Water for 2060: Preparing for the Next Drought Drought Outlook, Impacts, and Resources Veva Deheza Regional Drought Information Coordinator NOAA - National Integrated Drought Information System National Drought itgJo n Center NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SY7777
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Water for 2060: Preparing for the Next Drought
Drought Outlook, Impacts, and Resources
Veva Deheza Regional Drought Information Coordinator NOAA - National Integrated Drought Information System
National Drought itgJo n Center
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SY7777
Outline
• Current Conditions and Seasonal Drought Outlook • Oklahoma's Drought History • Related concerns highlighted in the forthcoming
National Climate Assessment Great Plains chapter* Expected Climate Changes
• Drought Impacts • Drought Monitoring & Preparedness Resources • New Opportunities for Drought Research
* The NCA is not yet finalized; the information here is from the DRAFT released for public comment last winter.
U.S. Drought Monitor October 15, 2013 (Released Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013)
The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale condkiona Local conditions may vary See accompanying text summary for forecast statement&
Author: Richard Tinke r CPC/NO AAIN WS/N CEP
USDA
http :lid rou ghtmo nitor.0 ni. edui
deri• De cts -scale trends Paseo' lono-ra ce szatist:r2a1an vnarrJca fcreca
nr,ot be accuratey orecast more than a fc'da such - that can t e affected b' such even
crcxmatec from the rcucht ri; -
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pro ..ementi remain.
,e period :DC or rene,
KE) Persistence-
Drought persists or intensifies
Author: Adam Allgood. Climate Prediction Center. tIOAA http:;Ivp...,.v.cpc.ncep.noaa.gcv'products.'expert_assessment!season uaht.html
U.S. Seasonat Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid for October 17. 2013 - January 31. 2014 Released October 17 2013
Persistence
mprdtiement— Pi_
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Removal
—= Development
Developmen tio Drought
\Posted!'Predictefa
Removal
Improvement
• s-n, o
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a d an cc. cauton _ations
ncnc roucht areas are
r %wekly o:rcuont u.pdates. the !atest ;Li Drought development N07:2: The tan area areas mp at ca likely intensity levels by the end of the per
The Green areas in-:ply- draucht rerno
Drought remains but improves
Drought removal likely
THREE—MONTH OUTLOOK TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY 0.5 MONTH LEAD VALID NDJ 2033 MADE 17 OCT 2013
EC MEANS EQUAL CHANCES roR A, N, A MEANS ABOVE N MEANS NORMAL
(B MEANS BELOW
THREE—MONTH OUTLOOK PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY 0.5 MONTH LEAD VALID NDJ 2013 MADE 17 OCT 2013
EC MEANS EQUAL CHANCES FOR A* N A MEANS ABOVE N MEANS NORMAL B MEANS BELOW
Narrafv'c
c lt Area
Statisr..ic e Serie:
i) 4 (402) q2-2946 I Contact Us PO. Sox 83ii088 Linak, NO3131*-0988
To zoom tr r. rag the •j1c- ic any,.
DO-D4 x:2013/10/15, y:58.17%
D1-D4 x:2013110/15, y:36.85‘)/
D2-D4 x:2013/10/15, y:14.90%
D3-D4 x:2013/10115, y:4.42%
1111 D4 x:2013/10/15, y:1.45%
0
The National National Drought Mitigation Center 13310 Holdrege Street 1 P.O. Box 830988 I Lin 'phone: (402)472-6707 I fax (402) 472-2946 Contact Us
Statistics Tire Series Narrative
West Percent Area
To zoom in, click dhck and drag the cursor. To return to the full time series, doubie-click anywhere in the chart. DO-D4 x:2002/07/23, y:89.48%
D1-D4 x:2002/07/23, y:79.32%
D2-D4 x:2002/07/23, y:60.90%
D3-D4 x:2002/07/23, y:45.26%
D4 x:2002/07/23, y:13.63%
Copyright 2013 National Drought Mitigation Center
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41
44
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40
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36
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28 ++
26
24 •
Annual Precipitation History with 5-year Tendencies Oklahoma Statewide: 1895-2012
' Netter periods Drier periods
• Annual precipitation 3Iue
52
46
46
44
42
40
38
3R
Long-term erape
3:3.Er2'
32
Oklahoma's Drought History
50
45
40
23
( OKLAHOMA
Normal Annual Precipitation
27.0 22.5
22.5
25.3 MENEMet
Total Evaporation Summer 2003-2012
26.4
23.5 26 . 8 28.8
27.2
27.3
26.4
27.0 26, 28.5 25.5
26.3 26.1 26.3
25.7 27
.8 -
27.2 28.6
25.7
28.0
A 26.0
25.4
33
10 ,
9 27.1 31 E
. '2-1 4 7 26.4
Most Rainfall in Western Oklahoma is Evaporated
Normal Annual Precipitation, 1981-2010
Total Evaporation, Summer 2003-2012
Expected Climate Changes
• Wetter in the northern Plains, drier in the southern Plains • More frequent and intense droughts, severe rainfall events,
heat waves — Driven by higher evapotranspiration rates
• What we see as a hot week now will become a hot month — Annual average of about 7 days over 102 degrees; projected to
become 35-40 days by mid-century
• Frost-free season extended average 24 days by mid-century — More over-wintering pests
— Shorter grazing time on winter wheat
Changes in extremes
Heaest D
kg
Climate Change = More Dry Days
• "Current regional trends of a drier south and wetter north are projected to become more pronounced, compared to observed 1971 to 2000 averages"
National Climate Assessment (2013)
Projected Change
wer Emissions (31)
Higher Emissions (A2)
Projected change in number of
consecutive days with precipitation less
than 0.1 inch
Dry Days
Key Messages (Great Plains) Rising temperatures are lee- ding to increased demand fc water and energy. In parts of the region, this will cons- development, stress natur7,- resources, and increase
competition for water among communities, agriculture, energy production, and
ecological needs.
