i nc re a s i ng t he s a f e t y
of a vi at io n and/or t o prov iding more e f f e c t i v e movement of a i rcommerce, t h e p re se nt re se ar ch and development pla ns and programs
are focused on methods t o disperse fog f rom ai rpor ts .begins with a defini t ion of requirements , obta ining pre l iminary cos t
information regarding the economics of a system t o modify fo g a ta i rpo r t s , and de te rmining c r i t e r i a fo r the ex ten t of the appl ica t ion
of the system.
The program
The heat technique appears m o s t promising f o r f i e l d experimentat ion.
A preliminary economic.analysis i s scheduled t o begin i n l a t e FY 1966o r e ar ly FY 1967, with st ud ie s of t e s t design and system eff ect ive nes s
c r i t e r i a be in g c a r ri e d o u t i n FY 1967.
FEDERAL A V I A T I O N AGENCY WEATHER KIDIFICATION PRQGRAM FOR FY 1970
Studies o f system effect ive ness and tes t ' des ign carr i ed out i n FY 1967will r e s u l t i n th e procurement of experimental devices and the t es t i ngof these devices t o re f ine and ver i f y the c apa bi l i t i e s and l imi ta t ions
of a fog-dispersa l sys tem.
t o begin i n FY 1968, and reaching peak e f f o r t i n FY 1969 and FY 1970.Following t h i s period of i g t en s e f i e l d a c t i v i t y , t h e re w i l l be a decrease
i n resea rch and development ac t i vi ty as the engineering and operat ional
phases of th e program become more importa nt and arrangements a r e made
fo r ope ra t i ona l a pp l i c a t i ons t o proceed as planned.
Present plans c a l l f o r - f i e ld exper imenta tion
INTERDEPA RTMENTA L COMMITTEB FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 2 0 2 3 0
J une 21, 1966
MEMORANDUM FOR DR. HOMER
Subj ect : Nat i onal WeatheT odi f i cat i on Pr ogr am
At i t s Si xt y- f our t h Meet i ng on J une 20, 1966 I CAS agreedto proceed w t h the deve1opm:nt of a Nat i onal WeatherModi f i cat i on Pr ogr amal ong t he l i nes del i neat ed i n therepor t of i t s Sel ect Panel on Weat her Modi f i cat i on of
the same date.
You are request ed to f ormul at e t hi s programw t h suchassi st ance as you may r equest f romany or al l I CASmembers. You are speci f i cal l y provi ded the assi st anceof a qual i f i ed weat her modi f i cat i on sci ent i st f r omeachof the f ol l ow ng agenci es: ESSA, Bureau of Recl amat i on,NSF, Depart ment of Agr i cul t ure.YOU are request ed to provi de at l east t hese t hr ee el ement si n the Program
1. Anal ysi s of a maj or program of weat her modi f i cat i onf or t he needed expansi on of act i vi t y t oward t he goal s off og and cl oud di ssi pat i on, preci pi t at i on modi f i cat i on,et c. as del i neat ed i n t he Sel ect Panel Repor t and towardsuch ot her goal s as you may want t o speci f y.
2.i ng act i vi t i es as comput er s, mobi l e f aci l i t i es, etc.
Anal ysi s of the techni ques t o be used and such support -
3 . Def i ni t i on of what agenci es shoul d car ry out t he
act i vi t i es recommended, f i r st as to r esponsi bi l i t y f or t heprogram (budget support ) , and second as t o actual l y con-duct i ng the act i vi t y. I f you ar e unabl e t o recommendspeci f i c al l ocat i on of responsi bi l i t y your recommendat i onsf or t he sol ut i on of t he probl em shoul d be i ncl uded.
I believe the following documents provide substantivebackground information that would assist you. Copies
are enclosed.
ICAS Memo to Dr. Hornig dated March 11,. 1 9 6 6S. 2 9 1 6 as amended May 12, 1 9 6 6BOB Circular A - 6 2 dated November 13 , 1 9 6 3The Federal Plan f o r Met orological Services
8. U. S . Dept. of Agr i cul t ur e Forest Servi ce A SUMMARY OFPROJ ECT SKYFI RE dated Sept ember 1, 1966, transmtted byl et t er t o Cr ocker f r omJ . S. Bar r ows, Di r ect or , For est
Fi r e Research, dat ed Sept ember 6 , 1966
DEPARTMENT OF I NTERI OR
9. WATER RESOURCES I N THE S K Y , St ewart L. Udal l , Bul l et i n
Amer i can Met eor ol ogi cal Soci et y, Vol 47, No. 4 , Apr i l1966, pg 275-278 ( Speech present ed at t he 46th AnnualMeet i ng of t he AMs, Eveni ng Banquet , 26 J anuar y 1966,
Denver , Col or ado)
10. Present at i on t o I CAS on May 13, 1966, PLANS FOR THE DEPART-MENT OF THE I NTERI OR' S ATMOSPHERI C WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM
11. Dept. of I nt er i or, Manpower Requi rement s and Cost Est i -mates ( f r omSept 1966 Pl an Repor t )
12. Est i mat es of Faci l i t i es and Maj or Equi pment and Ser vi cesi n suppor t of t he Dept , of I nter i or ' s Pr ogr amrecei ved
16 August 1966
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
13.
