Watersheds of the Sky the terrestrial origins of precipitation and the importance of landscapes for maintaining social-ecological resilience May 23, 2012 Patrick W. Keys Stockholm Resilience Centre and Keys Consulting Inc.
Watersheds of the Skythe terrestrial origins of precipitation and the importance of landscapes for maintaining social-ecological resilience
May 23, 2012
Patrick W. Keys
Stockholm Resilience Centre
and Keys Consulting Inc.
• Evaporation traveling through the atmosphere and falling out as precipitatione.g. Budkyo 1974; Lettau et al., 1979; Koster et al. 1986; Brubaker et al. 1993; Eltahir and Bras 1994; Savenije 1995
• Large regions of the terrestrial land surface provide evaporation for downwind precipitatione.g. Numaguti, 1999; Bosilovich and Chern, 2006; Dirmeyer and Brubaker, 2007; Dominguez and Kumar, 2008; Dirmeyer et al., 2009; van der Ent et al., 2010; Ellison et al., 2011; Keys et al., 2012
Moisture Recycling
Terrestrial land surface
Atmospheric
transport
Ocean
Evaporation Precipitation Evaporation
Atmospheric
transport
Water Accounting Model (WAM)van der Ent et al. 2010
Backtracking precipitation
• Reversing the WAM allows for the identification of specific evaporation source areas
• The precipitationshed “…the upwind atmosphere and surface that contributes evaporation to a specific location’s precipitation.”Keys et al. 2010
• The precipitationshed is a first step towards managing upwind rainfall
Terrestrial evaporation dependent water-constrained, rainfed-agriculture
Precipitationshed W. Sahel
E. Sahel precipitationshed
E. China precipitationshed
N. China precipitationshed
Argentina precipitationshed
Pakistan-India precipitationshed
S. Africa precipitationshed
Seven Precipitationsheds
Interpreting results
• Analysis reveals that many areas are dependent on recycled moisture and are vulnerable to changes in upwind moisture recycling.
• These areas would benefit from a stable provision of moisture during the growing season
• Upwind land-use planning should consider the benefits of maintaining the existing or integrating new tree cover into the agricultural landscape
Policy considerations
• The precipitationshed is a spatially explicit method allowing the identification of stakeholders in source-sink relationships
• Scientists working with land use change and ecology need to work more closely with hydrologists and climatologists (and vice versa) to move this science forward
• Managers of different resource areas will need to cooperate on exchanging information and coordinate activities.
• Need to understand which areas contribute the most evaporation, and whether we can expect sudden or surprising land-use changes.
Continuing questions
• What other livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to changes in upwind evaporation?
• How does agroforestry compare to ‘pure’ agriculture or ‘pure’ forest in terms of evaporation?
• What existing institutions might serve as useful models for developing precipitationshed management institutions?
Thank you!
Precipitationshed W. Sahel (absolute)
E. China precipitationshed (absolute)
N. China precipitationshed (absolute)
E. Sahel precipitationshed (absolute)
Argentina precipitationshed (absolute)
Pakistan-India precipitationshed (absolute)
S. Africa precipitationshed (absolute)
Backtracking integration