Sudhiani Pratiwi Deputy Director for Climate Change and Environmental Quality Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) Paris, November 28 th 2018 Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Eighth Annual Partnership Meeting Connection of NCA to Midterm Development Plan (NDP-Low carbon development Plan) 1
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Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services ......2014, 2016 SEEA standard using SWAT model Water supply and Water use Citarum Watershed . Land Cover Accounts Drafts
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Sudhiani Pratiwi Deputy Director for Climate Change and Environmental Quality
Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) Paris, November 28th 2018
Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Eighth Annual Partnership Meeting
Connection of NCA to Midterm Development Plan (NDP-Low carbon development Plan)
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Overview of the WAVES Program in Indonesia Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES)
To provide support on data management and account compilation. • Macro environmental-economic indicators • Measure and patterns of land cover and land use • Introduction of water in the macroeconomic context at
watershed level • Relevance of measuring ecosystem services and assets in
peatlands Further enhancement and expansion of the existing natural capital accounts built under the SISNERLING umbrella. • SISNERLING assessment and recommendations for
integration of standard approaches • Long term roadmap for SISNERLING implementation
To guarantee proper insertion of natural capital concepts in the policy dialogue of the country (Bappenas) Integration of macroeconomic indicators in policy
frameworks (In progress) Informing natural capital conceptual approach in
the carrying capacity module, BAPPENAS Environmental Directorate (In progress)
Developing data protocol to govern official data exchange mechanism among data custodian and key agencies to support SEEA based policy analysis (in progress)
This block serves as a catalyzer for the whole WAVES program. The aim will be to implement a strong communication and engagement strategy .
Three blocks of activities:
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Water account 2014, 2016 SEEA standard using SWAT model Water supply and Water use Citarum Watershed
Land Cover Accounts Drafts published by BPS Time trend 1990-2015 per 5 years Forests, scrubs, plantations, shrubs, swamps – 23
classes All of Indonesia
Land Extent Accounts Snapshot 2017, 2015 Beyond land cover maps extent in Ha
(spatially explicit) of – perennial crops – acacia, oil palm, rubber, coffee, banana, eucalyptus, forests, water
Sumatra (ready) and Kalimantan
Peat Accounts Time period cover: 1990-2015 Cover, extent and Ecosystem Services monetized
for– Forest products – timber and biomass, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, commodities – plantation and paddy
Sumatra and Kalimantan
Wealth account 1995-2014 Links to macroeconomic framework Natural capital – cropland, energy, forests
and protected areas, metals, pasture land Feeds into wealth (
human+produced+natural) capital All of Indonesia
WAVES ACTIVITY PROGRESS UPDATE: FINDINGS ON DATA BLOCK To be linked into the system dynamic model exercise, including to provide its policy narrative
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REPUBLIK INDONESIA
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Industry Energy Waste Land-based Transportation Agriculture
Presidential Regulation No. 61/2011, supported by 34 Provincial Governments
Indonesia’s Commitment on Reducing GHG Emission
Involve related ministries, local governments, and other institutions
through coordination the implementation and reporting on activity to reduce the
GHG emission 13,47% 26%
*progress achievement of GHG emission reduction
2010 2016 2020
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
INTEGRATION OF THE NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INTO THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
INDEX RESILIENCE
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Climate Projection
Potential Hazard
Fishing Ground Zone
Health Landslide
Drought
Flood
Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability
National Policy and Strategy (Spatial)
Sectoral Strategies
Action Plans
Budgeting
RPJMN 2020-2024
RAN-API
NAPs
Atmosferik Ocean
Energy Industry
Agriculture Forestry
Settlement Fishery Etc.
