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The History of Weather Forecasting
WEATHER
FORECASTINGPrepared by:
SAYSON, Noah Justine C.
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WHAT
DO WE
MEAN BY
WEATHER?
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What do we mean by weather?
Weather is defined as the hour-by-
hour variations in the atmosphericconditions experienced at a certain
place.
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WHAT
DO WE
MEAN BY
WEATHER
FORECASTING?
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What do we mean by weather
forecasting?
Weather forecasting is the application of
science and technology to predict the state of
the atmosphere for a future time and a given
location.
In meteorology, it is the statement of the
expected weather conditions in a given region
over a period of from one hour into few days inadvance.
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In 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted the weatherfrom cloud patterns as well as astrology.
In about 340 BC, Aristotle described weather
patterns in Meteorologica. Later, Theophrastus compiled a book on weather
forecasting, called the Book of Signs.
Chinese weather prediction lore extends at leastas far back as 300 BC which was also around thesame time ancient Indian astronomers developedweather-prediction methods.
History of Weather Forecasting
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In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya's Nabatean Agriculture
discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric
changes and signs from the planetary astral
alterations; signs of rain based on observation ofthe lunar phases; and weather forecasts based on
the movement of winds.
Ancient weather forecasting methods usuallyrelied on observed patterns of events, also termed
pattern recognition.
History of Weather Forecasting
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In 1790, the barometer, thermometer,
anemometer, and hygrometer have been invented.
Extensive observations of the upper atmosphere
were made duringWorld War I with the use of
airplanes, air balloons and radiosonde.
Rockets and artifictial satellites were most helpful
for gathering atmospheric data duringWorld WarII.
History of Weather Forecasting
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The telegraph (1835)
allowed reports of weather
conditions from a wide areato be received almost
instantaneously by the
late 1840s.
Weather map of Europe, 10 December 1887
History of Weather Forecasting
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The two men most credited with the birth offorecasting as a science were Francis Beaufort(remembered chiefly for the Beaufort scale) and
his protg Robert Fitzroy (developer of the Fitzroybarometer). Their work formed the basis for all oftoday's weather forecasting knowledge.
A standard vocabulary of describing clouds
necessary to convey information accurately wasachieved by means of a series of classificationsand, in the 1890s, by pictorial cloud atlases.
History of Weather Forecasting
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Great progress was made in the science ofmeteorology during the 20th century. Thepossibility of numerical weather prediction wasproposed by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922,thoughcomputers did not exist to complete the vastnumber of calculations required to produce aforecast before the event had occurred.
Practical use of numerical weather prediction
began in 1955,spurred by the development ofprogrammable electronic computers.
In the United States, the first public radio forecastswere made in 1923 by E. B. Rideout, on WEEI in
the Boston area.
History of Weather Forecasting
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Television forecasts followed with Jimmie Fidler in
Cincinnati in 1940 or 1947 on the DuMont
Television Network.
The Weather Channel is a 24-hour cable network
that began broadcasting in May 1982.
History of Weather Forecasting
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All About Weather Forecasting
Once an all-human endeavor based mainly uponchanges in barometric pressure, current weatherconditions, and sky condition, forecast models arenow used to determine future conditions.
The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, themassive computational power required to solvethe equations that describe the atmosphere, errorinvolved in measuring the initial conditions, and an
incomplete understanding of atmosphericprocesses mean that forecasts become lessaccurate as the difference in current time and thetime for which the forecast is being made (therange of the forecast) increases.
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Each country has an agency of releasing of theweather forecast. Some are as follows:
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical,
Astronomical Services Administration Philippines esp. Weather Bureau
U.K. Meteorological Office United Kingdom
National Aeronautics and Space Administration U.S.A.
At an international level, forecasting iscoordinated by World Meteorological Organization(WMO).
All About Weather Forecasting
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Observation This involve round the clockgathering of meteorological data by land stations,weather ships, radiosondes and satellites.
Analysis This involves the coordinating weatherinformation by the appropriate agencies of eachcountry and plotting them on weather maps; theseare also called synoptic charts. (In this case,
synoptic means displaying conditions of theatmosphere or weather that exist simultaneouslyover a wide area.)
3 main stages involve in Weather Forecasting:
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Forecasting This involves making predictions
of future weather patterns. It may be done by
applying the forecasters experience of the
evolution of past weather patterns to the
current set of data, or it may be on
mathematical computations.
3 main stages involve in Weather Forecasting:
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HOW
MODELS
CREATES
FORECAST?
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Data Collection
- included in the pieces of data being collected
are the surface weather observations of
atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind
speed and direction, humidity and
precipitation level.
How models create forecasts?
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Data Assimilation and Analysis
- information gained from the observations is
used in conjunction with a numerical models
most recent forecast for the time that
observations were made, since this contains
information from previous observations. This
is used to produce a meteorological analysisthat shows the models estimate of the
current state of temperature.
How models create forecasts?
