Water Year 2009 Forecast Review: Upper Colorado River Basin

Water Year 2009 Forecast Review: Upper Colorado River Basin

CRFS

November 19, 2009

Colorado River near Cameo

Upper Colorado MainstemBasin Conditions WY2009

020406080

100120140160180

MonthlyPrecipitation

Water YearPrecipitation

Snow WaterEquivalent

% o

f 197

1-20

00 a

vera

ge

As of Jan 1

As of Feb 1

As of Mar 1

As of Apr 1

As of May 1

As of Jun1

As of Jul 1

As of Aug 1

Colorado River above Cameo(>20 years POR), missing Schofield/Fremont Pass

2914 kAF / 120%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 2508 2613r 2600 2657 2640r 2700 2650 110%

Feb 1 2596 2713r 2700 2802 2740r 2740 2700 112%

Mar 1 2583 2651r 2650 2679 2690r 2700 2700 112%

Apr 1 2630 2589r 2600 2666 2600r 2570 2600 107%

May 1 2726 2631r 2627 2472 2620r 2620 2600 107%

Jun 1 2647 2666r 2667 2382 2690r 2670 2670 110% r=routed with upstream preferred

Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast

Colorado – Cameo, Nr (CAMC2)

January April June

Gunnison River – Blue Mesa Reservoir

Gunnison R. Inflow to Blue Mesa(>20 years POR), missing Schofield

775 kAF / 107%

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 696 766-825 740 813 810/745r 750 750 104%

Feb 1 682 865 750 806 825/755r 755 750 104%

Mar 1 660 897 730 792 770/735r 735 730 101%

Apr 1 681 876 720 788 755/685r 700 690 96%

May 1 705 729 705 806 680/680r 690 690 96%

Jun 1 763 843 765 824 685/800r 790 790 110%

Blue Mesa Reservoir Inflow

Porphyry Creek Precipitation - Accumulation

Porphyry Creek Temperature - Instantaneous

4” SWE storm

Month long dry period begins

Two periods of warm temperatures

Several weeks of above 32 degree minimum temperatures begin

Month long dry period ends. Start of wet pattern with above 32 degree temperatures.

High inflows continue caused by rain and very high freezing levels.

Elevation: 10,760

Max means

Min means

4/1 5/1 6/1

4/1 5/1 6/1

32.0

Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast

Gunnison – Blue Mesa Reservoir (BMDC2)

January April June

110 kAF / 107%

99 kAF / 99%254 kAF / 79%

114 kAF / 112%

San Juan River – Navajo Reservoir

Average June precipitation is just 0.9” – not a significant contributor to the wateryear total, compared with Dec-Mar whichaverage ~2” each.

San Juan R. Inflow to Navajo(>20 years POR)

More than half of last year’s peak SWE amount was on the groundbefore the end of December.

660 kAF / 84% of average

Forecast RFC NRCS COORD

Date ESP SWS PREF DAILY LEGACY PREF KAF % AVG

Jan 1 892 980 890 1031 1110/905r 905 900 115%

Feb 1 888 875 890 886 1010/880r 880 885 113%

Mar 1 761 841 815 793 885/825r 825 815 104%

Apr 1 712 748 740 663 730/665r 675 690 88%

May 1 700 608 715 654 700/665r 670 690 88%

Jun 1 708 703 710 645 705/680r 700 710 90%

January April June

Streamflow Scatterplot ~ 1991-2009 ~ Coordinated Forecast

San Juan – Navajo Reservoir (NVRN5)

46 kAF / 79%184 kAF / 90%

407 kAF / 93%