Water Security in Eastern Europe - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/715741506008935840/GWP-Water-Security...Water Security in Eastern Europe ... Water scarcity ... Mitigation & restoration

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Water Security in Eastern Europe

Securing Water, Sustaining Growth

GWP Central and Eastern EuropeRichard Müller

Water Security in Eastern Europe www.gwp.orgSeptember 20172/35

Our mission is to support the sustainable development and management of water resources at all levels

13 Regional Water Partnerships

85 Country Water Partnerships

3000+ Partners in 178 countries

The Global Water Partnership's vision is for a water secure world


• Population of 152 million people, a quarter of all Europeans

• Total area of over 2.03 million km2

• 12 countries in Baltic and Danube regions, 160 Partner organizations

• Founded in 1998

• Baltic region: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland

• Danube region: Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine

Facts and figures


What is Water Security?

Source -UNWATER

“The capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of and acceptable qualitywater for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protectionagainst water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability.”



Source -UNWATER



Source -UNWATER

• Access to safe and sufficient drinking water at an affordable cost in order to meet basic needs, which includes sanitation and the safeguarding of health and well-being

• Protection of livelihoods, human rights, and cultural and recreational values

• Preservation and protection in water allocation and management systems in order to maintain their ability to deliver and support ecosystems to sustain the functioning of essential ecosystem services

• Water supplies for socio-economic development and activities (such as energy, transport, industry, tourism)

• Collection and treatment of used water to protect human life and the environment from pollution

• Collaborative approaches to transboundary water resources management within and between countries to promote freshwater sustainability and cooperation

• The ability to cope with uncertainties and risks of water-related hazards, such as floods, droughts and pollution, among others; and,

• Good governance and accountability, and the due consideration of the interests of all stakeholders through: appropriate and effective legal regimes; transparent, participatory and accountable institutions; properly planned, operated and maintained infrastructure; and capacity development


Framing the Water Security Dynamic

Source: GWP-OECD TF Report, 2015

° Sustainable growth, wealth & human well-being are at the core

° Focuses on the interplay between: ° water endowments

(water availability & variability)

° water security investments° growth/wealth/well-being

° Recognizes that a country’s water endowment influences the nature & level of investment needed to achieve water security


Starting Points (Water Endowments) Matter

Hall et al., Science (2014)

Countries with simple hydrologies & high investments in water security have high incomes

Basins with population > 2 millionColors reflect GDP per capitaHorizontal axis = hydrological complexityVertical axis = investment in water security (storage, institutions, information)


How Important is Water Security to Growth?

GWP/OECD Task Force research provides new empirical evidence that water insecurity causes diminished growth

° Water insecurity is a statistically significant global drag on growth

° The effect is not limited to highly agricultural economies but cuts across all economies

° Variability (changes in runoff, flood & drought) is a key causal factor driving the growth impacts

° Water insecurity acts as a drag or a “headwind” on growth, reducing the economic growth that would have occurred if hydrological variability could have been mitigated

Global Economic Growth with/without Drought

GWP/OECD Task Force: provisional results


Water-Related Hazards have a Statistically Significant, Causal Effect on Economic Growth



Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2007


Where are the Risks and Opportunities Located?

Water-related “headline” risks in Eastern Europe:

• Droughts, water scarcity and high variability

• Floods

• Inadequate water supply and sanitation

• Harmful impacts upon the environment

Water-related opportunities:

• Food: increased agricultural production

• Energy/Industry: thermal power cooling

• Transport: waterway navigation

• Ecosystems: protection/restoration of services

WATER-RELATED RISKS

WATER-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES


Where are Drought/Scarcity Risks?

° Hazards: droughts, variability, unpredictability, over-abstraction

° Vulnerability and exposure: agricultural dependence, water-intensive industries

° Impacts: water shortages for people, agriculture (malnutrition), energy, industry and the environment; risk-aversion and under-investment

° Modelling progress: Water availability/reliability defined as frequency of shortage of water available for use (combines runoff & groundwater, adjusts for storage, balances water supply/demand)


Droughts 1950-2012

Source: Spinoni, Naumann, Vogt, et al., 2015

Frequency Severity


Droughts 1950-2012

Source: EURO-CORDEX (Jacob, et al., 2014)

Annual Summer

Projected changes in mean annual and summer precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000


Water scarcity

Source: EEA indicator assessment 'Use of freshwater resources', 2016

Approximately 30 million inhabitants in winter and 70 million in summer are affected by water stress


Key observed climate change impacts

EEA SOER report, 2015


Droughts and Water Scarcity

US$94 billion per year, on average, of economic loss to food producers and

consumers€3 billion in the EU per year, on average


Where are Flood Risks?

