Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST) Panel 3 Technical Risks and Challenges Bill Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST)

Panel 3

Technical Risks and Challenges

Bill Mahoney

National Center for Atmospheric Research

WeatherDiagnoses &

Forecasts

DecisionSupport System

WeatherData

Acquisition

DOTOperations

Data Acquisition

Technical Risks & Challenges

WIST

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

• The weather information requirements of thesurface transportation community are highlyspecialized.

• The weather community has not traditionallybeen focused to serve surface transportationneeds.

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

• The transportation community requires: - Very high resolution information (misoscale = 40 m to 4 km)

- Rapid updates (minutes to hours)

- Long lead time forecasts (at least 48 hours)

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

• The transportation community also requires:

- Surface information (0 to 2 m AGL)

- Probability metrics for meteorological parameters

“What is the probability of receiving 3 inches of snow between mile marker x and y from 6:00 to 9:00 am tomorrow?”

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

• Scientific challenges:

- Boundary layer meteorology (0 to 2 m AGL)

- Thermodynamics (heat flux, mixing, etc.)

- Probability & Statistics

- Numerical modeling (meso- to misoscale)

- Verification (with limited verification data)

- Quality control of non-standard data

Weather Diagnoses & Forecasts

• If the weather information utilized by a DSSIs not sufficiently accurate, then the stakeholderswill ignore DSS guidance.

• There are no off-the-shelf plug and play weathercapabilities that can fully address the needsof the surface transportation community;however, there are several emerging technologiesthat are likely to provide benefits.

Weather Data Acquisition

• Access to surface observational data iscritical as it provides input to forecast systemsand is necessary for forecast verification.

• Without these data, there is a significant risk that the forecast output will be poor.

• There is also a risk associated with usingnon-traditional data. Quality control issuesmust be addressed.

DOT Operations & Data Acquisition

• Access to live DOT operations data is critical as it provides input to DSS systems.

• Required DOT data includes:

- Traffic (volume, speed) - Staff availability

- Road surface condition - Work schedules

- Friction - Equipment

- Road subsurface conditions - Treatment type

- Chemical concentrations - Treatment location

- Level of service - Beat completed

DOT Operations & Data Acquisition

• A DSS with even limited utility will requirelive access to these kind of data.

• The technology and resources requiredto develop and maintain a dynamic DOT data base cannot be underestimated.

• There are several risks associated withmanaging operational data, particularly whendata become old or invalid.

Decision Support System (DSS)

• The STWDSR process clearly illustrates thatthe user community is large and diverse.

• There is a risk associated with the assumptionthat a specific DSS solution will be broadly applicable across the surface transportationcommunity.

Decision Support System (DSS)

• Nearly every road maintenance district hasa unique operation. In addition, individuals withindistricts have unique needs.

• There is no “one-size-fits-all” DSS solution. Thereare significant human factor issues associatedwith DSS development that need to be addressed.

• There is also a risk that users will reject a DSS that makes too many decisions for them.

Decision Support System (DSS)

• A “bottoms-up” rather than a “tops-down”approach should be used for DSS systemdevelopment.

• Local DOT organizations need to determinethe level of sophistication that is requiredfor their specific DSS application.

• The FAA has and continues to experience manyof these challenges in their automation programs.FAA experiences should be considered.

Summary

There are numerous challenges associated withthe WIST-DSS initiative; however, scientificand engineering solutions are coming to fruitionthat, given timeand appropriateresources,are likely toproducesignificantbenefits to thesurfacetransportationcommunity.

Summary (cont.)

A long term, multifaceted WIST R & D program should be established in order to properlyaddress user needs and to extract thescientific and technicalcapabilities that residein organizations (government andprivate) across the country.