Weather information and surface Weather information and surface transportation in Canada: transportation in Canada: The long and winding road The long and winding road Brian Mills Brian Mills 1,2 1,2 , Jean Andrey , Jean Andrey 2 2 , Susan Tighe , Susan Tighe 3 3 , and , and Sarah Baiz Sarah Baiz 3 3 1 Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada ([email protected]) ([email protected]) 2 Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo Waterloo 3 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo
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Weather information and surface transportation in Canada: The long and winding road
Weather information and surface transportation in Canada: The long and winding road. Brian Mills 1,2 , Jean Andrey 2 , Susan Tighe 3 , and Sarah Baiz 3 1 Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada ([email protected]) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Weather information and surface Weather information and surface transportation in Canada: transportation in Canada: The long and winding roadThe long and winding road
Brian MillsBrian Mills1,21,2, Jean Andrey, Jean Andrey22, Susan Tighe, Susan Tighe33, and Sarah Baiz, and Sarah Baiz33
11Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada ([email protected])Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada ([email protected])
22Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of WaterlooDepartment of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Waterloo
33Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WaterlooDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo
IntroductionIntroduction
Impressive
Gains in
Predictability
PDP complain about process
TIGGE thought
responsible
DAOS target of unruly
observers
Shortage of planes blamed
on Thorpex campaigners
• ““Pushing the Product”Pushing the Product”
• What happens after the What happens after the
flush?flush?
• The “Bottom-up” perspective The “Bottom-up” perspective
is a necessary complement if is a necessary complement if
not starting pointnot starting point
• A few examples from road A few examples from road
transport transport
IntroductionIntroduction
• Economic and social activities in Canada are highly dependent on Economic and social activities in Canada are highly dependent on
road surface transportation—by far the most important mode road surface transportation—by far the most important mode
Value of Canada-U.S. Trade by Mode (2007)Total Trade (CA$569,821 million)
Road60%
Rail17%
Marine4%
Air5%
Other14%
Source: Transport Canada 2008
IntroductionIntroduction
• Maintaining the mobility afforded by the highway system without Maintaining the mobility afforded by the highway system without
compromising safety or environmental quality requires substantive compromising safety or environmental quality requires substantive
investments—many of which are weather-related investments—many of which are weather-related
Design, construction and maintenance of infrastructureDesign, construction and maintenance of infrastructure
OperationsOperations
EnvironmentalEnvironmental
Safety interventionsSafety interventions
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
Mill
ion
s C
A$
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
Fiscal Year
Road Transportation Expenditures by Level of Government
Where: i Number of days after the day indexed as day i = 0i = 0 Day on which TAir first falls below 0ºC io Day of transition from Freezing to Thawing seasonFDi Depth of frost on day (cm)TDi Depth of thaw on day (cm)FIi Freezing Index value on day (in ºC -days)TIi Thawing Index value on day (in ºC -days)
Future ResearchFuture Research
• Repeat analysis and refine models using additional winter seasons Repeat analysis and refine models using additional winter seasons
and locationsand locations
• Develop a damage model and SLR/WWP decision experiment using Develop a damage model and SLR/WWP decision experiment using
weather forecast data. Evaluate social costs and benefits as a weather forecast data. Evaluate social costs and benefits as a
function of accuracy. function of accuracy.
Case 3: Impacts of climate change on Case 3: Impacts of climate change on pavement infrastructurepavement infrastructure
• Current and past pavement designs generally assume a static climate Current and past pavement designs generally assume a static climate
whose variability can be adequately determined from records of weather whose variability can be adequately determined from records of weather
conditions which normally span less than 30 years and often less than 10 conditions which normally span less than 30 years and often less than 10
yearsyears
• Anthropogenic climate change challenges this assumption and raises the Anthropogenic climate change challenges this assumption and raises the
possibility that the frequency, duration or severity of thermal cracking, possibility that the frequency, duration or severity of thermal cracking,
rutting, frost heave and thaw weakening may be altered leading to shifts in rutting, frost heave and thaw weakening may be altered leading to shifts in
pavement deterioration rates if corrective actions are not takenpavement deterioration rates if corrective actions are not taken
MethodMethod
• Mid-century surface temperature and precipitation scenarios were Mid-century surface temperature and precipitation scenarios were
developed by statistically downscaling output from the CGCM2A2x developed by statistically downscaling output from the CGCM2A2x
and HadCM3B21 climate experiments for 17 Canadian sitesand HadCM3B21 climate experiments for 17 Canadian sites
• Scenarios were applied to 2 deterioration-relevant indicators: 1) Scenarios were applied to 2 deterioration-relevant indicators: 1)
Performance Grade Asphalt Cement (PGAC) high and low Performance Grade Asphalt Cement (PGAC) high and low
temperature threshold criteria, and 2) Freeze-thaw indicestemperature threshold criteria, and 2) Freeze-thaw indices
• Scenarios were applied at 6 sites using the Mechanistic-Empirical Scenarios were applied at 6 sites using the Mechanistic-Empirical
Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) model which simulates life cycle Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) model which simulates life cycle
deterioration (developed by the U.S. NCHRP and AASHTO) deterioration (developed by the U.S. NCHRP and AASHTO)
ResultsResults
• Indicator analysis suggests that low temperature cracking will Indicator analysis suggests that low temperature cracking will
become less problematic; structures will freeze later and thaw become less problematic; structures will freeze later and thaw
earlier with correspondingly shorter freeze season lengths; and earlier with correspondingly shorter freeze season lengths; and
higher extreme in-service pavement temperatures will raise the higher extreme in-service pavement temperatures will raise the
• MEPDG analysis suggests that rutting (AC and total) and cracking MEPDG analysis suggests that rutting (AC and total) and cracking
(longitudinal and alligator) issues will be exacerbated by climate change(longitudinal and alligator) issues will be exacerbated by climate change
• Maintenance, rehabilitation or reconstruction will be required earlier in the Maintenance, rehabilitation or reconstruction will be required earlier in the
design life design life
• Absolute impacts of climate change are closely associated with the Absolute impacts of climate change are closely associated with the
underlying structural, material, and traffic characteristics of a particular site underlying structural, material, and traffic characteristics of a particular site
thus generalizations must be considered with caution. thus generalizations must be considered with caution.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109
121
133
145
157
169
181
193
205
217
229
Month
AC
Ru
ttin
g (
mm
)
Baseline CGCM2A2x scenario HadCM3B21 scenario
Future ResearchFuture Research
• Repeat MEPDG analysis using the latest AR4 climate change Repeat MEPDG analysis using the latest AR4 climate change
scenarios, more sophisticated downscaling, and a greater range of scenarios, more sophisticated downscaling, and a greater range of
pavement structures and vehicle loadspavement structures and vehicle loads
• Incorporate municipal distress data and a ravelling (pothole) Incorporate municipal distress data and a ravelling (pothole)
indicator into the analysisindicator into the analysis
• Examine utility of monthly-seasonal scale forecastsExamine utility of monthly-seasonal scale forecasts
Further ReadingFurther Reading
Andrey, J, B. Mills, D. Unrau, M. Christie and S. Michaels 2005. Toward a National Andrey, J, B. Mills, D. Unrau, M. Christie and S. Michaels 2005. Toward a National
Assessment of the Travel Risks Associated with Inclement Weather, ICLR Paper Assessment of the Travel Risks Associated with Inclement Weather, ICLR Paper
Series, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, London, Ontario. 35 pp. Series, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, London, Ontario. 35 pp.
Baiz, S., S. Tighe, C.T. Haas, B. Mills, and M. Perchanok, 2008. Development of frost and Baiz, S., S. Tighe, C.T. Haas, B. Mills, and M. Perchanok, 2008. Development of frost and
thaw depth predictors for decision making about variable load restrictions, thaw depth predictors for decision making about variable load restrictions,
Transportation Research Record, 2053:1-8. Transportation Research Record, 2053:1-8.
Mills, B., S.L. Tighe, J. Andrey, J.T. Smith, and K. Huen, 2009. Climate change implications Mills, B., S.L. Tighe, J. Andrey, J.T. Smith, and K. Huen, 2009. Climate change implications
for flexible pavement design and performance in southern Canada, Journal of for flexible pavement design and performance in southern Canada, Journal of