° Hazard: Extreme rainfall &snowmelt, flow, storm surges

° Vulnerability and exposure:Floodplain population & GDP

° Impacts: Fatalities andeconomic losses ~ US$ 120bn/yr (prelim)



Floods in South East Europe 2014

Severe flooding in the Balkans(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

on NASA's Aqua satellite, 19 May 2014)

Source: WHO Europe, 2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA


Floods

US$120 billion of flood damage to property per year, on average

€5 billion in the EU, 160,000 people per year* *Source: EEA


Where are Water Supply & Sanitation Risks?

° Hazards: inadequate access to water supply & sanitation

° Impacts: mortality, morbidity, socioeconomic

US$ 260bn/yr (WHO)

WHO data

WASH-Related Deaths (per sq mile)

Population with Access to Sanitation


Inadequate Water Supply and Sanitation

US$260 billion per year of economic loss22.5 million without piped water, 28 million

without flush toilettes in 16 Danube countries** Source: Danube Water Program, 2017


Where are Environmental Risks?

° Hazards: Harmful water quality, over-abstraction, habitat disturbance

° Vulnerability and exposure: Species/ecosystem sensitivity

° Impacts: Endangered species, degraded habitats, clean up costs

° Modelling in process: Environmental flow requirement shortfalls

Habitats associated with 65% of continental discharge classified as moderately to highly threatened


Ecosystem Degradation and Pollution

Risks have not be monetizedGap between current water status

and ‘good status’


Where is the Nexus?

Water demands from irrigation in 2050


Water consumed in thermal power production (bcm)

Against a backdrop of increasing scarcity relative to demand the nexus of water/food/energy demands can affect water security



Evolution of water managment in Europe

1st phase1970-2000

Supply driven

Time

Sustainability

• Increase in supply• Storage reservoirs• Water transfers• Flood defence

2nd phase2000-2015

Water Framework Directive

• Technology• Water efficiency • Water pricing• Desalinisation

3rd phase2015-2050

Systemic demand management and water efficiency

• Climate adaptation • Green infrastructure• Green/blue cities• Nature based solutions• Reuse and recycle• Water/food/energy links

Source: EEA


Investments in Water Security: “the 3 Is”


° Water security is a statistically significant causal factor in economic growth

° Hydrological variability (runoff) is the key hydro-climatic factor with regard to economic growth & its effects reach across all economies (not just poor agricultural economies)

° The scale of economic risks/opportunities (hundreds of billions $/yr) should put it high on the agenda:

° The largest economic impacts are WASH risks, primarily in South Asia & Africa parts of Latin America

° Flood risks: People at risk heavily weighted in Asia/Assets at risk in OECD & Asia

° Scarcity risks (and opportunities): BRICs, parts of Africa & US

° Environmental Costs: Mitigation & restoration costs in OECD, rapidly increasing in China, India

° Sequencing matters: returns on investment are path dependent

Conclusion


• An integrated strategy for the whole water sector

• Effective reorganization of irrigation & drainage

• Introduction of the polluter pays principle

• Importance of water infrastructure and its modernisation

• Introduction of modern information systems

• Mapping of ecosystem services in river basins

The post-2015 development agenda

Source: Bulgaria stakeholder perspectives on a water goal and its implementation, GWP, 2014


• UN Secretary-General and the World Bank Group President convened a High Level Panel on Water (HLPW) in January 2016

• Shared principles to motivate and encourage governments, business, and civil society to consider water’s multiple values and to guide the transparent incorporation of these values into decision-making

• Regional Consultations in South Africa, Tajikistan, Mexico, Bangladesh, Peru and Senegal in 2017

• Consultationshttps://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/HLPWater

• Joint the conversations #ValuingWater, #HLPWater, #HLPW

Valuing Water

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/HLPWater


• Support to Governments to assert their leadership role in guiding water resources development and management including building stronger partnerships with the private sector and NGOs;

• Support to countries in designing their investment in portfolios of sequenced projects that combine institutions (agencies, rules, and incentives), information systems (hydro-meteorological, economic, and social), and infrastructure (natural and constructed) in the management of water resources and water-related risks;

• Support countries, mainly those most afflicted by water insecurity and are not credit-worthy enough to borrow their way out of water crisis, to package tailored financing mechanisms;

• Support countries to overcome the water information and knowledge gaps through the establishment of regional/national knowledge platforms designed to help them meet their water agenda by facilitating collaboration, awareness, knowledge and capacity building.

Ways Forward


Thank you for your attention

Благодаря за вниманието

Email: [email protected]

Water Security in Eastern Europe - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/715741506008935840/GWP-Water-Security...Water Security in Eastern Europe ... Water scarcity ... Mitigation & restoration

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