Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?

Water scarcity in the Arab world:

how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?

Rania el Masri, Ph.D.Environment and Energy Policy Specialist

Cairo, May 8, 2012

2

State of our water commons

3

1958

-196

2

1963

-196

7

1968

-197

2

1973

-197

7

1978

-198

2

1983

-198

7

1988

-199

2

1993

-199

7

1998

-200

2

2003

-200

70

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania

Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen

Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr)

4

Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Water Crisis level (< 500)

Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)

Water scarcity level (< 1000)

5

Kuwait UAE

QatarYem

en

Saudi A

rabia

Libya

Bahra

inJor

dan

Algeri

a

Djibou

ti

Tunisia

OmanEgy

ptSyr

ia

Morocco

Leban

onSud

an Iraq

Maurita

nia -

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)

Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)

Water Crisis level (< 500)

Water scarcity level (< 1000)

6

Bahra

inJor

dan

Yemen

Tunisia

Saudi A

rabia

Qatar

Algeri

aEgy

pt

Morocco

Leban

onLib

yaOman UAE Syr

ia Iraq

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1955 1990 2000 2025

Freshwater availability: 1955-2025(m3/capita/yr)

7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1960 1999 2025

Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025

8

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr)

Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 -

9

Qatar

Kuwait

Saudi A

rabia

Oman Iraq

Jorda

n

Leban

onSyr

ia

Morocco

Algeri

aTun

isia Libya

Egypt

Maurita

niaSud

anYem

enWorl

d0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Population Percent change, 1961-2007

10

Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010

Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining…

11Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025

Bahra

inOman

Qatar

Saudi A

rabia UAE

Kuwait Ira

q

Lebano

nSyr

iaJor

dan Egypt

Algeri

a

Morocco

Tunisia Lib

yaYem

en0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 2001 2025

12

population growth: 1950-2050

Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year) GCC population: to

double by 2040 Maghreb population:

to double by 2060

13

State of our water commons Decreasing supply

Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita)

Population growth Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and

social demands

PlusProjected impacts of climate change

decreasing supply and increasing demand

14

Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.

15

State of our water commons: leakage

16

Water supply and uses

For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006)

17

Djib

outi

Kuw

ait

Bah

rain

Jord

an

Mau

ritan

ia

Qat

ar

Alg

eria

Om

an

Som

alia

Leba

non

Yem

en

Tun

isia

Mor

occo

Egy

pt

UA

E

Sud

an

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Syr

ia

Liby

a

Iraq

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Area equipped for irrigation Rainfed cultivated area

Although irrigated agriculture accounts for more than 80% of water use in the region, irrigated areas are limited and represent only 29% of the arable lands and 32% of the cultivated areas

18

Algeria

Bahrai

nEgy

ptIra

qJord

an

Kuwait*

Leban

onLib

ya

Morocco

Oman** OPT

Saudi A

rabia

Syria

Tunisia UAE

Yemen

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010)

Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011

19

Impacts of our water crisis

20

Somalia

Maurita

niaLibyaYem

enSud

an Iraq

Algeri

a

Morocco OPT

DjiboutiOman

SyriaTun

isia

Comoro

sJor

danEgyptKu

wait

Leban

onQata

rUAE

010203040506070

Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Somalia Sudan Yemen0

102030405060708090

100

Rural Urban

Population without access to improved water sources (2010)

Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010)

Impact of water crisis: who gets water?

21

Som

alia

Mau

ritan

ia

Suda

n

Com

oros

Djib

outi

Yem

en

Mor

occo

Iraq

Tuni

sia OPT

Alge

ria

Egyp

t

Syria

Libya

Jord

an

UAE

Om

an

Kuw

ait

Leba

non

Qat

ar

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Somalia

Maurita

nia

Djibout

i

Comoro

sYem

en

Morocco

Tunisia Ira

q0

102030405060708090

100

Rural Urban

Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)

Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)

Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?

22

(Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand

Direct impacts … increased cost … decreased quality (eg: increased

salinization) Indirect impacts

… increased poverty … increased health risks …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector

Decreased ecosystem health

23

Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable

24

HUMAN SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

State: water security crisis

IMPACTS

Human well-being:

Economic, social goods & services

RESPONSES

Mitigation and adaptation

PRESSURES

DRIVERS

Ecosystem services

Farmer liveilhoods

Population growthIncreased consumption

Increased resource exploitation

Climate change

Agricultural mismanagement

Decreasing supplyDecreasing quality

25

Current Responses Desalination

GCC: more than 50% of their domestic water use consumption comes from desalination

Energy usage: drinking oil? Impact on marine life

Privatization UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: PPP Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon) Risk of cost

Reuse of drainage water Practiced on a large scale in Egypt More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

26

Additional necessary responses Reduce consumption (from repairing

infrastructure to family planning) Develop a water commons Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive

package Sequential water use Wise agricultural management (from exporting

virtual water to farmer support) Water as a human right

27

HUMAN SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

State: water security crisis

IMPACTS

Human well-being:

Economic, social goods & services

RESPONSES • Reduce consumption• Develop a water

commons• Water as a human

right

PRESSURES

DRIVERS

Ecosystem services

Farmer liveilhoods

Population growthIncreased consumption

Increased resource exploitation

Climate change

Agricultural mismanagement

Decreasing supplyDecreasing quality

28

Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine

29Theft of Palestinian Water