Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in North China Plain and Poyang Lake Region in China: Preliminary Findings and Research Plan Jikun Huang,

Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in North China Plain and Poyang

Lake Region in China:Preliminary Findings and Research Plan

Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang and Lingling HouCenter for Chinese Agricultural Policy

Chinese Academy of Sciences19 June 2013

Presentation

• Project goals and objectives

• Research design and data

• Preliminary findings

– Adaptation measures and determinants

– Farmers’ perception on climate change and

determinants

• Research plan

Study Regions: North China Plain (NCP) and Poyang Lake Region (PLR)

Long term change of temperature in the NCP: 1960-2012

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201011.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0 oC 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

12.89 12.86 12.88 13.51 13.82

Long term change of temperature in the PLR: 1960-2012

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201016.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5 oC

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

17.57 17.32 17.30 17.40 18.23

Long term change of precipitation in the NCP: 1960-2012

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100 mm

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

801.6 800.6 761.7 799.9 805.3

Long term change of precipitation in the PLR: 1960-2012

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

mm1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s1271 1364 1355 1503 1302

Research goals

The overall goals of this study are to improve adaptation strategies by conducting economic analysis and exploring appropriate technologies, policy, and investment options (TPI) to address immediate challenges and those posed by longer term climate variability and change in water and water related sectors in two of the most vulnerable regions in China, NCP and PLR.

Research objectives

Obj. 1: Documenting historical and future change of climate, variability, their impacts on water, and the likely adaptation measures in NCP and PLR.Obj. 2: Identifying appropriate adaptive options and the constraints of their adoptions.Obj. 3: Assessing cost and benefit of major adaptation measures.Obj. 4: Building capacity for researchers, local policy makers and communities on water and adaptation to climate change.

Presentation

• Project goals and objectives

• Research design and data

• Preliminary findings

– Adaptation measures and determinants

– Farmers’ perception on climate change and

determinants

• Research plan

Research design and data (1)

• Adaptation to long run climate change: – Based on actual adaptation strategies of

community (e.g., village) and individuals (e.g., farmers) in the past -- township and village surveys

– Based on individual perception of climate change and their practices in water and water related sectors (e.g., crop) -- household and individual surveys

Research design and data (2)• Impacts and adaptation to extreme events:

– Natural experiments:• Each province: select counties that experienced

one relatively normal year and the other serious natural disaster year in recent 3 years: identify the impacts

• In each county: select 3 townships with different water infrastructure (good, average and poor): identify effects of different infrastructure

– Randomly select rural households• 10 hh/village; large variations in resilience

NCP : 15 counties, 45 IDs, 45 townships, 135 villages and 1350 hh in 5 provinces PLR : 10 counties, 10 IDs, 30 townships, 90 villages and 900 hh in one province

Training enumerators

Conducting field survey

Household Survey: General Information

• Household characteristics (e.g., demographic data, human capital, employment, production assest, wealth, water related service, etc)

• Decision making by man and women• Past adjustments to climate shocks• Perceived change of climate• Opinions to adjust their perceived long term

climate change and variability• …

Community Survey • Basic socio-economic characteristics: topography,

soil types, transportation infrastructure • Water conservancy infrastructure: irrigation and

drainage systems, drinking water facilities, and water transportation

• Access to surface and groundwater resources, and change of water supply availability

• Various damages from extreme weather events in the past decade

• Adaptation measures adopted: technical, policy and institutional arrangement, and investment project

• Costs and constraints to adopt various adaptation measures

• …

Presentation

• Project goals and objectives

• Research design and data

• Preliminary findings

– Adaptation measures and determinants

– Farmers’ perception on climate change and

determinants

• Research plan

Occurrence of Drought in NCP

Henan Hebei Shandong Jiangsu Anhui NCP0

20

40

60

80

100

4740

2633

57

46

98

50

37

77 8074

Percentage of plots (%)

normal year disaster year

Yield Reduction due to Drought in NCP

Henan Hebei Shandong Jiangsu Anhui NCP0

3

6

9

12

5

7

3

2

6

5

6

8

5

7

11

7

Yield reduction (%)

normal year disaster year

Practitioner Category 1 Category 2 Main contents

Household

EngineeringBuild Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond

Repair Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond

Non-engineering

Water saving technology

Border irrigation, Furrow irrigation, Level field, Surface pipe, Sprinkler, Drip, Plastic film, Less tillage, Residual retention, Evaporation resisting agentia, Intermittence irrigation, Drought-resistance variety

Field management

Change: Variety, Sowing and harvest date, Reseeding, Fixing and cleaning, Irrigation time and volume, Other inputs