Water
Emission
Land Use
+ IKLH
Capacity
Carrying Capacity
Impact/ Pressure
Availability
Carrying Capacity Inter-related Human Activities and Natural Capital Accounting
Low Carbon Development plan is a set of inclusive development planning policies and low-carbon investment strategies for the RPJMN 2020-2024 and the Roadmap of SDG 2030 that encourage Indonesia to reduce the intensity of emissions and GHG Emissions
Marine
Biodiversity
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
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Fishing
Water quality
Forest
Agriculture
Population
Tourism
Biodiversity
Employment
Culture, education
GDP
Accounting for Natural Capital in the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Indonesia: Carrying Capacity in the IV2045 Model
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING Reflecting Environment variables and externalities for Midterm Development Plan (RPJMN)
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
GDP growth rate - with resource constraint (potential and actual)
Baseline NO EXTERNALITIES Baseline Projection Bappenas
Availability of Natural
Resources
Real Level of GDP growth
Note: Temporary simulation results and validation will be carried out
The limitations of natural resources (depletion of Water, Energy and Forests) are projected to hamper economic growth if there is no intervention in development policies that pro-carrying capacity
GDP Growth with Natural Resources Limitations
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Projection: Projection of Deputy of Economy Bappenas Potential No Externality: Indonesian Simulation of IV2045 with unlimited resources Baseline No Externality: Indonesian Simulation of IV2045 no externalities, with resource scarcity
Externalities
Resource scarcity
WAVES ACTIVITY PROGRESS UPDATE: FINDINGS ON PEAT ACCOUNTs
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Biodiversity- protected habitat worth ~$1B/ year
Carbon worth ~ $130M/ year Carbon stock & Carbon emissions from peat oxidation
Biomass production for pulp (1000 t/year)Oil palm production (1000 t/year)
ES specification (unit)
Peatland Physical value of ES
Draft preliminary accounts Peat in Sumatra and Kalimantan publication by BPS forthcoming
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1990 1996 2000 2006 2009 2015
Extent account for peatlands in Sumatra (1000ha)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1996 2000 2006 2009 2015
Extent account for peatlands in Kalimantan (1000ha)
Undisturbed forest Disturbed forest Degraded peatlandBare ground Forest plantation Perennial cropsDry agricultural land Paddy field Others
Integration of macroeconomic indicators in policy frameworks Reflecting Environment variables and externalities for Midterm Development Plan (RPJMN)
• There has been growing interest from Macroeconomic Directorate and Environmental Directorate in Bappenas to assess their sustainability macroeconomic-model for the Midterm Development Plan (RPJMN)
• A knowledge sharing had been conducted on how adjusted macroeconomic indicators, wealth indicators, adjusted fiscal measures and public sector balance sheet are calculated and used.
• Further discussions were initiated on how
Environmental Accounts and Adjusted Net Savings could be integrated in ongoing modeling exercises in support of the preparation of the RPJMN.
Discussion on Natural Capital Accounting, Adjusted Macroeconomic Indicators, Comprehensive Wealth
Fiscal Measures and Public Sector Balance Sheet on 29-30 October 2018
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Technical Review for NCA Accounts Have been Conducted The final report will be incorporated into the SISNERLING report
Some findings for technical review were addressed:
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National Technical review on 4-5 September 2018. On the picture Mrs. Sri Soelistyawati, Deputy for Balance
Sheet and Statistical Analysis, opening the event
Land Cover and Extent Accounts To incorporate the recent 2017 Ministry of Environment and Forestry land
map This could provide additional elements to assess the trade-off between
development and environmental objectives as the process of landscape transformation progresses as well as its economic connection.
Peat Account To include hydrological services to understand what it would take to restore
ecosystems and valuation ecosystem of the natural forests/peatland includes natural disaster avoidance.
To discuss how to move from potential to actual use so it can be used to to inform decision making at the national or sub-national level
Water account Several terminologies and methodologies were discussed and elaborated during the review, such
as the measurement on water quality and its parameters, the context and approaches of the study, the hydrological model (SWAT), etc, which later will be refined according to the inputs.
The SEEA offers a holistic approach, so all the economic activities should be included in the standard tables; such as by including ISIC 05-09 and 36-96