Weather Forecast Improvements at the UK Met Office: Responding to the Big Data Challenge Vicky Pope Input from Rich Carne, Alex Longden, Derrick Ryall January 2017
Weather Forecast Improvements at the UK Met Office: Responding to the Big Data Challenge
Vicky Pope
Input from Rich Carne, Alex Longden, Derrick Ryall
January 2017
Weather Information Value Chain
Monitor &
Observe
Model & Forecast
InterpretEconomic
ValueDecision making
Produce
© Crown copyright Met Office
Model and observations
improvements
Better use of observations
Biggest improvement in a decade
Bigger UK domain
Extend runs to 5 days
Improved forecasts of
showers
Global model
resolution increase to
10km
New UK hourly
nowcasts
Increased vertical
resolution
Couple atmosphere and ocean
Better convection
Run UK ensembles to
5 days
New radar network
Precipitation type
Doppler winds
Increased resolution
March 2016November
2016Spring 2017 2018-19Autumn 20172017
Improved showers
Monitor &
Observe
Model & Forecast
1.2
Pflo
ps
8 Pflops 16 Pflops
© Crown copyright Met Office
Content and services
• Data
• Gridded forecast data
• Spot data
• Observations
• Warnings and Guidance
• National Severe Weather Warnings
• Guidance
• Scripts
• Forecaster/Meteorologist briefings
• Verbal and web
24/7 support
Interpret
© Crown copyright Met Office
Services for the Information
Economy - INSPIRE
Discovery
View
Download
Transform
Invoke
Data downloaded as is
Catalogue
Remote compute
Reuse for interoperability
Visualisations
Produce
© Crown copyright Met Office
ProduceNew ways of working
Weather Information Value Chain
Monitor &
Observe
Model & Forecast
InterpretEconomic
ValueDecision making
Produce
WMO Interoperability
Met Service providers
© Crown copyright Met Office
Charge for
service and
content
Data: Open & free
Charge for
data
Data: Open & available
Produce
Changes
in the
information
economy
© Crown copyright Met Office
Public Weather
Service reach
Branded reach
(trusted information
provider)
Drive innovation
Service provider
arrangement
Revenue to offset cost to tax payer and
reinvest
Social and economic benefit for
UK economy
Met Office
drivers
Met Office
DWDMeteo
FNWS
Google Yahoo Amazon BA
Authoritative Warnings
Weather Forecast Services
Public
?Divergence of information
Open Weather - Purpose
• Maintaining the authoritative voice of NMSs
• Ensuring consistency between Warnings and forecast
• Supporting the global weather market
• Allowing seamless access to global weather from multiple NMS providers
Contextual Diagram
Met Office
DWDMeteo
FNWS
Other NMSs
Common Interfaces
Google Yahoo Amazon Xn...
Global AggregatorsCommercial partnersPublic facing organisations
Common service layer
Standard Data Provision
Weather Forecast Improvements at the UK Met Office: Responding to the Big Data Challenge
Vicky Pope
January 2017