WBCSD, November 2004 Energy and climate change Facts and Trends to 2050.

WBCSD, November 2004

Energy and climate change

Facts and Trends to 2050

2

The issue at a glance . . .

Growth, development & energy demand Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement for economic and social

development. Energy demand could double or triple by 2050 as a result of development.

Facts and trends

Reshaping our energy future By 2050 energy demand will be sharply higher, but global carbon emissions

must be no higher than today and trending downward. No single solution will deliver this change.

Above all, we need to start now.

The dynamics of technological change Global technological change is a lengthy process, measured in decades. Very large systems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take up to

a century to fully develop.

Energy use and climate impacts Carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere are rising, as is global temperature. By starting to manage carbon dioxide emissions now, we can limit the change.

3

The issue at a glance . . .Facts and trends - section 1

Growth, development & energy demand Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement for economic and

social development. Energy demand could double or triple by 2050 as a result of development.







4

How will our energy system develop?

Prim

ary, En

ergy, E

J

200

0

400

600

800

1000

1200

1920-1930’s

Coal economyCoal economy

OECD countries

Non-OECD countries

Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.

Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.

2000

New renewables such as wind and solar

New renewables such as wind and solar

The transition is uncertain?The transition is uncertain?

2050

Low

High

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Te

mp

era

ture

varia

tion

Source: Hadley Centre and CDIAC

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, MtC

Temperature variation (w.r.t. 1961-1990)

5

Global Trend

Growth, development and energy demand

Basic premise – energy use and growth are strongly linked

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

$0 $5'000 $10'000 $15'000 $20'000 $25'000 $30'000

GDP per capita, US$ 1995 ppp

En

erg

y U

se, G

J p

er c

apit

a

EU-15

North America

Korea 1970-2000

Malaysia 1970-2000

China 1970-2000

Sou

rce:

WB

CS

D a

dapt

atio

n of

IEA

200

3

6

Global population divided into income groups: Poorest (GDP < $1,500) Developing (GDP < $5,000) Emerging (GDP < $12,000) Developed (GDP > $12,000)

Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050

Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2050

Low Poverty

Base case Prosperous world

Po

pu

latio

n, m

illion

s

Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries.

Developed (GDP>$12,000)Emerging (GDP<$12,000)Developing (GDP<$5,000)Poorest (GDP<$1,500)

Primary energy

Growth, development and energy demand

Sou

rce:

WB

CS

D a

dapt

atio

n of

IEA

200

3

7

Energy use, development and CO2

Other sectors

Non-road transport

Road transport

Manufacturing

Energy industries

Heat and power

World

USA

Canada

UK

Germany

PolandFrance

Japan

Australia

OECD

20’000

Indonesia

Venezuela

Brazil

South Africa

Nigeria

Mozambique

Russia

China

PakistanIndia

Non-OECD

5000

10’000

Emissions by sector, kg CO2 per capita per year (2001)

Sou

rce:

WB

CS

D a

dapt

atio

n of

IEA

200

3

8

Energy use, development and CO2

Power generation emissionsgCO2/kWh

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Diversity of fuel sources

South Africa (C)

Brazil (H)

Mozambique (H)

India (C, H)

Australia ( C, G)

China (C, H)

Poland (C, G)

Pakistan (G, H) Netherlands (G, C)

Venezuela (H, G)

France (N, H)

Iceland (H, Ge)

USA (C, G, N)

Germany (C, G, N)

UK (G, N, C) Nigeria (O, G, H)

Denmark (G, C, W)

New Zealand (H, G, Ge)

Indonesia (G, O, C, H)

Japan ( G, N, C, H)

Russia (G, C, H, N)

Canada (H, C, G, N)

Coal >

Oil >

Gas >

Geothermal Nuclear

Hydro Wind >

Sou

rce:

WB

CS

D a

dapt

atio

n of

IEA

200

3 an

d C

IA 2

004

9




Facts and trends - section 2







10

Using the IPCC scenarios

IPCC developed many scenarios, each with several models.

A1B and B2 were consistent on population and development goals with “Low Poverty” and “Prosperous World” case.

A1B-AIM and B2-AIM used in this publication.