Changes to crop growth cycles due to warming winters and alterations in the timing and
magnitude of rainfall events are already observed; as these trends continue, they will
require new agriculture and livestock management practices.
• Landscape fragmentation is increasing, for example, in the context of energy
development activities in the northern Great Plains. A highly fragmented landscape will
hinder adaptation of species when climate change alters habitat composition and
timing of plant development cycles.
Communities that are already the most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes
will be stressed even further by more frequent extreme events occurring within an
already highly variable climate system.
• The magnitude of expected changes will exceed those experienced in the last century.
Existing adaptation and planning efforts are inadequate to respond to these projected
impacts.
Challenges to Irrigation
• Little recharge in southern part of High Plains Aquifer
• Irrigation becoming more costly
• Higher evaporation rates deplete surface water supplies
• More competition for water
The 2010 -? Drought January 2011
April 2011
July 2011
October 2011
January 2012
April 2012
July 2012
October 2012
January 2013
April 2013
July 2013
October 2013
2011 Southern Drought Impacts
• At least $12B in crop and livestock losses
• Lowest cattle inventory in decades
• Record low water supply
• Most severe wildfires in Texas, New Mexico History
• Infrastructure: cracked pavement, foundations, water main breaks — 700 a day in Houston at peak
• 100-500 million trees killed (Texas Forest Service estimate)
• In Mexico, 2.5M people in 1,500 communities lacked drinking water
SHORT-TERM- INTERANNUAL- DECADE-TO-Seasonal Multi-year CENTURY
National Integrated Drought Information System
2000-2004 drought in the Colorado Basin
"No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within the United States exists today" Western
Governors Association 2004
DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
What goes NIDIS Do?
NIDIS shall provide an effective drought early warning system that-
• collects and integrates information on the key indicators of drought in order to make usable, reliable, and timely forecasts of drought;
• provides such information, forecasts, and assessments on both national and regional levels;
• communicates drought forecasts, drought conditions, and drought impacts on an ongoing basis to decision-makers;
MTEGRATED SYSTEM
NIDIS • provides timely data, information, and
products that reflect local, regional, and State differences in drought conditions;
• coordinates, and integrates as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system;
• builds upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships; and
• continues ongoing research activities related to drought, including research activities relating to length, severity, and impacts of drought and the role of extreme weather events and climate variability in drought
Integrated
Monitoring and Forecasting
Interdisciplinary Needs Assess.,
Research,
Applications
U.S. Drought Portal
Public Awareness
And Education
Engaging
Preparedness
Communities
NIDIS Technica Working Groups
Regional Drought Early
Warning Systems
NIDIS Implementation Over 50 Federal, state,
tribal and private sector representatives
nationally
NRCS, USGS River Forecast Center, BoR Climate Prediction Center
USDA
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
Regional Climate Centers NCAR
NCDC NDMC-NOAA,USGS, USDA,
USBoR
State Climatologists, NWS- CSD
USDA Extension
NDMC State and Tribal Offices,
RISAs US BoR, USAGE, Counties
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Regions in the US where NIDIS is currently engaging with stakeholders
Mis ouri Basin of DEWS
in development
Chesapeake Bay Pilot DEWS
in development California
Pilot DEWS
\
/ Upper Colorado
River Basin DEWS
and
Four Corners
Pilot DEWS Carolinas Coastal Ecosystems
Pilot DEWS Southern Plains
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Pilot DEWS
Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin
>".■ ,GLIA
Regional Drought Early Warning Information
System
US Drought Portal Education/Communication
NA{1QNA1 IMEIZ217C9 INFORMA339h SYSTEM
Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems
tilonitoring/Forecasts
asse4' Engaging Preparedness
Comm. Research and Applications
USDA
US Army Corps of Engineers.