14 .
1 5.
Dr af t SUMMARY OF I NFORMATZON RELATED TO MR . CROCKER FROM
FERGUSON HALL dated August 26, 1966, r egardi ng ESSA man-power requi r ement s rel at ed to Weather Modi f i cat i on
ESSA Weather Modi f i cat i on Progr amRevi ew f or Newel 1 onJ une 2 8 , 1966
Out l i ne of A PROPOSED FI VE- YEAR PLAN I N WEATHER MODI -
FI CATI ON, U S. Depar t ment of Commer ce, Envi r onmental
Sci ence Ser vi ces Adm ni st rat i on, Apr i l 1966; w t h
ATTACHMENT: FI SCAL AND MANPOWER REQUI REMENTS w t hAddendumFI SCAL AND MANPOWER DATA FOR 1966 AND 1967
ESSA Weat her Modi f i cat i on Pr ogr amSchedul e, Fi scal
Present at i on by t he Deput y Feder al Coordi nat orf or Met eorol ogi cal Ser vi ces & Support i ng Research( Moore)
THE FEDERAL PLAN FOR METEOROLOGI CAL SERVI CES ANDSUPPORTI NG RESEARCH, FI SCAL YEAR 1967, U.S.
Depart ment of Commerce, Envi r onment al Sci enceSer vi ces Adm ni st r at i on, Of f i ce of FederalCoordi nat or f or Met eor ol ogi cal Servi ces andSupport i ng Research
Summary papers of ESSA present at i ons at t he WeatherModi f i cat i on Revi ew meet i ng, GSFC, August 17, 1966
NATI ONAL SCI ENCE FOUNDATI ON
19 . Report of t he Speci al Comm ssi on on Weather Modi f i ca-
t i on, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on, WEATHER AND CLI MATE
MODI FI CATI ON, Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-3, t ransmt t ed t oNSF December 20, 1965
20. Repor t t o t he Speci al Comm ssi on on Weat her Modi f i cat i on,
Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on, WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON LAWCONTROLS, OPERATI ONS, Publ i cat i on No. NSF 66-7 (no date)
21. Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on Act of 1950 ( PL 507-81st
Congress) As Amended Through August 15, 1963 , and asModi f i ed by Reorgani zat i on Pl an No. 2 of 1962, Ef f ec-t i ve J une 8 , 1962
22. Fi r st Annual Repor t , 1959, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 60-24
23. Second Annual Repor t , 1960, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 61-30
24. Thi rd Annual Report , 1961, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
Four t h Annual Report , 1962, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 63-29
Fi f t h Annual Repor t , 1963, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 64-19
Si xt h Annual Repor t , 1964, Nat i onal Sci ence FouI . , ~+U,,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 65-9
Sevent h Annual Repor t , 1965, Nat i onal Sci ence Foundat i on,
WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, NSF 66-4
Proceedi ngs of THE SEVENTH I NTERAGENCY CONFERENCE ONWEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, Sept ember 30 - Oct ober 1, 1965,
Bi g Meadows Lodge, Skyl i ne Dr i ve, Shenandoah Nat i onalPar k, Vi r gi ni a
Repor t of t he FI RST NATI ONAL SYMPOSI UMON HAIL SUPPRES-
SI ON. Di l l on, Col or ado, October 14-15, 1965
HUMAN DI MENSI ONS OF WEATHER MODI FI CATI ON, W R. Der r i ckSewel l ( Ed) , U of Chi cago, Dept of Geogr aphy, Res Paper
No. 105, 1966 ( Papers prepared i n connect i on wi t h aSymposi umon t he Economc and Soci al Aspect s of WeatherModi f i cat i on whi ch was hel d at NCAR i n Boul der , Col or ado,
f romJ ul y 1-3, 1965, under NSF sponsorshi p)
PRESENT PROGRAMAND FUTURE PLANS OF THE NATI ONAL SCI ENCE
FOUNDATI ON I N WEATHER A N D CLI MATE MODI FI CATI ON RESEARCH,
Revi sed J une 27, 1966
Let t er t o Dr . Newel 1 f romP. H Wq’ ckof f , dat ed J une 28,
1966, r egardi ng t he NSF Weat her Modi f i cat i on Progr amwi t h encl osur e, “Cr i t i que by Pr esent er ”