1500

1000

500

Coal

Oil

Biomass

Renewables

Nuclear

2000 2050

Natural gas

Prim

ary

ener

gy, E

J pe

r ye

ar

A1BB2 Sou

rce:

IPC

C 2

000

IPCC A1B, the higher energy use scenario, describes a future world of very rapid economic growth and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

RE

RE

IPCC B2, the lower energy use scenario, represents an intermediate level of economic growth with an emphasis on local solutions to sustainable development. In this world there is less rapid but more diverse technological change.

RE

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Is there an acceptable limit for CO2 emissions?

Scenario A1B emissions rangeScenario B2 emissions range

Is there an acceptable limit for CO2 emissions?

15

20

25

5

10

02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21001980

550 ppm

Large-scale high-impact

events

Higher

VeryLow

Risks to many

Risks to some

Unique and threatened systems

Large Increase

Increase

Extreme climate events

ºC

450 ppm

1000 ppm

1000 ppm

21

00

23

00

1990

6 -

5 -

4 -

3 -

2 -

1 -

0 -

450 ppm

21

00

23

00

550 ppm

21

00

2

30

0

Sou

rce:

IPC

C 2

001

CO2, GtC

12

Adapting to climate change

The impact on our climate could be substantial even at an achievable stabilization level, so adaptation to climate change will have to play a part of any future strategy.

Impacts will vary from region to region; much of the detail is uncertain.

Measures might include:

Flood defences in low-lying areas, ranging from Florida to Bangladesh

Refugee planning for island states such as the Maldives

Improved water management (e.g. aqueducts) as rainfall patterns change

13








The dynamics of technological change Global technological change is a lengthy process, measured in decades. Very large systems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take

up to a century to fully develop.


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All change tomorrow ?

Many advocate that a rapid change in our energy infrastructure is the only solution to the threat of climate change. However:

Major transitions at the global level will take time to implement

The speed with which new technologies diffuse depends on many factors.

15

Evolution of the Internet

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001943: “I think there is a world market may be for six computers” Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM

1946: ENIAC unveiled

1964: IBM 360

1972: Xerox GUI and mouse

1982: IBM PC

2000: Cheap high speed computing

1991: www convention adopted

1990: Number of hosts exceeds 100’000

1983: Switch-over to TCP/IP

1972: @ first used

1969: ARPANET commissioned by DoD for research into networking

1961: First paper on packet-switching theory

Dot.com boom: explosive growth of the internet, acceptance as an everyday part of life

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The lifetime of energy infrastructure

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++

The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment

Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years

Nuclear 30 – 60 years

Coal power 45+ years

Hydro 75+ years

Gas turbines 25+ years

Buildings 45+++ years

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« Technology transfer »?

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

First prototype

First concept

1 million produced

16 million produced

Production at 1000 cars/month

1 million per annumproduced

21.5 million produced

Production ends in Germany

Production ends in Mexico

Last vehicles on the road in the EU

Last vehicles on the road?

New technologies in developed countries may arrive, mature and even decline before their widespread adoption in developing regions.

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Case 1: Light duty vehicles

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total vehicles, millions

Total alternative vehicles

Total traditional vehicles

Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a.Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a. Large scale "alternative" vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. thereafter.

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Case 2: Power generation technologies

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1999 2010 2020 2030

Global installedgeneration capacity

GW

. . . because of the large existing base of power stations and their long lifetimesAdditional capacity needed

Declining current capacity

CO2 emissionsMt per year

10’000

8’000

9’000

… CO2 emissions from the power sector will still not start to decline before 2030

• All new coal stations capture and store carbon or nuclear/ renewable capacity is built instead

• Natural gas is the principal other fossil fuel

Even if…

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Reshaping our energy future By 2050 energy demand will be sharply higher, but global carbon

emissions must be no higher than today and trending downward. No single solution will deliver this change.





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. . . about 1400 1GW CCGT power stations

. . . about 700 conventional 1GW coal fired power stations

. . . about 600 million SUVs

. . . or more than one and a half billion hybrid-electric vehicles

One Giga-tonne of carbon emissions per year?