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Numerical Weather Prediction
- takes analysis as the starting point and
evolves the state of the atmosphere forward
in time using physics and fluid dynamics. The
complicated equations which govern how the
state of a fluid changes with time require
supercomputers to solve them.- The output from the model provides the basis
of the weather forecast.
How models create forecasts?
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Model Output Post Processing
- The raw output is often modified before being
presented as the forecast.
- This can be in the form of statistical
techniques to remove known biases in the
model, or of adjustment to take into
account consensus among othernumerical weather forecasts.
How models create forecasts?
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TECHNIQUES
USED IN
WEATHER
FORECASTING
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Persistence
- This is the simplest method of forecastingthe weather relies upon todays conditions to
forecast the conditions tomorrow. Use of a Barometer
- The barometric pressure tendency (thechange of temperature over time) has beenused in forecasting the weather since the late19th century.
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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- The larger the change in pressure, esp. if
more the 3.5 hPa, the larger the change in
weater can be expected.
- If the pressure drop is rapid, a low pressure
system is approaching, and there is a greater
chance of rain. Rapid pressure rises are
associated with improving weather conditions,such as clearing skies.
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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Looking at the sky
- Along with pressure tendency, use of the sky
condition is one of the most important weather
parameters that can be used to forecast
weather in mountainous areas.
Nowcasting
- Forecasting of the weather within the next sixhours.
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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Mares tail shows moisture at high altitude, signalingthe later arrival of wet weather.
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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Use of forecast models
- Using a consensus of forecast models, as wellas ensemble members of the various models,
can help reduce forecast error. Analog technique
- a complex way of making a forecast, requiringthe forecaster to remember a previousweather event which is expected to bemimicked by an upcoming event
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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An example of 500 mbar geopotential height
prediction from a numerical weather prediction model.
What techniques are used in
Forecasting?
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FORECASTING EXPERIENCE
(SAMPLE)
Observation Forecast Reason
NightCooler
than day
Ground Cools
(Outgoing Longwave Radiation> Incoming Shortwave
Radiation +Incoming Longwave Radiation)
Clear SkyCool
Evening
The atmosphere is mostly transparent to the outgoing
longwave radiation.
Calm Winds
Cool
Evening
Little mixing of air from aloft keeps the air close to the
ground cooler.
Low
Humidity
Cool
Evening
The lack of moisture will mean less heat will be reradiated
back to earth.
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ELEMENTS
OF
WEATHER
AND
CLIMATE
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Temperature - hotness or coldness of a body or
environment
Pressure amount of force acting per unit area
Wind speed
Wind direction
Humidity amount of water vapor in the air
Clouds
Elements of Weather and Climate
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Precipitation
Visibility greatest distance under given weather
conditions which it is possible to see without
instrumental assisstance
Elements of Weather and Climate
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DIFFERENT
MODEL
FORECAST
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Analog model
Analytical model
Conceptual model
Continuous model
Deterministic model
Empirical model
Explicit model
Implicit model
Mass balance model
Numerical model
One-dimensional model
Pseudo-deterministic
model
Stochastic
mathematical model
Two-dimensional model
What forecast models are used in Forecasting?
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VARIOUS WEATHER MAPS AND MODELS
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WHY IS
WEATHER
FORECASTING
IMPORTANT?
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WHY STUDY WEATHER?(ANDREA DISCOVERS PETES MOTIVATION)
Foxtrot Comic Strip
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Public uses. Most end users of forecasts are
members of the general public.
Severe weather alerts and advisories. A major part
of modern weather forecasting is the severe
weather alerts and advisories which the national
weather services issue in the case that severe or
hazardous weather is expected. This is done toprotect life and property.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Modern weather
predictions aid in
timely evacuationsand potentially save
lives and property
damage.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Public uses. Most end users of forecasts aremembers of the general public.
Severe weather alerts and advisories. A major partof modern weather forecasting is the severeweather alerts and advisories which the nationalweather services issue in the case that severe orhazardous weather is expected. This is done toprotect life and property.
Air traffic. Because the aviation industry isespecially sensitive to the weather, accurateweather forecasting is essential.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Ash cloud from the
2008 eruption of
Chaitn volcanostretching across
Patagonia from the
Pacific to theAtlantic Ocean.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Marine. Commercial and recreational use of
waterways can be limited significantly by wind
direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights,
tides, and precipitation. Agriculture. Farmers rely on weather forecasts to
decide what work to do on any particular day.
Forestry.Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations
and humidity is essential for preventing and
controlling wildfires. Conditions for the development
of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting
the evolution of weather, too.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Utility companies. Electricity and gas companies
rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand
which can be strongly affected by the weather.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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An air handling unit
is used for the
heating andcooling
of air in a central
location.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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Utility companies. Electricity and gas companiesrely on weather forecasts to anticipate demandwhich can be strongly affected by the weather.
Private sector. Increasingly, private companies payfor weather forecasts tailored to their needs sothat they can increase their profits or avoid largelosses.
Military applications. Similarly to the private sector,military weather forecasters present weatherconditions to the war fighter community.
Why is weather forecasting important?
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THANK
YOUFOR
LISTENING!!!