Water Resources: Federal Partnerships (States, Tribes, Urban, other)
Entry points for proactive Planning-triggers and indicators
virj 3eyond npact Assess, ants (and F ports)
Recovery
e con struction
Recovery
Impact
Assessm ent
Response
The Cycle of Disaster Management
Planning
M itigation
Disaster
P rotection
Monitoring
and Prediction
Engagement: Drought Mitigation and Planning • Partnered with NOAA, NIDIS, NDMC,
CLIMAS, AASC
• Hosted forums, workshops, and webinars
• Held over 28 drought briefings -
available on SCIPP's website and
YouTube (over 1,800 views on
YouTube)
• Promote planning and preparation
• Conducting research into how
extended drought has impacted lives
and economy
nrs-,;,-.1=ionmanzam-.T EMUS Oa
Z7.1-%t A PlaAra
3, 2013
Outlook & Assessment {orums
• In-person meetings (Austin, Fort Worth, Lubbock, Abilene, Goodwell)
• Evolution, current conditions & outlooks
• Panel discussions of impacts & management strategies
• Outcomes: — Improved communication
— More guidance on product interpretation
— Explanation of causes
Webinar Series • Bi-weekly (now monthly)
• Overview of regional drought
conditions and outlook — led by the Drought Monitor authors
IN THE SOUTHS1111-- -PLAINS
lost are inched to join us in a hi-sveeld— ‘vehitur 'Web-based seminar:. series to discuss drought condSdans and resources available to help manage droughtin the Sosn .,..na Pains '
Tese unite= 2 es, audience soothe has respontthty to manage or assist others in managing draught and its related impacts.
If you would like to join in these webinars, you need to register via the SCIPP webrite xEss-w•,..• rut:mg or e-mail acipie Registrar:or is nee but limited to 100 participants, so pirate register early Each webiasar will last about 20 minutes, plus additional time for clue:lions. You will be provided with a link to the webinar and a toll-thee phone line to call in_
utberso. ianning
ptelwww, 5-373-254 • Discussion Topic
— Mix of technical and sector-specific information
— Presenters from multiple states, organizations
• Comments & Updates from State
Climatologists
• Recordings posted on YouTube
Each webinar will include an overview of the current drought assessment and oudook, summary of impacts across the region, and a topic or resource, caches La Niiia or wildfire conditions. Yost will have an opportunity to suggest topics for fallowing webinars. The primary focus is in the outer most heavily impacted friscs the current drought - Texas, Oklahoma arc Ness- Mexico — but partiripa ti from surrounding states is encorrzged_
The webinar series is sponsored by a partnership of the National Integrated Drought Information System f:NTDIS'j, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ".'.,;0A-.4U, No*onal Drought Mitigation Center, Southern Climate Inspects Program, Climate Assesanent for the Southwest, and the region 's
State Clint
information from the webinars will be posted on a website linked through Isups/iwww.nouther,c: :.se•.org and summarized in an online newsletter, Drought Tracker Please pass cat this anr-xancenserx to relative organizations or groups that are involved in managing or monitoring drought and its related impacts.
Lu Nudes
Cattle LiVentoc;
ti.S.::Dxonglitz Mon
Isisiptict
• %*Cirroz•SuPply •.
Rondo Throirgilst
Drought Rrssdy C Areiculturn I Imp.
http://www.southernclimate.org
Status and Introduction
Flash Drought
La Nina
Cattle & Livestock
Water Resources
Seasonal Forecasting
Wildfire
U.S. Drought Monitor
Wildlife
Water Resources
Then and Now
Agriculture & Livestock
Public Health
El Nino
Early Spring Outlook
F--% IV h.) Ln 0 Ul C Ul
0 0 0 0 0 0
2 C 3 a. -"c
a
rut CD
sa,)
CD
U.S. Drought Portal - www.drought.gov
■ Provide early warning about emerging and anticipated droughts
■ Provide information about risk and impact of droughts to different agencies and stakeholders
■ Provide information about past droughts for comparison and to understand current conditions
■ Explain how to plan for and manage the impacts of drou:hts
net P.O. Box 83 ntlt Mitigation Center 331
6 Month SPI for September 2011 3 Month SPI for September 1954
Drought Risk Atlas (DRA):
Partnershi with USDA, NOAA/NIDIS and HPRCC
3000 stations archived • 139 clusters/regions
developed and analyzed • SPI, SPEI, PDSI, sc-PDSI and
Deciles through 2012
Welcome to the Drought Risk Atlas
introduction
Climate Ddt, KAP
• Weekly gridded maps available back to early 1900s
•
• Created to answer questions about the characteristics of drought: