Water Security: Flash Points and Challenges Ahead

US, the World, and Water

When the well's dry, we know the worth of water.      Benjamin Franklin, Poor

Richard's Almanac, 1746

Water is the best of all things.

Pindar, 500 BC

Whiskey is for drinking; water is for fighting over

Mark Twain ca 1881

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water.“ But Jack fell down when tests came back showing a high count of two water-borne parasites known as cryptosporidia and giardia lamblia in his restaurant's water.

It's the water, stupid. Sorry about that, but it is. If we don't pay attention to the water, it's going to bite us big time.“

21st Century Blogs

Tomorrow Is Not Going to Be Like Yesterday

"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore”

The 21st Century

The 21st Century

• Population Explosion• Pressures for Development• Scarce Resources• Technological Surge• Change• Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous

National and World Situations

The Climate Change Bears

Sea Level Rise Increased Hurricane

Intensity -SST Increased Flood

Potential Increased Drought Increased

Temperatures More Storms Uncertainty

CLIMATE CHANGE!A strong, credible body of scientific evidence

shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses

significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems,

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It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century at the global scale.

It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas.

It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.

Rank Consecutive 12-month Period

Temperature Departure(from 20th Century Average)

Warmest May 2011 – April 2012* +2.80°F

2nd Warmest November 1999 – October 2000

+2.70°F

3rd Warmest October 1999 – September 2000

+2.65°F

4th Warmest April 2011 – March 2012* +2.61°F

5th Warmest September 2005 – August 2006

+2.56°F

6th Warmest August 2005 – July 2006 +2.54°F

  September 1999 – August 2000

+2.54°F

8th Warmest July 1999 – June 2000 +2.51°F

9th Warmest June 1999 – May 2000 +2.46°F

  August 1999 – July 2000 +2.46°F

Ten Warmest 12-month consecutive periods of the CONUS RecordThese are the warmest 12-month periods on record for the contiguous United States. The record begins

January 1895.

Climate Change and the NFIP

Water Security:

Flash Points and Challenges Ahead

Dallas, Texas2 April 2013

Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhDWater Policy Collaborative, University of Maryland

The World and the US Face Major Water Challenges

• The reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production, and

• An ability to deal with water-related disasters such as floods, hurricanes and drought

Adapted from David Gray and Claudia Sadoff

Water Security

Drought and Water Demand

• 2002 - 49 percent of the contiguous United States in moderate to extreme drought

• 2005-2007 Drought Grows in West and Southeast

• 2011 – Texas ‘On Fire”

• Uncertainty - Climate Change

US Water Challenges

Source NRDC

• 55% of the nation’s river and stream miles do not support healthy populations of aquatic life

• Non-point source pollution not yet controlled (TMDLs?)

• Number of new contaminants on rise

Water Quality

US Water Challenges

• Alien Invasive Species (AIS) growing threat

US Water ChallengesWater Quality

• Airborne pollution increasing

• Fracking

• 76 Years of Flood Control

• 44 Years of Flood Insurance

• Increasing Flood Damages

• Average annual losses - $8 Billion Inadequate Protection

• Inadequate Maintenance

US Water ChallengesFloods

city of Dallas/ David Mimlitch

City of Dallas/ David Mimlitch

Illustrative Result – Changes to Flood Areas

20Climate Change and the NFIP AECOM

Climate Change and the NFIP

Coastal Flood Area ChangeGulf of Mexico (Illustrative, not final)

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• Limiting Port Depths

• US Ports ~45 foot depths

• International Ports > 60 foot depths –Panamax II Capable

• Inland Waterway System

• Limited Size Locks

• Traffic Congestion

• Age

• Economic Viability

Ports , Harbors and Waterways in Transition

US Water Challenges

• Wetland and Species Losses

• ~ 60,000 acres annual wetland loss

• >1370 threatened or endangered plants and animals (1100 plans)

• Need for minimum instream flows and flood pulses

Protecting the Environment

US Water Challenges

100 Years of Civil Engineering at Maryland

Water - Energy Nexus• Water for Energy and Fuel

Production

• Energy for Water Production

• Exploitation of Renewable Sources

• Maximizing Sustainable Use of Hydro Capabilities

US Water Challenges

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Impact

• Farmers react– 18,000 participate in

Bucket Brigade

– Forced open gates ofdiversion canal

• Economic devastation– Predicted loss: $250

million

– Estimated actual loss:$400 million

Dealing with Conflicts US Water Challenges

1. The Nation Lacks a National Water Vision and a Water Policy

2. Water Efforts Are Uncoordinated

3. Water Must Be Dealt with in a Holistic Manner

• Water and Sanitation (MDG)

• Water Supply

• Disasters

• Transboundary Water Relationships

• Major Basin Development

US Water Challenges

Dealing with Global Water Challenges

Water Factoids

• One Billion People Lack Access to Safe water

• Two Billion People Live in Countries under Water Stress

• Five Million People Die Each Year from Water-related Illness

Source: DOS;FP

Cubic Meters of Water Per Capita by BasinSource: Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database

Basic Needs

Can Be Met

SHARING WATER RESOURCES

• There are 263 transboundary basins

• 145 nations have territory within a transboundary basin, and 21 lie entirely within one.

• 12 countries have more than 95% of their territory within one or more transboundary basins.

• On third of the transboundary basins are shared by more than two countries.

Good Neighbors?

• 97% of Egypt’s Nile Water dependent on 8 other nations

• 66% of Iraq’s Water dependent on Turkey

• 19 Countries rely on Imported Water for > 50% of renewable resources

Source: SEI, Polestar Series, Report 4

Source: TFDD

Water Basins at Risk

Virtual Water

Basics!

Water SupplyFloodsPowerPollutionInfrastructureNavigation

Water SupplyFloodsPowerPollutionInfrastructure

Impediments to Progress• Lack of Policy

–US Internal

–US Foreign Policy• Little Interest in Water• Denial of Change Impacts• Focus on Small Projects• Nervousness about Major Projects• Limited Funding

The Challenge

• Involve All Elements of Society and All Nations in a Complex Political, Social and Technical Process

• Export Our Lessons Learned, Not Our Mistakes

Are We Ready?