22

Today’s energy infrastructure

700+ coal power stations 1.5 Gt

25EJ per year solar

500,000 5MW wind turbines

1000 1GW coal power stations

1000 1GW coal stations with sequestration

1000 1GW oil power stations

1000 1GW gas power stations

1000 1GW nuclear plants

1000 1GW hydro/ tidal /geothermal

50EJ non-commercial fuel

100 EJ direct fuel use(Biofuels)

500 million vehicles(Biofuels)

500 million low CO2

(Biofuels)

800 gas or oil power stations 0.7 Gt

800 million vehicles 1+ Gt

Non-commercial biomass 1 Gt

Direct burning of fuel 3-4 Gt

8.0 Gt

8 Gt carbon

309

EJ

2000

Non emmitting technologies 0 Gt

Final Energy

Non-commercialSolidsLiquids

ElectricityGas

232050 (B2-AIM) 2050 (A1B-AIM)

Meeting future energy needs (IPCC)

Final Energy


ElectricityGas

671

EJ

1002

EJ

Intermediate growth, local solutions, less rapid technological change.

Rapid economic growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

15 Gt carbon

16 Gt carbon

24

Achieving an acceptable CO2 stabilizationAchieving a lower CO2 stabilization

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO2 emissionsGtC / year

A1B/B2 Emissions range

550 ppm

1000 ppm

6-7 Gt reduction

• A1B-AIM• B2-AIM

Sou

rce:

IPC

C 2

000

25

Low energy / carbon intensity development, enabled by societal andtechnology changes.

2050 (550 ppm trajectory)

705

EJ

A much lower CO2 trajectory

9 Gt carbon

Final Energy


ElectricityGas

26

Some options at a glance

2000

8 Gt

30

9 E

J

2050 (B2-AIM)

67

1 E

J

Intermediate growth, local solutions, less rapid technological change.

15 Gt

10

02

EJ

Rapid economic growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

16 Gt

2050 (A1B-AIM)

Low energy / carbon intensity development, enabled by societal andtechnology changes.

2050 (550 ppm trajectory)7

05

EJ

9 Gt

27

550 ppm1000 ppm

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO2 emissions GtC / year

Scenario B1 emissions range

Sou

rce:

IPC

C 2

000

Energy conservation and efficiency

28

Options for change – enabling technologies

A further shift to natural gas1400 1 GW CCGT rather than 700 conventional coal fired plants means 1 Gt less carbon emissions per annum.

Nuclear energy700 1 GW plants rather than 700 conventional coal fired plants means 1 Gt less carbon emissions per annum.

RenewablesWind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectricity.

e.g. 300,000 5 MW wind turbines is equivalent to 1 Gt carbon from conventional coal, but would cover Portugal!

Bio-productsBy 2050, bio-products could contribute 100 EJ of final energy with little or no net CO2 emissions.

Carbon capture and storageA possible route to using our abundant coal resources, but numerous implementation challenges remain.

Mass transportationCO2 emissions per person vary over a 3:1 range for developed countries – mass transit is one of the reasons.

Road transportCould rise to 3 Gt carbon by 2050 with over 2 billion vehicles.

Improved efficiency or a hydrogen economy could each reduce this by 1 Gt.

BuildingsThe US DOE Zero Energy Home program has shown that a 90% reduction in energy can be achieved for new. buildings.

Low energy appliances0.5 – 1 Gt carbon reductions could be achieved by 2050 just by changing the lights!!

Doing things differentlyImagine what can be achieved with the internet and wireless technology!

Emission reduction

Energy conservation and efficiency

29

Principal references and sources

• BP 2003: Statistical review of world energy

• Central Intelligence Agency 2004: The world factbook

• Evan Mills Ph.D., IAEEL and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2002: The $230-billion global lighting energy bill

• Hadley Centre and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC)

• IEA 2003: CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 1971-2001

• IEA 2002: World Energy Outlook

• IPCC 2001: Climate change 2001, Synthesis report

• IPCC 2000: Emissions scenarios: A special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• UN 2002: World population prospects

• WBCSD 2004: Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to Sustainability

WBCSD, November 2004 Energy and climate change Facts and Trends to 2050.

Documents

energy infrastructures

energy future

energy system

ppp energy use

higher energy use scenario

g china c

g pakistan g

h denmark g