We Select Only the Top 100% of High School Graduating Class Jing Luan, Ph.D. Cabrillo College Presentation at Four College Region Trustees Meeting (Hartnell,

We Select Only the Top 100% of High School Graduating Class

Jing Luan, Ph.D.Cabrillo College

Presentation at Four College Region Trustees Meeting(Hartnell, Cabrillo, Gavilan & MPC) April 28, 2005

-It Takes A Village to Secure the Future of Community Colleges

Headlines

Victims of Our Own Wealth

• Global Trends: Knowledge shift lessens demands for science, high tech courses in the U.S. Culture boom results in our willingness to pay for service and knowledge.

• National Trends: Pre-2000, births decline resulted in elementary school closures/consolidations nationwide and high schools will follow suit. (*1)

• California Trends: Since 1992, for every 1% enrollment increase in community colleges, funding increased by 5.4%. System funding for community colleges was $4.9B in 2004 (*2). If DOF or AMBAG projections of annual 1.5% population growth hold, by 2015, it will be $10B (*2,4). Pressure is on for creative budgetary thinking and share of cost. But how?

More Victims of Our Own Wealth• Local Trends: By 2009, Median House Value will

increase by 125% ($313K in 2000 to $702K in 2009); People earning $150,000+ will increase by 127% while others drop; Owner occupied housing is 62% for Whites or Asians, less than 45% for others) (*3); Tidal Wave II remains only a pretty concept. Non-Hispanic population is decreasing and Hispanic birth rate is slowing down. Young families are moving away.

• Local Colleges’ Trends: More basic skills needs; More trending toward occupation needs of an aging, wealthy and overall declining population; Fewer Hispanic students than anticipated for Cabrillo and MPC; Continued disruption by periodical fee hikes (Every $1 increase resulted in loss of 100 students. It takes 3 years for enrollment to recover.) (*7).

Faces of Our Students, Faces of Our Community & Voters

The Neglected Majority? (Dale Parnell)Non-traditional students are traditional students in community colleges (*5).

How Do We Serve Them?

• By being the great equalizer• Highly responsive to change• Jack of All Trades and Master of Everything• Constantly convince people that buying

cheap is buying smart• Running it lean and mean (George Foreman

must have “stolen” it from us.)– A typical cc annual marketing dollar: $45K– Heald College: $ 2million

Local Colleges Doing Their Share (Within Their Sphere of Influence)

• Increasing Distance Education• Compressing Schedules• Creative Marketing

– Hartnell’s Needs Analysis– Gavilan’s Zipcode Geo Mapping– MPC’s Targeted Marketing/Enrollment Mgmt– Cabrillo’s Call Center

• Maintaining & Increasing student success

• Building partnerships and doing outreach to high schools.

Issue One: Composite StudentSeveral Students Make Up One FTES

Funding for community colleges is “enrollment” and “growth” based, coupled with the unique funding formula called FTES. This is dated and not reflective of the realities of the local community the college serves.

Where the Growth Is In California (*1)

Community College Learner Lifecycle Full spectrum of the community and

full range of needs.

For people in each life stage, consider:•Population Size•Needs•Ability to Meet Needs

UniversityPopulation

It REALLY Takes A Village For the local colleges

• Study Community College Learner Lifecycle• Consider Learner Behavior & Engagement Data• Enhance Research & Marketing (R&M vs. R&D) For the legislators

• Provide Regional Equalization• Try Gentle & Incremental Annual Fee IncreaseFor all of us present:

• Recognize We Are In An Era Of Transformation• If UC is about maintaining our lead in high tech,

CC is about our state’s economic stability• Ask not what your community college can do for

you. Ask what you can do for your community college.

Data Sources

• (*1) Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, 2005 http://www.demographers.com/SchoolClosureCrisis.pdf

• (*2) State Chancellor’s Office (http://www.ijournal.us/issue_10/ij_issue10_06.html )

• (*3) Maas Companies/ESRI• (*4) Department of Finance Projections• (*5) Reed, Sally (2005) Learning for Life. In many

ways and for myriad reasons, adults are heading back for class. Lumina Foundation Focus, Winter 2005.

• (*6) Interview & survey of four college CIOs and researchers

• (*7) Cabrillo College Planning & Research Team• (*8) Department of Finance• (*9) Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments

(AMBAG)• (*10) http://www.schoolmatters.com/

Scenarios

• Enrollment• Funding