Risk management Adjust planting structure, Agricultural insurance coverage

Rural community

EngineeringBuild Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and

Underground pipe

Repair Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and Underground pipe

Non-engineeringRisk management Disaster fighting activity, agricultural insurance

Capacity improvement

Disaster prevention training, Water user association, Other farmers Association

Government

EngineeringBuild Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam

Repair Reservoir, Dam

Non-engineeringRisk management

Provide: Disaster warning service, Disaster response knowledge, Funding support, Technical support, Launched emergency warning system, Emergency response plan, rules and regulations for disaster, Change water price policy

Capacity improvement

Disaster prevention training

• Adoption of adaptation measures by farmers, communities and government: cope with drought in the North China Plain (NCP)

Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households:Engineering and Non-engineering Measures

10

36

92

39

56

0

20

40

60

80

100

Share of households(%)

Engineering measures

Investment Maintenance Water saving technologies

Farm management

Risk management

Non-engineering measures

Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households: Farm Management Measures

3.5

23.5

16.9

1.60.1 0.7 1.0 0.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

Share of households(%)

Change crop

varieties

Change sow/

harvest date

Reseed,clean/

fitplant

Change irrigation intensity

Change irrigation

date

Change seed input

Change fertilizer

inputs

Change pesticide

inputs

Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Engineering Measures

0

16

0 0 4

20

79

14 17

4 6

4

26

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Investment Maintenance

%

Drainage/irrigation station

Drainage/irrigation

canal

Bank Dam Pond Well Pump

6.7

93.3

Villages Established Water User Association (%)

Established

not estab-lished

28.1

71.9

Villages Established Farmers’ Production Association (%)

Established

Not estab-lished

Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities: Capacity Building

Before dis-aster

After disaster Financial support

Technical support

Material support

0

20

40

60

80

100

29 2825

1810

Percentage of village, %

Early Warning Information Policy Support

Adaptation Measures Adopted by Government: Information Service and Policy Support

• Why factors influencing farmers’ decision on adopting adaptation measures?

Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures by Farmers: Logit Econometric model

Disaster (D) Type of year (1=normal year;0=disaster year)Early warning information service (I) Providing information before

disaster(1=Yes;0=No); Providing information during/after disaster (1=Yes;0=No)Capacity building (G) Water use associations(1=yes;0=No) Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=No)Whether the household joined in training(1=Yes;0=No)

Irrigation infrastructure (F) Dyke, Dam (1=yes;0=No) Irrigation and drainage stations (1=yea; 0=No) Number of tubewells

 Household Characteristics (H)

AgeEducationFarming experienceFamily sizeDistance to agri. product shopDistance to wholesale marketNumber of relativesPlot Characteristics (O) Soil type (loam, clay) Landform Saline Distance to home Province Dummy (R)

ROH

GDdoption

765

43210 FI)1APr(

Adoption of engineering measure

Adoption of non-engineering measures: farm management

Year type If normal year (1=Yes; 0=No) -0.0174 -0.571***Early warning information service Providing before disaster(1=yes;0=no) 0.128** 0.281*** Providing during/after disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.197*** 0.138** Capacity building Water User Association (1=yes;0=no) 0.319*** 0.117 Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=no) 0.0918 -0.0925 Attending training (1=yes;0=no) 0.222*** 0.128** Infrastructure Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no) 0.187** -0.606*** Having Dam(1=yes;0=no) 0.278** 0.454*** Number of irrigation and drainage irrigation stations -0.217*** 0.0810** Number of tubewells 0.000249 -0.000363Household characteristic Family size (persons) -0.0131 0.0300** Age (year) -0.00651 -0.00331 Farming experience (year) 0.00337 0.00689 Education (year) -0.00823 0.00853 Distance to agricultural product shop (km) 0.00734*** 0.00638** Distance to wholesale markets (km) -0.000288 -0.00654 Number of relatives 0.00506 0.0207***Plot characteristic Loam (1=loam;0=other) -0.223*** -0.00506 Clay (1=clay;0=other) -0.176** 0.083 Landform (1=Plain; 0=Mountain) 0.868*** -0.633*** Saline (1=yes;0=no) -0.0817 0.152* Distance to distance(km) 0.163*** 0.0816* Province Dummy Variables Not report Not reportPseudo R2 0.14 0.12

Econometric results on the determinants of adoption of adaptation measures

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Year Type and Early Warning Information Service

Adoption of engineering

measure

Adoption of non-engineering

measures: farm management

Year type

If normal year (1=yes; 0=no) -0.0047 -0.1768***

Early warning information service

Providing before disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.0425** 0.0922***

Providing during/after disaster (1=yes;0=no) 0.0685*** 0.0439**

Adoption of engineering

measure

Adoption of non-engineering

measures: farm management

Capacity building

Water user association (1=yes;0=no) 0.1110*** 0.0377

Attending training (1=yes;0=no) 0.0762*** 0.0407***

Irrigation infrastructure condition

Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no) 0.0686** -0.1594***

Having dam (1=yes;0=no) 0.0957** 0.1587***

Number of irrigation and drainage stations -0.0716 0.0252**

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: Capacity Building and Irrigation Infrastructure Condition

Adoption of engineering

measure

Adoption of non-engineering

measures: Farm management

Household characteristic

Family size(person) -0.0044 0.0093***

Education (year) -0.0021 0.0027**

Distance to wholesale markets (km) 0.0024*** 0.0019 Distance to agri. product shop (km) -0.0007 -0.0020***

Plot characteristics

Loam soil (1=loam;0=other) -0.0687*** -0.0016

Clay soil (1=clay;0=other) -0.0555** 0.0261

Landform(1=Plain; 0=Mountain) 0.2133*** -0.2292***

Saline land (1=yes;0=no) -0.0233 0.0493*

Distance to home (km) 0.0575*** 0.0254*

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation Measures: household and plot characteristics

Summary on the Adoption of Adaptation Measures

• In order to cope with drought, farmers, communities and government have made some responses by various engineering and non-engineering adaptation measures;

• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is influenced by the adaptation measures adopted by communities and government;

• Existing adaptation ability (e.g., irrigation infrastructure condition) also influences farmers’ behavior;

• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is also influenced by the characteristics of households and community.

Farmers’ Perception on the Climate Change

• How much percentage of farmers’ perception is right?

• What factors influence the correction of farmers’ perception?

Farmers’ Perception on Last Ten Years’ Temperature and Precipitation

Unknown3%

Increased72%

Decreased8%

Unchanged17%

Temperature

Unknown5%

Increased28%

Decreased47%

Unchanged20%

Precipitation

Correct16%

Wrong84%

Temperature

Correct56%

Wrong

44%

Precipitation

How Much Percentage of Farmers’ perceptions Is Correct?

Determinants of the Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Logit Econometric model

Policy (P) Early warning system Agricultural extension serviceSocial Capital (S) No. of relativesVillage Characteristics (V)

Whether the village is linked or scatteredLandform of the village (plain=1; hill=0)Soil type Whether irrigated by surface waterDistance to the closest road

 Household Characteristics (H)

AgeGenderEducationWhether household head is a village leaderOff-farm Family sizeFarm sizeTotal asset for productionTotal asset for livelihood

Province Dummies(R)

RVHSPCorrect 543210)1Pr(

Econometric results on the determinants of correction of farmers’ perception

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Policy Support and Social Capital

Temperature Precipitation

Government Policy Support

Early warning system(1=Yes;0=No)

0.042** -0.012

Agricultural extension service(1=Yes;0=No)

0.022** -0.049**

Social Capital

No. of relatives 0.021** -0.001

Temperature Precipitation

Household Characteristics

Age -0.001** -0.001

Education 0.040** 0.000

Off-farm (Percentage of off farm workers within a household)

-0.0002 -0.001**

Farm size (mu) 0.0005*** 0.005

Total asset for production (thousand RMB)

0.0004** 0.001**

Total asset for life (thousand RMB) -0.001*** -0.000

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Household Characteristics

Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’ Perception: Village Characteristics

Temperature Precipitation

Village Characteristics

Whether the village is linked or scattered (linked=1; scattered=0)

0.020* -0.040*

Landform of the village (plain=1; hill=0) -0.057*** -0.043*

Clay soil (clay=1; others=0) 0.017 -0.042*

Loam soil (loam=1; others=0) 0.037*** -0.030

Whether irrigated by surface water (yes=1; no=0)

0.009 -0.082***

Summary on Famers’ Perception on Climate Change

• Only a few percentage of farmers’ perception on temperature is correct and half of farmers’ perception on precipitation is correct;

• The correction of perception on temperature is significantly influenced by information and extension services provided by government, farmers’ social capital and some characteristics of households and communities;

• The correction of perception on precipitation is mainly influenced by some characteristics of households and communities.

Presentation

• Project goals and objectives

• Research design and data

• Preliminary findings

– Adaptation measures and determinants

– Farmers’ perception on climate change and

determinants

• Research plan

Research Plan

Obj. 1: Finish literature review on climate change

and water

Obj. 2: Continue to conduct empirical analysis on

the adoption of adaptation measures.

Obj. 3: Conduct relevant surveys and finish analysis

(both empirical analysis and modelling simulation)

• Welcome and thank you for your comments!

• CCAP’s website: www.ccap.org.cn